In the December 2013 IMF Research Bulletin, the Research Summaries look at “Reforming Dual Labor Markets in Advanced Economies” (Giovanni Ganelli) and “Rating Through-The-Cycle: What Does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability Accuracy” (John Kiff, Michael Kisser, and Liliana Schumacher). The Q&A discusses Seven Questions on Financial Crises (Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia). This issue also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes, as well as Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. The top-viewed articles from recent of issues of “IMF Economic Review” are featured.
This paper presents a forward-looking implementation plan for the above-cited Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) report. During the Board discussion, Executive Directors noted that the report “provides a balanced assessment of the quality, relevance, management, and utilization of IMF research” and “were particularly encouraged by the overall finding that a large number of IMF analytical papers are of high quality, widely read, and appreciated by country authorities and the research community.” At the same time, they noted the finding that “IMF research is of uneven quality and perceived to be message driven.” Directors therefore saw scope for “enhancing the relevance and technical quality of the analytical work, openness to alternative points of view, and coordination of research activities across the institution.”
This issue of the IMF Research Perspective looks at the inter-connectedness of the world economic system and how diverse shocks can affect global supply chains. The articles in this issue track the way COVID-19 triggered disruptions in the supply chain and explains why trade networks are so difficult to disentangle. However, the pandemic is not the only event affecting global supply chains; cross-border spillovers of technology wars and natural disasters are other factors to consider. The overarching message from these articles is clear: there is a need for international cooperation to deal with the consequences of these shocks—whether it is ending the COVID-19 pandemic or mitigating climate change.
This paper reports for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. UIP is a classic topic of international finance, a critical building block of most theoretical models, and a dismal empirical failure. UIP states that the interest differential is, on average, equal to the ex post exchange rate change. UIP may work differently for countries in crisis, whose exchange and interest rates both display considerably more volatility. This volatility raises the stakes for financial markets and central banks; it also may provide a more statistically powerful test for the UIP hypothesis. Policy-exploitable deviations from UIP are, therefore, a necessary condition for an interest rate defense. There is a considerable amount of heterogeneity in the results, which differ wildly by country.
In the June 2016 issue of IMF Research Bulletin, Eugenio Cerutti interviews Lars E.O. Svensson. Lars, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, was a Visiting Scholar at the IMF. In the interview, he discusses monetary policy, financial stability, and life at the IMF. The Bulletin also features a listing of recent Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and key IMF publications. The table of contents from the latest issue of IMF Economic Review is also included.
From the Foreword to the first issue: “Among the responsibilities of the International Monetary Fund, as set forth in the Articles of Agreement, is the obligation to fact as a center for the collection and exchange of information on monetary and financial problems,’ and thereby to facilitate ‘the preparation of studies designed to assist members in developing policies which further the purposes of the Fund.’ The publications of the Fund are one way in which this responsibility is discharged. “Through the publication of Staff Papers, the Fund is making available some of the work of members of its staff. The Fund believes that these papers will be found helpful by government officials, by professional economists, and by others concerned with monetary and financial problems. Much of what is now presented is quite provisional. On some international monetary problems, final and definitive views are scarcely to be expected in the near future, and several alternative, or even conflicting, approaches may profitably be explored. The views presented in these papers are not, therefore, to be interpreted as necessarily indicating the position of the Executive Board or of the officials of the Fund.”
Stock and bond issues and capital markets in less developed countries (LDCs) have recently received increasing attention from policymakers, and this preliminary study provides a cross-country survey of the actual experience of LDCs in this respect. Capital markets in LDCs are markedly underdeveloped, reflecting a combination of historical circumstances, current level of economic and financial development, and government policy—including inflation and low interest rates on government debt. Through its regulatory powers, the government can do much to reduce uncertainty (and, hence, risk). Supervising capital markets has several dimensions: preventing fraud; improving information; reducing transactions costs; and developing capital market techniques and institutions. Information on the Brazilian experience includes the fact that a strong, self-sustained capital market has not yet been established, despite the gains made. Tax incentives do provide a way of promoting capital market development, but the benefits of initial development must be judged in terms of the cost of tax receipts forgone.
In the December 2013 IMF Research Bulletin, the Research Summaries look at “Reforming Dual Labor Markets in Advanced Economies” (Giovanni Ganelli) and “Rating Through-The-Cycle: What Does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability Accuracy” (John Kiff, Michael Kisser, and Liliana Schumacher). The Q&A discusses Seven Questions on Financial Crises (Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia). This issue also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes, as well as Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. The top-viewed articles from recent of issues of “IMF Economic Review” are featured.
