Guillermo Beylis's Books

Wired

Digital Connectivity for Inclusion and Growth

By: Guillermo Beylis,William Maloney,Guillermo Vuletin,Jorge Andres Zambrano Riveros

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Wired

Digital Connectivity for Inclusion and Growth

By: Guillermo Beylis,William Maloney,Guillermo Vuletin,Jorge Andres Zambrano Riveros

Latin America and the Caribbean continues to face adverse global headwinds: high interest rates, modest G-7 growth, soft commodity prices and uncertain prospects in China will all depress growth. Well-grounded policy responses have led to largely recovering employment and income losses from the pandemic and falling rates of inflation. However, the region faces the mutually reinforcing triple challenges of low growth, limited fiscal space, and citizen dissatisfaction. Expanding digital connectivity offers a possibility to make progress on all three fronts. To maximize the social benefits of connectivity as well as to ensure that it does not exacerbate spatial, educational, gender or racial inequalities, three challenges are important to address: first, expanding coverage to the remaining unconnected areas as well as improving the quality of service; second, increasing the productive use of existing infrastructure, and; third, as with any other infrastructure "hardware," investments in "software" - such as digital and traditional skills, managerial capabilities, supportive regulatory frameworks, and deeper financial markets are critical.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464820384

ISBN 13

9781464820380

Going Viral

COVID-19 and the Accelerated Transformation of Jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Guillermo Beylis,Roberto Fattal Jaef,Rishabh Sinha,Michael Morris

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Going Viral

COVID-19 and the Accelerated Transformation of Jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Guillermo Beylis,Roberto Fattal Jaef,Rishabh Sinha,Michael Morris

COVID-19 started as a health emergency, but it is rapidly evolving into an employment crisis. There is still uncertainty on how severe the economic impact of the pandemic will be. As things go, however, the drag on the region’s employment could last longer than the epidemic itself. Beyond the immediate impacts on the level of employment, the crisis is deepening and accelerating the transformation of jobs, bringing the future closer. Going Viral: COVID-19 and the Accelerated Transformation of Jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean focuses on recent trends in the economies of the region that have been significantly changing the labor market: premature deindustrialization, the servicification of the economy, and the changing skill requirements of jobs as automation advances. The findings of this report have important implications for economic policy. Some of these implications are related to the productivity challenges that Latin America and the Caribbean was already facing after the end of the “Golden Decade†? in 2013. Other policy implications see their relevance enhanced by the COVID-19 crisis. As sectors are impacted in different ways, as new technologies are developed and adopted, and as working remotely becomes more common, governments need to respond in ways that support a smooth transformation of jobs—one that is socially acceptable and that contributes to productivity growth, including investing in the human capital of the workforce. The accelerated transformation of jobs also calls for a rethinking of labor regulations and social protection policies. The institutional architecture geared to wage earners in the formal sector is quickly becoming outdated. The report calls for the flexible regulation of the emerging forms of work, in a way that encourages employment and supports formalization, thereby expanding the coverage of social protection. to larger segments

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190

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World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464814600

ISBN 13

9781464814600

Energy Pricing Policies for Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Guillermo Beylis,Barbara Cunha

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Energy Pricing Policies for Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Guillermo Beylis,Barbara Cunha

Government strategies for setting energy prices are not uniform across the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region—or even across fuels. Instead, they cover a full spectrum, ranging from discretionary price-fixing at one end to pure market-based approaches at the other. In between is a wide variety of other schemes such as price stabilization funds, import or export parity pricing, price smoothing through tax levels, and targeted direct price subsidies or vouchers. Governments in the LAC region, however, tend to be small as measured by government revenues as a percentage of GDP. So their limited government resources have to be used wisely and be better targeted to the poor and vulnerable. Although energy subsidies are an inefficient policy tool for protecting the welfare of the poor, energy price increases can have a big impact on these households. Energy Pricing Policies for Inclusive Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean finds that energy subsidies are highly regressive in an absolute sense—that is, the lion’s share of every dollar spent on keeping energy prices low benefits wealthier households. However, subsidies for fuels that are widely used for cooking and heating—liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), natural gas, and kerosene—as well as for electricity, can be relatively neutral or progressive, implying that lower-income households capture benefits that are proportionate to their expenditures. In other words, although poorer households receive very little from every dollar spent on energy subsidies, that small amount may represent an important share of their expenditures. It is important, then, that governments expand the coverage and depth of their social safety nets to provide relief for poor households if energy prices rise. This report also finds that aggregate price impacts and the competitiveness effects of energy price increases are moderate to small and can be smoothed out through macropolicy responses.

