Jonathan David Ostry's Books

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

By: Mr. Pragyan Deb,Davide Furceri,Daniel Jimenez,Siddharth Kothari,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Nour Tawk

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Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

By: Mr. Pragyan Deb,Davide Furceri,Daniel Jimenez,Siddharth Kothari,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Nour Tawk

This paper examines empirically the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. We assemble a comprehensive and novel cross-country database at a daily frequency on vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for the period December 16, 2020-June 20, 2021. Using this data, we find that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1589063155

ISBN 13

9781589063150

The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

By: Mr. Pragyan Deb,Davide Furceri,Daniel Jimenez,Siddharth Kothari,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Nour Tawk

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The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity

By: Mr. Pragyan Deb,Davide Furceri,Daniel Jimenez,Siddharth Kothari,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Nour Tawk

This paper empirically examines the economic effects of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts using a cross-country daily database of vaccinations and high frequency indicators of economic activity—nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions, carbon monoxide (CO) emissions, and Google mobility indices—for a sample of 46 countries over the period December 16, 2020 to June 20, 2021. Using surprises in vaccines administered, we find that an unexpected increase in vaccination per capita is associated with a significant increase in economic activity. We also find evidence for non-linear effects of vaccines, with the marginal economic benefits being larger when vaccination rates are higher. Country-specific conditions play an important role, with lower economic gains if strict containment measures are in place or if the country is experiencing a severe outbreak. Finally, the results provide evidence of spillovers across borders, highlighting the importance of equitable access to vaccines across nations.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1589063767

ISBN 13

9781589063761

Shipping Costs and Inflation

By: Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow,Mr. Pragyan Deb,Davide Furceri,Daniel Jimenez,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry

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Shipping Costs and Inflation

By: Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow,Mr. Pragyan Deb,Davide Furceri,Daniel Jimenez,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains, leading to shipment delays and soaring shipping costs. We study the impact of shocks to global shipping costs—measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)—on domestic prices for a large panel of countries during the period 1992-2021. We find that spikes in the BDI are followed by sizable and statistically significant increases in import prices, PPI, headline, and core inflation, as well as inflation expectations. The impact is similar in magnitude but more persistent than for shocks to global oil and food prices. The effects are more muted in countries where imports make up a smaller share of domestic consumption, and those with inflation targeting regimes and better anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to several checks, including an instrumental variables approach in which we instrument changes in shipping costs with an indicator of closures of the Suez Canal.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400204685

Shifting Motives

Explaining the Buildup in official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980's

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides

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Shifting Motives

Explaining the Buildup in official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980's

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides

Why have emerging market economies (EMEs) been stockpiling international reserves? We find that motives have varied over time?vulnerability to current account shocks was relatively important in the 1980s but, as EMEs have become more financially integrated, factors related to the magnitude of potential capital outflows have gained in importance. Reserve accumulation as a by-product of undervalued currencies has also become more important since the Asian crisis. Correspondingly, using quantile regressions, we find that the reason for holding reserves varies according to the country's position in the global reserves distribution. High reserve holders, who tend to be more financially integrated, are motivated by insurance against capital account rather than current account shocks, and are more sensitive to the cost of holding reserves than are low-reserve holders. Currency undervaluation is a significant determinant across the reserves distribution, albeit for different reasons.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1463933193

ISBN 13

9781463933197

When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza

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When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Raphael A. Espinoza

What considerations should guide public debt policy going forward? Should debt be reduced to achieve normative anchors (such as 60 percent of GDP), should it be increased further to finance a big public investment push, or should the existing debt be serviced forever? We argue that, for countries with ample fiscal space (little risk of encountering a fiscal crisis), raising distortive taxes merely to bring the debt down is a treatment cure that is worse than the disease. High public debt of course is costly, but it is a sunk cost only made worse by efforts to pay down the debt through distortionary taxation. Living with the debt is the welfare-maximizing policy. In decisions vis-à-vis the big push for public investment, golden-rule considerations remain salient, with due account taken of the additional servicing costs (and associated distortive taxation) from the resulting buildup of public debt.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513505319

ISBN 13

9781513505312

Corporate Investment and the Real Exchange Rate

By: Mai Chi Dao,Ms.Camelia Minoiu,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

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Corporate Investment and the Real Exchange Rate

By: Mai Chi Dao,Ms.Camelia Minoiu,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

