Scenario Planning Managing for the Future Gill Ringland "Nobody can ignore the future. This book is a must-read for any manager aspiring to put scenarios into practice." Arie De Geus, Former Director of Shell International Petroleum and author of The Living Company "Never since the great geographical expansions of the eighteenth century has so much latent potential been met with tools so ill-fitted to harness it. Information technology will change how, where, when we work. Scenario Planning offers us a mechanism by which to bring structure to this and other forms of complexity; offering us the vital ability to understand the dynamics of change." Oliver Sparrow, Chatham House Forum Business today operates in a world of major change. Economies, commerce and lifestyles are constantly shifting but it is the information revolution which will prove the most radical since its agricultural and industrial counterparts. It cannot be constrained by borders but is simultaneously reaching across the world. In this environment, the techniques for planning business over the past decades are no longer sufficient. Forecasts based on current trends, or estimates of growth based on history are in danger of becoming obsolete all too quickly. The idea in the early days of mainframe computers that 'every major country will need one' demonstrates how uncertain the future can really be. The scenario planning techniques described in this book will enable anyone to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Key features are: * detailed 'how to' look for early indicators of directions, and identify possible courses of action for those new to scenarios. * extensive case studies, including ICL, British Airways and United Distillers. * includes 'do' as well as 'do not' examples to aid practitioners; tells you what works when and why. * takes a conceptual, rather than a mathematical approach. The overall message of this book is that scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but they are powerful weapons in managing the uncertainties of the future. Jacket illustration by Nick Orsborne
You've chosen this book. Which probably means you're a marketer, you've heard of scenarios and you want to know what they can do for you. Can they help with everyday marketing issues like brands, channels and relationships? The answer is yes. Rooted in customer needs, scenarios bridge the gap between corporate strategy and marketing tactics. They are a weapon for perceiving the unseen and a framework for thinking the unthinkable. This book's wealth of case studies will show you how they've helped top companies like Pfizer, Nestle and Courvoisier to do just that, and its practical lessons will show how they can do exactly the same for you. Gill Ringland and Laurie Young have gathered top-flight contributors to offer the first straightforward account of scenario planning for marketers. In readable chapters they show how, by integrating scenarios into the wider marketing toolkit, you can make your organization more customer-driven and consider a wider range of possibilities than your competitors. They explore how scenarios have driven creativity in a range of consumer marketing applications - even in FMCG sectors - and define their role in distribution, channel management, brand management and customer management strategy. Finally, they show how marketing scenarios can help to promote wider corporate innovation. The rich pictures painted by scenarios have made business strategy more visionary and creative, and they're set to do the same with marketing strategy. Read this book, and make sure it's your organization holding the brush.
If you want to know how countries, companies and individuals can master the winds and the waves that will dominate the next decade, this is the book for you." —Rupert Pennant-Rea, former editor of the Economist, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England "'If leading your organisation sometimes feels like changing the front wheel of a bicycle whilst toy are still pedalling it as fast as you can, this is a book you should read." —Sir David Brown, former Chairman, Motorola UK "Beyond Crisis is full of compelling reasons, clear advice and practical models to help almost any enterprise remain viable beyond the deeply unsettling systemic failures that characterise today's business environment." —Professor Richard David Hames, Dhurakilpundit University, Founding Director Asian Foresight Institute "We are in uncharted territory. There are few people who any longer think that the world post-crisis will be anything like the world before. Ringland, Sparrow & Lusting provide a clear description of the way that leaders need to think in this new reality. In doing so, they give us hope." —Estelle Clark, Business Assurance Director, Lloyds Register The next decade will present organisational challenges on an unprecedented scale. Beyond Crisis shows how you can build a 'purposefully self-renewing organisation' which will survive and succeed in the midst of this chaos. The book shows how financial and economic crisis has blighted organisations in every sector, and then provide a range of tools and future scenarios for diagnosing problems and creating solutions. This is a welcome dose of clarity in uncertain times.
