Jan Vlcek's Books

Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

By: Michal Andrle,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.R. Armando Morales,Rafael Portillo,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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Forecasting and Monetary Policy Analysis in Low-Income Countries

Food and non-Food Inflation in Kenya

By: Michal Andrle,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.R. Armando Morales,Rafael Portillo,Mr.Jan Vlcek

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in low-income countries and apply it to Kenya. We use the model to run several policy-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest rates) to recover a model-based decomposition of most variables into trends (or potential values) and temporary movements (or gaps)—including for the international and domestic relative price of food. Second, we use the filtration exercise to recover the sequence of domestic and foreign macroeconomic shocks that account for business cycle dynamics in Kenya over the last few years, with a special emphasis on the various factors (international food prices, monetary policy) driving inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed given the inflationary pressures at the end of our sample (2011Q2). We find that while imported food price shocks have been an important source of inflation, both in 2008 and more recently, accommodating monetary policy has also played a role, most notably through its effect on the nominal exchange rate. The model correctly predicted that a policy tightening was required, although the actual interest rate increase was larger. We discuss implications for the use of model-based policy analysis in low income countries.

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106

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475516525

ISBN 13

9781475516524

Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

By: Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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Decomposing the Inflation Dynamics in the Philippines

By: Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Philippe D Karam,Mr.Jan Vlcek

Inflation rates rose sharply in the Philippines during 2018. Understanding the demand and supply sources of inflation pressures is key to monetary policy response. Qualitatively, indicators have pointed to evidence of inflation pressures from both sides in 2018, with the supply factors, by and large, associated with commodity-price shocks and demand factors deduced from gleaning at the wider non-oil trade deficits seen in the Philippines. Quantitatively, we deploy a semi-structural model to decompose the contributions of various shocks to inflation. Our main findings are (1) supply factors (mainly global commodity prices) played a prominent role in explaining the rise in inflation in 2018; (2) demand factors also contributed to inflation in a non-negligible way, justifying the need for tighter monetary policy in 2018; (3) the size of the estimated output gap (an important indicator of demand pressures) could be larger, when considering the widening trade deficits in 2018; and (4) a delayed monetary policy tightening can be costly in terms of higher inflation rates, requiring larger and more aggressive interest rate hikes to bring inflation under control, based on a counterfactual exercise.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513508016

ISBN 13

9781513508016

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan

By: Adel Al-Sharkas,Nedal Al-Azzam,Sarah AlTalafha,Rasha Abu Shawish,Ahmad Shalein,Auday Rawwaqah,Amany Al-Rawashdeh,Daniel Baksa,Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mr. Jan Vlcek

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An Extended Quarterly Projection Model for the Central Bank of Jordan

By: Adel Al-Sharkas,Nedal Al-Azzam,Sarah AlTalafha,Rasha Abu Shawish,Ahmad Shalein,Auday Rawwaqah,Amany Al-Rawashdeh,Daniel Baksa,Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mr. Jan Vlcek

The Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has developed a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to serve as a reliable analytical framework for macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and decision-making under a pegged exchange rate regime. At the heart of the FPAS is the CBJ’s extended Jordan Analysis Model (JAM2.0). The model captures the monetary transmission mechanism and provides a consistent monetary policy framework that uses the exchange rate as an effective nominal anchor. This paper outlines the structure and properties of JAM2.0 and emphasizes the enhanced interplay and tradeoffs among monetary, fiscal, and foreign exchange management policies. Simulation and forecasting exercises demonstrate JAM2.0’s ability to match key stylized facts of the Jordanian economy, produce accurate forecasts of important macroeconomic variables, and explain the critical relationships among policies.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 13

9798400252716

Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve

By: Mr.Ales Bulir,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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Monetary Policy Is Not Always Systematic and Data-Driven: Evidence from the Yield Curve

By: Mr.Ales Bulir,Mr.Jan Vlcek

Does monetary policy react systematically to macroeconomic innovations? In a sample of 16 countries – operating under various monetary regimes – we find that monetary policy decisions, as expressed in yield curve movements, do react to macroeconomic innovations and these reactions reflect the monetary policy regime. While we find evidence of the primacy of the price stability objective in the inflation targeting countries, links to inflation and the output gap are generally weaker and less systematic in money-targeting and multiple-objective countries.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513522019

