In this book I develop a theory of complexity for economics and manage ment sciences. This book is addressed to the mathematically or analytically oriented economist, psychologist or management scientist. It could also be of interest to engineers, computer scientists, biologists, physicists and ecologists who have a constant desire to go beyond the bounds of their respective disciplines. The unifying theme is: we live in a complex world, but how can we cope with complexity? If the book has made the reader curious, and if he looks at modelling, problem recognition and problem solving within his field of competence in a more "complex" way, it will have achieved its goal. The starting point is the recognition that complexity is a well-defined concept in mathematics (e.g. in topological dynamics), computer science, information theory and artificial intelligence. But it is a rather diffuse concept in other fields, sometimes it has only descriptive value or even worse, it is only used in a colloquial sense. The systematic investigation of complexity phenomena has reached a mature status within computer science. Indices of computer size, capacity and performance root ultimately in John von Neumann's paradigmatic model of a machine, though other 1 roots point to McCulloch and Pitts, not to forget Alan Turing. Offsprings of this development include: -complexity of formal systems and recursiveness; -cellular automata and the theory of self-reproducing machines; -theory of program or computational complexity; -theory of sequential machines; -problem solving, cognitive science, pattern recognition and decision processes.
7. 2 Cumulative Pollutants and the Rate of Economic Growth 217 7. 3 Economic Growth in an Unregulated Economy 223 7. 4 Economic Growth in a Degrading Economy 231 7. 5 Economic Growth in the Spaceship Economy 237 7. 6 Dynamic Equilibrium in the Spaceship Economy 248 7. 7 An Evaluation of the Model and some Conclusions 254 7. 8 Some Long-Term Implications of the Model 256 References 258 Chapter 8: Optimal Economic Growth when CO Constraints are Critical 2 8. 1 Introduction 259 8. 2 Formulation of the Problem 260 8. 3 Derivation of the Necessary Conditions 264 8. 4 Analysis of the Necessary Conditions 265 8. 5 Conclusion 277 References 279 Chapter 9: Uncertainty. Value of Information and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 9. 1 Introduction 280 9. 2 An Illustrative Example - Evaluating a Climate Research and Monitoring Programme 282 293 9. 3 The Value of Information in a Stochastic Dynamic Programme 301 9. 4 Optimal Policies in a Stochastic Dynamic Programme 307 9. 5 Resource Costs and Critical Probabilities 9. 6 Conclusions 314 317 References 319 Epilogue 325 Index viii Preface The movement of carbon from sources to final disposition is known as the carbon cycle. The largest reservoir of carbon is in carbonate sediments such as limestone and chalk. Other significant but less stable reservoirs include fossil fuels, living and dead plants and animals, carbonates and bicarbonates dissolved in the ocean.
7. 2 Cumulative Pollutants and the Rate of Economic Growth 217 7. 3 Economic Growth in an Unregulated Economy 223 7. 4 Economic Growth in a Degrading Economy 231 7. 5 Economic Growth in the Spaceship Economy 237 7. 6 Dynamic Equilibrium in the Spaceship Economy 248 7. 7 An Evaluation of the Model and some Conclusions 254 7. 8 Some Long-Term Implications of the Model 256 References 258 Chapter 8: Optimal Economic Growth when CO Constraints are Critical 2 8. 1 Introduction 259 8. 2 Formulation of the Problem 260 8. 3 Derivation of the Necessary Conditions 264 8. 4 Analysis of the Necessary Conditions 265 8. 5 Conclusion 277 References 279 Chapter 9: Uncertainty. Value of Information and Greenhouse Gas Emissions 9. 1 Introduction 280 9. 2 An Illustrative Example - Evaluating a Climate Research and Monitoring Programme 282 293 9. 3 The Value of Information in a Stochastic Dynamic Programme 301 9. 4 Optimal Policies in a Stochastic Dynamic Programme 307 9. 5 Resource Costs and Critical Probabilities 9. 6 Conclusions 314 317 References 319 Epilogue 325 Index viii Preface The movement of carbon from sources to final disposition is known as the carbon cycle. The largest reservoir of carbon is in carbonate sediments such as limestone and chalk. Other significant but less stable reservoirs include fossil fuels, living and dead plants and animals, carbonates and bicarbonates dissolved in the ocean.
In this book I develop a theory of complexity for economics and manage ment sciences. This book is addressed to the mathematically or analytically oriented economist, psychologist or management scientist. It could also be of interest to engineers, computer scientists, biologists, physicists and ecologists who have a constant desire to go beyond the bounds of their respective disciplines. The unifying theme is: we live in a complex world, but how can we cope with complexity? If the book has made the reader curious, and if he looks at modelling, problem recognition and problem solving within his field of competence in a more "complex" way, it will have achieved its goal. The starting point is the recognition that complexity is a well-defined concept in mathematics (e.g. in topological dynamics), computer science, information theory and artificial intelligence. But it is a rather diffuse concept in other fields, sometimes it has only descriptive value or even worse, it is only used in a colloquial sense. The systematic investigation of complexity phenomena has reached a mature status within computer science. Indices of computer size, capacity and performance root ultimately in John von Neumann's paradigmatic model of a machine, though other 1 roots point to McCulloch and Pitts, not to forget Alan Turing. Offsprings of this development include: -complexity of formal systems and recursiveness; -cellular automata and the theory of self-reproducing machines; -theory of program or computational complexity; -theory of sequential machines; -problem solving, cognitive science, pattern recognition and decision processes.
