Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan, Second Edition provides an accessible approach for conducting Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs, as well as new programs in JAGS and Stan. The new programs are designed to be much easier to use than the scripts in the first edition. In particular, there are now compact high-level scripts that make it easy to run the programs on your own data sets. The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes' rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment. This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business. - Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random sampling - Examples with R programming language and JAGS software - Comprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis) - Coverage of experiment planning - R and JAGS computer programming code on website - Exercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment - Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs
Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson laid the foundations for today's political debates between Democrats and Republicans. Hamilton believed that freedom must be married with a strong central government and especially an energetic president, while Jefferson believed freedom derived from local civic virtues. Throughout history, Democrats and Republicans have chosen sides in this eternal debate—and sometimes even changed sides. Today, those debates have become sharper and more polarized, as the two parties square off on major issues such as healthcare, taxes, regulation, the role of the federal government, and what discretion should be given to local authorities. The debate can be loud and shrill, even as the public yearns for some accommodation between these two schools of thought. People may generally desire an active government to deal with acute problems, but localism still has widespread appeal, and political dysfunction often results when these outcomes are presented as polar opposites and elections are reduced to zero sum contests. Social media adds to the polarization, as Americans gravitate to websites that often ratify their preexisting points of view. The parties struggle to function in this environment as they try to adapt to the political realities of the social media age and the Trump era.
When radio broadcasting began in the early 1920s, the radio was a magic box aglow with the future, drawing humanity into a new age. Some thought it would dissolve the distance between time and place, others that human minds would become transparent, one tuned to another. Performers claiming psychic powers turned radio broadcasting into a fabulous money machine. These "mentalists," born from vaudeville, circuses, sideshows, and the Spiritualist and New Thought movements of the mid-late 19th century, used the language of wireless technology to explain their ability to see the past, present, and future. Casting their mystical knowledge as a scientifically honed craft, these mentalists persuaded millions to pay for dubious advice until governmental and public pressures forced them off the air. This book is a history of over 25 performers who practiced their art behind studio microphones during the early years of radio broadcasting, from about 1920 to 1940. Here, laid out for the first time, is the tale of how they made cash rain from the heavens and harnessed the sensation of the radio in search of wealth, health, love, and success.
An experienced author in the field of data analytics and statistics, John Macinnes has produced a straight-forward text that breaks down the complex topic of inferential statistics with accessible language and detailed examples. It covers a range of topics, including: · Probability and Sampling distributions · Inference and regression · Power, effect size and inverse probability Part of The SAGE Quantitative Research Kit, this book will give you the know-how and confidence needed to succeed on your quantitative research journey.
Animal Learning and Cognition: An Introduction provides an up-to-date review of the principal findings from more than a century of research into animal intelligence. This new edition has been expanded to take account of the many exciting developments that have occurred over the last ten years. The book opens with a historical survey of the methods that have been used to study animal intelligence, and follows by summarizing the contribution made by learning processes to intelligent behavior. Topics include Pavlovian and instrumental conditioning, discrimination learning, and categorization. The remainder of the book focuses on animal cognition and covers such topics as memory, navigation, social learning, language and communication, and knowledge representation. Expanded areas include extinction (to which an entire chapter is now devoted), navigation in insects, episodic memory in birds, imitation in birds and primates, and the debate about whether primates are aware of mental states in themselves and others. Issues raised throughout the book are reviewed in a concluding chapter that examines how intelligence is distributed throughout the animal kingdom. The broad spectrum of topics covered in this book ensures that it will be of interest to students of psychology, biology, zoology, and neuroscience. Since very little background knowledge is required, the book will be of equal value to anyone simply interested in either animal intelligence, or the animal origins of human intelligence. This textbook is accompanied by online instructor resources which are free of charge to departments who adopt this book as their text. They include chapter-by-chapter lecture slides, an interactive chapter-by-chapter multiple-choice question test bank, and multiple-choice questions in paper and pen format.