ISBN 13

9781513522012

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics

A Narrative Approach

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Ms.Luisa Charry,Mr.Rafael A Portillo,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Tropics

A Narrative Approach

By: Mr.Andrew Berg,Ms.Luisa Charry,Mr.Rafael A Portillo,Mr.Jan Vlcek

Many central banks in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are modernising their monetary policy frameworks. Standard statistical procedures have had limited success in identifying the channels of monetary transmission in such countries. Here we take a narrative approach, following Romer and Romer (1989), and center on a significant tightening of monetary policy that took place in 2011 in four members of the East African Community: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. We find clear evidence of the transmission mechanism in most of the countries, and argue that deviations can be explained by differences in the policy regime in place.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484398130

ISBN 13

9781484398135

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

By: Karel Musil,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

By: Karel Musil,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr.Jan Vlcek

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484389271

ISBN 13

9781484389270

An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

By: Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr. Jan Vlcek

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An Extended Quarterly Projection Model: Credit Cycle, Macrofinancial Linkages and Macroprudential Measures: The Case of the Philippines

By: Mr. Philippe D Karam,Mikhail Pranovich,Mr. Jan Vlcek

We extend a modern practical Quarterly Projection Model to study credit cycle dynamics and risks, focusing on macrofinancial linkages and the role of macroprudential policy in achieving economic and financial stability. We tailor the model to the Philippines and evaluate the model’s properties along several dimensions. The model produces plausible dynamics and sensible forecasts. This along with its simplicity makes it useful for policy analysis. In particular, it should help policymakers understand the quantitative implications of responding to changes in domestic financial conditions, along with other shocks, through the joint use of macroprudential and monetary policies.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1589068718

ISBN 13

9781589068711

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System

an Application to Kenya

By: Michal Andrle,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Enrico Berkes,Mr.Rafael A Portillo,Mr.Jan Vlcek,Mr.R. Armando Morales

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Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System

an Application to Kenya

By: Michal Andrle,Mr.Andrew Berg,Mr.Enrico Berkes,Mr.Rafael A Portillo,Mr.Jan Vlcek,Mr.R. Armando Morales

We extend the framework in Andrle and others (2013) to incorporate an explicit role for money targets and target misses in the analysis of monetary policy in low-income countries (LICs), with an application to Kenya. We provide a general specification that can nest various types of money targeting (ranging from targets based on optimal money demand forecasts to those derived from simple money growth rules), interest-rate based frameworks, and intermediate cases. Our framework acknowledges that ex-post adherence to targets is in itself an objective of policy in LICs; here we provide a novel interpretation of target misses in terms of structural shocks (aggregate demand, policy, shocks to money demand, etc). In the case of Kenya, we find that: (i) the setting of money targets is consistent with money demand forecasting, (ii) targets have not played a systematic role in monetary policy, and (iii) target misses mainly reflect shocks to money demand. Simulations of the model under alternative policy specifications show that the stronger the ex-post target adherence, the greater the macroeconomic volatility. Our findings highlight the benefits of a model-based approach to monetary policy analysis in LICs, including in countries with money-targeting frameworks.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475516681

ISBN 13

9781475516685

Monetary Transmission

Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different?

By: Mr.Ales Bulir,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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Monetary Transmission

Are Emerging Market and Low Income Countries Different?

By: Mr.Ales Bulir,Mr.Jan Vlcek

We use two alternative representations of the yield curve to test the functioning of the interest rate transmission mechanism along the yield curve based on government paper in a sample of emerging market and low-income countries. We find a robust link from shortterm policy and interbank rates to longer-term bond yields. Two policy implications emerge. First, the presence of well-developed secondary financial markets does not seem to affect transmission of short term rates along the yield curve. Second, the strength of the transmission mechanism seems to be affected by the choice of the monetary regime: countries with a credible inflation targeting regime seem to have “better behaved” yield curves than those with other monetary regimes.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513574884

ISBN 13

9781513574882

Physical and personality traits of Charles IV, Holy Roman Emperor and King of Bohemia

