Objective Bayesianism is a methodological theory that is currently applied in statistics, philosophy, artificial intelligence, physics and other sciences. This book develops the formal and philosophical foundations of the theory, at a level accessible to a graduate student with some familiarity with mathematical notation.
Inductive logic is a theory of how one should reason in the face of uncertainty. It has applications to decision making and artificial intelligence, as well as to scientific problems.
God is the silent partner in all great enterprises." -- Abraham Lincoln "In the months before our wedding, I searched the shelves of my favorite bookstores for a wedding book that I never found: A book that would celebrate my joy and acknowledge my fears. A book that would be a silent friend that wouldn't overwhelm me with week-by-week checklists and endless pictures of table settings. . . . I knew that before I began organizing the most important event of my life, I needed to organize my heart." Inviting God to Your Wedding is not just about planning for an event. It's about preparing for a miracle. Written with honesty, wisdom, and humor by Touched By An Angel Executive Producer Martha Williamson, with a special chapter for men by her husband and Co-Executive Producer Jon Andersen, this inspiring book is a "wedding handbook" for your spirit and your soul. Funny, thought-provoking, and thoroughly useful, it is filled with ideas, suggestions, and commonsense advice that focus on the most important aspect of every wedding: the coming together of a man and a woman "in the sight of God." From wedding showers to the wedding night, this personal workbook will help create a three-way partnership with God from the start, one that will sustain couples in times of crisis as well as triumph and joy. Inviting God to Your Wedding will become an encouraging handbook of comfort, and celebration in the weeks and months before your wedding, and a treasured book of memories throughout your marriage. From the Hardcover edition.
This book is open access under a CC BY license. This book is the first to develop explicit methods for evaluating evidence of mechanisms in the field of medicine. It explains why it can be important to make this evidence explicit, and describes how to take such evidence into account in the evidence appraisal process. In addition, it develops procedures for seeking evidence of mechanisms, for evaluating evidence of mechanisms, and for combining this evaluation with evidence of association in order to yield an overall assessment of effectiveness. Evidence-based medicine seeks to achieve improved health outcomes by making evidence explicit and by developing explicit methods for evaluating it. To date, evidence-based medicine has largely focused on evidence of association produced by clinical studies. As such, it has tended to overlook evidence of pathophysiological mechanisms and evidence of the mechanisms of action of interventions. The book offers a useful guide for all those whose work involves evaluating evidence in the health sciences, including those who need to determine the effectiveness of health interventions and those who need to ascertain the effects of environmental exposures.
This volume contends that Evidential Pluralism—an account of the epistemology of causation, which maintains that in order to establish a causal claim one needs to establish the existence of a correlation and the existence of a mechanism—can be fruitfully applied to the social sciences. Through case studies in sociology, economics, political science and law, it advances new philosophical foundations for causal enquiry in the social sciences. The book provides an account of how to establish and evaluate causal claims and it offers a new way of thinking about evidence-based policy, basic social science research and mixed methods research. As such, it will appeal to scholars with interests in social science research and methodology, the philosophy of science and evidence-based policy.
While probabilistic logics in principle might be applied to solve a range of problems, in practice they are rarely applied - perhaps because they seem disparate, complicated, and computationally intractable. This programmatic book argues that several approaches to probabilistic logic fit into a simple unifying framework in which logically complex evidence is used to associate probability intervals or probabilities with sentences. Specifically, Part I shows that there is a natural way to present a question posed in probabilistic logic, and that various inferential procedures provide semantics for that question, while Part II shows that there is the potential to develop computationally feasible methods to mesh with this framework. The book is intended for researchers in philosophy, logic, computer science and statistics. A familiarity with mathematical concepts and notation is presumed, but no advanced knowledge of logic or probability theory is required.
Physical fitness is not only one of the most importantkeys to a healthy body; it is the basis of dynamic andcreative intellectual activity. John F. KennedyIt is a well-established fact that we depend on our fitnessand good health to lead a long and productive life. In ourchildhood, we feel invincible, and often think that way. Sohow can we protect our good health as we get older - inorder to maximize our productivity and enjoyment of life?Have any of the following questions ever occurred to you? Is there a secret to losing weight and/or buildingmuscle mass? Is there a secret to maintaining your body size/shape when you get it to where you want it? Is there a health or fitness secret that would helpyou that is not being shared?The answers to these and many other questions lie insidethe pages of this book. The Celebrity Experts who authoredthis book have been through many of the same phases thatyou have gone through - in their quest for answers.These Celebrity Experts share their expertise and knowledgeof mindset, nutrition and fitness to assist you in yourquest for better health and an improved body. These menand women have been guiding and training others likeyourself to attain the level you aspire to - to be the best thatyou can be - to use a familiar term.This book is called The FIT Formula for a reason. Here is anopportunity to finally come to terms with your long-term goal.In the immortal words of an unknown author - we must ...COMMIT TO BE FIT!
