This open access book focuses on the concepts, tools and techniques needed to successfully model ever-changing time-series data. It emphasizes the need for general models to account for the complexities of the modern world and how these can be applied to a range of issues facing Earth, from modelling volcanic eruptions, carbon dioxide emissions and global temperatures, to modelling unemployment rates, wage inflation and population growth. Except where otherwise noted, this book is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0.
Concise, engaging, and highly intuitive--this accessible guide equips you with an understanding of all the basic principles of forecasting Making accurate predictions about the economy has always been difficult, as F. A. Hayek noted when accepting his Nobel Prize in economics, but today forecasters have to contend with increasing complexity and unpredictable feedback loops. In this accessible and engaging guide, David Hendry, Michael Clements, and Jennifer Castle provide a concise and highly intuitive overview of the process and problems of forecasting. They explain forecasting concepts including how to evaluate forecasts, how to respond to forecast failures, and the challenges of forecasting accurately in a rapidly changing world. Topics covered include: What is a forecast? How are forecasts judged? And how can forecast failure be avoided? Concepts are illustrated using real-world examples including financial crises, the uncertainty of Brexit, and the Federal Reserve's record on forecasting. This is an ideal introduction for university students studying forecasting, practitioners new to the field and for general readers interested in how economists forecast.
Integrating analyses of clinical, political, historical, educational, social, economic, and legal aspects of ADHD and stimulant pharmacotherapy, Mayes and colleagues argue that a unique alignment of social and economic factors converged in the early 1990s with greater scientific knowledge to make ADHD the most prevalent pediatric mental disorder.
Since its inception in the early 1980s, capillary electrophoresis (CE) offers a great deal of flexibility as a modern analytical technique, and has found applications within many fields of analysis, particularly pharmaceutical science and biochemistry. Until now, food analysts have had difficulties in adopting the technique due to the lack of written guidance. Capillary Electrophoresis for Food Analysis: Method Development provides basic information and the support needed to enable food analysts to utilise the technique for the development of new separation methods. Designed specifically for the needs of food analysts, the book takes the reader step by step through the process of developing and troubleshooting CE methods. Worked examples are included to make it ideal as a laboratory companion as well as a library reference source.
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