As Iran?'s nuclear program evolves, U.S. decisionmakers will confront a series of critical policy choices involving complex considerations and policy trade-offs. These policy choices could involve dissuading Iran from developing nuclear weapons; deterring Iran from using its nuclear weapons, if it were to acquire them; and reassuring U.S. regional partners. The U.S. Air Force will need to prepare to carry out whatever policies are chosen.
The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine created an opportunity for change and reforms in a system that had resisted them for 25 years. This report examines Ukraine’s security sector—assessing what different institutions need to do and where gaps exist—and offers recommendations for the reform of Ukraine’s security and defense institutions that meet Ukraine’s security needs and align with Euro-Atlantic standards and approaches.
Through a variety of policies and actions--and most recently in a new military doctrine adopted in February 2010--Russia has indicated the types of situations and threats that might cause it to resort to using nuclear weapons. This volume examines Russia's evolving framework for nuclear deterrence and its implications for U.S. military operations in Europe.
This report analyzes defense options available to the United States in responding to current and emerging threats to U.S. security and interests in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. It focuses on ways that the United States might adapt military instruments to meet these emerging challenges, assessing in broad terms the cost of defense investments commensurate with the interests at stake.
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. It examines Russian vulnerabilities and anxieties; analyzes potential policy options to exploit them; and assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood of successful implementation.
In the second edition of The New Middle East: What Everyone Needs to Know, renowned Middle East scholar James L. Gelvin explains how in the aftermath of the collapse of the USSR, the American invasion of Iraq, and the Arab uprisings of 2010-11, a new Middle East has emerged. Syria, Libya, and Yemen have become "crisis states," where warlords vie against governments and each other. The economies of Iran, Turkey, and Lebanon, weakened by corruption, sanctions, and neoliberal economic policies, have imploded. Some states have doubled-down on repression, while others intervene in the internal affairs of their neighbors with impunity. The revised and expanded edition explores these hallmarks of the New Middle East, along with the end of American hegemony in the region, the expansion of "conflict zones," the continued centrality of the Saudi-Iranian competition, and the ramifications of the breakdown of the Israel-Palestine peace process. It also highlights the crisis of human security brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, bad governance, stagnant economies, poor healthcare and educational delivery systems, climate change, food and water insecurity, population growth and imbalance, and the unprecedented displacement of populations. In a concise question-and-answer format, Gelvin outlines the social, political, and economic contours of the New Middle East, illuminating the current crisis in the region and exploring how it is likely to evolve in the decades to come.
In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to rigorously consider the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions following the outbreak of a war or crisis. This framework can provide a better understanding of the relationships between intervention timing, intervention size, and intervention outcomes to inform future debates about whether, when, and with what size force to undertake a military intervention.
Individuals may have to rely on themselves to protect their own health and safety--perhaps even their own lives--in the event of a terrorist attack. Even those who know how to take care of themselves in the event of a fire, tornado, or earthquake might not know what to do in case of a chemical, radiological, nuclear, or biological attack. This quick guide attempts to fill in some of these gaps by offering specific actions to take during each of these situations, as well as preparations that can be taken. These actions are appropriate regardless of the likelihood of an attack, its scale, or the current government alert level; are designed to be sensitive to potential variations; and have been defined in terms of simple rules that should be easy to follow. A reference card included at the back of the guide encapsulates the key points and can be removed for display in a prominent place.
The cross-border sharing of intelligence is fundamental to the establishment and preservation of security and stability. The American invasion of Iraq in 2003 was based in part on flawed intelligence, and current efforts to defeat al Qaeda would not be possible without an exchange of information among Britain, Pakistan, Indonesia, and the United States. While critical to national security and political campaigns, intelligence sharing can also be a minefield of manipulation and maneuvering, especially when secrecy makes independent verification of sources impossible. In The International Politics of Intelligence Sharing, James Igoe Walsh advances novel strategies for securing more reliable intelligence. His approach puts states that seek information in control of other states' intelligence efforts. According to this hierarchical framework, states regularly draw agreements in which one power directly monitors and acts on another power's information-gathering activities-a more streamlined approach that prevents the dissemination of false "secrets." In developing this strategy, Walsh draws on recent theories of international cooperation and evaluates both historical and contemporary case studies of intelligence sharing. Readers with an interest in intelligence matters cannot ignore this urgent, timely, and evidence-based book.