A medical-anthropological investigation

By: Emanuel Vlček,Jan Royt

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Physical and personality traits of Charles IV, Holy Roman Emperor and King of Bohemia

A medical-anthropological investigation

By: Emanuel Vlček,Jan Royt

On the occasion of the 600th anniversary of the death of Charles IV in 1978, Professor Emanuel Vlček, MD, DSc conducted research of the skeletal remains of the Pater patriae, which brought a number of surprising findings, important to a whole range of scientific disciplines at Charles University, and cast light on significant events in Charles’ life as well as on the cause of his death. The research has presented this prominent ruler as a human being, an ordinary mortal, suffering from many injuries and chronic diseases with which he was coping with indefatigable will, keeping in mind his commitments to God and Kingdom of Bohemia. It may be that all the pain and suffering also influenced his spirituality and his efforts to find salvation by attempting to realize his concept of the supreme being (Imitatio Christi). The results of the research by Professor Vlček have been repeatedly published, but until now we have had no representative publication in English. The forthcoming celebrations of the 700th anniversary of Charles’ birth offer an opportunity to fill this gap.

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Charles University in Prague, Karolinum Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

8024633779

ISBN 13

9788024633770

Medieval Costume, Armour and Weapons

By: Eduard Wagner,Zoroslava Drobná,Jan Durdík

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Medieval Costume, Armour and Weapons

By: Eduard Wagner,Zoroslava Drobná,Jan Durdík

Over 400 illustrations in this superb pictorial archive trace the evolution of clothing styles, armor, and weapons during the medieval period in Central Europe. Unsurpassed in its comprehensiveness and variety, the volume draws upon a wealth of authentic primary sources, including written accounts, contemporary paintings and sculpture, and the remains of textiles and other relics. A profusion of apparel and weaponry are depicted, ranging from the simple tunics and robes of peasants, blacksmiths, gardeners, shoemakers, fishermen, and other common laborers to the fur-lined cloaks and brocaded garments of the aristocracy. Tools and utensils used by peasants as well as the battle equipment and armor of warriors are also pictured and described, with special emphasis on how these weapons were handled, carried, and used in combat. Accompanied by a scrupulously researched and well-documented text, these royalty-free illustrations not only offer general readers an intriguing and authentic insight into a past age but also provide artists, historians, students of weaponry, and theater and film professionals with a highly accurate source of reference material.

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462

Publisher

Courier Corporation

Published Date

ISBN 10

0486320251

ISBN 13

9780486320250

Militant Right-Wing Extremism in Putin’s Russia

Legacies, Forms and Threats

By: Miroslav Mareš,Martin Laryš,Jan Holzer

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Militant Right-Wing Extremism in Putin’s Russia

Legacies, Forms and Threats

By: Miroslav Mareš,Martin Laryš,Jan Holzer

Militancy continues to be characteristic of many supporters of the Russian far right, encompassing a belligerent rhetoric, a strong perception of participants as political warriors and often the use of physical violence. How serious a threat does Russian militant right-wing extremism pose to Russia and the World, and how has the level of threat changed over time? This book addresses this question by exploring right-wing extremism in Russia, its historical context and its resurgence over the past thirty years. Outlining the legacies and forms presented by current right-wing extremism, with a particular focus on militant extremism, it employs a historical, descriptive method to analyse the threats and risks posed. Presented within the framework of research on extremism and political violence related to the Russian political thought, the book outlines the key criteria of identifying threats, such as the level of violence, ability to gain supporters and penetration of governing elites. Primarily aimed at researchers and academics in political science, extremism, security studies and the history of Russia and Eastern, Central and South-East Europe, this book will also be of interest to political journalists and practitioners in international security.

