The first in a series exploring the elements of a national strategy for U.S. foreign policy, this book examines the most critical decisions likely to face the next president. The book covers global and regional issues and spotlights the long-term policy issues and organizational, financial, and diplomatic challenges that will confront senior U.S. officials in 2017 and beyond.
This monograph is intended to help analysts and policymakers assess the political, demographic, and economic vulnerabilities of Iran to potential U.S. policy measures. The study dissects the political complexities and vulnerabilities of the Iranian government, evaluates ethnic and demographic tensions in Iran, and assesses recent economic developments and potential trajectories of future economic growth. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the U.S. government based on the analysis.
Since the 2011 revolution in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has emerged as a key political player. Although individuals under the age of 35 make up a large share of the membership, the group's strict hierarchy has led to disaffection among its youth. These members merit attention not only as a challenge to the Brotherhood's organizational cohesion, but as a potential conduit for expanding U.S. engagement with the group.
Regardless of its outcome, the Iraq War has had a transformative effect on the Middle East. To equip U.S. policymakers to better manage the war's long-term consequences, the authors analyzed its effects on the regional balance of power, local perceptions of U.S. credibility, the domestic stability of neighboring states, and trends in terrorism after conducting extensive interviews in the region and drawing from an array of local media sources.
Regional artists can play a positive role in shaping public debate and supporting democratic transition in the Middle East. This report explores the challenges artists have faced since the Arab uprisings, U.S. government programs to support arts in the region, and the wide array of nongovernmental activities to engage Arab artists, offering recommendations to improve support for these artists.
Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict, and external actors have become involved as well. RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play, including the actors, their motivations, and potential impact of their activities.
Daunting challenges lie ahead for Arab countries where revolutions have upended longstanding authoritarian regimes. This monograph aims to help policymakers understand the challenges ahead, form well-founded expectations, shape diplomatic approaches, and take practical steps to foster positive change.
A year after Qaddafi's death, the light-footprint approach adopted for Libya's postwar transition is facing its most serious test. Security, the political transition, and economic development all present challenges. The security situation requires immediate attention and could worsen still. Until the militias are brought under state control, progress on other fronts will be very difficult to achieve. In most cases, the appropriate approach is a combination of incentives and broad-based negotiation between Tripoli and militia leaders. Only in extreme cases should the use of force be considered. On the political front, Libya and international actors deserve credit for the successful elections in July, but the political challenges ahead are significant. Libya still needs to write a constitution, and in doing so, it must determine the degree to which power is centralized in Tripoli and how to ensure inclusive yet stable governing institutions. Libya also needs to begin rethinking the management of its economy, and especially of its energy resources, to maximize the benefit to its citizens, reduce corruption, and enable private enterprise to flourish in other areas, such as tourism. Libya also needs sustained assistance, mainly technical in nature, from the countries that helped oust Qaddafi lest the transition run off the rails. Despite its role in helping topple Qaddafi, NATO is absent from Libya today. A greater role for the alliance is worth exploring, for example training Libyan security officials and forces and providing technical assistance for security-sector reform. An international Friends of Libya conference on assistance to Libya is warranted. Post-conflict transitions normally span years, and Libya's will be no different. Nevertheless, if current challenges are handled adroitly, Libya could still emerge as a positive force for democratic stability in North Africa and a valuable partner against al-Qaeda.
As a means of helping U.S. policymakers and Middle East watchers better understand voting patterns in Egypt since the 2011 revolution, RAND researchers identified regional voting trends, where Islamist parties run strongest, and where non-Islamists are most competitive. Egypt appears headed toward a much more competitive political environment in which Islamists will be increasingly challenged to maintain their electoral edge.
This report assesses the challenges facing Libya since the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime and evaluates the impact of the limited international role in efforts to overcome them. It also sketches possible future roles for the international community.
The cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)--defined here as the ability of the six GCC member states to act together or in parallel--has significant consequences for regional stability and U.S. interests. This report examines factors that bind and divide the six GCC states--Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates--and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years. Addressing the political, economic, and security dimensions of GCC relationships, the study provides a framework for understanding intra-GCC dynamics, an expectation of future developments, and policy recommendations for enhancing stability and U.S. regional interests"--Publisher's description.
As Iran?'s nuclear program evolves, U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and policy trade-offs. These policy choices could involve dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons; deterring Iran from using its nuclear weapons, if it were to acquire them; and reassuring U.S. regional partners. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen.
