Ein Wiley-Klassiker über Bayes-Statistik, jetzt in durchgesehener und erweiterter Neuauflage! - Werk spiegelt die stürmische Entwicklung dieses Gebietes innerhalb der letzten Jahre wider - vollständige Darstellung der theoretischen Grundlagen - jetzt ergänzt durch unzählige Anwendungsbeispiele - die wichtigsten modernen Methoden (u. a. hierarchische Modellierung, linear-dynamische Modellierung, Metaanalyse, MCMC-Simulationen) - einzigartige Diskussion der Finetti-Transformierten und anderer Themen, über die man ansonsten nur spärliche Informationen findet - Lösungen zu den Übungsaufgaben sind enthalten
This book proposes a new capital asset pricing model dubbed the ZCAPM that outperforms other popular models in empirical tests using US stock returns. The ZCAPM is derived from Fischer Black’s well-known zero-beta CAPM, itself a more general form of the famous capital asset pricing model (CAPM) by 1990 Nobel Laureate William Sharpe and others. It is widely accepted that the CAPM has failed in its theoretical relation between market beta risk and average stock returns, as numerous studies have shown that it does not work in the real world with empirical stock return data. The upshot of the CAPM’s failure is that many new factors have been proposed by researchers. However, the number of factors proposed by authors has steadily increased into the hundreds over the past three decades. This new ZCAPM is a path-breaking asset pricing model that is shown to outperform popular models currently in practice in finance across different test assets and time periods. Since asset pricing is central to the field of finance, it can be broadly employed across many areas, including investment analysis, cost of equity analyses, valuation, corporate decision making, pension portfolio management, etc. The ZCAPM represents a revolution in finance that proves the CAPM as conceived by Sharpe and others is alive and well in a new form, and will certainly be of interest to academics, researchers, students, and professionals of finance, investing, and economics.
A comprehensive and detailed examination of the law of evidence in the broadest of civil and criminal contexts. The emphasis is upon rigorous examination of the issues affecting all who work with the law of evidence whether in court, chamber practice or legal education. The fifth edition takes account of a range of relevant new legislation, including the following statutes: · Vulnerable Witnesses (Criminal Evidence) (Scotland) Act 2019 · Domestic Abuse (Scotland) Act 2018 · Abusive Behaviour and Sexual Harm (Scotland) Act 2016 · Inquiries into Fatal Accidents and Sudden Deaths etc (Scotland) Act 2016 · Criminal Justice (Scotland) Act 2016 It includes relevant case law, including significant developments in respect of opinion evidence, real evidence and corroboration.
Figure skating is the most popular televised sport at the Olympic Winter Games and is the oldest of the winter sports, having first been contested at the Games of the fourth Olympiad in London in 1908. No other sport creates such a perfect balance between athleticism and artistry, and the athletes—many of them household names like Oksana Baiul, Brian Boitano, Nancy Kerrigan, Evan Lysacek, Katarina Witt, and Kristi Yamaguchi—spend years in training to make it look effortless. The Historical Dictionary of Figure Skating relates the history of the sport through a chronology, an introductory essay, an extensive bibliography, appendixes, and over 800 cross-referenced dictionary entries on hundreds of skaters, past and present, but also on skating countries, governing bodies, skating disciplines, technical elements, skating styles, and many other subjects. This book is an excellent access point for students, researchers, and anyone wanting to know more about the history of figure skating.