Front flap copy: Terrorists and insurgents, not foreign governments, now pose the greatest threat to America--and how to fight and defeat such "non-state" enemies is the single most urgent and vexing question confronting our military today. This timely book has some answers. Drawing on decades of experience with counterinsurgency--as a scholar, a strategist, and a military officer--James S. Corum brings unique insight to the problems we face. His book offers a deeply informed, closely reasoned and--most valuably--eminently sensible account of how circumstances and our actions (or inaction) have contributed to our present dilemma. With the lessons of recent history in clear view, Corum "lays out a workable strategy for meeting the often-overlapping threat raised by terrorist groups and insurgents. Critical to understanding the nature of modern-day warfare, Fighting the War on Terror" has broad implications for the future course of military, intelligence, and foreign policymaking. No one with an interest in the nation's security can afford to overlook it. Back flap copy: James S. Corum, PhD, is an associate professor at the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in the Department of Joint and Multinational Operations at Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. He was recently a visiting fellow at Oxford University's All Souls College. While serving as a professor at the Air University, Corum developed and taught the course Terrorism and Small Wars. He is a member of the editorial boards of the Journal of Strategic Studies and Airpower Journal and the author of four books. A Lieutenant Colonel, Corum recently retired from the U.S. Army Reserve after six years of active duty and twenty-two years of reserve service, including duty in Iraq in 2004.
This technical report explains an analytic way to design and assess packages of financial incentives that the government can use to cost effectively promote early experience with coal-to-liquids (CTL) production of liquid fuels in the face of significant uncertainty about the future. The report applies two complementary analytic methods. The first uses observations from successful voluntary agreements in the commercial world to identify principles that the government can use to design a relationship with a private investor that is likely to ensure that early CTL production experience occurs cost effectively. Such a relationship yields investor and government behavior that, in turn, generates a set of cash flows to and from investor and government over time. The second analytic method takes these cash flows as given and assesses their effects on the investor and the government. It measures effects on an investor in terms of changes in the investor's real (adjusted for inflation) after-tax internal rate of return (IRR). It measures effects on the government in terms of changes in the real net present value (NPV) of cash flows to and from the government when assessed at the discount rate set by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for investments of this kind. The cash-flow analysis focuses on a hypothetical CTL combined-cycle production plant that uses a Fischer-Tropsch (FT) technology to convert coal into about 30,000 barrels per day (bpd) of diesel and naphtha; significant amounts of electricity, some of which can be sold off site; and carbon dioxide, which can be sequestered or sold for use in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) off site.
Employing an engaging question-and-answer format, The Arab Uprisings explores the revolutionary protests that have rocked the Arab world since late 2010. In this updated and revised second edition, James L. Gelvin explores the varied paths taken by the uprisings and assesses their historical and global significance. Gelvin begins with an overview-What were the conditions in the Arab world that led to the uprisings? Where did the demands for human and democratic rights and social and economic justice come from?-before turning to specific countries in the region. He examines how the long history of state-building in Tunisia and Egypt ultimately determined the paths taken by uprisings there. He explains why the weakness of state institutions in Libya and Yemen led to violence and chaos. He explores the commonalities of the "coup-proofed" states Bahrain and Syria and the tragic course of their uprisings. In the final chapter, he discusses the implications of the uprisings. What do they mean for the United States, al-Qaeda, and the balance of power in the region? What do they say about the viability of the Arab state system? What effects have they had on the Israel-Palestine conflict? What conclusions might we draw from the uprisings so far? When will we know their historical meaning? What Everyone Needs to Know® is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press.
The definitive water quality and treatment resource--fully revised and updated Comprehensive, current, and written by leading experts, Water Quality & Treatment: A Handbook on Drinking Water, Sixth Edition covers state-of-the-art technologies and methods for water treatment and quality control. Significant revisions and new material in this edition reflect the latest advances and critical topics in water supply and treatment. Presented by the American Water Works Association, this is the leading source of authoritative information on drinking water quality and treatment. NEW CHAPTERS ON: Chemical principles, source water composition, and watershed protection Natural treatment systems Water reuse for drinking water augmentation Ultraviolet light processes Formation and control of disinfection by-products DETAILED COVERAGE OF: Drinking water standards, regulations, goals, and health effects Hydraulic characteristics of water treatment reactors Gas-liquid processes and chemical oxidation Coagulation, flocculation, sedimentation, and flotation Granular media and membrane filtration Ion exchange and adsorption of inorganic contaminants Precipitation, coprecipitation, and precipitative softening Adsorption of organic compounds by activated carbon Chemical disinfection Internal corrosion and deposition control Microbiological quality control in distribution systems Water treatment plant residuals management
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