New Shoots: people making choices in a changing world The world is changing, and many of our old certainties no longer hold. People find it hard to make sense of these changes. This book describes the forces for change and what could disrupt them. You can learn from people with fresh ideas through interviews and through snapshots of people and communities making fresh choices in a changing world. There are three reasons to read the book: It will help you to be better informed so that you will be able to better manage uncertainty. This will improve the quality of your decisions both for today and for the future; It will extend your imagination - like science fiction does - helping you to envisage positive futures in the middle of the current doom and gloom; It will help you to challenge your (and others') assumptions about people and our planet - based on evidence that may surprise you. New Shoots is based on evidence gathered through the authors' research and global consultancy over the last decade. It builds upon their previous books including Scenario Planning, Beyond Crisis, Strategic Foresight and Megatrends to 2032.
Behind the headlines, things are happening—remorselessly and inexorably. They will have more impact on the world than the passing news in today’s headlines. The new global environment will be very different. Are you prepared? How will you, your family, and your business cope? Today’s world is very noisy. How do you filter out what is important? How do you make sense of the future? What do you need to think about? This book explores the world as it could be in 2032—and the implications for you and your organisation. It investigates the twelve key megatrends that are changing in the world. For each one, the book discusses the impact, why it is important, how we got here, what could accelerate or slow this trend, and what individuals and organisations can do to survive and thrive in the new world of 2032. The contributors here are professionals in thinking about the future. They have worked with many high-profile organisations, have held senior line roles in major corporations and understand the needs of both decision makers and ordinary people.
Here be Dragons was written in response to requests from readers of Beyond Crisis (John Wiley, 2010), which introduced the "Cycle of Renewal." Readers wanted to know what the Cycle of Renewal looked like "on the ground"; how would you get started? How would you decide which tools to use? Who would do the work? What would it look like on a daily basis? And, most importantly, what impact would you see on business performance? Here be Dragons addresses these questions in two ways. The first, The Columbus Project, describes the journey taken by a fictional organisation (FutureParts Vehicle Supplies) which was set the challenge of renewing itself. The staff of FutureParts are entirely fictional, but they represent some of the characters and organisational structures that form the context for change in many organisations. The story illustrates some of the common hurdles and tools, so that business leaders may recognise some of the characteristics of what works and what does not as they spearhead organisational change. The second part of the book is a Pilot's Guide to the tools which the Columbus Project used to help the business renew itself. The tools are designed to enhance the ability to think long term while being effective in the short term - balancing the paradoxes leaders face on a daily basis. Both parts focus pragmatically on why each tool should be used, when and how they should be used, together with the results to expect and how each fits into the Cycle of Renewal.
Behind the headlines, things are happening—remorselessly and inexorably. They will have more impact on the world than the passing news in today’s headlines. The new global environment will be very different. Are you prepared? How will you, your family, and your business cope? Today’s world is very noisy. How do you filter out what is important? How do you make sense of the future? What do you need to think about? This book explores the world as it could be in 2032—and the implications for you and your organisation. It investigates the twelve key megatrends that are changing in the world. For each one, the book discusses the impact, why it is important, how we got here, what could accelerate or slow this trend, and what individuals and organisations can do to survive and thrive in the new world of 2032. The contributors here are professionals in thinking about the future. They have worked with many high-profile organisations, have held senior line roles in major corporations and understand the needs of both decision makers and ordinary people.
You've chosen this book. Which probably means you're a marketer, you've heard of scenarios and you want to know what they can do for you. Can they help with everyday marketing issues like brands, channels and relationships? The answer is yes. Rooted in customer needs, scenarios bridge the gap between corporate strategy and marketing tactics. They are a weapon for perceiving the unseen and a framework for thinking the unthinkable. This book's wealth of case studies will show you how they've helped top companies like Pfizer, Nestle and Courvoisier to do just that, and its practical lessons will show how they can do exactly the same for you. Gill Ringland and Laurie Young have gathered top-flight contributors to offer the first straightforward account of scenario planning for marketers. In readable chapters they show how, by integrating scenarios into the wider marketing toolkit, you can make your organization more customer-driven and consider a wider range of possibilities than your competitors. They explore how scenarios have driven creativity in a range of consumer marketing applications - even in FMCG sectors - and define their role in distribution, channel management, brand management and customer management strategy. Finally, they show how marketing scenarios can help to promote wider corporate innovation. The rich pictures painted by scenarios have made business strategy more visionary and creative, and they're set to do the same with marketing strategy. Read this book, and make sure it's your organization holding the brush.
