A multitude of complex systems and actors pursuing their own agenda shape the dynamics of our world. Better understanding of their actions and interactions is crucial, and can be achieved by a profound knowledge of systems and their properties, and their representation in models allowing simulation of probable behavior. Drawing on his extensive research and teaching experience in modeling and simulation of a wide range of systems - from engineering to social systems and ecosystems - the author presents the fundamental concepts and approaches for understanding and modeling the complex systems shaping the dynamics of our world. The book applies state space analysis and system dynamics to deal with the dynamic processes of "causal systems," discusses information processing approaches for modeling decision processes of "actors" and "agents," and uses aspects of the coevolutionary development of systems in their environment to deal with normative orientation, ethics, and evaluation of policies and long-term development. The concepts are applied in particular to the issue of sustainable development of human society in an evolving world. The book is complemented by a survey of system topics and of models from many fields, and by an extensive bibliography on the many systems-related subjects covered. Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields. Bossel is author of a System Zoo containing over one hundred simulation models of diverse systems.
About the book: Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 3 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of economic and social systems and global development, among them: production, stocks and orders, marketing and consumption, competition, life planning, employment, ecotax, escalation, dependence, aggression, population and community development, debt crisis, globalization, the world models of the Club of Rome (by Forrester and the Meadows group) and examples of nonnumerical knowledge processing applied to impact assessment and decision processes. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary systems, and of systems from the fields of physics and engineering. Volume 2 of the System Zoo presents simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources. About the author: Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
About the book: Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary processes, and of complex systems from physics and engineering, among them: exponential and logistic growth, oscillations, delays, and storage; phenomena of infection, transition, and overload; complex systems with limit cycles, multiple equilibrium points and chaotic attractors; and applications from control engineering, flight dynamics, fluid flow and heat conduction. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 2 of the System Zoo contains simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources. Volume 3 deals with systems and processes found in economy and society, and with long-term global development. About the author: Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
Models and simulations of all kinds are tools for dealing with reality. Humans have always used mental models to better understand the world around them: to make plans, to consider different possibilities, to share ideas with others, to test changes, and to determine whether or not the development of an idea is feasible. The book Modeling and Simulation uses exactly the same approach except that the traditional mental model is translated into a computer model, and the simulations of alternative outcomes under varying conditions are programmed on the computer. The advantage of this method is that the computer can track the multitude of implications and consequences in complex relationships much more quickly and reliably than the human mind. This unique interdisciplinary text not only provides a self contained and complete guide to the methods and mathematical background of modeling and simulation software (SIMPAS) and a collection of 50 systems models on an accompanying diskette. Students from fields as diverse as ecology and economics will find this clear interactive package an instructive and engaging guide.
Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 2 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of the regional water cycle and global carbon cycle, the photosynthesis of vegetation, forest growth, the water, nutrient, and energy dynamics of agriculture, the interaction of plants, animals, and humans with other organisms and resources by predation, harvesting, and competition for nutrients, and through utilization of renewable and exploitation of nonrenewable resources. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary systems, and of systems from the fields of physics and engineering. Volume 3 deals with systems and processes found in economy and society, and with long-term global development. Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
Can we reach a future that is both environmentally and socially sustainable? Many issues characterise global developments at the end of the twentieth century: globalization of the economy, unemployment, social problems, environmental pollution, resource waste, ecological destruction. Earth at a Crossroads offers a holistic systems view of the development of human society within the natural environment on which it depends for support. The book stresses the dynamic nature of interconnected feedback processes, traces possible future paths of societal development and their impacts, determines their sustainability, and points at necessary changes. Two alternative visions of the future are presented: a Path A resulting from continuation of current trends, and a contrasting Path B that would result from adhering to principles of sustainability and protection of the natural system in the interests of future generations. This book will become an important reference in the discussion of global society's path into the next millennium.
In this publication Dr. Bossel shows that we need indicators for sustainable development that provide reliable information about the natural, physical and social world in which we we live, and on which our survival and quality of life depends. He illustrates that popular indicators like the gross domestic product are inadequate, as they inform us only about monetary flows and not about the state of the environment, the destruction of resources or the quality of life.