Praise for the First Edition ". . . [this book] should be on the shelf of everyone interested in . . . longitudinal data analysis." —Journal of the American Statistical Association Features newly developed topics and applications of the analysis of longitudinal data Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition presents modern methods for analyzing data from longitudinal studies and now features the latest state-of-the-art techniques. The book emphasizes practical, rather than theoretical, aspects of methods for the analysis of diverse types of longitudinal data that can be applied across various fields of study, from the health and medical sciences to the social and behavioral sciences. The authors incorporate their extensive academic and research experience along with various updates that have been made in response to reader feedback. The Second Edition features six newly added chapters that explore topics currently evolving in the field, including: Fixed effects and mixed effects models Marginal models and generalized estimating equations Approximate methods for generalized linear mixed effects models Multiple imputation and inverse probability weighted methods Smoothing methods for longitudinal data Sample size and power Each chapter presents methods in the setting of applications to data sets drawn from the health sciences. New problem sets have been added to many chapters, and a related website features sample programs and computer output using SAS, Stata, and R, as well as data sets and supplemental slides to facilitate a complete understanding of the material. With its strong emphasis on multidisciplinary applications and the interpretation of results, Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition is an excellent book for courses on statistics in the health and medical sciences at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book also serves as a valuable reference for researchers and professionals in the medical, public health, and pharmaceutical fields as well as those in social and behavioral sciences who would like to learn more about analyzing longitudinal data.
In the darkest days of the Second World War, with Europe falling under German occupation and Britain facing invasion, a 36-year-old refugee from the Nazis, Louis de Wohl, made a curious offer to British Intelligence. Based on the widely-held belief that Hitler's every action was guided by his horoscope, de Wohl claimed he could reveal precisely what advice the Fuhrer's astrologers were giving him. Rather than being dismissed out of hand as a crank, Churchill could see de Wohl's worth for himself. He was subsequently made an army captain and quartered in the Grosvenor House Hotel, from where he passed detailed astrological readings to the War Office and Naval Intelligence, before being transferred to work for the SOE in the United States. Was it possible that senior military and naval intelligence officers could take the ancient and arcane practice of astrology seriously? And was de Wohl genuine or merely a charlatan? In The Astrologer, author James Parris examines the evidence, including recently released files, and reaches remarkable conclusions about this bizarre aspect of the war.
Addresses the biological effects of the large number of compounds that have been recognized as endocrine disrupters. This book presents the relevant fundamentals of the endocrine systems of animals and humans, the toxicology, developmental toxicology, ecology, and risk assessment methods, and lays out the state of understanding for the field.
The authors of this book are pioneers of the passive, integrative sampling approach and developers of globally applied semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs). The book will boost understanding of how passive samplers such as SPMD function by examining basic exchange processes that mediate the concentration of SVOCs in a sampling matrix. The book delineates fundamental theory and modeling techniques, while providing a practical guide for its proper application.
Widely regarded as the standard book on the British Media, this authoritative introduction to the history, sociology, theory and politics of media and communications studies has been substantially revised and updated to bring it up to date with developments in the media industry. Its three new chapters describe the battle for the soul of the internet, the impact of the internet on society and the rise of new media in Britain. In addition it examines the recuperation of the BBC, how international and European regulation is changing the British media and why Britain has the least trusted press in Europe.
During the past 60 years, the number of chemical disasters worldwide from military, occupational, and environmental sources has risen at an alarming rate. The profound controversy surrounding many chemicals makes objective analysis nearly impossible. Yet now more than ever -- with the daily exposure to a wide range of chemicals and the increased threat of chemical terrorism -- it is critical that we understand the role of chemicals in causing psychiatric illness. Unlike related books, this remarkable reference is intended specifically for psychiatric applications and is thus the definitive sourcebook for the many professionals called on to respond to these events. This work stands alone as the first on this topic to be written by a psychiatrist and the first to bring together the military, occupational, and environmental exposures causing psychiatric illness, including multiple chemical sensitivities, mass hysteria, radiation exposures, community stress reactions, and Gulf War and other syndromes. Unique highlights include A summary of the reported psychiatric symptoms attributed to each chemical class (chemical weapons, pesticides, fumigants, metals, solvents, gases, PCBs, Agent Orange, and other miscellaneous chemicals) in tables for easy reference. We use personal care products, take prescription drugs, pump gasoline, drink alcohol, and spray insecticides as part of our everyday lives. Yet rarely do we realize that significant exposures to the chemicals described in this book -- many of which we are exposed to in daily activities -- can damage the central nervous system, causing psychiatric illness. A comprehensive bibliography, in every chapter, of all the important material in English-language medical journals and books that has appeared on this subject since the late 19th century. These bibliographies cover everything from the first published reports of the dangers of carbon disulfide in the French rubber industry -- dangers that American medicine ignored for years -- through more recent large-scale chemical exposures that have serious long-term consequences. (e.g., Love Canal). The latest information about terrorist and military uses of chemical weapons -- of critical relevance in psychiatry today -- from World War I combatants exposed to chlorine, phosgene, mustard gas, arsenic, and cyanide to the first organophosphate, or nerve, gases (such as tabun and sarin) developed by the Germans before and during World War II (and used by Iraq in the Gulf War and by a religious cult in the terrorist subway attacks in Tokyo and Matsumoto, Japan). Quite simply, this book is a "must have" for psychiatric and medical professionals everywhere, with extended appeal among laypersons such as environmental/consumer advocates, attorneys, insurance professionals, industrial hygienists, disaster planners, and medical librarians.