Second edition of The Bloody Vendetta of Southern Illinois covering the deadly family feuds and Ku Klux Klan activities during the decade following the Civil War that took place in the heart of Southern Illinois, particularly focused in the counties of Franklin, Jackson and Williamson. Milo Erwin wrote the first major account of the Vendetta during its immediate aftermath in 1876 as part of his History of Williamson County, Illinois. Now, Jon Musgrave takes Erwin's account and expands upon it with additional material from surrounding counties and further research into the characters who left such a mark on the region.
All money earned from this ebook by the publisher and authors will go to Chest Heart and Stroke Scotland.Collected are 17 tales of terror, from writers, old and new.Find out what lies inside the trinket box.Will O'Hare and Callaghan uncover the secret of the Great Australian Vampyre, or will the secret devour them?Find out how some can be haunted by the living themselves.A book full of sentient rubbish, time travel, murder, ghouls, murderers, funerals and...oh yes, lots of ghosts.Featuring tales by Duncan Lunan, Neil Williamson, Jo Thomas, Ian Hunter, M.J. Steel Collins, Marco Piva, Jon Arnold, Kevin Biggs, Michael S. Collins, Dan Barratt, Thomas Jordan, Paul Gill, Jenny Shirt, Ana Prundaru, Jim Steel, Vaughan Stanger and Gavin Inglis."There they were. Footsteps coming up behind him. Light footstep. Children perhaps, but why would children be out on a night like this? Laughing children. Glanced around in every angle. No tell tale shadows. Just the sound. Of threatening feet. Chasing feet. Running footsteps. He was in no doubt though. Children. Many children. Running. Running after him! Light and fast. Gaining on him. His heart pounded. He tasted fear. Knots in the stomach. A cold sweat. Breathing issues. He turned and ran. He wasn't sure what he was running from. He ran as fast as he could. As if, his life depended on it. From every angle, he heard the footsteps chasing after him.Henry ran. Between streets he'd know well in better light and weather. Didn't know where he was. Still he could hear the footsteps. Directly behind him. In front of him. All around.
The Standard Oil Company emerged out of obscurity in the 1860s to capture 90 percent of the petroleum refining industry in the United States during the Gilded Age. John D. Rockefeller, the company’s founder, organized the company around an almost religious dedication to principles of efficiency. Economic success masked the dark side of efficiency as Standard Oil dumped oil waste into public waterways, filled the urban atmosphere with acrid smoke, and created a consumer safety crisis by selling kerosene below congressional standards. Local governments, guided by a desire to favor the interests of business, deployed elaborate engineering solutions to tackle petroleum pollution at taxpayer expense rather than heed public calls to abate waste streams at their source. Only when refinery pollutants threatened the health of the Great Lakes in the twentieth century did the federal government respond to a nascent environmental movement. Organized around the four classical elements at the core of Standard Oil’s success (earth, air, fire, and water), Refining Nature provides an ecological context for the rise of one of the most important corporations in American history.
Ben-Hur was the first literary blockbuster to generate multiple and hugely profitable adaptations, highlighted by the 1959 film that won a record-setting 11 Oscars. General Lew Wallace's book was spun off into dozens of popular publications and media productions, becoming a veritable commercial brand name that earned tens of millions of dollars. Ben-Hur: The Original Blockbuster surveys the Ben-Hur phenomenon's unprecedented range and extraordinary endurance: various editions, spin-off publications, stage productions, movies, comic books, radio plays, and retail products were successfully marketed and sold from the 1880s and throughout the twentieth century. Today Ben-Hur Live is touring Europe and Asia, with a third MGM film in production in Italy.Jon Solomon's new book offers an exciting and detailed study of the Ben-Hur brand, tracking its spectacular journey from Wallace's original novel through to twenty-first century adaptations, and encompassing a wealth of previously unexplored material along the way
With new commentary and Insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of perhaps the most famous financial speculator of all time-Jesse Livermore. This annotated edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre's fictionalized account of Livermore's life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. It also describes the variety of trading approaches Livermore used throughout his life and analyzes his psychological development as a trader and the lessons gained through hard experiences. Analyzes legendary trader Jesse Livermore's strategies and explains how they can be used in today's markets Provides factual details regarding the actual companies Livermore traded in and the people who helped/hindered him along the way Explains the structure and mechanics of the Livermore-era markets, including the bucket shops and the commodity exchanges Includes more than 100 pages of new material Reminiscences of a Stock Operator has endured over 70 years because traders and investors continue to find lessons from Livermore's experiences that they can apply to their own trading. This annotated edition will continue the trend.