About the book: Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 3 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of economic and social systems and global development, among them: production, stocks and orders, marketing and consumption, competition, life planning, employment, ecotax, escalation, dependence, aggression, population and community development, debt crisis, globalization, the world models of the Club of Rome (by Forrester and the Meadows group) and examples of nonnumerical knowledge processing applied to impact assessment and decision processes. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary systems, and of systems from the fields of physics and engineering. Volume 2 of the System Zoo presents simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources. About the author: Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
Models and simulations of all kinds are tools for dealing with reality. Humans have always used mental models to better understand the world around them: to make plans, to consider different possibilities, to share ideas with others, to test changes, and to determine whether or not the development of an idea is feasible. The book Modeling and Simulation uses exactly the same approach except that the traditional mental model is translated into a computer model, and the simulations of alternative outcomes under varying conditions are programmed on the computer. The advantage of this method is that the computer can track the multitude of implications and consequences in complex relationships much more quickly and reliably than the human mind. This unique interdisciplinary text not only provides a self contained and complete guide to the methods and mathematical background of modeling and simulation software (SIMPAS) and a collection of 50 systems models on an accompanying diskette. Students from fields as diverse as ecology and economics will find this clear interactive package an instructive and engaging guide.
Can we reach a future that is both environmentally and socially sustainable? Many issues characterise global developments at the end of the twentieth century: globalization of the economy, unemployment, social problems, environmental pollution, resource waste, ecological destruction. Earth at a Crossroads offers a holistic systems view of the development of human society within the natural environment on which it depends for support. The book stresses the dynamic nature of interconnected feedback processes, traces possible future paths of societal development and their impacts, determines their sustainability, and points at necessary changes. Two alternative visions of the future are presented: a Path A resulting from continuation of current trends, and a contrasting Path B that would result from adhering to principles of sustainability and protection of the natural system in the interests of future generations. This book will become an important reference in the discussion of global society's path into the next millennium.
About the book: Mathematical modeling and computer simulation make it possible to understand and control the dynamic processes taking place in complex systems. Simulation provides insights into the often surprising diversity of possible behaviors, and allows identifying possibilities for intervention and options for alternative development. About one hundred simulation models from all areas of life are fully documented in the three volumes of the 'System Zoo'. They can be quickly implemented and easily operated using freely available system dynamics software. Volume 1 of the System Zoo contains simulation models of elementary processes, and of complex systems from physics and engineering, among them: exponential and logistic growth, oscillations, delays, and storage; phenomena of infection, transition, and overload; complex systems with limit cycles, multiple equilibrium points and chaotic attractors; and applications from control engineering, flight dynamics, fluid flow and heat conduction. The System Zoo collection of simulation models is particularly well-suited for teaching, training, and research projects at all levels from high school to university, and for individual study. Volume 2 of the System Zoo contains simulation models related to climate, vegetation, ecosystems and resources. Volume 3 deals with systems and processes found in economy and society, and with long-term global development. About the author: Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields.
A multitude of complex systems and actors pursuing their own agenda shape the dynamics of our world. Better understanding of their actions and interactions is crucial, and can be achieved by a profound knowledge of systems and their properties, and their representation in models allowing simulation of probable behavior. Drawing on his extensive research and teaching experience in modeling and simulation of a wide range of systems - from engineering to social systems and ecosystems - the author presents the fundamental concepts and approaches for understanding and modeling the complex systems shaping the dynamics of our world. The book applies state space analysis and system dynamics to deal with the dynamic processes of "causal systems," discusses information processing approaches for modeling decision processes of "actors" and "agents," and uses aspects of the coevolutionary development of systems in their environment to deal with normative orientation, ethics, and evaluation of policies and long-term development. The concepts are applied in particular to the issue of sustainable development of human society in an evolving world. The book is complemented by a survey of system topics and of models from many fields, and by an extensive bibliography on the many systems-related subjects covered. Hartmut Bossel is Professor Emeritus of environmental systems analysis. He taught for many years at the University of California in Santa Barbara and the University of Kassel, Germany, where he was director of the Center for Environmental Systems Research until his retirement. He holds an engineering degree from the Technical University of Darmstadt, and a Ph.D. degree from the University of California at Berkeley. With a background in engineering, systems science, and mathematical modeling, he has led many research projects and future studies in different countries, developing computer simulation models and decision support systems in the areas of energy supply policy, global dynamics, orientation of behavior, agricultural policy, and forest dynamics and management. He has written numerous books on modeling and simulation of dynamic systems, social change and future paths, and has published widely in the scientific literature in several fields. Bossel is author of a System Zoo containing over one hundred simulation models of diverse systems.
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