International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department's Books

Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects

By: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects

This paper addresses three questions about unconventional monetary policies. First, what policies were tried, and with what objectives? Second, were policies effective? And third, what role might these policies continue to play in the future?

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ISBN 10

1498341985

ISBN 13

9781498341981

The IMF Financial Surveillance Strategy

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Office of Budget and Planning

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The IMF Financial Surveillance Strategy

This paper outlines strategic priorities for the IMF’s financial surveillance in the coming years. It complements recent discussions on the work agenda in this area. It takes stock of innovations and gaps in financial surveillance by the Fund during the past decade, including in the wake of the current global financial crisis. It proposes concrete and prioritized steps to further strengthen financial surveillance so that the Fund can fulfill its mandate to ensure the effective operation of the international monetary system and support global economic and financial stability.

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ISBN 10

1498339948

ISBN 13

9781498339940

The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

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The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

The recent crisis showed that price stability does not guarantee macroeconomic stability. In several countries, dangerous financial imbalances developed under low inflation and small output gaps. To ensure macroeconomic stability, policy has to include financial stability as an additional objective. But a new objective demands new tools: macroprudential tools that can target specific sources of financial imbalances (something monetary policy is not well suited to do). Effective macroprudential policies (which include a range of constraints on leverage and the composition of balance sheets) could then contain risks ex ante and help build buffers to absorb shocks ex post.

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ISBN 10

1498339506

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9781498339506

Review Of The Fund’s Policy On Multiple Currency Practices

Initial Considerations

By: International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

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Review Of The Fund’s Policy On Multiple Currency Practices

Initial Considerations

This paper reviews the Fund’s policy on multiple currency practices (MCPs). There remain strong economic and legal reasons to retain a policy on MCPs. The over-arching aim of the review is to make the policy and its application more effective. Based on this review, the paper proposes initial considerations for reforming features of the policy that have created challenges. • Clarifying the concept of “official action” to focus on measures that segment FX markets. • Eliminating potentiality. • Updating the threshold for permissible FX spreads. • Adjusting approval policies. • Reviewing links with capital transactions. • Considering merits of a remedial framework.

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130

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

149831886X

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9781498318860

The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt - Preliminary Considerations

By: International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

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The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt - Preliminary Considerations

As a follow-up to the Executive Board's May 2013 discussion, this paper considers a possible direction for reform of the Fund's lending framework in the context of sovereign debt vulnerabilities. The primary focus of this paper relates to the Fund's exceptional access framework, since it is in this context that the Fund will most likely have to make the difficult judgment as to whether the member's problems can be resolved with or without a debt restructuring. The objective of the preliminary approaches set forth in this paper is to reduce the costs of crisis resolution for both creditors and debtors—relative to the alternatives—thereby benefitting the overall system. These ideas are market-based and their eventual implementation would require meaningful consultation with creditors.

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149834335X

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9781498343350

2016 External Sector Report - Individual Economy Assessments

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2016 External Sector Report - Individual Economy Assessments

The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report, also IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis and the estimates are subject to uncertainty. The assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position. The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.

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1498345522

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9781498345521

Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations

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Assessing Fiscal Space - An Initial Consistent Set of Considerations