A classic collection of titles featuring one of the world's greatest traders: Jesse Livermore Jesse Livermore won and lost tens of millions of dollars playing the stock and commodities markets during the early 1900s, at one point making ten million dollars in one month of trading—an astronomical sum for this time. His ideas and keen analyses of market price movements are as true today as they were when he first implemented them. Now, for the first time ever, The Reminiscences of a Stock Operator Collection brings together three classic titles based on this unique individual and offers profound insights into his motivations, attitudes, and strategies. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, the fictionalized biography of Jesse Livermore, has endured over seventy years because traders and investors continue to find lessons from Livermore's experiences that they can apply to their own endeavors Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Illustrated Edition reproduces the original articles by Edwin Lefèvre and drawings by M.L. Blumenthal published in the Saturday Evening Post in the 1920s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Annotated Edition bridges the gap between Edwin Lefevre's fictionalized account of Livermore's life and the actual, historical events, places, and people that populate the book. Throughout the book there are notes that detail the actual companies, people, or situations that Livermore encountered Engaging and informative, this collection provides a complete picture of Livermore's life and trading strategies, and offers tremendous value to today's serious investor or trader.
These essays provide a thorough introduction to economics for historians. The authors, all eminent scholars, show how to use economic thinking, economic models, and economic methods to enrich historical research. They examine such vital issues as long-term trends, institutions, labor—including an engaging dialogue between a labor historian and a labor economist—international affairs, and money and banking. Scholars and teachers of history will welcome this volume as an introduction and guide to economics, a springboard for their own research, and a lively and provocative source of collateral reading for students at every level. The combined research experience of these authors encompasses many varieties of economics and covers a kaleidoscopic array of nations, subjects, and time periods. All are expert in presenting the insights and complexities of economics to nonspecialist audiences.
The Encyclopedia of Psychological Trauma is the only authoritative reference on the scientific evidence, clinical practice guidelines, and social issues addressed within the field of trauma and posttraumatic stress disorder. Edited by the leading experts in the field, you will turn to this definitive reference work again and again for complete coverage of psychological trauma, PTSD, evidence-based and standard treatments, as well as controversial topics including EMDR, virtual reality therapy, and much more.
Exerting a magnetic pull our imaginations, the poles have been the object of many gripping first-hand accounts of exploration - literally, journeys to the ends of the earth A passport to the last wildnernesses of Earth, this is the definitive collection of first-hand accounts of polar exploration - 50 true stories of intrepid travel through the desolate and dangerous regions of both Arctic and Antarctic. Beginning with Sir John Franklin's starvation trek through Alaska in 1821 and ending with Vassilli Gorshkovsky's northern expedition aboard a creaking ice-breaker in 2005, these true stories encompass every kind of triumph and disaster. The inspired but doomed courage of Captain Scott, and the marvellous leadership of Shackleton are well known, but here are many other stories including: The Bear, by Frederick A. Cook, 1908 Meeting with Polar Eskimos by Knud Rasmussen, 1932 By Dog-Sledge to the Top of the World, by Wally Herbert, 1968 Hell on Earth by Reinhold Messner, 1989-90 Solo by Pen Haddow, 2003 And many more.
This book is a compilation of joint papers written by the staff and students of the Nanyang Business School in Singapore. It encompasses a broad range of interesting microeconomic and macroeconomic topics. The four sections of the book cover Singaporean microeconomic and macroeconomic issues, interdependence among Asia-Pacific economies, and other Asia-Pacific economic issues. The book embodies the highest level of technical rigor and commitment to excellence. The general public should find this book a handy, useful and informative tool for understanding the economics of East Asia. In particular, analysts and researchers in banks, securities houses, multinational corporations, government ministries and agencies, and universities will find the book indispensable for enhancing their understanding of the region's economies.
A noted historian explores the development of U.S. State governments from the end of the 19th century to the so-called renaissance of States in the 20th. It is a common misperception that America’s state governments were lethargic backwaters before suddenly stirring to life in the 1980s. In The Rise of the States, Jon C. Teaford presents a very different picture. Teaford shows how state governments were continually adapting and expanding throughout the past century, assuming new responsibilities, developing new sources of revenue, and creating new institutions. The Rise of the States examines the evolution of the structure, function, and finances of state government during the Progressive Era, the 1920s, the Great Depression, the post-World War II years, and into the 1960s. State governments not only played an active role in the creation, governance, and management of the political units that made up the state, but also in dealing with the growth of business, industries, and education. Different states chose different solutions to common problems, and this diversity of responses points to the growing vitality and maturity of state governments as the twentieth century unfolded.
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.