The availability of packaged clustering programs means that anyone with data can easily do cluster analysis on it. But many users of this technology don't fully appreciate its many hidden dangers. In today's world of "grab and go algorithms," part of my motivation for writing this book is to provide users with a set of cautionary tales about cluster analysis, for it is very much an art as well as a science, and it is easy to stumble if you don't understand its pitfalls. Indeed, it is easy to trip over them even if you do! The parenthetical word usually in the title is very important, because all clustering algorithms can and do fail from time to time. Modern cluster analysis has become so technically intricate that it is often hard for the beginner or the non-specialist to appreciate and understand its many hidden dangers. Here's how Yogi Berra put it, and he was right: In theory there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is ~Yogi Berra This book is a step backwards, to four classical methods for clustering in small, static data sets that have all withstood the tests of time. The youngest of the four methods is now almost 50 years old: Gaussian Mixture Decomposition (GMD, 1898) SAHN Clustering (principally single linkage (SL, 1909)) Hard c-means (HCM, 1956, also widely known as (aka) "k-means") Fuzzy c-means (FCM, 1973, reduces to HCM in a certain limit) The dates are the first known writing (to me, anyway) about these four models. I am (with apologies to Marvel Comics) very comfortable in calling HCM, FCM, GMD and SL the Fantastic Four. Cluster analysis is a vast topic. The overall picture in clustering is quite overwhelming, so any attempt to swim at the deep end of the pool in even a very specialized subfield requires a lot of training. But we all start out at the shallow end (or at least that's where we should start!), and this book is aimed squarely at teaching toddlers not to be afraid of the water. There is no section of this book that, if explored in real depth, cannot be expanded into its own volume. So, if your needs are for an in-depth treatment of all the latest developments in any topic in this volume, the best I can do - what I will try to do anyway - is lead you to the pool, and show you where to jump in.
Short-listed for the CBCA Book of the Year- Older Readers "When can I hold you then?" He whispered. "I want to. I... " He was going to say I love you - but what did that mean? For Xavier McLachlan, rugby is life. Winning a 1st XV jersey means everything... Until he meets Nuala Magee. Has there ever been a girl like her? She's feisty, she's troubled, she's dangerous. What will his mates think? Does he even care? Everything looks different now. Xavier McLachlan is in love.
Presenting the first database of its kind, this unique reference illustrates the relationships between the chemistry and developmental toxicity of a number of important pharmaceuticals and industrial toxicants. Human Developmental Toxicants contains up-to-date and concise information on the chemical structures, properties, and biological activities
The Index of American Periodical Verse is an important work for contemporary poetry research and is an objective measure of poetry that includes poets from the United States, Canada, and the Caribbean as well as other lands, cultures, and times. It reveals trends in the output of particular poets and the cultural influences they represent. The publications indexed cover a broad cross-section of poetry, literary, scholarly, popular, general, and "little" magazines, journals, and reviews.
