Jiaxiong Yao's Books

Illuminating Economic Growth

By: Yingyao Hu,Jiaxiong Yao

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This paper seeks to illuminate the uncertainty in official GDP per capita measures using auxiliary data. Using satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an additional measurement of true GDP per capita, we provide a statistical framework, in which the error in official GDP per capita may depend on the country’s statistical capacity and the relationship between nighttime lights and true GDP per capita can be nonlinear and vary with geographic location. This paper uses recently developed results for measurement error models to identify and estimate the nonlinear relationship between nighttime lights and true GDP per capita and the nonparametric distribution of errors in official GDP per capita data. We then construct more precise and robust measures of GDP per capita using nighttime lights, official national accounts data, statistical capacity, and geographic locations. We find that GDP per capita measures are less precise for middle and low income countries and nighttime lights can play a bigger role in improving such measures.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498302947

ISBN 13

9781498302944

Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

By: Robert C. M. Beyer,Yingyao Hu,Jiaxiong Yao

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Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

By: Robert C. M. Beyer,Yingyao Hu,Jiaxiong Yao

This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400211553

Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

By: Habtamu Fuje,Jiaxiong Yao,Seung Mo Choi,Hamza Mighri

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Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

By: Habtamu Fuje,Jiaxiong Yao,Seung Mo Choi,Hamza Mighri

Climate-induced disasters are causing increasingly frequent and intense economic damages, disproportionally affecting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) relative to advanced economies (AEs). However, the impact of various types of climate shocks on output growth and fiscal positions of EMDEs is not fully understood. This research analyzes the macro-fiscal implications of three common climate disasters (droughts, storms, and floods) using a combination of macroeconomic data and comprehensive ground and satellite disaster indicators spanning the past three decades across 164 countries. Across EMDEs, where agriculture tends to be the principal sector, a drought reduces output growth by 1.4 percentage points and government revenue by 0.7 percent of GDP as it erodes the tax bases of affected countries. Meanwhile, likely reflecting limited fiscal space to respond to a disaster, fiscal expenditure does not increase following a drought. A storm drags output growth in EMDEs, albeit with negligible impact on fiscal revenue, but government expenditure increases due to reconstruction and clean-up efforts. We find only limited impact of localized floods on growth and fiscal positions. In contrast, AEs tend to experience negligible growth and fiscal consequences from climate-induced shocks. As these shocks have much more detrimental effects in EMDEs, international support for disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation play a crucial role for these countries to confront climate change.

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ISBN 13

9798400262913

A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area

By: Mr.Nathaniel G Arnold,Ms.Bergljot B Barkbu,H. Elif Ture,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao

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A Central Fiscal Stabilization Capacity for the Euro Area

By: Mr.Nathaniel G Arnold,Ms.Bergljot B Barkbu,H. Elif Ture,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao

This note outlines a concrete proposal for a euro area CFC that could help smooth both country-specific and common shocks. Specifically, it proposes a macroeconomic stabilization fund financed by annual contributions from countries used to build up assets in good times and make transfers to countries in bad times, as well as a borrowing capacity in case large or persistent shocks exhaust the fund’s assets. The note also discusses several features aimed at avoiding permanent transfers between countries and making the CFC function as automatically as possible—to limit the scope for disputes over its operation—both of which are important points to make it politically acceptable.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484348206

ISBN 13

9781484348208

Electricity Consumption and Temperature: Evidence from Satellite Data

By: Jiaxiong Yao

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Electricity Consumption and Temperature: Evidence from Satellite Data

By: Jiaxiong Yao

Past studies on the relationship between electricity consumption and temperature have primarily focused on individual countries. Many regions are understudied as a result of data constraint. This paper studies the relationship on a global scale, overcoming the data constraint by using grid-level night light and temperature data. Mostly generated by electricity and recorded by satellites, night light has a strong linear relationship with electricity consumption and is correlated with both its extensive and intensive margins. Using night light as a proxy for electricity consumption at the grid level, we find: (1) there is a U-shaped relationship between electricity consumption and temperature; (2) the critical point of temperature for minimum electricity consumption is around 14.6°C for the world and it is higher in urban and more industrial areas; and (3) the impact of temperature on electricity consumption is persistent. Sub-Saharan African countries, while facing a large electricity deficit already, are particularly vulnerable to climate change: a 1°C increase in temperature is estimated to increase their electricity demand by 6.7% on average.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513568531

ISBN 13

9781513568539

Oil Prices and the Global Economy

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao

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Oil Prices and the Global Economy

By: Mr.Rabah Arezki,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Mr.Akito Matsumoto,Armen Nurbekyan,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475577745

ISBN 13

9781475577747

Unveiling the Informal Economy: An Augmented Factor Model Approach

By: Jiaxiong Yao

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Unveiling the Informal Economy: An Augmented Factor Model Approach

By: Jiaxiong Yao

This paper develops a new approach to estimating the degree of informality in an economy. It combines direct yet infrequent measures of the informal economy in micro data with an augmented factor model that links macro indicators of the informal economy to its causes. We show that the prevailing model used in the literature, the multiple indicators multiple causes model, is a special case of the augmented factor model and depicts an incomplete picture of the informal economy. Using the augmented factor model approach, we show that the dynamics of the informal economy is shaped by the strength of overall economic activity as well as the interplay between the formal and informal economies. Contrary to previous work that typically finds declining informality for most countries, we find that the degree of informality has increased for low-income countries for the past two decades.