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584

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

0429953623

ISBN 13

9780429953620

On Being Human(e)

Comenius’ Pedagogical Humanization as an Anthropological Problem

By: Jan Hábl

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On Being Human(e)

Comenius’ Pedagogical Humanization as an Anthropological Problem

By: Jan Hábl

There is a difference between that which is and that which is to be. Anthropologically: there is a way I am, and the way I am to be, or not to be. How are we to explain this? This book presents the argument that human nature is both complex and complicated in at least two specific ways--ontologically and ethically. In our being we are indisputably good, dignified, worthy, important, or even noble. But in our morality we are ambivalent--capable of both good and evil, the humane and the inhumane. In his paramount work Jan Amos Comenius expresses the goal of his lifelong endeavor: "to help keep man from falling into a non-man" (Pampaedia). If human beings are to become what they ought to be, they need to be educated towards humanity, says Comenius. But the fundamental question is, what is a human being? And what ought one to be? "Salt ought to be salty. A river ought to be clear. A knife ought to be sharp. But what ought a person to be?" What is the essence of our humanity? And how can that be cultivated or educated? This book presents Comenius's answers to these questions.

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192

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Wipf and Stock Publishers

Published Date

ISBN 10

1532600577

ISBN 13

9781532600579

Output and Inflation Co-movement

An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts

By: Michal Andrle,Jan Bruha,Mr.Serhat Solmaz

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Output and Inflation Co-movement

An Update on Business-Cycle Stylized Facts

By: Michal Andrle,Jan Bruha,Mr.Serhat Solmaz

What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475569165

ISBN 13

9781475569162

Minorities and Law in Czechoslovakia, 1918–1992

By: Jan Kuklík,René Petráš

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Minorities and Law in Czechoslovakia, 1918–1992

By: Jan Kuklík,René Petráš

Ethnic minority issues played an important role in the history of Czechoslovakia, from 1918, during World War II and in the years immediately following it. Czechoslovakia became a model for solving ethnic and minority problems and legal regulations had always played a key role in the status of minorities. This book, which deals with issues concerning ethnic and language minorities in Czechoslovakia from a long-term perspective, is primarily intended for foreign readers. In recent years, ethnic minority issues are once again becoming relevant in Europe and thorough knowledge of earlier problems and solutions may facilitate further examination of the current problems.

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302

Publisher

Charles University in Prague, Karolinum Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

8024635836

ISBN 13

9788024635835

The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking

By: David G. Mayes,Pierre L. Siklos,Jan-Egbert Sturm

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The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking

By: David G. Mayes,Pierre L. Siklos,Jan-Egbert Sturm

The economic influence of central banks has received ever more attention given their centrality during the financial crises that led to the Great Recession, strains in the European Union, and the challenges to the Euro. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice and covers a wide range of topics that will provide insight to students, scholars, and practitioners. As an up to date reference of the current and potential challenges faced by central banks in the conduct of monetary policy and in the search for the maintenance of financial system stability, this Oxford Handbook covers a wide range of essential issues. The first section provides insights into central bank governance, the differing degrees of central bank independence, and the internal dynamics of their decision making. The next section focuses on questions of whether central banks can ameliorate fiscal burdens, various strategies to affect monetary policy, and how the global financial crisis affected the relationship between the traditional focus on inflation targeting and unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), foreign exchange market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. The next two sections turn to central bank communications and management of expectations and then mechanisms of policy transmission. The fifth part explores the challenges of recent developments in the economy and debates about the roles central banks should play, focusing on micro- and macro-prudential arguments. The implications of recent developments for policy modeling are covered in the last section. The breadth and depth enhances understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing central banks.

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809

Published Date

ISBN 10

0190626194

ISBN 13

9780190626198

Mycorrhizal Mediation of Soil

Fertility, Structure, and Carbon Storage

By: Nancy Collins Johnson,Catherine Gehring,Jan Jansa

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Mycorrhizal Mediation of Soil

Fertility, Structure, and Carbon Storage

By: Nancy Collins Johnson,Catherine Gehring,Jan Jansa

Mycorrhizal Mediation of Soil: Fertility, Structure, and Carbon Storage offers a better understanding of mycorrhizal mediation that will help inform earth system models and subsequently improve the accuracy of global carbon model predictions. Mycorrhizas transport tremendous quantities of plant-derived carbon below ground and are increasingly recognized for their importance in the creation, structure, and function of soils. Different global carbon models vary widely in their predictions of the dynamics of the terrestrial carbon pool, ranging from a large sink to a large source. This edited book presents a unique synthesis of the influence of environmental change on mycorrhizas across a wide range of ecosystems, as well as a clear examination of new discoveries and challenges for the future, to inform land management practices that preserve or increase below ground carbon storage. - Synthesizes the abundance of research on the influence of environmental change on mycorrhizas across a wide range of ecosystems from a variety of leading international researchers - Focuses on the specific role of mycorrhizal fungi in soil processes, with an emphasis on soil development and carbon storage, including coverage of cutting-edge methods and perspectives - Includes a chapter in each section on future avenues for further study

