Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy. The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system. A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s. A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.
Originally published in 1942, this landmark volume makes available the entire business-cycle analysis of the Dutch economist, Jan Tinbergen, whose work in economic dynamics stimulated a new school of econometric research. The book explains what is typical and common in economic movements - the system of supply and demand schedules used to describe a market, certain technical relations, and 'balance equations'.
The economic influence of central banks has received ever more attention given their centrality during the financial crises that led to the Great Recession, strains in the European Union, and the challenges to the Euro. The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice and covers a wide range of topics that will provide insight to students, scholars, and practitioners. As an up to date reference of the current and potential challenges faced by central banks in the conduct of monetary policy and in the search for the maintenance of financial system stability, this Oxford Handbook covers a wide range of essential issues. The first section provides insights into central bank governance, the differing degrees of central bank independence, and the internal dynamics of their decision making. The next section focuses on questions of whether central banks can ameliorate fiscal burdens, various strategies to affect monetary policy, and how the global financial crisis affected the relationship between the traditional focus on inflation targeting and unconventional policy instruments such as quantitative easing (QE), foreign exchange market interventions, negative interest rates, and forward guidance. The next two sections turn to central bank communications and management of expectations and then mechanisms of policy transmission. The fifth part explores the challenges of recent developments in the economy and debates about the roles central banks should play, focusing on micro- and macro-prudential arguments. The implications of recent developments for policy modeling are covered in the last section. The breadth and depth enhances understanding of the challenges and opportunities facing central banks.
Research in the statistical analysis of extreme values has flourished over the past decade: new probability models, inference and data analysis techniques have been introduced; and new application areas have been explored. Statistics of Extremes comprehensively covers a wide range of models and application areas, including risk and insurance: a major area of interest and relevance to extreme value theory. Case studies are introduced providing a good balance of theory and application of each model discussed, incorporating many illustrated examples and plots of data. The last part of the book covers some interesting advanced topics, including time series, regression, multivariate and Bayesian modelling of extremes, the use of which has huge potential.
Nearly all countries in the world are experiencing an aging of their populations due to declining fertility rates and rising longevity. Aging has been the subject of much discussion in the last decade, often expressed in alarmist language. On Global Aging presents a more optimistic look on the effects of aging on the economy. Nonetheless aging will pose major policy challenges on the well functioning of the economy and the society as a whole. The book describes and analyses the effects of population aging on social and economic issues, labour and financial markets, pension and health care expenditures and public finance, and the welfare of people. It surveys also the policy measures in the face of aging to secure the resource base. They are mainly aimed at increasing labour force participation and above all at stimulating productivity growth. The book is a valuable resource for practitioners and policy makers and the wider academic community, economists, social scientists, gerontologists and others.
The quality of life for millions of people all over the globe has been improved by the work of diligent biologists and doctors working in the many branches of life science. An improved knowledge of how the body functions at the genetic, cellular, physiological and behavioural levels and a greater understanding of disease and pharmacology have resulted in a reduction in human suffering. The way is being paved for the effective treatment of some of the greatest health problems of the late twentieth century ? cancer, AIDS and diseases caused by parasites.These two volumes are collections of the Nobel Lectures delivered by the laureates, together with their biographies, portraits and the presentation speeches for the periods 1971 ? 1980 and 1981 ? 1990 respectively. Each Nobel Lecture is based on the work for which the laureate was awarded the prize. New biographical data of the laureate are also included. These volumes of inspiring lectures by outstanding scientists should be on the bookshelf of every keen student, teacher and professor of biological and medical sciences as well as of those in related fields.During the period 1971 ? 1980 important areas of research being recognized were as diverse as hormone action and radioimmunoassays, infectious diseases, molecular genetics, immunology, computerized tomography and social behaviour. The laureates according to the specific year are: (1971) E W SUTHERLAND JR ? for his discoveries concerning the mechanisms of the action of hormones; (1972) G M EDELMAN & R R PORTER ? for their discoveries concerning the chemical structure of antibodies; (1973) K VON FRISCH, K LORENZ & N TINBERGEN ? for their discoveries concerning organization and elicitation of individual and social behaviour patterns; (1974) A CLAUDE, C DE DUVE & G E PALADE ? for their discoveries concerning the structural and functional organization of the cell; (1975) D BALTIMORE, R DULBECCO & H M TEMIN ? for their discoveries concerning the interaction between tumour viruses and genetic material of the cell; (1976) B S BLUMBERG & D C GAJDUSEK ? for their discoveries concerning new mechanisms for the origin and dissemination of infectious diseases; (1977) R GUILLEMIN & A V SCHALLY ? for their discoveries concerning the peptide hormone production of the brain; and R S YALOW ? for the development of radioimmunoassays of peptide hormones; (1978) W ARBER, D NATHANS & H O SMITH ? for the discovery of restriction enzymes and their application to problems of molecular genetics; (1979) A M CORMACK & G N HOUNSFIELD ? for the development of computer assisted tomography; (1980) B BENACERRAF, J DAUSSET & G D SNELL ? for their discoveries concerning genetically determined structures on the cell surface that regulate immunological reactions.
