Jakub Bijak's Books

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies

By: Jakub Bijak

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Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies

By: Jakub Bijak

This open access book presents a ground-breaking approach to developing micro-foundations for demography and migration studies. It offers a unique and novel methodology for creating empirically grounded agent-based models of international migration – one of the most uncertain population processes and a top-priority policy area. The book discusses in detail the process of building a simulation model of migration, based on a population of intelligent, cognitive agents, their networks and institutions, all interacting with one another. The proposed model-based approach integrates behavioural and social theory with formal modelling, by embedding the interdisciplinary modelling process within a wider inductive framework based on the Bayesian statistical reasoning. Principles of uncertainty quantification are used to devise innovative computer-based simulations, and to learn about modelling the simulated individuals and the way they make decisions. The identified knowledge gaps are subsequently filled with information from dedicated laboratory experiments on cognitive aspects of human decision-making under uncertainty. In this way, the models are built iteratively, from the bottom up, filling an important epistemological gap in migration studies, and social sciences more broadly.

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Page Count

277

Publisher

Springer Nature

Published Date

ISBN 10

303083039X

ISBN 13

9783030830397

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies

By: Jakub Bijak

Write a review Read reviews Take a Quiz Solve Book Puzzle

Towards Bayesian Model-Based Demography

Agency, Complexity and Uncertainty in Migration Studies

By: Jakub Bijak

Average ratings

N/A

Write a review

Solve jigsaw puzzle

Age

Page Count

277

Publisher

Springer Nature

Published Date

ISBN 10

303083039X

ISBN 13

9783030830397

Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

By: Jakub Bijak

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Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

By: Jakub Bijak

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migration are lacking. There is a clear need for reliable methods of predicting migration since population forecasts are indispensable for rational decision making in many areas, including labour markets, social security or spatial planning and organisation. In addressing these issues, this book adopts a Bayesian statistical perspective, which allows for a formal incorporation of expert judgement, while describing uncertainty in a coherent and explicit manner. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics is assumed. The outcomes are discussed from the point of view of forecast users (decision makers), with the aim to show the relevance and usefulness of the presented methods in practical applications.

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