Iva Petrova's Books

Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe

By: Cristina Batog,Ernesto Crivelli,Ms.Anna Ilyina,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Jaewoo Lee,Anvar Musayev,Iva Petrova,Mr.Alasdair Scott,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Andreas Tudyka,Xin Cindy Xu,Ruifeng Zhang

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Demographic Headwinds in Central and Eastern Europe

By: Cristina Batog,Ernesto Crivelli,Ms.Anna Ilyina,Zoltan Jakab,Mr.Jaewoo Lee,Anvar Musayev,Iva Petrova,Mr.Alasdair Scott,Ms.Anna Shabunina,Andreas Tudyka,Xin Cindy Xu,Ruifeng Zhang

The populations of Central and Eastern European (CESEE) countries—with the exception of Turkey—are expected to decrease significantly over the next 30 years, driven by low or negative net birth rates and outward migration. These changes will have significant implications for growth, living standards and fiscal sustainability.

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Page Count

119

Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498325718

ISBN 13

9781498325714

Assessing Fiscal Stress

By: Iva Petrova,Nazim Belhocine,MissGabriela Dobrescu,Mr.Emanuele Baldacci

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Assessing Fiscal Stress

By: Iva Petrova,Nazim Belhocine,MissGabriela Dobrescu,Mr.Emanuele Baldacci

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of fiscal sustainability problems for advanced and emerging economies. Unlike previous studies, the index assesses the determinants of fiscal stress periods, covering public debt default as well as near-default events. The fiscal stress index depends on a parsimonious set of fiscal indicators, aggregated using the approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998). The index is used to assess the build up of fiscal stress over time since the mid-1990s in advanced and emering economies. Fiscal stress has increased recently to record-high levels in advanced countries, reflecting raising solvency risks and financing needs. In emerging economies, risks are lower than in mature economies owing to sounder fiscal fundamentals, but fiscal stress remains higher than before the crisis.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455254312

ISBN 13

9781455254316

Macrofinancial Linkages of the Strategic Asset Allocation of Commodity-Based Sovereign Wealth Funds

By: Aaron Howard Clifford Brown,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Iva Petrova

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Macrofinancial Linkages of the Strategic Asset Allocation of Commodity-Based Sovereign Wealth Funds

By: Aaron Howard Clifford Brown,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Iva Petrova

This paper analyses the links between the investment strategies of a commodity-based SWF and the macroeconomic framework of the owner country. We examine some basic macrofinancial linkages of an SWF's strategic asset allocation (SAA) strategies with regard to the government budget, monetary policy, and exchange rate movements. Based on a simple Markowitz-model framework, which integrates the specific objectives and constraints facing an SWF and the country's specific characteristics and macroeconomic vulnerabilities (especially in relation to commodity prices and prospective defined liabilities), we derive an SAA. The asset-liability methodology that is applied in the selection of an SWF SAA also allows assessing whether (i) the SAA adequately takes into account the country-specific risks and vulnerabilities, and (ii) its objectives and macrofinancial constraints are consistent. Some analytical and practical issues in determining an SAA model are also discussed, along with key effects of a financial crisis.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451961901

ISBN 13

9781451961904

Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management

Conceptual Issues

By: Mr.Udaibir S Das,MissYinqiu Lu,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou,Iva Petrova

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Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management

Conceptual Issues

By: Mr.Udaibir S Das,MissYinqiu Lu,Mr.Michael G. Papaioannou,Iva Petrova

Country practices towards managing financial risks on a sovereign balance sheet continue to evolve. Each crisis period, and its legacy on sovereign balance sheets, reaffirms the need for strengthening financial risk management. This paper discusses some salient features embedded in in the current generation of sovereign asset and liability management (SALM) approaches, including objectives, definitions of relevant assets and liabilities, and methodologies used in obtaining optimal SALM outcomes. These elements are used in developing an analytical SALM framework which could become an operational instrument in formulating asset management and debtor liability management strategies at the sovereign level. From a portfolio perspective, the SALM approach could help detect direct and derived sovereign risk exposures. It allows analyzing the financial characteristics of the balance sheet, identifying sources of costs and risks, and quantifying the correlations among these sources of risk. The paper also outlines institutional requirements in implementing an SALM framework and seeks to lay the ground for further policy and analytical work on this topic.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475511833