In this era of ongoing globalization a coherent vision on Europe's changing geo-economy is more important than ever before. Drawing on the work of Schumpeter, Fourasti'e and Perroux, the book at hand offers a new and policy-oriented perspective on regional economic change in Europe. Conceptually, it develops a middle-range theory by extending Schumpeter's vision with a sectoral and spatial dimension. This neo-Schumpeterian framework is concretized by exploring fifty years of structural change in Sardinia, the Ruhrgebiet and the Öresund.
Music in Evolution and Evolution in Music by Steven Jan is a comprehensive account of the relationships between evolutionary theory and music. Examining the ‘evolutionary algorithm’ that drives biological and musical-cultural evolution, the book provides a distinctive commentary on how musicality and music can shed light on our understanding of Darwin’s famous theory, and vice-versa. Comprised of seven chapters, with several musical examples, figures and definitions of terms, this original and accessible book is a valuable resource for anyone interested in the relationships between music and evolutionary thought. Jan guides the reader through key evolutionary ideas and the development of human musicality, before exploring cultural evolution, evolutionary ideas in musical scholarship, animal vocalisations, music generated through technology, and the nature of consciousness as an evolutionary phenomenon. A unique examination of how evolutionary thought intersects with music, Music in Evolution and Evolution in Music is essential to our understanding of how and why music arose in our species and why it is such a significant presence in our lives.
Epigenetics is currently one of the fastest-growing fields in the sciences. Epigenetic information not only controls DNA expression but links genetic factors with the environmental experiences that influence the traits and characteristics of an individual. What we eat, where we work, and how we live affects not only the activity of our genes but that of our offspring as well. This discovery has imposed a revolutionary theoretical shift on modern biology, especially on evolutionary theory. It has helped to uncover the developmental processes leading to cancer, obesity, schizophrenia, alcoholism, and aging, and to facilitate associated medial applications such as stem cell therapy and cloning. Above the Gene, Beyond Biology explores how biologists in this booming field investigate and explain living systems. Jan Baedke offers the first comprehensive philosophical discussion of epigenetic concepts, explanations, and methodologies so that we can better understand this “epigenetic turn” in the life sciences from a philosophical perspective.
This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro area business cycle.
Jan L. van Zanden in The Economic History of the Netherlands 1914-1995 answers these questions. In the first four chapters the long development of the economy is analysed in detail. Central to this part of the book are the rise (and decline) of managerial enterprise; the growth (and fall) of trade unions; and the expansion (and crisis) of the welfare state. The particular Dutch features of these institutional changes are highlighted. The second part of the book deals with different periods of growth (from 1914-1929, and 1950-1973), and relative stagnation (1929-1950, and 1973-1995). Moreover, van Zanden examines the role the Netherlands played in the process of European integration, and gives an explanation of the success of the 'Dutch job machine' in the 1980s and 1990s.
This volume presents a state-of-the-art debate on the controversial topic of development aid. The contributors are all experts in the field of international development. Presents some challenging conclusions about the role that aid plays in catalysing, or stifling, development. Represents a wide range of different analytical perspectives.
This book presents a new approach that can be applied to complex, integrated individual and social human processes. It provides an alternative means of addressing complexity, better suited for its purpose than and effectively complementing traditional strategies involving isolation and separation assumptions. Network-oriented modeling allows high-level cognitive, affective and social models in the form of (cyclic) graphs to be constructed, which can be automatically transformed into executable simulation models. The modeling format used makes it easy to take into account theories and findings about complex cognitive and social processes, which often involve dynamics based on interrelating cycles. Accordingly, it makes it possible to address complex phenomena such as the integration of emotions within cognitive processes of all kinds, of internal simulations of the mental processes of others, and of social phenomena such as shared understandings and collective actions. A variety of sample models – including those for ownership of actions, fear and dreaming, the integration of emotions in joint decision-making based on empathic understanding, and evolving social networks – illustrate the potential of the approach. Dedicated software is available to support building models in a conceptual or graphical manner, transforming them into an executable format and performing simulation experiments. The majority of the material presented has been used and positively evaluated by undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in the cognitive, social and AI domains. Given its detailed coverage, the book is ideally suited as an introduction for graduate and undergraduate students in many different multidisciplinary fields involving cognitive, affective, social, biological, and neuroscience domains.