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526

Publisher

Elsevier

Published Date

ISBN 10

0128043830

ISBN 13

9780128043837

Aging of the Genome

The dual role of DNA in life and death

By: Jan Vijg

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Aging of the Genome

The dual role of DNA in life and death

By: Jan Vijg

Aging has long since been ascribed to the gradual accumulation of DNA mutations in the genome of somatic cells. However, it is only recently that the necessary sophisticated technology has been developed to begin testing this theory and its consequences. Vijg critically reviews the concept of genomic instability as a possible universal cause of aging in the context of a new, holistic understanding of genome functioning in complex organisms resulting from recent advances in functional genomics and systems biology. It provides an up-to-date synthesis of current research, as well as a look ahead to the design of strategies to retard or reverse the deleterious effects of aging. This is particularly important in a time when we are urgently trying to unravel the genetic component of aging-related diseases. Moreover, there is a growing public recognition of the imperative of understanding more about the underlying biology of aging, driven by continuing demographic change.

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384

Publisher

OUP Oxford

Published Date

ISBN 10

0191524581

ISBN 13

9780191524585

The Irish Franciscans in Prague 1629–1786

By: Jan Pařez,Hedvika Kuchařová

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The Irish Franciscans in Prague 1629–1786

By: Jan Pařez,Hedvika Kuchařová

At the end of the sixteenth century, Queen Elizabeth I forced the Irish Franciscans into exile. Of the four continental provinces to which the Irish Franciscans fled, the Prague Franciscan College of the Immaculate Conception of the Virgin Mary was the largest in its time. This monograph documents this intense point of contact between two small European lands, Ireland and Bohemia. The Irish exiles changed the course of Bohemian history in significant ways, both positive — the Irish students and teachers of medicine who contributed to Bohemia’s culture and sciences— and negative — the Irish officers who participated in the murder of Albrecht of Valdštejn and their successors who served in the Imperial forces. Dealing with a hitherto largely neglected theme, Parez and Kucharová attempt to place the Franciscan College within Bohemian history and to document the activities of its members. This wealth of historical material from the Czech archives, presented in English for the first time, will be of great aid for international researchers, particularly those interested in Bohemia or the Irish diaspora.

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225

Publisher

Charles University in Prague, Karolinum Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

8024626764

ISBN 13

9788024626765

Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform

A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe

By: Michal Andrle,Vladimír Tomšík,Jan Vlcek

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Banks’ Adjustment to Basel III Reform

A Bank-Level Perspective for Emerging Europe

By: Michal Andrle,Vladimír Tomšík,Jan Vlcek

The paper seeks to identify strategies of commercial banks in response to higher capital requirements of Basel III reform and its phase-in. It focuses on a sample of nine EU emerging market countries and picks up 5 largest banks in each country assessing their response. The paper finds that all banking sectors raised CAR ratios mainly through retained earnings. In countries where the banking sector struggled with profitability, banks have resorted to issuance of new equity or shrunk the size of their balance sheets to meet the higher capital-adequacy requirements. Worries echoed at the early stage of Basel III compilation, namely that commercial banks would shrink their balance sheet by reducing their lending to meet stricter capital requirements, did materialize only in banks struggling with profitability.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475577524

ISBN 13

9781475577525

Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks

Recent Developments and Future Directions

By: Mr.Scott Roger,Mr.Jan Vlcek

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Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks

Recent Developments and Future Directions

By: Mr.Scott Roger,Mr.Jan Vlcek

This paper surveys dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with financial frictions in use by central banks and discusses priorities for future development of such models for the purpose of monetary and financial stability analysis. It highlights the need to develop macrofinancial models which allow analysis of the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy tools and to evaluate elements of the Basel III reforms as a priority. The paper also reviews the main approaches to introducing financial frictions into general equilibrium models.

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