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317

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World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464811121

ISBN 13

9781464811128

The Promise of Integration

Opportunities in a Changing Global Economy

By: Guillermo Beylis,Elena lanchovichina,William Maloney,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Guillermo Vuletin

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The Promise of Integration

Opportunities in a Changing Global Economy

By: Guillermo Beylis,Elena lanchovichina,William Maloney,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Guillermo Vuletin

The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region has proved to be relatively resilient in the face of increased debt stress, stubborn inflation, and uncertainty arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Income and employment have largely recovered from the pandemic, poverty has receded, and markets remain guardedly optimistic about the near future. However, global uncertainty is rising, including a recent wave of bank failures in the US and Europe. Strengthening resilience, both on the health and macroeconomic fronts, will be paramount. Progress remains pending in both vaccination coverage and health system preparedness, while the institutionality of macroeconomic policy in some countries is being questioned. The evolution of the global economy is providing two new areas of opportunity for the region: the trend toward nearshoring-moving production closer to the US and European markets-and the imperative to combat climate change, which is giving the region a new comparative advantage in sun, wind, hydro, and natural capital. Taking advantage of these will require greater integration into the global economy. Yet, paradoxically, in the face of these opportunities. LAC is becoming less integrated. Trade intensity has largely stagnated, and foreign direct investment (FDI) to most countries has declined. Beyond the long-term structural reforms needed to reduce systemic risk, raise the level and quality of education, invest in infrastructure, and ensure well-functioning financial markets, this report calls to preserve the reputational gains of the past 20 years in terms of macro stability and streamlining regulation dealing with customs and transport to lower the cost of doing business in the region. Export promotion agencies and investment promotion agencies can also help as they have proven track records. A comprehensive approach to both shorter- and longer-term reforms could move LAC toward a renewed and more dynamic engagement with the global economy.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464819874

ISBN 13

9781464819872

LAC Semiannual Report April 2014

International Flows to Latin America – Rocking the Boat?

By: Augusto de la Torre,Guillermo Beylis,Jaime de Piniés

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LAC Semiannual Report April 2014

International Flows to Latin America – Rocking the Boat?

By: Augusto de la Torre,Guillermo Beylis,Jaime de Piniés

As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. A special focus is placed this time around on the difference between exposure and vulnerability to exogenous shocks, with the latter assessed by adjusting exposure for a country’s shock absorption policy capacity. Given the global context and associated concerns with capital flow volatility, in Chapter 2 we take a look at the comparatively more stable components of international flows: FDI and Remittances. The cyclicality and volatility, as well as the joint determinants of FDI and Remittances are reviewed.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464802866

ISBN 13

9781464802867

LAC Semiannual Report October 2014

Inequality in a Lower Growth Latin America

By: Augusto de la Torre,Guillermo Beylis,Eduardo Levy Yeyati,Tatiana Didier,Carlos Rodriguez Castelan,Sergio Schmukler

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LAC Semiannual Report October 2014

Inequality in a Lower Growth Latin America

By: Augusto de la Torre,Guillermo Beylis,Eduardo Levy Yeyati,Tatiana Didier,Carlos Rodriguez Castelan,Sergio Schmukler

As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. We document the significant slowdown in economic activity across the region, and explore the possibility of this being the ‘new normal’. In Chapter 2 we assess if the major social gains achieved during the ‘Golden Decade’, in particular the decline in inequality, will hold in this less supportive environment, and discuss alternative policy responses to preserve and further the equity gains in the region.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