The September 2016 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin includes the following two Research Summaries: “A New Look at Bank Capital” (by Jihad Dagher, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, Luc Laeven, Lev Ratnovski, and Hui Tong) and “Does Growth Create Jobs?: Evidence for Advance and Developing Economies (by Zidong An, Nathalie Gonzalez Prieto, Prakash Loungani, and Saurabh Mishra). The Q&A article by Rabah Arezki discusses “Seven Questions on Rethinking the Oil Market in the Aftermath of the 2014-16 Price Slump.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications are also included. Readers can also find an announcement on the 2016 Annual Research Conference and links to top cited 2015 articles in the IMF Economic Review.
This paper presents main characteristics of a typical oil economy. Estimates of proven oil reserves in Saudi Arabia differ widely, ranging from estimates by ARAMCO and the other companies of about 100 billion barrels to figures exceeding 150 billion barrels. In 1969, two US firms commissioned by the Saudi Arabian Government completed studies of the country's oil reserves, estimating 126.4 billion barrels for the fields surveyed. Growth of oil production in Saudi Arabia has been determined largely by exogenous factors connected with the growth of world demand for oil and fluctuations in supplies from other producing areas. Industrial and agricultural development in Saudi Arabia has been constrained by the scarcity of natural resources, other than oil. Agricultural and fishery resources can be potentially significant, but only recently have they been systematically explored. Based on a clear comparative advantage in the supply of oil and natural gas, industrial development in Saudi Arabia is proceeding from oil production and refining to petrochemicals and to other energy-intensive industries.
It has been two years since the trade tensions erupted and not only captured policymakers’ but also the research community’s attention. Research has quickly zoomed in on understanding trade war rhetoric, tariff implementation, and economic impacts. The first article in the December 2019 issue sheds light on the consequences of the recent trade barriers.
The research summaries in the March 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Foreign Direct Investment and the Crisis: Is This Time Different?" (by Yuko Kinoshita) and "Food Prices and Inflation" (by James P. Walsh). The Q&A covers seven questions on "Unemployment through the Prism of the Great Recession" (by Prakash Loungani). This issue also launches a new feature "Conversations with Visiting Scholars" with an interview with Tom Sargent, winner of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. Also included in this issue are details on visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers, and information on the next issue of "IMF Economic Review.
The research summaries in the September 2012 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin are "Surges in Capital Flows: Why History Repeats Itself" (by Mahvash S. Qureshi) and "The LIC-BRIC Linkage: Growth Spillovers" (by Issouf Samake, Yongzheng Yang, and Catherine Pattillo). The Q&A covers "Seven Questions on Monetary Transmission in Low-Income Countries" (by Prachi Mishra and Peter Montiel). "Conversations with a Visiting Scholar" features an interview with IMF Fellow Olivier Coibion. Also included in this issue are details on the IMF Fellowship Program, visiting scholars at the IMF, a listing of recently published IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, and an announcement on IMF Economic Review's first Impact Factor.
The relationship between the degree of wage indexation chosen by private agents and the degree of public debt indexation chosen by the government is examined. It is shown that the government is likely to increase public debt indexation in response to an increase in wage indexation. By contrast, higher public debt indexation has an ambiguous effect on wage indexation. In equilibrium, wage and public debt indexation may be positively or negatively related. This relationship is analyzed in situations where the policymakers can precommit to policies and in those they cannot.
The Research Summaries in the December 2012 IMF Research Bulletin look at "Market Failures and Macroprudential Policy" (Giovanni Favara and Lev Ratnovski) and "Measurement Matters for House Price Indices" (Mick Silver). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle." The Bulletin also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as a list of the top-viewed articles for the first three issues of IMF Economic Review in 2012. Information is also included on a call for papers for the conference "Asia: Challenges of Stability and Growth" to be held in Seoul in 2013.
The determinants of current account imbalances under floating exchange rates are analyzed. The analysis provides a framework within which the sources of. and the remedies for, the current account imbalances between the United States, Japan, and the Federal Republic of Germany can be discussed. The effects of various government policies are emphasized, in particular the differences between expenditure-changing and expenditure-switching policies. Short-run and long-run considerations are investigated, as well as the role played by expectations and price-level dynamics.
This paper examines contractionary currency crashes in developing countries. It explores the causes of India’s productivity surge around 1980, more than a decade before serious economic reforms were initiated. The paper finds evidence that the trigger may have been an attitudinal shift by the government in the early 1980s that, unlike the reforms of the 1990s, was pro-business rather than pro-market in character, favoring the interests of existing businesses rather than new entrants or consumers. A relatively small shift elicited a large productivity response, because India was far away from its income possibility frontier.