If you want to know how countries, companies and individuals can master the winds and the waves that will dominate the next decade, this is the book for you." —Rupert Pennant-Rea, former editor of the Economist, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England "'If leading your organisation sometimes feels like changing the front wheel of a bicycle whilst toy are still pedalling it as fast as you can, this is a book you should read." —Sir David Brown, former Chairman, Motorola UK "Beyond Crisis is full of compelling reasons, clear advice and practical models to help almost any enterprise remain viable beyond the deeply unsettling systemic failures that characterise today's business environment." —Professor Richard David Hames, Dhurakilpundit University, Founding Director Asian Foresight Institute "We are in uncharted territory. There are few people who any longer think that the world post-crisis will be anything like the world before. Ringland, Sparrow & Lusting provide a clear description of the way that leaders need to think in this new reality. In doing so, they give us hope." —Estelle Clark, Business Assurance Director, Lloyds Register The next decade will present organisational challenges on an unprecedented scale. Beyond Crisis shows how you can build a 'purposefully self-renewing organisation' which will survive and succeed in the midst of this chaos. The book shows how financial and economic crisis has blighted organisations in every sector, and then provide a range of tools and future scenarios for diagnosing problems and creating solutions. This is a welcome dose of clarity in uncertain times.
The Second Edition of Leading Organizations offers an expanded focus on the fluid roles of leaders and participants (followers) and their mutual responsibility for organizational leadership. Like the first edition, this text contains chapters on implementing the organization's mission, structure, culture and strategy written by leading scholars in the fieild. New features include: - Strategic leadership - Virtual leadership - Leadership, organizational change, and conflict - Building a culture of leadership
Principles of Forensic Pathology: From Investigation to Certification offers a conceptual framework and foundational approach to a forensic practice grounded by evidence-based and mechanistic thinking. This book uses a systematic approach to address, explain, and guide the reader through diverse topics relevant to forensic pathologists and medicolegal death investigators. Nineteen chapters provide a comprehensive overview of the field of forensic pathology and discusses central topics such as scene investigation, the pathophysiology of death, death certification, the forensic autopsy, forensic imaging, pediatric forensic pathology, the importance of context, and approaches to frequently encountered medicolegal death circumstances, with mental checklists and suggestions for a consistent and considered approach. Written by forensic professionals, this book is a practical, yet comprehensive compendium for practicing forensic pathologists, coroners, medicolegal death investigators, forensic pathology fellows, pathology residents, medical students interested in forensic pathology, lawyers, and law enforcement professionals. Presents a primary text that is ideal for daily forensic practice Discusses how to properly investigate and certify death in a consistent and defensible way Emphasizes best practices in the field, providing an approach that is in line with today's forensic pathologist
This textbook was designed for a first course in differential and integral calculus, and is directed toward students in engineering, the sciences, mathematics, and computer science. Its major goal is to bring students to a level of technical competence and intuitive understanding of calculus that is adequate for applying the subject to real world problems. The text contains major sections on: (1) linear functions and derivatives; (2) computing derivatives; (3) applications of derivatives; (4) integrals; and (5) infinite series. The activities contained within these chapters are designed so that students can first study the exercise set and the solutions. Next, the students are asked to make modifications to the original problem, solve it, and move on to the variations. The appendices include math tables, additional reading and exercises, solutions, and hints to the exercises. (TW)
Thank you for visiting our website. Would you like to provide feedback on how we could improve your experience?
This site does not use any third party cookies with one exception — it uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and to analyze traffic.Learn More.