Most criminological theories are not truly scientific, since they do not yield exact quantitative predictions of criminal career features, such as the prevalence and frequency of offending at different ages. This Element aims to make progress towards more scientific criminological theories. A simple theory is described, based on measures of the probability of reoffending and the frequency of offending. Three offender categories are identified: high risk/high rate, high risk/low rate, and low risk/low rate. It is demonstrated that this theory accurately predicts key criminal career features in three datasets: in England the Offenders Index (national data), the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) and in America the Pittsburgh Youth Study (PYS). The theory is then extended in the CSDD and PYS by identifying early risk factors that predict the three categories. Criminological theorists are encouraged to replicate and build on our research to develop scientific theories that yield quantitative predictions.
Using the Home Office Offenders Index, a unique database containing records of all criminal (standard list) convictions in England and Wales since 1963, this simple but influential theory makes exact quantitative predictions about criminal careers and age-crime curves, in particular the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy.
Many Christians have become increasingly sensitive to the destructiveness of war. They are recognizing war’s limited ability as a public policy instrument. They are acknowleding the social, economic, and spiritual consequences of preparing to wage war. These concerns have begun to revive the conscience of the church in new ways. This text contends that peacemaking is essential to Christian discipleship. It is the vocation of the church as a whole. Moving beyond the traditional debate around “pacifism,” This statement seeks dialogue concerning a renewed vision of the entire purpose of God in the world. In A Declaration on Peace, Brethren, Friends, Mennonites, and the Fellowship of Reconciliation seek conversation with Christians everywhere on peace, war, militarism, and justice. The book offers an ecumenical dialogue on the morality of war grounded in a biblical vision common to all Christian communions. Herald Press and John Howard Yoder
Dr. John E. Foster spent many years researching and interpreting the Metis, continually re-examining his own thinking about the fur trade and the West, trying to find new lines of inquiry across disciplinary boundaries, and, playing with ideas that re-imagined the Canadian West. In From Rupert's Land to Canada, in tribute to John's work, his friends and colleagues further explore themes related to "Native History and the Fur Trade," "Metis History," and the "Imagined West". Contributors include Michael Payne, Nicole St-Onge, Jan Grabowski, Jennifer Brown, Heather Rollason, Frits Pannekoek, Heather Devine, Gerhard Ens, Gerry Friesen, Ted Binnema, Ian MacLaren, Rod Macleod, Tom Flanagan and Glen Campbell.
On 31 December 1918, hours from the first New Year of peace, hundreds of Royal Naval Reservists from the Isle of Lewis poured off successive trains onto the quayside at Kyle of Lochalsh. A chaotic Admiralty had made no adequate arrangements for their safe journey home. Corners were cut, an elderly and recently requisitioned steam-yacht was sent from Stornoway, and that evening HMY Iolaire sailed from Kyle of Lochalsh, grossly overloaded and with life-belts for less than a third of all on board. The Iolaire never made it. At two in the morning, in pitch-black and stormy conditions, she piled onto rocks only yards from the harbour entrance and just half a mile from Stornoway pier, where thronged friends and relatives eagerly awaited the return of their heroes. 205 men drowned, 188 of them natives of Lewis and Harris - men who had come through all the alarms and dangers of the First World War only to die on their own doorstep, at the mouth of a harbour many could themselves have navigated with ease, on a day precious to Highlanders for family, celebration and togetherness. The loss of the Iolaire remains the worst peacetime British disaster at sea since the sinking of the Titanic. Yet, beyond the Western Isles, few have ever heard of what is not only one of the cruellest events in our history but an extraordinary maritime mystery - a tale not only of bureaucrats in a hurry, unfathomable Naval incompetence and abiding, official contempt for the lives of Highlanders, but of individual heroism, astonishing escapes, heart-rending anecdote and the resilience and faith of a remarkable people. In the first English account and on the ninetieth anniversary of the 'dark ship', John MacLeod tells the story of the Iolaire, the astonishing commitment of the people of Lewis to the war against the Kaiser, its sickening end, and the way of life the disaster effectively destroyed - a tipping-point, he argues, in the overthrow of an old human economy and which deprived the Isle of Lewis of an entire generation.
There is no populated place without a name, and every name is chosen for a reason. This fascinating dictionary unveils the etymological roots and history of thousands of locations and landmarks from around the world. It contains over 11,000 entries, and covers an enormous range of country, region, island, city, town, mountain and river names from across the world, as well as the name in the local language. Place names are continually changing, and new names are adopted for many different reasons such as invasion, revolution, and decolonization. The Concise Dictionary of World Place-Names includes selected former names, and, where appropriate, some historical detail to explain the transition. The names of places often offer a real insight into the places themselves, revealing religious and cultural traditions, the migration of peoples, the ebb and flow of armies, the presence of explorers, local languages, industrial developments and topography. Superstition and legend can also play a part. This new edition has been updated to include over 750 new names, including Azincourt, Kropyvnyts'kyy , and Tlaxcala. It has also been edited to reflect socio-political and geographical shifts, notably the reorganisation of the French regions, and their consequent name alterations, as well as the decommunization of Ukrainian place-names. In addition to the entries themselves, the dictionary includes two appendices: a glossary of foreign word elements which appear in place-names and their meanings, and a list of personalities and leaders from all over the world who have influenced the naming of places.
Ever since the Canadian prairies were first settled and the Mounties marched west to establish and maintain law and order, the names of individual officers have left their mark on the national landscape. Their long tradition has been honoured in many of the place names of Canada, especially in the West. In this collection, over 250 of the NWMP, RNWMP and RCMP members who died while on duty, or who enjoyed long or extraordinary careers, are remembered. Other place names are connected to a Mountie-related event or were named by a pioneering Mountie in honour of some significant occurrence. Authors William "Bill" Hulgaard and John "Jack" White, both retired Mounties, extended their research across Canada to compile the information for Honoured in Places.
Labour, Mobility and Temporary Migration delves into sociological research on Polish migrants who migrated to the lesser-explored South Wales region after Poland joined the European Union in 2004. At the time of enlargement, Polish migrants were characterised as being economically motivated, short-term migrants who would enter the UK for work purposes, save money and return home. However, over ten years after enlargement, this initial characterisation has been challenged with many of the once considered ‘short-term’ Poles remaining in the UK. In the case of Wales, the long-term impact of this migration is only starting to be fully realised, particularly in consideration of the different spatial areas – urban, semi-urban and rural – explored in this book. Such impact is occurring in the post-Brexit referendum period, a time when the UK’s position in the EU is itself complex and changing.
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