An essential history of the modern research university When universities began in the Middle Ages, Pope Gregory IX described them as "wisdom's special workshop." He could not have foreseen how far these institutions would travel and develop. Tracing the eight-hundred-year evolution of the elite research university from its roots in medieval Europe to its remarkable incarnation today, Wisdom's Workshop places this durable institution in sweeping historical perspective. In particular, James Axtell focuses on the ways that the best American universities took on Continental influences, developing into the finest expressions of the modern university and enviable models for kindred institutions worldwide. Despite hand-wringing reports to the contrary, the venerable university continues to renew itself, becoming ever more indispensable to society in the United States and beyond. Born in Europe, the university did not mature in America until the late nineteenth century. Once its heirs proliferated from coast to coast, their national role expanded greatly during World War II and the Cold War. Axtell links the legacies of European universities and Tudor-Stuart Oxbridge to nine colonial and hundreds of pre–Civil War colleges, and delves into how U.S. universities were shaped by Americans who studied in German universities and adapted their discoveries to domestic conditions and goals. The graduate school, the PhD, and the research imperative became and remain the hallmarks of the American university system and higher education institutions around the globe. A rich exploration of the historical lineage of today's research universities, Wisdom's Workshop explains the reasons for their ascendancy in America and their continued international preeminence.
This richly illustrated third edition provides a thorough training in practical mathematical biology and shows how exciting mathematical challenges can arise from a genuinely interdisciplinary involvement with the biosciences. It has been extensively updated and extended to cover much of the growth of mathematical biology. From the reviews: ""This book, a classical text in mathematical biology, cleverly combines mathematical tools with subject area sciences."--SHORT BOOK REVIEWS
Rivals the major systematic theologies of this century."--Baptist History and Heritage Journal, July 1996"One of the characteristics of Garrett's system that needs especially to be noted is its balanced, judicious, and nearly invariably objective presentation of materials. While holding true to the teachings of his own Baptist faith, Garrett so carefully and judiciously presents alternatives . . . that teachers and students from other confessional and denominational positions will find his work instructive."--Consensus, 1997"If one is searching for an extensive exposition of the biblical foundations and historical developments of the various loci of systematic theology, there is no more complete presentation in a relatively short work than this . . . Pastors will especially find this feature to be a real help in teaching theology . . . [It is] an indispensable contribution to the task of systematic theology."--Journal of the Evangelical Theological Society, September 1999"Many students and pastors will find all they need here, and will in addition be helped to relate their knowledge to recent developments in the theological world."--The Churchman: A Journal of Anglican Theology, 1991"A gold mine of helpful material."--The Christian Century, May 29-June 5, 1991"No book that I know is more loaded with biblical and theological facts than this one. The prodigious research that must have gone into the preparation of this volume is truly mind-boggling."--Faith and Mission, Fall 1991"Garrett has provided a massive and scholarly systematic theology from a thoroughly conservative and comprehensive viewpoint. The work is well documented in both biblical and historical scholarship and will prove to be a classic."--William Hendrickson, Southern Baptist Theological Seminary"One of the most comprehensive, concise books of its type available; it should receive wide use in the classroom and in the study."--Robert H. Culpepper, Southern Baptist Theological Seminary
A dance was devised in eighteenth-century Skye. An exhilarating dance. A dance, a visitor reports, 'the emigration from Skye has occasioned'. The visitor asks for the dance's name. 'They call it America,' he's told. In his introduction to this new edition of his classic and pioneering account of what happened to the thousands of people who left Skye and the wider north of Scotland to make new lives across the sea, historian James Hunter reflects on what led him to embark on travels and researches that took him across a continent. To Georgia, North Carolina and Montana; to Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario and the Mohawk Valley; to prairie farms and great cities; to the Rocky Mountains, British Columbia and Washington State. This is the story of the Highland impact on the New World. The story of how soldiers, explorers, guerrilla fighters, fur traders, lumberjacks, railway builders and settlers from Scotland's glens and islands contributed so much to the USA and Canada. It is the story of how a hard-pressed people found in North America a land of opportunity.
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