Shorebirds are the most visible inhabitants of coastal wetlands worldwide. Many undertake spectacularly long flights between their wintering and breeding grounds, embodying the miracle of long-distance migration in a profound way. In this illustrated behavioural ecology the migration, feeding and breeding of these birds are explained in a comprehensive but simple and visually stunning form. The core of the book is based on studies of shorebirds and other waterbirds (such as ducks, geese and gulls) that migrate along the East Atlantic Flyway. The emphasis is on those using the Dutch, German and Danish Wadden Sea; examples from the rest of the world are also included. The authors are experts in the fields of bird migration, shorebird behaviour and intertidal ecology, and have contributed much to our current understanding of these subjects. The 300 magnificent portraits of waterbirds in action were taken by Jan van de Kam, one of The Netherlands' foremost wildlife photographers.
Contributors to this volume outline how societal actors have been closely involved in European integration from the founding of the EU to the Maastricht Treaty. Based on newly accessible sources, the authors discuss the participation of political parties, business groups and civil society organizations in European polity-building and policy-making.
In this book Jan D. Sinnott synthesizes her 20 years of research on lifespan cognitive development to describe the growth of complex (or `postformal') thought in adults. She shows specifically how adults improve mentally over a lifetime and learn to think in more complex and wiser ways. Applications of postformal thought are demonstrated in such diverse areas as - family relations - adult education - personal identity - and spirituality. Chapters examine relations between postformal thought and pertinent variables such as age, health, memory, and vocabulary. Other sections deal with issues in humanistic psychology such as - guided imagery - mind - body medicine - and creative intentionality.
Do your students find psychology difficult to engage with or want a textbook that is easy to read? Would they benefit from a textbook that demonstrates how psychology applies to nursing? Right from the start of their programme it is crucial for nursing students to understand the significance of psychology in nursing. This book helps students recognise why they need to know about psychology, how it can affect and influence their individual nursing practice as well as the role it plays in health and illness. Written in clear, easy to follow language and with each chapter linking to relevant NMC Standards and Essentials Skills Clusters it simplifies the key theory and puts the discipline of psychology into context for nursing students, with clear examples and case studies used throughout. Transforming Nursing Practice is a series tailor made for pre-registration student nurses. Each book in the series is: · Affordable · Mapped to the NMC Standards and Essential Skills Clusters · Focused on applying theory to practice · Full of active learning features ‘The set of books is an excellent resource for students. The series is small, easily portable and valuable. I use the whole set on a regular basis.’ - Fiona Davies, Senior Nurse Lecturer, University of Derby
This book contains the papers, comments, and the discussion at a conference on "Flexible Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy", held at Saltsjobaden, Stockholm, August 26–27, 1975. The papers integrate the flexible exchange rates theory with macro theory and stabilization policy analysis. .
Max-plus algebra provides a mathematical framework for modelling a class of systems which describe the ordering and timing of events. This text provides a concise and self-contained introduction to the topic.
This volume of intellectual biography records the work of Michał Kalecki’s maturity: his work on monetary economics and the theory of profits; his work on the problems of socialism and developing countries; and the extension of his theory of capitalism to define his work in relation to Keynes and previous political economic principles. Kalecki had, by 1939, laid out the essential elements of his theory of the business cycle in capitalism. This book begins at Oxford where, at the Institute of Statistics, he worked on the economic planning and financing of World War Two, as well as extending and detailing the particulars of his theory and examining the conditions for full employment in the post-War international monetary and financial system. Kalecki would then work for the United Nations on full employment, inflation, and developing countries. He departed from the United Nations in 1955, and returned to Poland to extend two new directions of his ideas – on the economics of developing countries and his theory of growth in the socialist economy, alongside further work on business cycles. This book is essential reading for all those who want to understand Kalecki’s lasting contribution to economic theory and policy.