We examine the relationship between real exchange rate depreciations and indicators of firm performance using data for a sample of more than 30,000 firms from 66 (advanced and emerging market) countries over the 2000-2011 period. We show that depreciations boost profits, investment, and sales of firms that are more financially-constrained and have higher labor shares. These findings are consistent with the view that depreciations boost internal financing opportunities by reducing real wages, thereby spurring investment. We show that these effects on firm performance are enduring, including in the market valuation of firms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484313747

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9781484313749

Retaliation Through Temporary Trade Barriers

By: Davide Furceri,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Mr. Chris Papageorgiou,Pauline Wibaux

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Retaliation Through Temporary Trade Barriers

By: Davide Furceri,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Mr. Chris Papageorgiou,Pauline Wibaux

Are Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) introduced for strategic reasons? To answer this question, we construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation using daily bilateral data on TTB responses in 1220 subsectors across a panel of 25 advanced and emerging market economies over 1989-2019. Stylized facts and econometric analysis suggest that within-year responses are more important in terms of intensity and frequency than commonly understood from the existing literature, which has tended to ignore them. We find that retaliation often consists of responses across many sectors and that same-sector retaliation is far from being the norm. In addition, we find that larger countries tend to retaliate more, and that retaliation is larger during periods of higher unemployment and when the trading partner targeted a domestic comparative advantage sector.

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ISBN 13

9798400241109

Managing the Tide

How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows?

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,MissMahvash S Qureshi

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Managing the Tide

How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows?

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,MissMahvash S Qureshi

This paper examines whether—and how—emerging market economies (EMEs) respond to capital flows to mitigate their untoward consequences. Based on a sample of about 50 EMEs over 2005Q1–2013Q4, we find that EME policy makers respond proactively to capital inflows by using a combination of policy tools: central banks raise the policy interest rate to address economic overheating concerns; intervene in the foreign exchange market to resist currency appreciation pressures; tighten macroprudential measures to dampen credit growth; and deploy capital inflow controls in the face of competitiveness and financial-stability concerns. Contrary to conventional policy advice to EMEs, we find no evidence of counter-cyclical fiscal policy in the face of capital inflows. Overall, policies are more likely to respond, and used in combination, during inflow surges than in more normal times.

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ISBN 10

1475589220

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9781475589221

Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides

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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Stability of the International Monetary System

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Charalambos G. Tsangarides

The member countries of the International Monetary Fund collaborate to try to assure orderly exchange arrangements and promote a stable system of exchange rates, recognizing that the essential purpose of the international monetary system is to facilitate the exchange of goods, services, and capital, and to sustain sound economic growth. The paper reviews the stability of the overall system of exchange rates by examining macroeconomic performance (inflation, growth, crises) under alternative exchange rate regimes; implications of exchange rate regime choice for interaction with the rest of the system (external adjustment, trade integration, capital flows); and potential sources of stress to the international monetary system.

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1589069315

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9781589069312

Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh

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Obstacles to International Policy Coordination, and How to Overcome Them

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh

In bilateral and multilateral surveillance, countries are often urged to consider alternative policies that would result in superior outcomes for the country itself and, perhaps serendipitously, for the world economy. While it is possible that policy makers in the country do not fully recognize the benefits of proposed alternative policies, it is also possible that the existing policies are the best that they can deliver, given their various constraints, including political. In order for the policy makers to be able and willing to implement the better policies some quid pro quo may be required—such as a favorable policy adjustment in the recipients of the spillovers; identifying such mutually beneficial trades is the essence of international policy coordination. We see four general guideposts in terms of the search for globally desirable solutions. First, all parties need to identify the nature of spillovers from their policies and be open to making adjustments to enhance net positive spillovers in exchange for commensurate benefits from others; but second, with countries transparent about the spillovers as they see them, an honest broker is likely to be needed to scrutinize the different positions, given the inherent biases at the country level. Third, given the need for policy agendas to be multilaterally consistent, special scrutiny is needed when policies exacerbate global imbalances and currency misalignments; and fourth, by the same token, special scrutiny is also needed when one country’s policies has a perceptible adverse impact on financial-stability risks elsewhere.

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1475525184

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9781475525182

Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Anton Korinek

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Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Anton Korinek

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.