Fiscal space is a multi-dimensional concept reflecting whether a government can raise spending or lower taxes without endangering market access and debt sustainability. Making such a determination requires a comprehensive approach considering, among other things, initial economic and structural conditions, market access, the level and trajectory of public debt, present and future financing needs, and dynamic analysis of the liquidity and solvency of the fiscal position under alternative policies. Balancing these considerations involves careful analysis and judgment. Fund staff has over the years developed a variety of indicators to inform assessments of fiscal space in bilateral and multilateral surveillance. The Fund’s core operational framework for such analysis is the debt sustainability framework, which includes a number of indicators, while allowing room for staff judgment. Surveillance also relies importantly on indicators developed by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)––including those that have been used in the internal Vulnerability Exercise and Fiscal Monitors––while more recent methods based on fiscal stress tests and probabilistic approaches proposed in IMF (2016) are also promising. In addition, teams have used scenario analysis and general equilibrium modeling approaches to evaluate fiscal policy choices and their implications for sustainability. When applied to fiscal space, each indicator and approach has pros and cons and none covers all the relevant factors. Ultimately, therefore, assessing fiscal space requires judgment, informed by a broad range of tools. This note seeks to bring together various approaches developed by Fund staff to outline a consistent set of considerations and indicators to help inform assessments of fiscal space, especially for advanced and emerging markets. The intent is to facilitate continued consistency between country team assessments by providing some common considerations and approaches to inform their judgment. The proposed framework will support Fund surveillance and policy advice going forward, informing discussions of the appropriate fiscal stance at all stages of the economic cycle.

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ISBN 10

1498345581

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9781498345583

2013 Spillover Report

By: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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2013 Spillover Report

Five years after the global financial crisis, the severe tensions and risks rooted last year in some of the “Systemic five” (S5)—China, euro area, Japan, United Kingdom, United States––have abated but all five are still operating below potential, i.e., they are not contributing to global activity as much as they might: if they could somehow close their output gaps, global output would be closer to potential by 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, many parts of the rest of the world have been at or near potential. Most recently though, there have been signs of accelerated recovery in the United States and slowdown in emerging markets. This continued divergence in cyclical positions poses a global challenge, namely to find policies that help the S5 close their output gap without over-stimulating or over-tightening, through spillovers, economies that do not need it.

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149834156X

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9781498341561

The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies - Background Paper

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

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The Interaction of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies - Background Paper

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

This paper provides background material to support the Board paper on the interaction of monetary and macroprudential policies. It analyzes the scope for and evidence on interactions between monetary and macroprudential policies. It first reviews a recent conceptual literature on interactive effects that arise when both macroprudential and monetary policy are employed. It goes on to explore the “side effects” of monetary policy on financial stability and their implications for macroprudential policy. It finally addresses the strength of possible effects of macroprudential policies on output and price stability, and draws out implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

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1498339514

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9781498339513

Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

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Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention

This note guides policy advice on the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) as part of the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in Fund surveillance. The note provides general principles for the advice in countries with flexible exchange rates and sets out three use cases for FXI that are tied to specific frictions. It explores the use of FXI as part of an overall policy response, allowing the advice to differ with shocks, frictions, and country-specific circumstances.

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9798400263842

2017 Staff Guidance Note on the Fund's Engagement with Small Developing States

By: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

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2017 Staff Guidance Note on the Fund's Engagement with Small Developing States

This guidance note highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing small developing states. It provides operational guidance on Fund engagement with such countries, including on how small state characteristics might shape Fund surveillance and financial support, program design, capacity building activities, and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in May 2014. It incorporates modifications resulting from Board papers and related Executive Board discussions that have taken place since the March 2013 Board papers on small states, which provided the foundations of the original guidance note. Based on these inputs, five key thematic areas (G.R.O.W.TH.) have been identified as central to the policy dialogue: • Growth and job creation. With small states experiencing relatively weak growth since the 1990s, Fund staff working on small states should ensure an explicit focus on growth in both surveillance and program-related work. • Resilience to shocks. Small states experience higher macroeconomic volatility and more frequent natural disasters. Staff should be ready to advise on how to tailor macroeconomic policies to provide greater resilience to shocks and climate change. • Overall competitiveness. Options to improve relative prices may include exchange rate adjustment (where possible) or measures supportive of internal devaluation (if not), and efforts to improve the business climate, including through regional initiatives. • Workable fiscal and debt sustainability options. With many small states having very high debt burdens, reducing debt to manageable levels requires sustained fiscal consolidation with supporting policies and structural reforms. In cases where the amount of adjustment needed to restore debt sustainability is not feasible or adequate financing is not available, debt restructuring may be needed. • Thin financial sectors. Developing deeper and more competitive, yet sound, financial sectors contributes to macroeconomic stability and enhances the effectiveness of policy interventions while strengthening competitiveness by improving business access to financial services.

