A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Essays on the fortieth president and how he changed our world: “Hands down the finest compilation on Ronald Reagan that exists.” ―Robert G. Kaufman, author of In Defense of the Bush Doctrine A former Sunday school teacher and Hollywood actor, Ronald Reagan was an unlikely candidate for president, but his charisma, conviction, and leadership earned him the governorship of California—from which he launched his successful bid to become the fortieth president of the United States in 1980. Reagan’s political legacy continues to be the standard by which all conservatives are judged. In The Enduring Reagan, editor Charles W. Dunn brings together eight prominent scholars to examine the political career and legacy of Ronald Reagan. This anthology offers a bold reassessment of the Reagan years and the impact they had on the United States and the world. Includes contributions by Charles W. Dunn • Hugh Heclo • James W. Ceaser • George H. Nash • Stephen F. Knott • Paul G. Kengor • Andrew E. Busch • Steven F. Hayward • Michael Barone
This is an exhaustive study of the county from its infancy to the middle of the 19th century, with chapters on the early settlements and towns, churches, schools, businesses and industries, and sketches of the county's participation in the Indian Wars, the Revolutionary War, and the War of 1812. Genealogists will be delighted with the coverage given to such early families as: Alexander, Carroll, Van Bibber, Leslie, Hall, Churchman, Evans, Mitchell, Mauldin, Gilpin, Rudulph, Rumsey, Hyland, Defoe, Ramsay, and Hartshorne.
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