Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.
Written by some major contributors to the development of this class of graphical models, Chain Event Graphs introduces a viable and straightforward new tool for statistical inference, model selection and learning techniques. The book extends established technologies used in the study of discrete Bayesian Networks so that they apply in a much more general setting As the first book on Chain Event Graphs, this monograph is expected to become a landmark work on the use of event trees and coloured probability trees in statistics, and to lead to the increased use of such tree models to describe hypotheses about how events might unfold. Features: introduces a new and exciting discrete graphical model based on an event tree focusses on illustrating inferential techniques, making its methodology accessible to a very broad audience and, most importantly, to practitioners illustrated by a wide range of examples, encompassing important present and future applications includes exercises to test comprehension and can easily be used as a course book introduces relevant software packages Rodrigo A. Collazo is a methodological and computational statistician based at the Naval Systems Analysis Centre (CASNAV) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Christiane Görgen is a mathematical statistician at the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany. Jim Q. Smith is a professor of statistics at the University of Warwick, UK. He has published widely in the field of statistics, AI, and decision analysis and has written two other books, most recently Bayesian Decision Analysis: Principles and Practice (Cambridge University Press 2010).
When Meriwether Lewis began shopping for supplies and firearms to take on the Corps of Discovery’s journey west, his first stop was a federal arsenal. For the following twenty-nine months, from the time the Lewis and Clark expedition left Camp Dubois with a cannon salute in 1804 until it announced its return from the West Coast to St. Louis with a volley in 1806, weapons were a crucial component of the participants’ tool kit. In Weapons of the Lewis and Clark Expedition, historian Jim Garry describes the arms and ammunition the expedition carried and the use and care those weapons received. The Corps of Discovery’s purposes were to explore the Missouri and Columbia river basins, to make scientific observations, and to contact the tribes along the way for both science and diplomacy. Throughout the trek, the travelers used their guns to procure food—they could consume around 350 pounds of meat a day—and to protect themselves from dangerous animals. Firearms were also invaluable in encounters with Indian groups, as guns were one of the most sought-after trade items in the West. As Garry notes, the explorers’ willingness to demonstrate their weapons’ firepower probably kept meetings with some tribes from becoming violent. The mix of arms carried by the expedition extended beyond rifles and muskets to include pistols, knives, espontoons, a cannon, and blunderbusses. Each chapter focuses on one of the major types of weapons and weaves accounts from the expedition journals with the author’s knowledge gained from field-testing the muskets and rifles he describes. Appendices tally the weapons carried and explain how the expedition’s flintlocks worked. Weapons of the Lewis and Clark Expedition integrates original research with a lively narrative. This encyclopedic reference will be invaluable to historians and weaponry aficionados.
A straightforward, non-technical guide to the next major marketing tool Artificial Intelligence for Marketing presents a tightly-focused introduction to machine learning, written specifically for marketing professionals. This book will not teach you to be a data scientist—but it does explain how Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will revolutionize your company's marketing strategy, and teach you how to use it most effectively. Data and analytics have become table stakes in modern marketing, but the field is ever-evolving with data scientists continually developing new algorithms—where does that leave you? How can marketers use the latest data science developments to their advantage? This book walks you through the "need-to-know" aspects of Artificial Intelligence, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and the power of Machine Learning to show you how to make the most of this technology in a practical, tactical way. Simple illustrations clarify complex concepts, and case studies show how real-world companies are taking the next leap forward. Straightforward, pragmatic, and with no math required, this book will help you: Speak intelligently about Artificial Intelligence and its advantages in marketing Understand how marketers without a Data Science degree can make use of machine learning technology Collaborate with data scientists as a subject matter expert to help develop focused-use applications Help your company gain a competitive advantage by leveraging leading-edge technology in marketing Marketing and data science are two fast-moving, turbulent spheres that often intersect; that intersection is where marketing professionals pick up the tools and methods to move their company forward. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning provide a data-driven basis for more robust and intensely-targeted marketing strategies—and companies that effectively utilize these latest tools will reap the benefit in the marketplace. Artificial Intelligence for Marketing provides a nontechnical crash course to help you stay ahead of the curve.
An authoritative handbook that discusses: the decision to become a Web designer; operating a successful business from home ; making Web sites with an impact ; writing a business plan ; finding jobs and clients; and more.
Bayesian decision analysis supports principled decision making in complex domains. This textbook takes the reader from a formal analysis of simple decision problems to a careful analysis of the sometimes very complex and data rich structures confronted by practitioners. The book contains basic material on subjective probability theory and multi-attribute utility theory, event and decision trees, Bayesian networks, influence diagrams and causal Bayesian networks. The author demonstrates when and how the theory can be successfully applied to a given decision problem, how data can be sampled and expert judgements elicited to support this analysis, and when and how an effective Bayesian decision analysis can be implemented. Evolving from a third-year undergraduate course taught by the author over many years, all of the material in this book will be accessible to a student who has completed introductory courses in probability and mathematical statistics.
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