This book explains the misuses and abuses of Null Hypothesis Significance Tests, which are reconsidered in light of Jeffreys’ Bayesian concept of the role of statistical inference, in experimental investigations. Minimizing the technical aspects, the studies focuses mainly on methodological contributions. The first part of the book gives an overview of the major approaches to statistical testing and an enlightening discussion of the philosophies of Fisher, Neyman-Pearson and Jeffrey. The conceptual and methodological implications of current practices of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals are also examined and challenged. This sheds new light on the "significance testing controversy" and provides an appropriate Bayesian framework for a comprehensive approach to the analysis and interpretation of experimental data. The second part of the book provides concrete Bayesian routine procedures that bypass common misuses of significance testing and are readily applicable in a wide range of real applications. This approach addresses the need for objective reporting of experimental data, that is acceptable to the scientific community. This is emphasized by the name fiducial (from the Latin fiducia = confidence). The fiducial Bayesian procedures provide the reader with a real opportunity to think sensibly about problems of statistical inference. This book prepares students and researchers to critically read statistical analyses reported in the literature and equips them with an appropriate alternative to the use of significance testing.
The purpose of this book is not only to revisit the “significance test controversy,”but also to provide a conceptually sounder alternative. As such, it presents a Bayesian framework for a new approach to analyzing and interpreting experimental data. It also prepares students and researchers for reporting on experimental results. Normative aspects: The main views of statistical tests are revisited and the philosophies of Fisher, Neyman-Pearson and Jeffrey are discussed in detail. Descriptive aspects: The misuses of Null Hypothesis Significance Tests are reconsidered in light of Jeffreys’ Bayesian conceptions concerning the role of statistical inference in experimental investigations. Prescriptive aspects: The current effect size and confidence interval reporting practices are presented and seriously questioned. Methodological aspects are carefully discussed and fiducial Bayesian methods are proposed as a more suitable alternative for reporting on experimental results. In closing, basic routine procedures regarding the means and their generalization to the most common ANOVA applications are presented and illustrated. All the calculations discussed can be easily carried out using the freeware LePAC package.
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