Significant gaps exist in the ability of the United States and its allies to deter or defeat aggression that could threaten national interests. For example, NATO members Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania remain vulnerable to Russian invasion. South Korea is vulnerable to North Korea's artillery. China's neighbors — especially Taiwan — are vulnerable to coercion and aggression. Violent extremists continue to pose a threat in the Middle East. Solutions to these problems will take both money and time. In this report, RAND researchers analyze the specific technological, doctrinal, and budgetary gaps between the stated strategic and defense policies of the United States and the resources and capabilities that would be required to implement those policies successfully. Absent a change in administration policy or a new political consensus in favor of a defense buildup, there will not be enough resources to close the gap between stated U.S. aims and the military capabilities needed to achieve them. This leaves the Trump administration and this Congress with some difficult choices. The United States could decide to focus primarily on its own security, devoting to allies and partners only those forces and capabilities that could be easily spared. At the other end of the spectrum, the Trump administration could take the central role in defending U.S. allies against aggression by Russia, China, and other potential adversaries. The hard-to-find middle ground would be to provide the military with sufficient capabilities to ensure that aggression that imperils U.S. interests in critical regions would fail while helping allies build the capacity to do more for their own and the collective defense.
Under a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would cooperate more with other powers, reduce its forward military presence, and end some security commitments. The authors identify unanswered questions about such a strategy.
As Irans nuclear program evolves, U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and trade-offs. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen.
U.S. policy toward the Middle East has relied heavily on military instruments of power and has focused on regional threats--particularly the Iranian threat--with the goal of keeping partners on "our side." These long-standing policies have largely fallen short of meeting core U.S. interests and adapting to new regional realities and strategic imperatives. RAND researchers offer an alternative framework, suggesting that the U.S. strategic priority must center on reducing regional conflict and the drivers of conflict. This revised strategic approach puts a greater focus on addressing conflict and socioeconomic challenges that are creating unsustainable pressures on the region's states and immense suffering among its people. Researchers analyze how the tools of U.S. policy--political, security, economic, diplomatic, and informational instruments--would need to adjust to more effectively address such challenges in ways that are mindful of limited resources at home. Researchers also examine how the United States deals with both partners and adversaries in and outside the region and consider how to better leverage policies to the benefit of U.S. interests and the region. The researchers recommend specific actions organized into the following three pillars: (1) shifting resources from the current heavy reliance on military tools to a more balanced approach that prioritizes economic investments, governance, diplomacy, and programs focused on people; (2) favoring a long-term time horizon to reduce regional conflict and support growth and development, even at the cost of short-term risks; and (3) working multilaterally with global and regional partners to address key challenges." -- from the publisher.
The authors assessed humanitarian needs in Eastern Syria's Middle Euphrates River Valley and examined how locally focused stabilization efforts might be orchestrated to help preclude the Islamic State's recapture of territory.
This report assesses likely demographic and economic trends in the Arab world through 2020, focusing on changes that are likely to affect U.S. defense planning and U.S. policy in the region.
An opinionated, illustrated guide for cocktail beginners, covering the basics of spirits plus making and drinking cocktails, written by celebrated craft cocktail bartender Jeffrey Morgenthaler. This easy-reading, colorful introduction for cocktail beginners, with approximately 100 succinct lessons on drinking culture, spirits, and cocktail making, is delivered in the pithy, wry style Morgenthaler is known for in his instructional videos and writing for beverage publications. Novices will learn how to order a drink, how to drink with the boss, how to drink at the airport, and more. Twelve perfect starter recipes—ranging from a Dry Gin Martini to a Batched Old-Fashioned (perfect for the flask)—plus thirty original illustrations round out this distillation for new enthusiasts.
Describes the creation of developmentally appropriate criteria used to identify and screen Arabic-language works for children that promote tolerance and critical thinking and the characteristics of the materials that were found. The authors present several examples of works that met the criteria, discuss barriers that prevent the development and dissemination of more such works, and suggest ways to address and overcome these barriers.
After popular uprisings toppled authoritarian leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya in 2011 and precipitated a negotiated power transfer in Yemen in 2012, it quickly became commonplace to observe that ousting a disliked regime was easier than replacing it with something better. The challenges that come after regime change, building new, more open political systems and responding to popular expectations of improved living conditions, have come to the fore. Political and social upheavals have been on full display as politicians, activists, and publics at large have struggled to define new rules for wielding government power and new relationships between states and societies. Against this backdrop, the RAND Corporation and the Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization jointly convened a workshop in Istanbul, Turkey, on April 24, 2013, to provide a private setting in which policymakers, opinion leaders, and experts from Arab countries could reflect collaboratively on how to overcome obstacles to democratization. Participants came from Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Jordan, and included political party leaders, former ministers, current officials and senior political advisers, heads of research institutions, academics, and columnists. Participants' political affiliations varied considerably on the ideological spectrum, though the nature of the discussions was notably pragmatic rather than ideological.
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