Winner of the 2016 De Groot Prize from the International Society for Bayesian AnalysisNow in its third edition, this classic book is widely considered the leading text on Bayesian methods, lauded for its accessible, practical approach to analyzing data and solving research problems. Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition continues to take an applied
John Taylor argues that an individual's knowledge of a language is a repository of memories. Similarities between items lead to generalizations then used to generate new expressions. He makes a compelling contribution to understanding language and the operations of the mind. The book will appeal to linguists, philosophers, and cognitive scientists.
Recent years have witnessed a revival of research in the interplay between cognition and emotion. The reasons for this renaissance are many and varied. In the first place, emotion theorists have come to recognize the pivotal role of cognitive factors in virtually all aspects of the emotion process, and to rely on basic cognitive factors and insight in creating new models of affective space. Also, the successful application of cognitive therapies to affective disorders has prompted clinical psychologists to work towards a clearer understanding of the connections between cognitive processes and emotional problems. And whereas the cognitive revolutionaries of the 1960s regarded emotions with suspicion, viewing them as nagging sources of "hot" noise in an otherwise cool, rational, and computer-like system of information processing, cognitive researchers of the 1990s regard emotions with respect, owing to their potent and predictable effects on tasks as diverse as object perception, episodic recall, and risk assessment. These intersecting lines of interest have made cognition and emotion one of the most active and rapidly developing areas within psychological science. Written in debate format, this book covers developing fields such as social cognition, as well as classic areas such as memory, learning, perception and categorization. The links between emotion and memory, learning, perception, categorization, social judgements, and behavior are addressed. Contributors come from the U.S., Canada, Australia, and France.
This book is a practical guide to building computational models of high-level cognitive processes and systems. High-level processes are those central cognitive processes involved in thinking, reasoning, planning, and so on. These processes appear to share representational and processing requirements, and it is for this reason that they are considered together in this text. The book is divided into three parts. Part I considers foundational and background issues. Part II provides a series of case studies spanning a range of cognitive domains. Part III reflects upon issues raised by the case studies. Teachers of cognitive modeling may use material from Part I to structure lectures and practical sessions, with chapters in Part II forming the basis of in-depth student projects. All models discussed in this book are developed within the COGENT environments. COGENT provides a graphical interface in which models may be sketched as "box and arrow" diagrams and is both a useful teaching tool and a productive research tool. As such, this book is designed to be of use to both students of cognitive modeling and active researchers. For students, the book provides essential background material plus an extensive set of example models, exercises and project material. Researchers of both symbolic and connectionist persuasions will find the book of interest for its approach to cognitive modeling, which emphasizes methodological issues. They will also find that the COGENT environment itself has much to offer.
The information in this book proves by means of credible and irrefutable documentary evidence that the Supreme Court's decision on June 26, 2008, in District of Columbia v. Heller, which held that the Second Amendment protects the right of an individual to possess and carry weapons, was incorrect. And the information in this book forms the foundation of what would have been the correct decision in that case. Second Amendment commentary and case law are incorrect. But unfortunately, they are relied upon by today's scholars and jurists. However, this book, written in plain English instead of the legalese that many persons find unappealing about books pertaining to legal subjects, takes the bold step of disproving these incorrect authorities on the most controversial and puzzling provision of the United States Constitution, and it meets that challenge. While other books on the Second Amendment rely largely on incorrect commentary and case law, this book uses credible and irrefutable documentary evidence to uncover the substance of the Second Amendment. By proving that Second Amendment commentary and case law are incorrect, this book will become both the preeminent treatise on the Second Amendment and a landmark book in the field of Constitutional law. And while gun control has been a highly controversial issue for a long time, the debate on gun control has been improperly bifurcated into what is good public policy and what is Constitutional. This book eliminates the Constitutional component of that debate so that the debate can be focused solely on what is good public policy. Other books written on the Second Amendment propose incorrect theories or attempt to reconcile its two supposed clauses. However, this book is the best book ever written on the Second Amendment because it does what no other book has ever done. It uncovers, by means of documentary evidence instead of mere argument, the true meanings of the terms A well regulated Militia, people, keep, and bear arms.