Who, in 1945 and 1946, could have foreseen that the economic and social integration of the millions of Germans from the East expelled into West Germany after Wodd War II would largely be accomplished in a few years? And, who could have foreseen that many years after this accomplishment the political repercussions of the expulsions would go on? Yet, surprisingly enough, this is what has happened. In 1969, as usual, the major issues of the federal election campaign in West Germany hardly reflect any specific economic and social concerns of the expellees, not even those bruited about by the NPD (N ationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands). At the same time, how ever, all the political parties vying in the campaign, with the exception of the newly founded, less influentialDKP (the new German Commu nist Party), pay considerable deference to the political interests of the expellees in the German question. Whether these interests represent the opinion of most of the expellees and whether the expellee associ ations in fact speak for many voters is another matter. Why are these questions rarely posed? Why, despite the economic and social integration of the expellees, do the East German Home land Provincial Societies - the Landsmannschaften - retain much influence? The explanation of this phenomenon becomes increasingly clear if one reads the intelligent and superbly documented analysis by Hans Schoenberg.
In little more than two centuries Prussia rose from medieval obscurity and the devastation of the Thirty Years War to become the dominant power of continental Europe. Her rulers rose from Electors to Kings, and from Kings to Emperors. It is a dramatic story, and H. W. Koch fills a major gap in English-language literature with this comprehensive account. It traces the origins and rise of the Prussian state from the thirteenth century to the causes and consequences of its incorporation into the German Empire.
The question of how far mathematical methods of reasoning and inves tigation are applicable in economic theorising has long been a matter of debate. The first part of this question needing to be answered was whether, outside the range of ordinary statistical methods, such application is in fact possible. In my opinion the controversy on this point has been a fruitful one, which has led, as might have been expected, to an affirmative answer. What, however, has not yet been decided - for the simple reason that hitherto it has not been investigated - is whether the application of mathematical methods to our science is expedient. From the point of view of economic methodology this seems to me the more important part of the question, although the only considerations hitherto brought to bear upon it have been of a rather general character, based on uncer tain ideas which have led to uncertain conclusions. That is why I welcome this attempt of Dr. Heinz W. Brand to bring the solution nearer by his present work. The conclusion he reaches here is that mathematical methods cannot unreservedly be employed in our science. The arguments which he carefully weighs, in the course of a criticism which is never destructive, are centred on his own criterion of asking whether it is not merely possible, but at the same time profitable, to apply mathematics in economic science.
PULITZER PRIZE FINALIST • Benjamin Franklin, perhaps the pivotal figure in colonial and revolutionary America, comes vividly to life in this “thorough biography of ... America’s first Renaissance man” (The Washington Post) by the two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, bestselling historian, and author of Our First Civil War. "The authoritative Franklin biography for our time.” —Joseph J. Ellis, author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning Founding Brothers Wit, diplomat, scientist, philosopher, businessman, inventor, and bon vivant, Benjamin Franklin's "life is one every American should know well, and it has not been told better than by Mr. Brands" (The Dallas Morning News). From penniless runaway to highly successful printer, from ardently loyal subject of Britain to architect of an alliance with France that ensured America’s independence, Franklin went from obscurity to become one of the world’s most admired figures, whose circle included the likes of Voltaire, Hume, Burke, and Kant. Drawing on previously unpublished letters and a host of other sources, acclaimed historian H. W. Brands has written a thoroughly engaging biography of the eighteenth-century genius. A much needed reminder of Franklin’s greatness and humanity, The First American is a work of meticulous scholarship that provides a magnificent tour of a legendary historical figure, a vital era in American life, and the countless arenas in which the protean Franklin left his legacy. Look for H.W. Brands's other biographies: ANDREW JACKSON, THE MAN WHO SAVED THE UNION (Ulysses S. Grant), TRAITOR TO HIS CLASS (Franklin Roosevelt) and REAGAN.
H. W. Koch, himself a former Hitler Youth brings a unique sensitivity and perspective to the history of one of the most fascinating vehicles for Nazi thought and propaganda. He traces the Hitler Youth movement from its antecedents in nineteenth-century German romanticism and pre-1914 youth culture, through the World War I radicaliztion of German youth, to its ultimate exploitation by the Nazi party.
This volume contains contributions illuminating much of the current research occurring in the area of visual perception. It encompasses all aspects of vision and its relationship to vehicle design, including both the internal and external design of the vehicle as well as the perceptual and cognitive limitations of the vehicle controller. Issues specifically related to the vision of the driver are initially addressed and the problems of vehicle glazing and light transmission are considered. The major topics of visual perception and vehicle control are covered in three related chapters encompassing: collision avoidance, vehicle signalling systems and the acquisition of visual information. Moving on to the external environment and its relationship to vision, traffic signs are discussed. Approaches to the measurement and modelling of driver behaviour are dealt with and the area of telerobotic control of vehicles is considered. In-vehicle displays are covered in two related chapters addressing issues of visual workload and effects of display type. It is hoped that the book, contributed to by experts from a diverse range of disciplines, including optometrists, psychologists, physiologists, human factors specialists and engineers, will stimulate the progression of research in this area, as effectively as the preceding volumes did.
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.