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ISBN 10

1475596359

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9781475596359

Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Alessandro Prati,Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo

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Structural Reforms and Economic Performance in Advanced and Developing Countries

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Alessandro Prati,Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo

This volume examines the impact on economic performance of structural policies-policies that increase the role of market forces and competition in the economy, while maintaining appropriate regulatory frameworks. The results reflect a new dataset covering reforms of domestic product markets, international trade, the domestic financial sector, and the external capital account, in 91 developed and developing countries. Among the key results of this study, the authors find that real and financial reforms (and, in particular, domestic financial liberalization, trade liberalization, and agricultural liberalization) boost income growth. However, growth effects differ significantly across alternative reform sequencing strategies: a trade-before-capital-account strategy achieves better outcomes than the reverse, or even than a "big bang"; also, liberalizing the domestic financial sector together with the external capital account is growth-enhancing, provided the economy is relatively open to international trade. Finally, relatively liberalized domestic financial sectors enhance the economy's resilience, reducing output costs from adverse terms-of-trade and interest-rate shocks; increased credit availability is one of the key mechanisms.

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ISBN 10

1589068181

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9781589068186

Two Targets, Two Instruments

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Marcos Chamon

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Two Targets, Two Instruments

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Market Economies

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Marcos Chamon

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1475554281

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9781475554281

Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth

A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

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Selective Government Interventions and Economic Growth

A Survey of the Asian Experience and its Applicability to New Zealand

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

Since the mid-1980s, New Zealand has been engaged in a broad-ranging economic reform program--involving liberalization of key sectors of the economy, reduction in trade protection, and trimming of the public sector--in order to restructure its economy and stimulate growth. With growth performance having been rather lackluster in recent years, questions have been raised as to whether a more interventionist approach--such as that followed by some Asian countries--might be warranted in order to place the economy on a higher growth path. A review of the empirical literature dealing with the experience of the dynamic Asian economies does not suggest that their success can be attributed to any significant degree to selective government interventions.

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1451965389

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9781451965384

A Tie That Binds

Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies

By: Mr.Maurice Obstfeld,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,MissMahvash S Qureshi

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A Tie That Binds

Revisiting the Trilemma in Emerging Market Economies

By: Mr.Maurice Obstfeld,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,MissMahvash S Qureshi

This paper examines the claim that exchange rate regimes are of little salience in the transmission of global financial conditions to domestic financial and macroeconomic conditions by focusing on a sample of about 40 emerging market countries over 1986–2013. Our findings show that exchange rate regimes do matter. Countries with fixed exchange rate regimes are more likely to experience financial vulnerabilities—faster domestic credit and house price growth, and increases in bank leverage—than those with relatively flexible regimes. The transmission of global financial shocks is likewise magnified under fixed exchange rate regimes relative to more flexible (though not necessarily fully flexible) regimes. We attribute this to both reduced monetary policy autonomy and a greater sensitivity of capital flows to changes in global conditions under fixed rate regimes.

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1484303946

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9781484303948

Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

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Do Capital Flows Reflect Economic Fundamentals in Developing Countries?

By: Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

This paper proposes a methodology for testing whether capital flows to developing countries are determined by economic fundamentals or by purely speculative forces. We use the intertemporal optimizing approach to current account determination as our benchmark for judging the behavior of capital flows. According to this approach, capital flows should act as a buffer to smooth consumption in the face of temporary shocks to national cash flow, defined as output less investment less government expenditures. The results are encouraging. For a large sample of developing countries, economic fundamentals are indeed found to be the most important determinant of capital flows.

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1451978820

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9781451978827

Boosting Fiscal Space

The Roles of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Jun I. Kim

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Boosting Fiscal Space

The Roles of GDP-Linked Debt and Longer Maturities

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Jun I. Kim

Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.

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1484330935

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9781484330937

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

By: Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

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The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

By: Davide Furceri,Mr.Prakash Loungani,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country- and industry-level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality—that is, they pose an equity–efficiency trade-off. Behind this average lies considerable heterogeneity in effects depending on country characteristics. Liberalization increases output in countries with high financial depth and those that avoid financial crises, while distributional effects are more pronounced in countries with low financial depth and inclusion and where liberalization is followed by a crisis. Difference-indifference estimates using sectoral data suggest that liberalization episodes reduce the share of labor income, particularly for industries with higher external financial dependence, those with a higher natural propensity to use layoffs to adjust to idiosyncratic shocks, and those with a higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. The sectoral results underpin a causal interpretation of the findings using macro data.

