Researchers developed two scenarios to envision the future of mobility in China in 2030. Economic growth, the presence of constraints on vehicle ownership and driving, and environmental conditions differentiate the scenarios. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the team sought to help decisionmakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change.
Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for departments of transportation (DOTs) to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends. This publication is the sixth report in this series. This report presents the results of research on how socio-demographic changes over the next 30 to 50 years will impact travel demand at the regional level. The research approach involved identifying a number of plausible future scenarios and development of a systems dynamic model that simulates the demographic evolution of a regional population starting from a baseline of the 2000 census and spanning a period of 50 years. The four future scenarios were developed using a Strategic Assumptions Surfacing and Testing (SAST) technique and include the following: (1) Momentum: gradual change without radical shifts; (2) Technology Triumphs: technology solves many present-day problems; (3) Global Chaos: a collapse in globalism and sustainability, and (4) Gentle Footprint: a widespread shift to low-impact living. The model does not predict which scenario is most likely; instead it predicts how travel demand will change under each of the five sectors: socio-demographics, travel behavior, land use, employment, and transportation supply. The accompanying CD (CRP-CD-152) contains the Impacts 2050 software tool, the user's guide, a PowerPoint presentation about the research, and the research brief. The Impacts 2050 tool enables modeling of changes in these sectors due to socio-demographic changes, the interplay between sectors, and external factors such as attitudes and technology. This report will help transportation decision makers understand how the population may change over time, how socio-demographic changes will affect the ways people travel, and the kinds of transportation modes and infrastructure that will be needed."--Foreword.
Major trends affecting the future of the United States and the world will dramatically reshape transportation priorities and needs. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials established the NCHRP Project 20-83 research series to examine global and domestic long-range strategic issues and their implications for departments of transportation (DOTs) to help prepare the DOTs for the challenges and benefits created by these trends. This publication is the sixth report in this series. This report presents the results of research on how socio-demographic changes over the next 30 to 50 years will impact travel demand at the regional level. The research approach involved identifying a number of plausible future scenarios and development of a systems dynamic model that simulates the demographic evolution of a regional population starting from a baseline of the 2000 census and spanning a period of 50 years. The four future scenarios were developed using a Strategic Assumptions Surfacing and Testing (SAST) technique and include the following: (1) Momentum: gradual change without radical shifts; (2) Technology Triumphs: technology solves many present-day problems; (3) Global Chaos: a collapse in globalism and sustainability, and (4) Gentle Footprint: a widespread shift to low-impact living. The model does not predict which scenario is most likely; instead it predicts how travel demand will change under each of the five sectors: socio-demographics, travel behavior, land use, employment, and transportation supply. The accompanying CD (CRP-CD-152) contains the Impacts 2050 software tool, the user's guide, a PowerPoint presentation about the research, and the research brief. The Impacts 2050 tool enables modeling of changes in these sectors due to socio-demographic changes, the interplay between sectors, and external factors such as attitudes and technology. This report will help transportation decision makers understand how the population may change over time, how socio-demographic changes will affect the ways people travel, and the kinds of transportation modes and infrastructure that will be needed."--Foreword.
The level of automobility, defined as travel in personal vehicles, is often seen as a function of income: The higher a country's per capita income, the greater the amount of driving. However, levels of automobility vary quite substantially between countries even at similar levels of economic development. This suggests that countries follow different mobility paths. The research detailed in this report sought to answer three questions: What are the factors besides economic development that affect automobility? What is their influence on automobility? What will happen to automobility in developing countries if they progress along similar paths as developed countries? To answer these questions, the authors developed a methodology to identify these factors, model their impact on developed countries, and forecast automobility (as defined by per capita vehicle-kilometers traveled [VKT]) in four developing countries. This methodology draws on quantitative analysis of historical automobility development in four country case studies (the United States, Australia, Germany, and Japan) that represent very different levels of per capita automobility, in combination with data derived from an expert-based qualitative approach. The authors used the latter to assess how these experiences may affect the future of automobility in the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China. According to this analysis, automobility levels in the four BRIC countries will fall between those of the United States (which has the highest per capita VKT level of the four case studies) and Japan (which has the lowest). Brazil is forecasted to have the highest per capita VKT and India the lowest." -- "Abstract" on web page.
Researchers developed two scenarios to envision the future of mobility in China in 2030. Economic growth, the presence of constraints on vehicle ownership and driving, and environmental conditions differentiate the scenarios. By making potential long-term mobility futures more vivid, the team sought to help decisionmakers at different levels of government and in the private sector better anticipate and prepare for change.
Identifies various challenges to the world community of transport survey specialists as well as the larger constituency of practitioners, planners, and decision-makers that it serves and provides potential solutions and recommendations for addressing them.
Because license plate reader (LPR) technology is relatively new in the United States, opportunities and obstacles in its use in law enforcement are still under exploration. To examine issues about this technology, RAND conducted interviews with law enforcement personnel, police officers, and others responsible for procuring, maintaining, and operating the systems.
Dependent-Head Synthesis in Nivkh has been awarded a prize of the Offermann-Hergarten Donation at the University of Cologne in 2004. The endowments are granted for outstanding innovative and comprehensibly documented research.This book offers an innovative approach to three interlaced topics: A systematic analysis of the morphosyntatic organization of Nivkh (Paleosiberian); a cross-linguistic investigation of complex noun forms (parallel to complex (polysynthetic) verb forms); and a typology of polysynthesis. Nivkh (Gilyak) is linguistically remarkable because of its highly complex word forms, both verbs and nouns. They are formed productively from ad hoc concatenation of lexical roots in dependent — head relations without further morphological marking: primary object — predicate, attribute - noun, noun — relational morpheme ("adposition"). After an in-depth examination of the wordhood of such complexes the morphological type of Nivkh is explored against the background of polysynthesis, noun incorporation, verb root serialization, noun complexes and head/dependent marking. For this purpose, a new delimitation and classification of polysynthesis is proposed on the basis of an evaluation of 75 languages. Besides contributing to a reconciliation of previous diametrically opposed approaches to polysynthesis, this study challenges some common preconceived notions with respect to how languages "should be".
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.