Currents in Language Learning is a biennial book series published by Wiley and the Language Learning Research Club at the University of Michigan. It provides programmatic state-of-the-art overviews of current issues in the language sciences and their applications in first, second, and bi/multilingual language acquisition in naturalistic and tutored contexts. It brings together disciplinary perspectives from linguistics, psychology, education, anthropology, sociology, cognitive science, and neuroscience.
The Psychology of Thinking is an engaging, interesting and easy-to-follow guide into the essential concepts behind our reasoning, decision-making and problem-solving. Clearly structured into 3 sections, this book will; Introduce your students to organisation of thought including memory, language and concepts; Expand their understanding of reasoning including inference and induction as well as motivation and the impact of mood; Improve their thinking in action, focusing on decision-making and problem-solving. Suitable for any course in which students need to develop their judgement and decision-making skills, this book uses clever examples of real-world situations to help them understand and apply the theories discussed to their everyday thinking.
Latent Variable Models: An Introduction to Factor, Path, and Structural Equation Analysis introduces latent variable models by utilizing path diagrams to explain the relationships in the models. This approach helps less mathematically-inclined readers to grasp the underlying relations among path analysis, factor analysis, and structural equation modeling, and to set up and carry out such analyses. This revised and expanded fifth edition again contains key chapters on path analysis, structural equation models, and exploratory factor analysis. In addition, it contains new material on composite reliability, models with categorical data, the minimum average partial procedure, bi-factor models, and communicating about latent variable models. The informal writing style and the numerous illustrative examples make the book accessible to readers of varying backgrounds. Notes at the end of each chapter expand the discussion and provide additional technical detail and references. Moreover, most chapters contain an extended example in which the authors work through one of the chapter’s examples in detail to aid readers in conducting similar analyses with their own data. The book and accompanying website provide all of the data for the book’s examples as well as syntax from latent variable programs so readers can replicate the analyses. The book can be used with any of a variety of computer programs, but special attention is paid to LISREL and R. An important resource for advanced students and researchers in numerous disciplines in the behavioral sciences, education, business, and health sciences, Latent Variable Models is a practical and readable reference for those seeking to understand or conduct an analysis using latent variables.
Natural disasters are occasional intense events that disturb Earth's surface, but their impact can be felt long after. Hazard events such as earthquakes, volcanos, drought, and storms can trigger a catastrophic reshaping of the landscape through the erosion, transport, and deposition of different kinds of materials. Geomorphology and Natural Hazards: Understanding Landscape Change for Disaster Mitigation is a graduate level textbook that explores the natural hazards resulting from landscape change and shows how an Earth science perspective can inform hazard mitigation and disaster impact reduction. Volume highlights include: Definitions of hazards, risks, and disasters Impact of different natural hazards on Earth surface processes Geomorphologic insights for hazard assessment and risk mitigation Models for predicting natural hazards How human activities have altered 'natural' hazards Complementarity of geomorphology and engineering to manage threats
On March 31, 1943, the musical Oklahoma! premiered and the modern era of the Broadway musical was born. Since that time, the theatres of Broadway have staged hundreds of musicals--some more noteworthy than others, but all in their own way a part of American theatre history. With more than 750 entries, this comprehensive reference work provides information on every musical produced on Broadway since Oklahoma's 1943 debut. Each entry begins with a brief synopsis of the show, followed by a three-part history: first, the pre-Broadway story of the show, including out-of-town try-outs and Broadway previews; next, the Broadway run itself, with dates, theatres, and cast and crew, including replacements, chorus and understudies, songs, gossip, and notes on reviews and awards; and finally, post-Broadway information with a detailed list of later notable productions, along with important reviews and awards.
