The human element is the principle cause of incidents and accidents in all technology industries; hence it is evident that an understanding of the interaction between humans and technology is crucial to the effective management of risk. Despite this, no tested model that explicitly and quantitatively includes the human element in risk prediction is currently available. Managing Risk: the Human Element combines descriptive and explanatory text with theoretical and mathematical analysis, offering important new concepts that can be used to improve the management of risk, trend analysis and prediction, and hence affect the accident rate in technological industries. It uses examples of major accidents to identify common causal factors, or “echoes”, and argues that the use of specific experience parameters for each particular industry is vital to achieving a minimum error rate as defined by mathematical prediction. New ideas for the perception, calculation and prediction of risk are introduced, and safety management is covered in depth, including for rare events and “unknown” outcomes Discusses applications to multiple industries including nuclear, aviation, medical, shipping, chemical, industrial, railway, offshore oil and gas; Shows consistency between learning for large systems and technologies with the psychological models of learning from error correction at the personal level; Offers the expertise of key leading industry figures involved in safety work in the civil aviation and nuclear engineering industries; Incorporates numerous fascinating case studies of key technological accidents. Managing Risk: the Human Element is an essential read for professional safety experts, human reliability experts and engineers in all technological industries, as well as risk analysts, corporate managers and statistical analysts. It is also of interest to professors, researchers and postgraduate students of reliability and safety engineering, and to experts in human performance. “...congratulations on what appears to be, at a high level of review, a significant contribution to the literature...I have found much to be admired in (your) research” Mr. Joseph Fragola – Vice President of Valador Inc. “The book is not only technically informative, but also attractive to all concerned readers and easy to be comprehended at various level of educational background. It is truly an excellent book ever written for the safety risk managers and analysis professionals in the engineering community, especially in the high reliability organizations...” Dr Feng Hsu, Head of Risk Assessment and Management, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center “I admire your courage in confronting your theoretical ideas with such diverse, ecologically valid data, and your success in capturing a major trend in them....I should add that I find all this quite inspiring . ...The idea that you need to find the right measure of accumulated experience and not just routinely used calendar time makes so much sense that it comes as a shock to realize that this is a new idea”, Professor Stellan Ohlsson, Professor of Psychology, University of Illinois at Chicago
We live in a technological world, exposed to many risks and errors and the fear of death. Know the Risk shows us how we can learn from the many errors and tragic accidents which have plagued our developing technological world.This breakthrough volume presents a new concept and theory that shows how errors can and should be analyzed so that learning and experience are accounted for. The authors show that, by using a universal learning curve, errors can be tracked and managed so that they are reduced to the smallest number possible.The authors have devoted a number of years to gathering data, analyzing theories relating to error reduction, design improvement, management of errors and assignment of cause. The analyzed data relates to millions of errors. They find a common thread between all technology-related accidents and link all of these errors (from the headline stories to the everyday accidents). They challenge the reader to take a different look at the stream of threats, risks, dangers, statistics and errors by presenting a new perspective. The book makes use of detailed illustrations and explores many headline accidents which highlight human weaknesses in harnessing and exploiting the technology we have developed; from the Titanic to Chernobyl, Bhopal to Concorde, the Mary Rose to the Paddington rail crash and examine errors over which we have little or no control. By analyzing the vast data society has collected, the authors show how the famous accidents and our everyday risks are related.The authors prove the strength of their observations by comparing their findings to the recorded history of tragedies, disasters, accidents and incidents in chemical, airline, shipping, rail, automobile, nuclear, medical, industrial and manufacturing technologies. They also address the management of Quality and losses in production, the search for zero defects and the avoidance of personal risk and danger. Stresses the importance of a learning environment for safety improvementPlaces both quality and safety management in the same learning contextLearn how to track and manage errors to reduce as quickly as possible
Reprint of the original. The publishing house Anatiposi publishes historical books as reprints. Due to their age, these books may have missing pages or inferior quality. Our aim is to preserve these books and make them available to the public so that they do not get lost.