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1498307590

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9781498307598

Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries - Background Paper 1

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. European Dept.,International Monetary Fund. African Dept.,World Bank

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Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks for Resource-Rich Developing Countries - Background Paper 1

This paper provides deeper insights on a few themes with regard to the experience with macroeconomic management in resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). First, some stylized facts on the performance of these economies relative to their non-resource peers are provided. Second, the experience of Fund engagement in these economies with respect to surveillance, programs, and technical assistance is assessed. Third, the experience of selected countries with good practices in the management of the natural resource wealth is presented. Fourth, the experience of IMF advice in helping RRDCs set up resource funds is discussed. Finally, the main themes and messages from the IMF staff consultation with external stakeholders (CSOs, policy makers, academics) are presented.

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1498339980

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9781498339988

Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects - Background Paper

By: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects - Background Paper

By: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

This paper provides background information to the main Board paper, “The Role and Limits of Unconventional Monetary Policy.” This paper is divided in five distinct sections, each focused on a different topic covered in the main paper, though most relate to bond purchase programs. As a result, this paper centers on the experience of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), mostly leaving the European Central Bank (ECB) aside given its focus on restoring the functioning of financial markets and intermediation. Section A explores whether bond purchase programs were effective at decreasing bond yields and, if so, through which channels. Section B goes one step further in evaluating whether bond purchase programs had—or can be expected to have—significant effects on real growth and inflation. Section C studies the spillover effects of bond purchases on both advanced and emerging market economies, using very similar methods as introduced in the first section. Section D breaks from the immediate focus on bond purchases to discuss how inflation might decrease the debt burden in advanced economies, in light of possible pressures that could fall (or be perceived to fall) on central banks. Finally, Section E discusses the possible risks of exiting given the very large central bank balance sheets.

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1498341977

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9781498341974

Financial Integration in Latin America

By: International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

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Financial Integration in Latin America

Many Latin American economies have experienced significant reductions in growth recently, as a result of the end of the commodity super-cycle and the rebalancing of China’s growth, and a number of global banks have been leaving the region. AlthoughLatin American countries were generally less affected by the global financial crisis (GFC) than other regions, the region continues also to suffer from the protracted sluggish growth in advanced economies. In addition, there has since 2008 been a withdrawal of global banks from the region, thus potentially worsening access to credit or reducing competition in the financial sector. More broadly, the GFC demonstrated that extreme economic volatility can originate from outside the region, rather than internally, as was the experience of the 1980s and 1990s...

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198

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1498345891

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9781498345897

Review of Fund Facilities-Analytical Basis for Fund Lending and Reform Options

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Review of Fund Facilities-Analytical Basis for Fund Lending and Reform Options

In the context of the ongoing review of Fund facilities, this paper examines the analytical basis for Fund lending in emerging market countries and provides a broad-ranging perspective for reforming the General Resources Account (GRA) lending toolkit. The Fund’s important lending role in crisis prevention and resolution is buttressed by its unique characteristics: (i) its ability as a nonatomistic lender to provide large-scale financing and reduce the likelihood of a run by private creditors; (ii) its ability as a cooperative institution with near-universal membership to agree conditionality with members, thus providing national authorities with a policy commitment tool to underpin confidence and catalyze private lending; and (iii) its de facto preferred creditor status, which allows it to provide crisis financing when private creditors may be reluctant to lend.

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1498336310

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9781498336314

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2005

Market Developments and Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2005

Market Developments and Issues

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) provides expert and up-to-date analysis of global capital flows that play a critical role in world economic growth and Financial stability. The report focuses on current conditions in global Financial markets, analyzing Financial imbalances and structural issues that could pose risks to stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. Along with the IMF’s semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for communicating the IMF’s multilateral surveillance. The GFSR also draws out the Financial ramifcations of economic imbalances highlighted by the WEO, making it an indispensable companion publication.