A major feat of research and synthesis, this book presents the first comprehensive history of the Dutch economy in the nineteenth century--an important but poorly understood piece of European economic history. Based on a detailed reconstruction of extensive economic data, the authors account for demise of the Dutch economy's golden age. After showing how institutional factors combined to make the Dutch economy a victim of its own success, the book traces its subsequent emergence as a modern industrial economy. Between 1780 and 1914, the Netherlands went through a double transition. Its economy--which, in the words of Adam Smith, was approaching a "stationary state" in the eighteenth century--entered a process of modern economic growth during the middle decades of the nineteenth. At the same time, the country's sociopolitical structure was undergoing radical transformation as the decentralized polity of the republic gave way to a unitary state. As the authors show, the dramatic transformation of the Dutch political structure was intertwined with equally radical changes in the institutional structure of the economy. The outcome of this dual transition was a rapidly industrializing economy on one side and, on the other, the neocorporatist sociopolitical structure that would characterize the Netherlands in the twentieth century. Analyzing both processes with a focus on institutional change, this book argues that the economic and political development of the Netherlands can be understood only in tandem.
The first truly global history of work, an upbeat assessment from the age of the hunter-gatherer to the present day "Beginning in the hunting-and-gathering past, this long view of work shows how little has changed over millennia. Progressing through the rise of cities, wages and markets for labour, it traces a perennial cycle of injustice and resistance--and the age-old desire for more."--The Economist, "Best Books of 2021" "Absolutely fascinating. . . . Lucassen's own compassion shines through this magisterial book."--Christina Patterson, The Guardian We work because we have to, but also because we like it: from hunting-gathering more than 700,000 years ago to the present era of zoom meetings, humans have always worked to make the world around them serve their needs. Jan Lucassen provides an inclusive history of humanity's busy labor throughout the ages. Spanning China, India, Africa, the Americas, and Europe, Lucassen looks at the ways in which humanity organizes work: in the household, the tribe, the city, and the state. He examines how labor is split between men, women, and children; the watershed moment of the invention of money; the collective action of workers; and the impact of migration, slavery, and the idea of leisure. From peasant farmers in the first agrarian societies to the precarious existence of today's gig workers, this surprising account of both cooperation and subordination at work throws essential light on the opportunities we face today.
In the debate leading up to the EU referendum in the United Kingdom, the British politician Michael Gove declared that "people in this country have had enough of experts". In the 2016 Presidential campaign in the United States, Donald Trump waged a war against the very idea of expertise. Yet if you are worried about your child's behaviour, don't know which laptop to buy, or just want to get fit, the answer is easy: ask an expert. Where do we draw the line? Why do we appear to know more and more collectively, yet less and less individually? Has expertise painted itself into a corner? Can we defend both science and common sense? In this engaging and much-needed book Jan Bransen explores these important questions and more. He argues that the rise of behavioural sciences has caused a sea change in the relationship between science and common sense. He shows how - as recently as the 1960s - common sense and science were allies in the battle against ignorance, but that since then populism and chauvinism have claimed common sense as their own. Bransen argues that common sense is a collection of interrelated skills that draw on both an automatic pilot and an investigative attitude where we ask ourselves the right questions. It is the very attitude of open-minded inquiry and questioning that Bransen believes we are at risk of losing in the face of an army of experts. Drawing on fascinating examples such as language and communication, money, the imaginary world of Endoxa, domestic violence, and quality of life, Don't be Fooled: A Philosophy of Common Sense is a brilliant and wry defence of a skill that is a vital part of being human.
A long-standing unsolved problem in economic theory is how economic equilibria are attained. Price Dynamics in Equilibrium Models: The Search for Equilibrium and the Emergence of Endogenous Fluctuations considers a number of adjustment processes in different economic models and investigates their dynamical behaviour. Two important themes arising in this context are `bounded rationality' and `nonlinear dynamics'. Important sub-themes of the book are the following: how do boundedly rational agents interact with their environment and does this interaction in some sense lead to rational outcomes (which may or may not correspond to equilibria)? The second sub-theme deals with the consequences of the nonlinear dynamical nature of many adjustment processes. The results presented in this volume indicate that endogenous fluctuations are the rule rather than the exception in the search for equilibrium. The book uses the theory of nonlinear dynamics to analyze the dynamics of the different economic models. Due to the complexity of most of the models, an important role is played by computational methods. In particular, at regular instances the models are analyzed by numerical simulations and some computer-assisted proofs are provided. It also covers a wide range of dynamical models from economic theory. Most of these models merge the theory of nonlinear economic dynamics with the theory of bounded rationality. The book is written for anyone with an interest in economic theory in general and bounded rationality and endogenous fluctuations in particular. It is entirely self-contained and accessible to readers with only a limited knowledge of economic theory.
This will help us customize your experience to showcase the most relevant content to your age group
Please select from below
Login
Not registered?
Sign up
Already registered?
Success – Your message will goes here
We'd love to hear from you!
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.