Science of Weather, Climate and Ocean Extremes presents an evidence-based view of the most important ways in which the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is affecting both our atmosphere and the oceans. The book provides compelling reasons why concerted action is required to slow the rate at which the atmosphere and oceans are changing. It not only covers longer-term changes in extremes and their causes, but also considers the drivers and attribution of extreme events, including relevant methods and techniques. Members of the Royal Meteorological Society are eligible for a 35% discount on all Developments in Weather and Climate Science series titles. See the RMetS member dashboard for the discount code. - Provides an evidence-based understanding of a significant risk to the future performance of human and natural systems - Includes assessments, advice and recommendations of extreme weather and climate events - Features case studies from around the globe to provide further context to the research
A host of promising public sector reform efforts are underway throughout the world. In governments challenged by budget deficits and declining public trust, these reform efforts seek to improve policy decisions and public management. Along the way, program efficiency and effectiveness help rebuild public confidence in government. Whether through regular measurement of program inputs, activities, and outcomes, or through episodic one-shot studies, performance monitoring plays a central role in the most important current reform efforts. Monitoring Performance in the Public Sector, now available in paperback, is based on experiences derived from comparative analysis in different countries. It explains why there is interest in perfor!mance monitoring in a given setting, why it has failed or created uncertainties, and identifies criteria for improving its design and use.One of the challenges this book offers is the need to consider dimensions of performance beyond the traditional ones of economy, efficiency, and effectiveness. With an increasingly diverse, interdependent, and uncertain public sector environment, for some stakeholders meeting objectives fixed some time ago may not be as important as the capacity to adapt to current and future change. In this vein, the contributors address a number of themes: the criti!cal importance of organizational support for performance monitoring and making it consistent with the organizational culture, the need for active and effective leadership in defining criteria and implementing practical performance monitoring, the value of linking ongoing measurement with more than the traditional, strictly quantitative aspects of public sector performance.As we gain experience with performance monitoring and its uses, such systems should become more cost effective over time. This book will be of deep interest to public managers, government officials, economists, and organization theorists, and useful in courses on p
Recent years have witnessed a revival of research in the interplay between cognition and emotion. The reasons for this renaissance are many and varied. In the first place, emotion theorists have come to recognize the pivotal role of cognitive factors in virtually all aspects of the emotion process, and to rely on basic cognitive factors and insight in creating new models of affective space. Also, the successful application of cognitive therapies to affective disorders has prompted clinical psychologists to work towards a clearer understanding of the connections between cognitive processes and emotional problems. And whereas the cognitive revolutionaries of the 1960s regarded emotions with suspicion, viewing them as nagging sources of "hot" noise in an otherwise cool, rational, and computer-like system of information processing, cognitive researchers of the 1990s regard emotions with respect, owing to their potent and predictable effects on tasks as diverse as object perception, episodic recall, and risk assessment. These intersecting lines of interest have made cognition and emotion one of the most active and rapidly developing areas within psychological science. Written in debate format, this book covers developing fields such as social cognition, as well as classic areas such as memory, learning, perception and categorization. The links between emotion and memory, learning, perception, categorization, social judgements, and behavior are addressed. Contributors come from the U.S., Canada, Australia, and France.
Mendelssohn, Goethe, and the Walpurgis Night is a book about tolerance and acceptance in the face of cultural, political, and religious strife. Its point of departure is the Walpurgis Night. The Night, also known as Beltane or May Eve, was supposedly an annual witches' Sabbath that centered around the Brocken, the highest peak of the Harz Mountains. After exploring how a notoriously pagan celebration came to be named after the Christian missionary St. Walpurgis (ca. 710-79), John Michael Cooper discusses the Night's treatments in several closely interwoven works by Goethe and Mendelssohn. His book situates those works in their immediate personal and professional contexts, as well as among treatments by a wide array of other artists, philosophers, and political thinkers, including Voltaire, Lessing, Shelley, Heine, Delacroix, and Berlioz. In an age of decisive political and religious conflict, Walpurgis Night became a heathen muse: a source of inspiration that was neither specifically Christian, nor Jewish, nor Muslim. And Mendelssohn's and Goethe's engagements with it offer new insights into its role in European cultural history, as well as into issues of political, religious, and social identity -- and the relations between cultural groups -- in today's world. John Michael Cooper (Southwestern University) is the author of Mendelssohn's "Italian" Symphony (Oxford University Press).