ISBN 13

9781475511833

Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Fundamentals vs Financial Stress

By: Iva Petrova,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Mr.Dimitri Bellas

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Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads

Fundamentals vs Financial Stress

By: Iva Petrova,Mr.Michael G Papaioannou,Mr.Dimitri Bellas

This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455210889

ISBN 13

9781455210886

Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress

A Proposed Set of Indicators

By: Mr.Emanuele Baldacci,Mr.James McHugh,Iva Petrova

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Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress

A Proposed Set of Indicators

By: Mr.Emanuele Baldacci,Mr.James McHugh,Iva Petrova

This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455253332

ISBN 13

9781455253333

Investment Objectives of Sovereign Wealth Funds

A Shifting Paradigm

By: Jukka Pihlman,Mr.Peter Kunzel,Yinqiu Lu,Iva Petrova

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Investment Objectives of Sovereign Wealth Funds

A Shifting Paradigm

By: Jukka Pihlman,Mr.Peter Kunzel,Yinqiu Lu,Iva Petrova

While SWF investment objectives to some extent reflect inherent characteristics, notable differences in strategic asset allocation (SAA) exist even amongst SWFs of similar types. Even so, this paper shows that the global crisis may have changed SWF’s asset allocations in ways that may not be ideal or justified in all cases and that a review of investment objectives may be warranted. It also argues for regular macro-risk assessments for the sovereign, the continued importance of SWFs as a stabilizer in international capital markets, as well as the active role they could play in international regulatory reform.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455211966

ISBN 13

9781455211968

Beginner's Czech with 2 Audio CDs

By: Iva Cerna,Jolana Machalek

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Beginner's Czech with 2 Audio CDs

By: Iva Cerna,Jolana Machalek

The Czech Republic with its capital of Prague has become a major tourist destination. Those looking for an introduction to the language, its culture and history, are ideally catered for in this beginner's course book. The 10 lessons begin with dialogues designed for travellers and each lesson includes vocabulary and expressions, concise explanations of grammar and exercises that help to reinforce the material covered. Also included are discussions on the arts, business and everyday life of the Czech people. The two 80-minute audio CDs feature Czech native speakers.

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Page Count

180

Publisher

Hippocrene Books

Published Date

ISBN 10

0781811562

ISBN 13

9780781811569

Serbian Paramilitaries and the Breakup of Yugoslavia

State Connections and Patterns of Violence

By: Iva Vukušić

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Serbian Paramilitaries and the Breakup of Yugoslavia

State Connections and Patterns of Violence

By: Iva Vukušić

This is the first book to offer a comprehensive analysis of the emergence, nature, and function of Serbian paramilitary units during the violent breakup of Yugoslavia. The book investigates the nature and functions of paramilitary units throughout the 1990s, and their ties to the state and President Slobodan Milošević. The work relies on the archives of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, which conducted dozens of trials relating to paramilitary violence, and records from judicial proceedings in the region. It discusses how and why certain important paramilitary units emerged, how they functioned and transformed through the decade, what their relationships and entanglements were with the state, the Milošević regime, and organized crime. The study thus investigates the interrelated ideological, political, and social factors and processes, fueling paramilitary engagement, and assesses the impact of this engagement on victims of paramilitary violence and on the state and society for which the units purportedly fought. It argues that coordinated action by a number of state institutions gave rise to paramilitaries tasked with altering borders while maintaining plausible deniability for the sponsoring regime. The outsourcing of violence by the state to paramilitaries led to a significant weakening of the very state these units and their sponsors swore to protect. The book also analyzes differences between the units and how they attacked civilians, arguing that the different forms of violence stemmed not only from the function they fulfilled for the state but also the ways in which they were set up and operated. The final chapter brings the different strands of the argument together into a coherent whole, suggesting avenues for further research, in the former Yugoslavia and beyond. This book will be of much interest to students of ethnic conflict and civil war, war crimes, Balkan politics, and International Relations in general.

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