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220

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ISBN 10

1589064186

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9781589064188

Reviews of the Fund's Sovereign ARREARS Policies and Perimeter

By: International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department

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Reviews of the Fund's Sovereign ARREARS Policies and Perimeter

This paper undertakes a comprehensive review of the Fund’s sovereign arrears policies. Staff assesses that the Fund’s Lending into Arrears to Private Creditors (LIA) policy (established in 1989 and last reviewed in 2002) remains broadly appropriate, while recommending some improvements given the experience gained over the last 20 years. Staff also sees merit in codifying the existing practice guiding the Fund in preemptive debt restructurings into a Fund policy, together with an amendment focusing on debt transparency. Given limited experience with the application of the LIOA policy (established in 2015), staff does not propose any amendments but only one restatement confirming current practice. Given recent developments in the international creditor community, staff proposes refining the Fund’s arrears policies with respect to multilateral creditors. Finally, recent developments raise questions about the perimeter between official bilateral and private claims, with significant implications for the Fund’s arrears policies.

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129

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ISBN 13

9798400210556

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015

Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2015

Navigating Monetary Policy Challenges and Managing Risks

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

The current report finds that, despite an improvement in economic prospects in some key advanced economies, new challenges to global financial stability have arisen. The global financial system is being buffeted by a series of changes, including lower oil prices and, in some cases, diverging growth patterns and monetary policies. Expectations for rising U.S. policy rates sparked a significant appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while long term bond yields in many advanced economies have decreased—and have turned negative for almost a third of euro area sovereign bonds—on disinflation concerns and the prospect of continued monetary accommodation. Emerging markets are caught in these global cross currents, with some oil exporters and other facing new stability challenges, while others have gained more policy space as a result of lower fuel prices and reduced inflationary pressures. The report also examines changes in international banking since the global financial crisis and finds that these changes are likely to promote more stable bank lending in host countries. Finally, the report finds that the asset management industry needs to strengthen its oversight framework to address financial stability risks from incentive problems between end-investors and portfolio managers and the risk of runs due to liquidity mismatches.

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162

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475547587

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9781475547580

2016 External Sector Report

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2016 External Sector Report

After narrowing in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and remaining broadly unchanged in recent years, global imbalances increased moderately in 2015, amid a reconfiguration of current accounts and exchange rates. Shifts in 2015 were driven primarily by the uneven strength of the recovery in advanced economies, the redistributive effects of the sharp fall in commodity prices, and tighter external financing conditions for emerging markets (EMs). A relatively stronger U.S. outlook led to a further appreciation of the USD and a depreciation of the yen and the euro. The sharp decline in commodity prices, reflecting both supply shocks and concerns about rebalancing and growth in China, brought about a significant redistribution of income from commodity exporters to importers, and a weakening of commodity exporters’ currencies. Meanwhile, heightened global risk aversion, contributed to softer capital inflows and depreciation pressures in many EMs. This moderate widening of current account imbalances was largely driven by systemic economies. Surpluses in Japan, the euro area and China grew, supported by improved terms of trade and currency depreciation, while the current account deficit in the U.S. widened amid the steep appreciation of the USD. These widening imbalances were only partially offset by narrowing surpluses in large oil exporters and smaller deficits in vulnerable EMs and some euro area debtor countries. Similarly, excess imbalances expanded in 2015. External positions in the U.S. and Japan moved from being broadly in line with fundamentals to being “moderately weaker” and “moderately stronger”, respectively. This was partly offset by a further narrowing of excess deficits in vulnerable EMs and euro area debtor countries. Meanwhile, excess surpluses persisted among the larger surplus countries, some of which remain “substantially stronger” than fundamentals (Germany, Korea). Currency movements since end-2015 helped to partially reverse the trends observed last year, although market volatility following the result of the U.K. referendum to leave the European Union have led to a strengthening of the USD and yen along with a weakening of the sterling, euro, and EM currencies. The implications for external assessments going forward, especially for the U.K. and the euro area, remains uncertain and will likely depend on how the transition is managed and on what new arrangements are adopted. With output below potential in most countries, and limited policy space in many, balancing internal and external objectives will require careful policy calibration. In general, a more balanced policy mix that avoids excessive reliance on policies with significant demanddiverting effects is necessary, with greater emphasis on demand-supportive measures and structural reforms. Surplus countries with fiscal space have a greater role to play in supporting global demand while reducing external imbalances. Global collective policy action, especially if downside risks materialize, would also help address global demand weakness while mitigating its effects on external imbalances.