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ISBN 13

9798400277160

Recent Trends of Informality in Greece

Evidence from Subnational Data

By: Mr. Larry Q Cui,Jiaxiong Yao

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Recent Trends of Informality in Greece

Evidence from Subnational Data

By: Mr. Larry Q Cui,Jiaxiong Yao

This paper explores the evolution of informality in Greece as it is widely considered one of the major structural impediments to fiscal capacity and sustainable growth. It finds that informality has dropped significantly in Greece in recent years, although there were temporary increases during the sovereign debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Lower informality is also found to be associated with higher subsequent per capita GDP growth and higher tax revenue. Moreover, Greece’s significant recent progress in digitalization appears to have helped reduce informality. There remains scope to further reduce informality by accelerating digitalization and the ongoing pro-growth structural reforms.

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ISBN 13

9798400267741

Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

By: Omer Faruk Akbal,Mr. Seung M Choi,Mr. Futoshi Narita,Jiaxiong Yao

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Panel Nowcasting for Countries Whose Quarterly GDPs are Unavailable

By: Omer Faruk Akbal,Mr. Seung M Choi,Mr. Futoshi Narita,Jiaxiong Yao

Quarterly GDP statistics facilitate timely economic assessment, but the availability of such data are limited for more than 60 developing economies, including about 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as more than two-thirds of fragile and conflict-affected states. To address this limited data availablity, this paper proposes a panel approach that utilizes a statistical relationship estimated from countries where data are available, to estimate quarterly GDP statistics for countries that do not publish such statistics by leveraging the indicators readily available for many countries. This framework demonstrates potential, especially when applied for similar country groups, and could provide valuable real-time insights into economic conditions supported by empirical evidence.

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ISBN 13

9798400245053

Geoeconomic Fragmentation: What’s at Stake for the EU

By: Chikako Baba,Ting Lan,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Florian Misch,Magali Pinat,Asghar Shahmoradi,Jiaxiong Yao,Ms. Rachel van Elkan

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Geoeconomic Fragmentation: What’s at Stake for the EU

By: Chikako Baba,Ting Lan,Ms. Aiko Mineshima,Florian Misch,Magali Pinat,Asghar Shahmoradi,Jiaxiong Yao,Ms. Rachel van Elkan

Geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) is becoming entrenched worldwide, and the European Union (EU) is not immune to its effects. This paper takes stock of GEF policies impinging on—and adopted by—the EU and considers how exposed the EU is through trade, financial and technological channels. Motivated by current policies adopted by other countries, the paper then simulates how various measures—raising costs of trade and technology transfer and fossil fuel prices, and imposition of sectoral subsidies—would affect the EU economy. Due to its high-degree of openness, the EU is found to be exposed to GEF through multiple channels, with simulated losses that differ significantly across scenarios. From a welfare perspective, this suggests the need for a cautious approach to GEF policies. The EU’s best defence against GEF is to strengthen the Single Market while advocating for a multilateral rules-based trading system.

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ISBN 13

9798400259098

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

By: Ali Alichi,Olivier Bizimana,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Kadir Tanyeri,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao,Fan Zhang

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Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

By: Ali Alichi,Olivier Bizimana,Mr.Douglas Laxton,Kadir Tanyeri,Hou Wang,Jiaxiong Yao,Fan Zhang

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475598564

ISBN 13

9781475598568

Equitable Access to Vaccines: Myth Or Reality?

By: Shushanik Hakobyan,Henry Rawlings,Jiaxiong Yao

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Equitable Access to Vaccines: Myth Or Reality?

By: Shushanik Hakobyan,Henry Rawlings,Jiaxiong Yao

Fighting the COVID-19 pandemic required vaccinations; however, ending it requires vaccination equality. The progress in vaccinations varies greatly across countries, with low- and middle-income countries having much lower vaccination rates than advanced countries. Initially, the limited vaccine supply was in part to blame for slow pace of vaccinations in low-income countries. But as the supply constraints eased toward the end of 2021, the focus has shifted to in-country distribution challenges and vaccine hesitancy. This paper quantifies the importance of various factors in driving vaccination rates across countries, including vaccine deliveries, demographic structure, health and transport infrastructure and development level. It then estimates the contribution of these factors to vaccination inequality. We show that much of the vaccination inequality in 2021-22 was driven by the lack of access to vaccines which is beyond countries’ control. And although vaccination inequality declined over time, access to vaccines remains the dominant driver of vaccination inequality.

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ISBN 13

9798400229015

Illuminating Economic Growth

By: Yingyao Hu,Jiaxiong Yao

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Illuminating Economic Growth

By: Yingyao Hu,Jiaxiong Yao

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498302947

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9781498302944

Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

By: Robert C. M. Beyer,Yingyao Hu,Jiaxiong Yao

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Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

By: Robert C. M. Beyer,Yingyao Hu,Jiaxiong Yao

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ISBN 13

9798400211553

Recent Trends of Informality in Greece

Evidence from Subnational Data

By: Mr. Larry Q Cui,Jiaxiong Yao

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Recent Trends of Informality in Greece

Evidence from Subnational Data

By: Mr. Larry Q Cui,Jiaxiong Yao

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9798400267741

Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Karim Barhoumi,Seung Mo Choi,Tara Iyer,Jiakun Li,Franck Ouattara,Mr. Andrew J Tiffin,Jiaxiong Yao

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Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

By: Karim Barhoumi,Seung Mo Choi,Tara Iyer,Jiakun Li,Franck Ouattara,Mr. Andrew J Tiffin,Jiaxiong Yao

The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.

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