Africa is a continent with boundless potential -- it has the natural resources, the population and the land mass to become a major player on the global stage. Why then, is the gap between Africa and the rest of the world increasing? While the continent has seen improvements in terms of key indicators of human wellbeing like infant mortality and life expectancy, Africa still suffers from massive poverty, weak economic growth, deindustrialisation, an underdeveloped agricultural sector and poor regional integration, among others. What needs to be done to unleash Africas potential and ignite a growth revolution? In this book Jakkie Cilliers examines where the continent is at and where it will be in 2040 if it continues on the current path. He sets that against the 11 scenarios he develops that could help to turn Africas fortunes around and radically improve its growth trajectory. His isnt a blue skies approach -- Cilliers shows exactly which policy, political, technological and economic interventions are needed to put Africa first. Yes, it is possible for the 55 countries on the continent to catch up with the rest world, although it will require a large measure of leapfrogging. This is a book that is bound to become an authoritative guide for policy makers and researchers.
This open access textbook offers a critical introduction to human and economic development prospects in Africa revolving around three questions: where is Africa today, what explains the current state, and, given historical trends and what we know about the world, where do we think the continent will be in 2040? And, a final question: what can we do to create a better tomorrow? It models ambitious progress in health, demographics, agriculture, education, industrialization, technological leapfrogging, increased trade, greater stability, better governance and external support. The book reviews the future of work/jobs, poverty and the impact of climate change. A combined Closing the Gap scenario presents a forecast of what could be possible by 2040. Each chapter suggests which policies might accelerate prospects for each sector. Written in an accessible style, and supported by a range of pedagogical features, this textbook introduces undergraduate and graduate students to the contemporary human and economic development prospects in Africa.
WHAT DOES OUR FUTURE HOLD? In these uncertain times, this is the question on many South Africans' lips. Will we become more prosperous and less divided as a nation or remain hugely unequal and generally poor? Will the ANC split or eventually be forced into an alliance with the EFF after 2019? Could the DA rule the country after the 2024 elections? In Fate of the Nation Jakkie Cilliers develops three scenarios for our immediate future and beyond: Bafana Bafana, Nation Divided and Mandela Magic. Cilliers says the ANC is currently paralysed by the power struggle between what he calls the Traditionalists and the Reformers. It is this power struggle that has led to the inept leadership, policy confusion and poor service delivery that has plagued the country in recent years. Key to which scenario could become our reality is who will be elected to the ANC's top leadership at the party's national conference in December 2017. Whichever group wins there will determine what our future looks like. This is a book for all concerned South Africans.
When originally published in 1985 this volume was the first scholarly and objective contribution available on Rhodesian counter-insurgency. It documents and explains why Rhodesia lost the war. The origins of the conflict are reviewed; each chapter examines a separate institution or counter-insurgency strategy directly related to the development of the conflict, concluding with a summary view of the Rhodesian security situation both past and present.
Despite sterling growth in some countries, a number of African countries are caught in a vicious cycle of violence, chronic poverty, inequality and exclusion. These 'more fragile' states are on a slow trajectory to long-term peace and development. Using the International Futures system data analysis and forecasting tool, the monograph provides a long-term forecast of 26 fragile African countries. The forecasts suggest that in the long-term ten countries on the continent will continue to remain fragile into the mid-21st century. Others, however, have a good chance of embarking on a pathway from fragility to middle-income conditions by 2030 or possibly 2050. The monograph concludes with a list of recommendations.
What does our future hold? Will the ANC split within the next five years? Could the DA rule the country in 2024? Will the EFF form an alliance with the ANC? What should we do to make our economy grow at levels that will impact on poverty and inequality? Will we become a more tolerant or a more violent society? In Fate of the Nation scenario expert Jakkie Cilliers answers all these and many other questions. He has developed three detailed scenarios for our immediate future and beyond - Bafana Bafana, Nation Divided and Mandela Magic. According to Cilliers the ANC is in many ways paralysed by the power struggle between what he calls the Traditionalists (supporters of Jacob Zuma) and the Reformers (led by Cyril Ramaphosa and others). This power struggle leads to policy confusion, poor leadership and general ineptitude in the civil service. Key to which scenario will become our reality is who will be elected to the ANC's top leadership at their national conference in December 2017. Whichever group wins will determine what our future holds. We could also see a compromise grouping being selected, Cilliers says, in which case the Bafana Bafana scenario - where we simply muddle along as a country - is the strongest possibility. A book for all concerned South Africans.
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