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1498345549

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9781498345545

2013 Pilot External Sector Report

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2013 Pilot External Sector Report

The IMF’s Second Pilot External Sector Report presents a multilaterally consistent assessment of the largest economies’ external sector positions and policies for 2012-2013 H1. The report integrates the analysis from the Fund’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance to provide a coherent assessment of exchange rates, current accounts, reserves, capital flows, and external balance sheets. The report takes into account feedback received on the previous report by placing a greater emphasis on capital flows and through further refinements to the EBA methodology. Together with the Spillover Report and Article IV consultations (with their heightened focus on spillovers), this Report is part of a continuous effort to ensure the Fund is in a good position to address the possible effects of spillovers from members’ policies on global stability and monitor the stability of members’ external sectors in a comprehensive manner.

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1498341624

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9781498341622

The Fund's Response to the 2007-08 Financial Crisis - Stocktaking and Collaboration with the Financial Stability Forum

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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The Fund's Response to the 2007-08 Financial Crisis - Stocktaking and Collaboration with the Financial Stability Forum

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

The present financial crisis is testing the resilience of the global financial system as well as the robustness of national and multilateral policy frameworks. As requested by Executive Directors, this paper reviews recent progress in meeting these challenges, focusing on the role of the Fund and its collaboration with the Financial Stability Forum (FSF). In concert with other international bodies, the Fund has sought to promote appropriate policy responses to the financial turmoil, including through its report on The Recent Financial Turmoil—Initial Assessment, Policy Lessons, and Implications for Fund Surveillance, in the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) and the World Economic Outlook (WEO), as well as in recent Article IV consultations and Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs). The Fund has also responded to the International Monetary and Financial Committee’s (IMFC) call for closer collaboration with other international fora, including by supporting the implementation of policy lessons from the crisis, such as the 67 FSF recommendations issued in April 2008.

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1498334164

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9781498334167

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024

The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024

The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Chapter 1 documents that near-term global financial stability risks have receded amid expectations that global disinflation is entering its last mile. However, along it, there are several salient risks and a build-up of medium-term vulnerabilities. Chapter 2 assesses vulnerabilities and potential risks to financial stability in corporate private credit, a rapidly growing asset class—traditionally focused on providing loans to midsize firms outside the realms of either commercial banks or public debt markets—that now rivals other major credit markets in size. Chapter 3 shows that while cyber incidents have thus far not been systemic, the probability of severe cyber incidents has increased, posing an acute threat to macrofinancial stability.

