Hossein Samiei's Books

Exchange Rate Developments and Policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia

By: Mr.Mark A. Horton,Hossein Samiei,Mr.Natan P. Epstein,Mr.Kevin Ross

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Exchange Rate Developments and Policies in the Caucasus and Central Asia

By: Mr.Mark A. Horton,Hossein Samiei,Mr.Natan P. Epstein,Mr.Kevin Ross

Since late 2014, exchange rates (ERs) and ER regimes of the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries have come under strong pressure. This reflects the decline of oil and other commodity prices, weaker growth in Russia and China, depreciation of the Russian ruble, and appreciation of the U.S. dollar, to which CCA currencies have historically been linked. Weaker fiscal and current account balances and increased dollarization have complicated the picture. CCA countries entered this period with closely managed ER regimes and, in many cases, currencies assessed by IMF staff to be overvalued. CCA central banks have price stability as their main policy objective, and most have relied on ER stability to achieve this objective. Thus, the first policy response involved intervention in local foreign exchange (FX) markets, often with limited communication. In this context, the IMF staff has reviewed ER policy advice and implementation strategies for CCA countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484343867

ISBN 13

9781484343869

Does Public Disagreementon Monetary Policy Unsettle the Markets?

By: Mr.Timothy D. Lane,Hossein Samiei

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Does Public Disagreementon Monetary Policy Unsettle the Markets?

By: Mr.Timothy D. Lane,Hossein Samiei

Publication of minutes of monthly monetary policy meetings between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England was a conspicuous feature of the United Kingdom’s inflation targeting framework from 1994 through April 1997. It was intended to reinforce credibility by publicizing the criteria on which policy was decided. On some occasions, however, these minutes revealed disagreement between the participants. This paper examines whether such disagreement unsettled the markets and detracted from credibility.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451848382

ISBN 13

9781451848380

Real Estate Price Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Expectations in the United States and Japan

By: Mr.Garry J. Schinasi,Hossein Samiei

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Real Estate Price Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Expectations in the United States and Japan

By: Mr.Garry J. Schinasi,Hossein Samiei

During the mid- to late 1980s, inflationary pressures were highly concentrated in asset markets in many industrial countries. This paper discusses why this may have occurred and then develops a forward-looking supply and demand model of the real estate market in which equilibrium prices depend on price expectations, monetary conditions, income, returns to alternative assets, and construction costs. In this model, the current equilibrium price is determined by expectations formed in different time periods by consumers and producers. The model and its more generalized dynamic specifications are estimated by maximum-likelihood methods. The empirical results do not reject the view that the relationship between real estate values and monetary policy was altered in 1980s.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451925557

ISBN 13

9781451925555

Exchange Rate Fluctuations and U.K. Manufacturing Exports

By: Hossein Samiei

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Exchange Rate Fluctuations and U.K. Manufacturing Exports

By: Hossein Samiei

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451932685

ISBN 13

9781451932683

An Extended Scenario and Adjustment Model for Developing Countries

By: Ms.Sheila Bassett,Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar,Hossein Samiei

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An Extended Scenario and Adjustment Model for Developing Countries

By: Ms.Sheila Bassett,Mr.Manmohan S. Kumar,Hossein Samiei

This paper discusses three important extensions to the developing country scenario and adjustment model used in the World Economic Outlook exercises. First, the model is augmented to include fiscal and monetary sectors and now explicitly captures links among government policy, investment, output and inflation. Second, the external sector is modified to allow domestic demand factors to influence imports, as well as allowing flexibility in the financing of imports. Third, the model system is extended to the group of net-creditor countries, and for the oil exporters within this group, oil exports are modeled separately. The revised model is estimated for each of the 95 developing countries and parameter estimates for each of the main equations are presented. The paper also reports the results of four simulation exercises to illustrate how the new model system may be used to quantify the effects of changes in domestic policies and in the external environment.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451849389

ISBN 13

9781451849387

Hysteresis in Exports

By: Giorgia Giovannetti,Hossein Samiei

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Hysteresis in Exports

By: Giorgia Giovannetti,Hossein Samiei

This paper presents an empirical examination of the importance of hysteresis in international trade. An econometric model of export determination is developed where the presence of sunk costs causes discontinuous behavior and hysteresis so that individual exporters’ decision to stay in or out of the market depends on the current value of the exchange rate as well as its past history. The aggregate level of exports is then determined by the proportion of exporters that stay in the market. The resulting non-linear model is estimated using data on manufacturing exports for the United States, Germany, and Japan. The paper finds strong evidence in favor of the presence of pricing-to-market and hysteresis only in the case of Japanese exports.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

145184719X

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9781451847192

Central Bank Independence and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom

By: Mr.Jan Kees Martijn,Hossein Samiei

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Central Bank Independence and the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom

By: Mr.Jan Kees Martijn,Hossein Samiei

The U.K. monetary policy framework, which combines inflation targeting with operational independence, provides a suitable arrangement for focused and credible monetary policy. However, potential weaknesses could result from features that have not yet been fully tested: the credibility and transparency of the inflation forecasts, which form the core of policy decisions, have diminished as a result of independence; and the framework could encourage excessive activism and frequent changes in interest rates. Although policy coordination could also suffer from independence, the new partly rules-based fiscal and monetary regimes will promote overall macroeconomic stability.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

145185840X

ISBN 13

9781451858402

Have North-South Growth Linkages Changed?

By: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister,Hossein Samiei,Mahmood Pradhan

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Have North-South Growth Linkages Changed?

By: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister,Hossein Samiei,Mahmood Pradhan

This paper provides preliminary econometric evidence suggesting that the traditional trade-based business cycle linkages between the North and the South have changed. Many countries in the South, in particular in Asia, appear to have become more resilient to cyclical movements in the North, and to have come to play a more significant role in sustaining global activity, in particular during the 1991-93 slowdown. A number of factors may have contributed to these changes: improved domestic policies and more open trade and exchange regimes; closer financial linkages with the North and a substantial increase in capital flows; a marked rise in inter-regional trade; and greater diversification of the exports of the South.

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