American Political Parties is a core textbook on political parties in the United States that places the US party system into a framework designed around the disagreements between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson. White and Kerbel argue that the two-party system in the United States began with a common agreement on the key values of freedom, individual rights, and equality of opportunity but that Hamilton and Jefferson disagreed—often vehemently—over how to translate these ideals into an acceptable form of governance. This text develops a unique historical perspective of US party development using the disagreements between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson as a framework for analysis. While Hamilton wanted to marry freedom to a strong, active federal government with an energetic president who would act on behalf of all citizens, Jefferson believed that freedom should be allied to local civic virtue, with governmental responsibilities placed primarily at the local level. Today, Hamiltonian nationalism finds its home in the Democratic Party, while Republicans have espoused Jeffersonian localism since 1964. Using this historical framework, American Political Parties examines a range of topics including marketing and social media, campaign finance, reforms in the presidential nominating process, political demography, and third parties. In this new edition (previously published as Party On!), the authors describe four possible futures in the wake of the 2020 election and why Americans believed it was “the most important” election in their lifetimes. The unique history of US political parties as set forth by the disagreements between Alexander Hamilton and Thomas Jefferson is at an inflection point. Republicans have become an insurgent party fully under the control of Donald Trump while Democrats have an opportunity to create a new majority coalition. This juncture poses unique challenges to our democracy and constitutional framework, and the book describes four possible outcomes, postulating where American political parties are headed in this decade.
A new edition of this practical guide for clinicians and researchers who wish to develop tools to measure subjective states, attitudes, or non-tangible outcomes in their patients, ideal for those who have no knowledge of statistics.
This accessible field guide identifies and describes native California tree species and most common shrubs in text complemented by more than 200 line drawings, 300 range maps, and 40 color photos.
When the 1952 presidential election campaign began, many assumed it would be a race between Harry Truman, seeking his second full term, and Robert A. Taft, son of a former president and, to many of his fellow partisans, “Mr. Republican”. No one imagined the party standard bearers would be Illinois governor Adlai E. Stevenson II and Supreme Allied Commander in World War II, Dwight D. Eisenhower. I Like Ike tells the story of a critical election fought between two avowedly reluctant warriors, including Truman’s efforts to recruit Eisenhower as the candidate of the Democrat Party—to a finish that, for all the partisan wrangling, had more to do with the extraordinary popularity of the former general, who, along with Stevenson, was seen to be somehow above politics. In the first book to analyze the 1952 election in its entirety, political historian John Robert Greene looks in detail at how Stevenson and Eisenhower faced demands that they run for an office neither originally wanted. He examines the campaigns of their opponents—Harry Truman and Robert Taft, but also Estes Kefauver, Richard B. Russell, Averell Harriman and Earl Warren. Richard Nixon’s famous “Checkers Speech,” Joseph McCarthy’s anti-Communist campaign, and television as a new medium for news and political commercials—each figured in the election in its own way; and drawing in depth on the Eisenhower, Stevenson, Taft and Nixon papers, Greene traces how. I Like Ike is a compelling account of how an America fearful of a Communist threat elected a war hero and brought an end to twenty years of Democrat control of the White House. In an era of political ferment, it also makes a timely and persuasive case for the importance of the election of 1952 not only to the Eisenhower Administration, but also to the development of presidential politics well into the future.
This text offers a systematic and accessible presentation of the theoretical foundations of higher mental processes. It addresses both the information processing and the cognitive neuroscience approaches to the field.
Computational approaches offer exciting opportunities for us to do social science differently. This beginner’s guide discusses a range of computational methods and how to use them to study the problems and questions you want to research. It assumes no knowledge of programming, offering step-by-step guidance for coding in Python and drawing on examples of real data analysis to demonstrate how you can apply each approach in any discipline. The book also: Considers important principles of social scientific computing, including transparency, accountability and reproducibility. Understands the realities of completing research projects and offers advice for dealing with issues such as messy or incomplete data and systematic biases. Empowers you to learn at your own pace, with online resources including screencast tutorials and datasets that enable you to practice your skills and get up to speed. For anyone who wants to use computational methods to conduct a social science research project, this book equips you with the skills, good habits and best working practices to do rigorous, high quality work.
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