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ISBN 10

1484350898

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9781484350898

Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry

By: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

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Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment in East European Industry

By: Mr.Eduardo Borensztein,Mr.Jonathan David Ostry

A consistent set of disaggregated industrial output data for four Eastern European countries is examined In order to determine the extent to which structural adjustment has taken place since the initiation of market-oriented reform. The latter created a massive relative price shock whose affects on the structure of the industrial sectors of these economies is shown to have been relatively small, at least one to two years after the reforms. An implication is that one argument in favor of more gradualist reform—based on the premise that more gradualism implies a smaller output cost in the short run—is questionable. By and large in these economies, the output cost associated with the removal of relative price distortions may still have to be faced.

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1451955502

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9781451955507

Confronting Inequality

How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth

By: Jonathan David Ostry,Prakash Loungani,Andrew Berg

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Confronting Inequality

How Societies Can Choose Inclusive Growth

By: Jonathan David Ostry,Prakash Loungani,Andrew Berg

Three International Monetary Fund economists show that the increase in inequality has been a political choice--and explain what policies we should choose instead to achieve a more inclusive economy. Confronting Inequality is a rigorous and empirically rich book that is crucial for a time when many fear a new Gilded Age.

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173

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0231174683

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9780231174688

Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Anton Korinek

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Multilateral Aspects of Managing the Capital Account

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Atish R. Ghosh,Mr.Anton Korinek

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1475510071

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9781475510072

Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Charalambos G Tsangarides

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Redistribution, Inequality, and Growth

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Charalambos G Tsangarides

The Fund has recognized in recent years that one cannot separate issues of economic growth and stability on one hand and equality on the other. Indeed, there is a strong case for considering inequality and an inability to sustain economic growth as two sides of the same coin. Central to the Fund’s mandate is providing advice that will enable members’ economies to grow on a sustained basis. But the Fund has rightly been cautious about recommending the use of redistributive policies given that such policies may themselves undercut economic efficiency and the prospects for sustained growth (the so-called “leaky bucket” hypothesis written about by the famous Yale economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s). This SDN follows up the previous SDN on inequality and growth by focusing on the role of redistribution. It finds that, from the perspective of the best available macroeconomic data, there is not a lot of evidence that redistribution has in fact undercut economic growth (except in extreme cases). One should be careful not to assume therefore—as Okun and others have—that there is a big tradeoff between redistribution and growth. The best available macroeconomic data do not support such a conclusion.

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1484352076

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9781484352076

Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew Berg

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Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?

By: Mr.Jonathan David Ostry,Mr.Andrew Berg

This note raises the IMF’s profile on a number of issues related to inequality, unemployment, governance, etc. It builds on earlier empirical work that examined correlations between growth downbreaks/duration of growth spells and a range of macro/policy/institutional factors. This paper is designed to be more accessible, more policy oriented, and focused squarely on the issue of inequality and the sustainability of growth. It will reference the literature that has gained prominence in the wake of the global crisis, and the possible links between the crisis and rising inequality in countries at the epicenter of the crisis. The analytical findings will also be connected to real world policy narratives in certain countries, to provide texture to the results and enhance policy relevance. The paper will argue that, based on the empirical findings, more equality in the income distribution is associated with longer-lived growth spells. Broad redistributive policies are not necessarily pro-growth, however, as these can have strong disincentive effects. The paper’s policy discussion is appropriately cautious, therefore, offering only tentative ideas, for example, active labor market policies and more attention to human capital investments designed to avoid conflicts between efficiency and equity perspectives.

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1616355301

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9781616355302

Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization

By: Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr. Paolo Mauro,Mr. André Faria,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Julian di Giovanni,Mr. Martin Schindler,Mr. M. Ayhan Kose,Mr. Marco Terrones

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Reaping the Benefits of Financial Globalization

By: Mr. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia,Mr. Paolo Mauro,Mr. André Faria,Mr. Jonathan David Ostry,Julian di Giovanni,Mr. Martin Schindler,Mr. M. Ayhan Kose,Mr. Marco Terrones

Financial globalization has increased dramatically over the past three decades, particularly for advanced economies, while emerging market and developing countries experienced more moderate increases. Divergences across countries stem from different capital control regimes, and factors such as institutional quality and domestic financial development. Although, in principle, financial globalization should enhance international risk sharing, reduce macroeconomic volatility, and foster economic growth, in practice its effects are less clear-cut. This paper envisages a gradual and orderly sequencing of external financial liberalization and complementary reforms in macroeconomic policy framework as essential components of a successful liberalization strategy.

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1451944349

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9781451944341

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