The Summer 2017 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin highlights new research such as recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes. The Research Summaries are “Structural Reform Packages, Sequencing, and the Informal Economy (by Zsuzsa Munkacsi and Magnus Saxegaard) and “A Broken Social Contract, Not High Inequality Led to the Arab Spring” (by Shantayanan Devarajan and Elena Ianchovichina). The Q&A section features “Seven Questions on Fintech” (by Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli). The Bulletin also includes information on recommended titles from IMF Publications and the latest articles from the IMF Economic Review.
Selections from this paper were delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 8, 1965.
The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.
This paper provides an overview of the recent theoretical and empirical research on herd behavior in financial markets. It looks at what precisely is meant by herding, the causes of herd behavior, the success of existing studies in identifying the phenomenon, and the effect that herding has on financial markets. The paper also surveys a selected number of studies that evaluated the demand for money using the error-correction model approach in the 1990s across a range of industrial and developing countries.
This is the final issue for 2006 (Volume 53), and contains another paper in the occasional Special Data Section that seeks to measure financial development in the Middle East and North Africa by utilizing a new database. The issue also contains a comment from Jacques J. Polak on parity reversion in real exchange rates.
The Research Summaries in this issue of the IMF Research Bulletin cover “Tax Capacity and Growth” (by Vitor Gaspar, Laura Jaramillo, and Philippe Wingender), and “U.S. Shale Revolution and Its Spillover Effects on the Global Economy” (Ravi Balakrishnan, Keiko Honjo, Akito Matsumoto, and Andrea Pescatori). The Q&A coauthored by Amadou Sy and Mariama Sow covers “Seven Questions about the Relationship between Country Finance and Governance.” A listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from IMF Publications is included in the IMF Research Bulletin. Readers can also find news on free-to-view articles from IMF Economic Review and a call for conference papers in this issue of the Bulletin.
Studies of the impact of trade openness on growth are based either on crosscountry analysis—which lacks transparency—or case studies—which lack statistical rigor. This paper applies a transparent econometric method drawn from the treatment evaluation literature (matching estimators) to make the comparison between treated (that is, open) and control (that is, closed) countries explicit while remaining within a statistical framework. Matching estimators highlight that common cross-country evidence is based on rather far-fetched country comparisons, which stem from the lack of common support of treated and control countries in the covariate space. The paper therefore advocates paying more attention to appropriate sample restriction in crosscountry macro research.
This first issue of IMF Staff Papers for 2005 contains 7 papers that discuss: whether output recovered after the Asian crisis; the value of a country's trading partners to its own economic growth; whether interdependence is a factor in understanding the spread of currency crises; can remittance payments from expatriates be a reliable source of capital for economic development?; total factor productivity; designing a VAT for the energy trade in Russia and Ukraine; and lastly, a discussion of the reasons for central bank intervention in ERM-I since 1993
This paper reports the results of some preliminary research into the repercussions, for income distribution, of stabilization programs associated with the use of IMF resources in the upper credit tranches. In the first section, it explores the relationship between the balance of payments and the distribution of income from a theoretical perspective. The general concern is whether adjustment influences the distribution of income in some systematic manner; the concern is to delineate the conditions under which a decline in the real wage is necessary for adjustment actually to take place. Using neoclassical analysis, one finds that the ratio of the nominal wage to the price of exports must decline, but whether this involves a fall in the overall real wage depends on many variables, including the relative proportions of traded and nontraded goods in the consumer's market basket. Second, it presents a qualitative analysis of the distributional effects of the measures that tend to be included in these programs, viz., ceilings on net credit expansion, currency depreciation, and the relaxation and simplification of exchange restrictions and controls.
This study analyzes the circumstances under which monetary policy can be conducted to improve the stability of both monetary growth and exchange rates. For this purpose, the paper develops a portfolio balance model and tests its implications using parameter estimates for the United States and the United Kingdom. The principal finding is that there is a limited set of conditions in which stability of monetary growth and stability of exchange rates are consistent policy objectives. The two intervention rules compared here are stylized versions of rules that are commonly employed by central banks in countries with well-developed financial markets: control of the growth of the monetary base and control of a short-term interest rate. It is shown that a general rule is that when the supply function for money is more variable than the demand function, then monetary stability and exchange rate stability are likely to be operationally consistent targets.
It is argued in this paper that, since economic welfare is influenced by the payments objectives pursued by countries, economists should explore the objectives that are indicated as being appropriate by welfare economics, rather than accepting objectives that have been arbitrarily specified and restricting their analysis to the question of how those objectives can be achieved. The concept of payments objectives involves targets for both the change in reserves and the structure of the balance of payments. The paper assumes that the private sector supplies the optimal quantity of stabilizing speculation, so that there is no need for reserves to change, and the problem is solely that of determining the optimal capital flow. This permits a discussion of the sources of welfare gain from capital flows, the qualifications to the classical prescription of free capital flows, and the case for a code of conduct to limit countries' freedom to restrict capital movements. It also implies that in the long run any maldistribution of reserves should be corrected by adjusting the current account rather than by borrowing reserves or manipulating the capital account.