146480429X

ISBN 13

9781464804298

Efecto Viral

COVID-19 y la transformación acelerada del empleo en América Latina y el Caribe

By: Guillermo Beylis,Roberto Fattal Jaef,Michael Morris,Ashwini Rekha Sebastian

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Efecto Viral

COVID-19 y la transformación acelerada del empleo en América Latina y el Caribe

By: Guillermo Beylis,Roberto Fattal Jaef,Michael Morris,Ashwini Rekha Sebastian

La COVID-19 comenzó como una emergencia sanitaria, pero está evolucionando rápidamente hacia una crisis del empleo. Todavía existe incertidumbre sobre la gravedad del impacto económico de la pandemia. Sin embargo, el lastre para el empleo en la región podría prolongarse más que la propia pandemia. Más allá del impacto inmediato sobre el nivel de empleo, la crisis está profundizando y acelerando la transformación del empleo, anticipando el futuro. Efecto viral: COVID-19 y la transformación acelerada del empleo en América Latina y el Caribe se enfoca en las tendencias subyacentes que han estado cambiando significativamente el mercado laboral en la región: la desindustrialización prematura, la servicificación de la economía y los cambios en las habilidades requeridas en los empleos a medida que avanza la automatización. Las conclusiones de este informe tienen varias implicancias importantes para la política económica. Algunas de estas implicancias están relacionadas con los desafíos de productividad a los que ya se enfrentaba América Latina y el Caribe después del final de la Década Dorada en 2013. Otras implicancias políticas podrían comenzar a ganar relevancia por la crisis de COVID-19. A medida que los sectores se ven afectados de diferentes maneras y el trabajo a distancia se vuelve más común, los Gobiernos deben responder con medidas que apoyen una transformación fluida de los puestos de trabajo, que sean socialmente aceptables y que contribuyan al crecimiento de la productividad, incluida la inversion en el capital humano de la fuerza de trabajo. La transformación acelerada de los puestos de trabajo exige un nuevo planteamiento de la normativa laboral y las políticas de protección social. Los países de América Latina y el Caribe desarrollaron una arquitectura institucional orientada a los trabajadores asalariados del sector formal, que rápidamente se está volviendo anticuada. El informe, por ende, refiere a una agenda política que se ocupe de la regulación flexible de las formas emergentes de trabajo de manera que incentive el empleo y apoye la formalización, ampliando así la cobertura de la protección social a segmentos más amplios de la población.

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224

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World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464816425

ISBN 13

9781464816420

From Known Unknowns to Black Swans

How to Manage Risk in Latin America and theCaribbean

By: Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton

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From Known Unknowns to Black Swans

How to Manage Risk in Latin America and theCaribbean

By: Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton

After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464813736

ISBN 13

9781464813733

Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean

When Dreams Meet Reality

By: Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Jorge Pablo Puig,José Andrée Camarena,Luciana Galeano,Luis Morano,Lucila Venturi

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Effects of the Business Cycle on Social Indicators in Latin America and the Caribbean

When Dreams Meet Reality

By: Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton,Jorge Pablo Puig,José Andrée Camarena,Luciana Galeano,Luis Morano,Lucila Venturi

After mediocre growth in 2018 of 0.7 percent. LAC is expected to perform only marginally better in 2019 (growth of 0.9 percent) followed by a much more solid growth of 2.1 percent in 2020. LAC will face both internal and external challenges during 2019. On the domestic front. the recession in Argentina; a slower than expected recovery in Brazil from the 2014-2015 recession, anemic growth in Mexico. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. present the biggest challenges. On the external front. the sharp drop in net capital inflows to the region since early 2018 and the monetary policy normalization in the United States stand among the greatest perils. Furthermore, the recent increase in poverty in Brazil because of the recession points to the large effects that the business cycle may have on poverty. The core of this report argues that social indicators that are very sensitive to the business cycle may yield a highly misleading picture of permanent social gains in the region.

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World Bank Publications

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ISBN 10

1464814139

ISBN 13

9781464814136

LAC Semiannual Report October 2015

Jobs, Wages and the Latin American Slowdown

By: Alain Ize,Guillermo Beylis,Augusto de la Torre,Daniel Lederman

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LAC Semiannual Report October 2015

Jobs, Wages and the Latin American Slowdown

By: Alain Ize,Guillermo Beylis,Augusto de la Torre,Daniel Lederman

Chapter 1 of the report covers the short-term prospects and provides an analysis of the external factors affecting the region's economic slowdown. The focus is on the adjustment challenges faced by those Latin American countries experiencing a major adverse terms of trade shock, which comes after an unprecedented (in magnitude and duration) period of terms of trade bonanza. Chapter 2 discusses the key topic of this semiannual report, that is, the implications of the slowdown for labor markets on jobs and wages. We describe the broad labor market trends observed during the boom and contrast them with the patterns observed during the slowdown. We also describe the implications of the slowdown for inequality. A corollary of the observed labor market patterns during the slowdown is that some of the gains towards greater income equality achieved in the past decade or so may be reversed, at least in part, and that we may see a divergence between labor income inequality and household income inequality, whereby the latter may rise more than the former.--Résumé de l'éditeur.

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