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124

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ISBN 13

9798400257704

Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015

Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015

Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

The October 2015 Global Financial Stability Report finds that, despite an improvement in financial stability in advanced economies, risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets. The global financial outlook is clouded by a triad of policy challenges: emerging market vulnerabilities, legacy issues from the crisis in advanced economies, and weak systemic market liquidity. With more vulnerable balance sheets in emerging market companies and banks, firms in these countries are more susceptible to financial stress, economic downturn, and capital outflows. Recent market developments such as slumping commodity prices, China’s bursting equity bubble, and pressure on exchange rates underscore these challenges. The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve gradually raising interest rates points to an unprecedented adjustment in the global financial system as financial conditions and risk premiums “normalize” from historically low levels alongside rising policy rates and a modest cyclical recovery. The report also examines the factors that influence levels of liquidity in securities markets, as well as the implications of low liquidity. Currently, market liquidity is being supported by benign cyclical conditions. Although it is too early to assess the impact of recent regulatory changes on market liquidity, changes in market structure, such as larger holdings of corporate bonds by mutual funds, appear to have increased the fragility of liquidity. Finally, the report studies the growing level of corporate debt in emerging markets, which quadrupled between 2004 and 2014. The report finds that global drivers have played an increasing role in leverage growth, issuance, and spreads. Moreover, higher leverage has been associated with, on average, rising foreign currency exposures. It also finds that despite weaker balance sheets, firms have managed to issue bonds at better terms as a result of favorable financial conditions.

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131

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1513515985

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9781513515984

Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows

The Role of Macroprudential Policies - Case Studies

By: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Increasing Resilience to Large and Volatile Capital Flows

The Role of Macroprudential Policies - Case Studies

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498346405

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9781498346405

Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund's Legal and Policy Framework

By: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept,International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Recent Developments and Implications for the Fund's Legal and Policy Framework

his paper reviews the recent application of the Fund’s policies and practices on sovereign debt restructuring. Specifically, the paper: • recaps in a holistic manner the various policies and practices that underpin the Fund's legal and policy framework for sovereign debt restructuring, including on debt sustainability, market access, financing assurances, arrears, private sector involvement (PSI), official sector involvement (OSI), and the use of legal instruments; • reviews how this framework has been applied in the context of Fund-supported programs and highlights the issues that have emerged in light of recent experience with debt restructuring; and • describes recent initiatives in various fora aimed at promoting orderly sovereign debt restructuring, highlighting differences with the Fund’s existing framework. Based on this stocktaking, the paper identifies issues that could be considered in further depth in follow-up work by staff to assess whether the Fund’s framework for debt restructuring should be adapted: • first, debt restructurings have often been too little and too late, thus failing to re-establish debt sustainability and market access in a durable way. Overcoming these problems likely requires action on several fronts, including (i) increased rigor and transparency of debt sustainability and market access assessments, (ii) exploring ways to prevent the use of Fund resources to simply bail out private creditors, and (iii) measures to alleviate the costs associated with restructurings; • second, while creditor participation has been adequate in recent restructurings, the current contractual, market-based approach to debt restructuring is becoming less potent in overcoming collective action problems, especially in pre-default cases. In response, consideration could be given to making the contractual framework more effective, including through the introduction of more robust aggregation clauses into international sovereign bonds bearing in mind the inter-creditor equity issues that such an approach may raise. The Fund may also consider ways to condition use of its financing more tightly to the resolution of collective action problems; • third, the growing role and changing composition of official lending call for a clearer framework for official sector involvement, especially with regard to non-Paris Club creditors, for which the modality for securing program financing commitments could be tightened; and • fourth, although the collaborative, good-faith approach to resolving external private arrears embedded in the lending into arrears (LIA) policy remains the most promising way to regain market access post-default, a review of the effectiveness of the LIA policy is in order in light of recent experience and the increased complexity of the creditor base. Consideration could also be given to extending the LIA policy to official arrears.

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1498341918

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9781498341912

Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR - Initial Considerations

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Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR - Initial Considerations

This paper lays out initial considerations for the quinquennial review of the method of valuation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) currency basket. As in previous reviews, a key objective is to enhance the attractiveness of the SDR as an international reserve asset. In that context, the review will assess the currencies for SDR basket inclusion, currency weights, and the SDR interest rate basket. The paper takes as a starting point the conclusions of the last review in 2010 and the subsequent Board discussion of currency selection criteria in 2011. At the time of the last review, China met the gateway export criterion but the renminbi (RMB) was not included in the SDR basket as it was not judged to be freely usable, the second currency selection criterion. In light of the Board’s broad support in 2011 for the existing legal framework, and since China continues to meet the export criterion, this paper discusses building blocks relevant for a future determination on whether to include the RMB in the basket under the existing criteria.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498344313