PREFACE. THE Author of this very practical treatise on Scotch Loch - Fishing desires clearly that it may be of use to all who had it. He does not pretend to have written anything new, but to have attempted to put what he has to say in as readable a form as possible. Everything in the way of the history and habits of fish has been studiously avoided, and technicalities have been used as sparingly as possible. The writing of this book has afforded him pleasure in his leisure moments, and that pleasure would be much increased if he knew that the perusal of it would create any bond of sympathy between himself and the angling community in general. This section is interleaved with blank shects for the readers notes. The Author need hardly say that any suggestions addressed to the case of the publishers, will meet with consideration in a future edition. We do not pretend to write or enlarge upon a new subject. Much has been said and written-and well said and written too on the art of fishing but loch-fishing has been rather looked upon as a second-rate performance, and to dispel this idea is one of the objects for which this present treatise has been written. Far be it from us to say anything against fishing, lawfully practised in any form but many pent up in our large towns will bear us out when me say that, on the whole, a days loch-fishing is the most convenient. One great matter is, that the loch-fisher is depend- ent on nothing but enough wind to curl the water, -and on a large loch it is very seldom that a dead calm prevails all day, -and can make his arrangements for a day, weeks beforehand whereas the stream- fisher is dependent for a good take on the state of the water and however pleasant and easy it may be for one living near the banks of a good trout stream or river, it is quite another matter to arrange for a days river-fishing, if one is looking forward to a holiday at a date some weeks ahead. Providence may favour the expectant angler with a good day, and the water in order but experience has taught most of us that the good days are in the minority, and that, as is the case with our rapid running streams, -such as many of our northern streams are, -the water is either too large or too small, unless, as previously remarked, you live near at hand, and can catch it at its best. A common belief in regard to loch-fishing is, that the tyro and the experienced angler have nearly the same chance in fishing, -the one from the stern and the other from the bow of the same boat. Of all the absurd beliefs as to loch-fishing, this is one of the most absurd. Try it. Give the tyro either end of the boat he likes give him a cast of ally flies he may fancy, or even a cast similar to those which a crack may be using and if he catches one for every three the other has, he may consider himself very lucky. Of course there are lochs where the fish are not abundant, and a beginner may come across as many as an older fisher but we speak of lochs where there are fish to be caught, and where each has a fair chance. Again, it is said that the boatman has as much to do with catching trout in a loch as the angler. Well, we dont deny that. In an untried loch it is necessary to have the guidance of a good boatman but the same argument holds good as to stream-fishing...
John Knox (1514-1572) was more a reformer of the Scottish Kirk than he was a systematic theologian, as his collected works will attest. Knox had a profound influence upon theological and ecclesiological developments in Scotland both purely by the force of his personality and by the role he played in shaping the Scots Confession and the Book of Common Order. Knox was an ordained priest and served as a tutor prior to his conversion to Protestantism. Volumes One and Two: Knox's famous 'History of the Reformation in Scotland'. Apologetics as much as history, 'History of the Reformation in Scotland' was immediately seized and suppressed when it initially appeared, yet it has remained available in various editions for over 400 years. Volume Three: 'Earliest Writings', 1548-1554 Volume Four: 'Writings from Frankfurt and Geneva'. These writings in exile include Knox's famous 'First Blast of the Trumpet against the Monstrous Regiment of Women', his violent diatribe against Mary of Guise. Volume Five: 'On Predestination' and other writings. 'On Predestination, in Answer to the Cavillations by an Anabaptist' is Knox's longest theological work and presents a position of rigid predestinationism. Volume Six: Letters, Prayer, and other shorter writings with a sketch of his life.
“The facts of variability, of the struggle for existence, of adaptation to conditions, were notorious enough; but none of us had suspected that the road to the heart of the species problem lay through them, until Darwin and Wallace dispelled the darkness.”T H Huxley (1887)Darwin is one of the most famous scientists in history. But he was not alone. Comparatively forgotten, Wallace independently discovered evolution by natural selection in Southeast Asia. This book is based on the most thorough research ever conducted on Wallace's voyage. Closely connected, but worlds apart, Darwin and Wallace's stories hold many surprises. Did Darwin really keep his theory a secret for twenty years? Did he plagiarise Wallace? Were their theories really the same? How did Wallace hit on the solution, and on which island? This book reveals for the first time the true story of Darwin, Wallace and the discovery that would change our understanding of life on Earth forever.
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