Although accommodative policies and widespread indexation may account for the persistence of high inflation, they cannot explain changes in the inflation rate. The causes of such changes for the high-inflation episodes immediately preceding the recent “heterodox” attempts at stabilization in Argentina, Brazil, and Israel are examined by computing historical decompositions of these episodes based on vector autoregressions, distinguishing between the “fiscal” and “balance of payments” views of their causes. In all three cases, nominal exchange rate shocks played the dominant role in triggering an acceleration of inflation. [JEL 134]
This paper discusses the underlying objectives of the exchange rate regime are necessarily related to broader objectives of the international financial system and the international economy. The exchange rate regime should help to promote a satisfactory working of the adjustment process. The exchange rate regime should help to promote, or at least support, the pursuit of economic and financial policies that contribute to countries’ domestic objectives, as regards both real economic variables and financial variables, notably including the degree of price stability. Attainment of the underlying objectives for the exchange rate regime suggests a number of instrumental or operational desiderata, which are listed below without regard to potential conflict between them and therefore without consideration of any trade-off among themselves. A system of adjustable parities and narrow margins should score well on the objective of exchange stability, provided that the adjustments are not too large or too frequent.
This paper analyzes the efficacy of alternative financial stabilization policies in response to disturbances from various sources. A model, appropriate to the institutional structure of a developing country, is estimated. The model is subjected to shocks from the domestic real economy, domestic financial circumstances, and the external terms of trade. Alternative policy reactions are evaluated with respect to each of these shocks. A few generalizations may be drawn from the results. First, exchange rate changes are a powerful instrument of adjustment, even when the estimated price elasticities of trade are small. Second, even in a country that does not have an open financial system that is integrated with the rest of the world, monetary conditions have a large and rapid effect on the balance of payments. The appropriate policy response to any disturbance depends on the expected duration of the disturbance. The benefits of avoiding excessive early adjustment must be weighed against the costs of a probable greater and more painful, adjustment at a later stage.
This paper uses microeconomic panel data to examine differences in the cyclical variability of employment, hours, and real wages for skilled and unskilled workers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, it finds that, at the aggregate level, skilled and unskilled workers are subject to the same degree of cyclical variation in wages. However, the quality of labor input is found to rise in recessions, inducing a countercyclical bias in aggregate measures of the real wage. The paper also finds substantial differences across industries in the cyclical variation of employment, hours, and wage differentials, indicating important interindustry differences in labor contracting.
The purpose of the present study is to review these concepts and to estimate consistent series of potential output in manufacturing for Canada, the United States, Japan, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Sweden for the period 1955–1975. Potential output series are also projected for the medium term (1976–1978) based on forecasts of available resources. The production function method is selected as the best approach to derive potential output series. The function used in the paper is a modified Cobb–Douglas function that allows for economies of scale and cyclical variations in the intensity of use of employed labor and of the capital stock. The study concludes that the rate of growth of potential output in manufacturing is now lower in most industrial countries than it was in the late 1960s. However, the fall is not as large as is often claimed, so that the output gaps early in 1976 were extremely high in all the major industrial countries. The principal reasons for the slowdown in the rate of growth of potential output are the lower rate of capital accumulation and the reduction of the normal workweek, rather than the direct effect of the increase in the price of energy.
This paper discusses how three countries in Europe—Austria, Turkey, and Finland—emerged from a prolonged inflation, restored viable economies, and resumed economic growth in the 1950s. It also attempts to draw some conclusions based on their experience as well as the experience of some other countries. In mid-1949 the Austrian Government requested assistance from the IMF in the formulation of measures that could lead the economy out of the accelerating price-wage spiral. The key issue was to find a policy mix which would lessen the burden on the budget but would help to maintain full employment. Representatives of industry agreed to the stabilization program only after they were persuaded that it was only through the program that industries could hope to maintain the prosperity that they had enjoyed in the early post-war years. They also realized that it was only thus that they could be freed of detailed government regulations which had become onerous.
This paper examines effects of economic growth and speed of adjustment on openness, human development, and fiscal policies. The model developed in this paper postulates that learning through experience raises labor productivity with three major consequences. First, the steady-state growth rate of output becomes endogenous and is influenced by government policies. Second, the speed of adjustment to steady-state growth increases and enhanced learning further reduces adjustment time. Third, both steady-state growth and the optimal net rate of return to capital are higher than the sum of the exogenous rates of technical change and population growth.
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