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9781498344319

Liberalizing Capital Flows and Managing Outflows - Background Paper

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Liberalizing Capital Flows and Managing Outflows - Background Paper

Liberalization of capital flows can benefit both source and recipient countries by improving resource allocation, reducing financing costs, increasing competition and accelerating the development of domestic financial systems. The empirical evidence, however, is mixed on the benefits, and it suggests that countries benefit most when they meet certain thresholds related to institutional and financial development. The principal cost of capital flow liberalization stems from the economic instability brought on by volatile capital flows. In extreme cases, sudden stops or reversals in capital inflows can trigger financial crises followed by prolonged periods of weak growth.

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1498340849

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9781498340847

Understanding Financial Interconnectedness

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

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Understanding Financial Interconnectedness

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.

This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

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1498336752

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9781498336758

Capital Flows - Review of Experience with the Institutional View

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Capital Flows - Review of Experience with the Institutional View

Capital flows are an important aspect of the international monetary system. They provide significant benefits, both direct and indirect. At the same time, they also carry risks, and a key challenge for countries is how to harness the benefits while managing the risks. The institutional view on the liberalization and management of capital flows provides the Fund with a basis for consistent advice on policies related to capital flows. This paper reviews countries’ experiences with handling capital flows in the period since the adoption of the IMF’s institutional view in 2012. Based on the experience, it identifies a few areas in which the view would benefit from further clarification or elaboration.

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1498345050

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9781498345057

Strengthening the International Monetary System - Taking Stock and Looking Ahead

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

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Strengthening the International Monetary System - Taking Stock and Looking Ahead

The current IMS has survived for over forty years, underpinning strong growth in GDP and in the international exchange of goods and capital, one of its core objectives. As a result, interdependence among the world’s economies has grown dramatically, making the existence of a sound system ever more important. At the same time, the system has exhibited many symptoms of instability—frequent crises, persistent current account imbalances and exchange rate misalignments, volatile capital flows and currencies, and unprecedentedly large reserve accumulation. These symptoms have come to a head since the 2008 crisis and brought renewed international momentum to the idea of attempting to reform the IMS. Yet the debate so far suggests little consensus on the underlying problems, let alone on the solutions. This paper identifies four root causes to these problems: inadequate global adjustment mechanisms to prevent inconsistent or imprudent policies among systemic countries; lack a comprehensive oversight framework for growing cross-border capital flows, covering both source and recipient countries; inadequate systemic liquidity provision mechanisms; and structural challenges in the supply of safe assets.

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ISBN 10

1498339115

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9781498339117

Guidance Note for Fund Staff on the Treatment and Use of SDR Allocations

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Guidance Note for Fund Staff on the Treatment and Use of SDR Allocations

Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis, the IMF has decided to implement a US$250 billion general allocation of special drawing rights (SDRs). In addition, the Fourth Amendment of the Fund’s Articles of Agreement has recently become effective, and will make available to SDR Department participants a special allocation of up to an additional SDR 21.5 billion (US$33 billion). Nearly US$115 billion of these combined allocations will go to emerging market and developing countries, including about US$20 billion to low-income countries (LICs), thereby providing an important boost to the reserves of countries with the greatest needs.

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ISBN 10

1498335632

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9781498335638

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2008

Containing Systemic Risks and Restoring Financial Soundness

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2008

Containing Systemic Risks and Restoring Financial Soundness

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

The events of the past six months have demonstrated the fragility of the global financial system and raised fundamental questions about the effectiveness of the response by private and public sector institutions. The report assesses the vulnerabilities that the system is facing and offers tentative conclusions and policy lessons. The report reflects information available up to March 21, 2008.

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214

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

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ISBN 10

1589067207

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9781589067202

Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments

By: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.,World Bank

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Managing Volatility in Low-Income Countries - The Role and Potential for Contingent Financial Instruments

The paper examines the case for contingent financial instruments for low-income countries (LICs), from both the market and official sector. These include commodity price hedging instruments, contingent debt instruments (commodity-linked bonds, deferred repayment loans), and natural disaster insurance, for example. The paper considers the adequacy of the existing framework of ex post and ex ante support to LICs facing exogenous shocks, and examines the need for and possible constraints to greater availability of contingent instruments. Would there be a role for the international community, particularly the IMF and World Bank, in helping to address the constraints that limit development and use of these instruments?

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498338321

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9781498338325

Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) - Materials Concerning Staff Progress Towards the Development of a Comprehensive AML/CFT Methodology and Assessment Process

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department,International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.,International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

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Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) - Materials Concerning Staff Progress Towards the Development of a Comprehensive AML/CFT Methodology and Assessment Process

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1498328474

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9781498328470

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016

Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016

Potent Policies for a Successful Normalization

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.

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135

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513506773

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9781513506777

Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2007

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2007

By: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Only the IMF is officialy responsible for reporting the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade restrictions, and prudential measures of its 185 member countries. This report draws upon information available to the IMF from a number of sources, including data provided in the course of official staff visits to member countries. Published since 1950, this authoritative, annually updated reference is based upon a unique IMF-maintained database that tracks monetary exchange arrangements for each of its 185 members, including historical information, along with entries for Hong Kong SAR (People's Republic of China) and Aruba and Netherlands Antilles (both Kingdom of the Netherlands). An introduction to the volume provides a summary of recent global trends and developments in the areas covered by the publication. It also provides insight into the types of capital controls most frequently used by countries dealing with increased capital inflows. Individual chapters for each member country report exchange measures in place, the structure and setting of exchange rates, arrangements for payments and receipts, procedures for resident and nonresident accounts, mechanisms for import and export payments and receipts, controls on capital transactions, and provisions specific to the financial sector. A separate section in each chapter lists changes made during 2006 and the first half of 2007. Information is presented in a clear, easy-to-read tabular format.

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1444

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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Published Date

ISBN 10

1589066782

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9781589066786

2021 Financial Sector Assessment Program Review—Towards A More Stable And Sustainable Financial System

By: International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

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2021 Financial Sector Assessment Program Review—Towards A More Stable And Sustainable Financial System

By: International Monetary,International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) Provides In-Depth Assessments Of Financial Sectors. FSAPs Are Usually Conducted Jointly With The World Bank In Emerging Market And Developing Economies And By The Fund Alone In Advanced Economies. Fsaps Provide Valuable Analysis And Policy Recommendations For Surveillance And Capacity Development. Since The Program’s Inception, 157 Fund Members Have Undergone Individual Or Regional Fsaps. In Recent Years, The Fund Has Been Conducting 12–14 Fsaps Per Year At A Cost Of About 3 Percent Of The Fund’s Direct Spending.

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ISBN 10

1513583905

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9781513583907

2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background

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2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background

High uncertainty in general, and high policy uncertainty more specifically, can have important impact on global investment and output growth. Much of the recent policy uncertainty emanated from the United States and Europe—the world’s two largest economies. Spillovers from policy uncertainty can occur through several channels. Trade can be affected if increased policy uncertainty adversely affects economic activity and import demand in the United States and Europe. Policy uncertainty could also raise global risk aversion, resulting in sharp corrections in financial markets and capital outflows from emerging markets. This background note attempts to quantify the impact of U.S. and European policy uncertainty on other regions. Specifically, it addresses the following questions: What do we mean by policy uncertainty? How well can we measure it? How has policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe evolved during the past several decades? And how large are the spillovers to economic activity in other regions? The analysis suggests that sharp increases in U.S. and European policy uncertainty in the past have temporarily lowered investment and output in other regions to varying degrees. It also suggests that a marked decrease in policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe in the near term could help boost global investment and output.

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171

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498341543

ISBN 13

9781498341547

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