This report examines the implications of the proliferation of hypersonic missiles and possible measures to hinder it. This report first explores some of the potential strategic implications of the proliferation of hypersonic missile technology beyond the three major powers, the United States, Russia, and China. It then examines the process of such proliferation. And finally, it discusses possible means for hindering such proliferation.
An attacker's missile-borne countermeasures to ballistic missile defenses are known as penetration aids, or penaids. This research recommends export controls on penaid-related items under the Missile Technology Control Regime.
After decades of near neglect, the Air Force is embarking on a vast modernization of its portion of the nation's nuclear deterrence capabilities--but these activities face a range of challenges. This report identifies and describes means to allay these challenges, with a focus on the integrated planning and preparation for mission success across programs, and special emphasis on the challenges of operational testing and nuclear certification.
This report examines the implications of the proliferation of hypersonic missiles and possible measures to hinder it. This report first explores some of the potential strategic implications of the proliferation of hypersonic missile technology beyond the three major powers, the United States, Russia, and China. It then examines the process of such proliferation. And finally, it discusses possible means for hindering such proliferation.
An attacker's missile-borne countermeasures to ballistic missile defenses are known as penetration aids, or penaids. This research recommends export controls on penaid-related items under the Missile Technology Control Regime.
The U.S. government has taken several steps to account for the increasing likelihood that future conflicts will extend to space, including the establishment in December 2019 of the U.S. Space Force. The potential for future wars to extend to space is driving an urgent need for assessments of space mission assurance (SMA) to provide decision support. Assessments of SMA may be used as decision support for acquisition and operational decisions in the U.S. Department of Defense and intelligence community. The research described in this report was conducted in 2018 and aims to help the national security space community enhance analytic methods for assessing SMA. The authors describe decisionmaker needs for assessments of SMA, challenges for conducting assessments, the shortfalls that may result from the challenges, and options for addressing the shortfalls. The authors conducted semistructured interviews with decisionmakers to identify decisionmaker needs and shortfalls of assessments provided to them in the recent past. Semistructured interviews were also conducted with analysts to identify analytic methods available and to discuss challenges. Researchers examined a selection of models to better understand the capabilities of available analytic methods and their limitations. The research team also undertook its own assessments and modeling efforts to evaluate potential steps and innovations that could address SMA assessment shortfalls.
Resilience is the ability of a system, architecture, or organization to maintain critical capabilities during and following a threat or disruption. Assuring resilience can be a costly endeavor, and it requires innovative approaches in a financially constrained environment. Often these innovative approaches lead to modifications of non-materiel aspects of a system or organization; such aspects include emergency response planning, organizational culture or structure, and training. The impact of these modifications is challenging to quantify. This report is the result of a project that sought to identify non-materiel solutions for improving the resilience of the U.S. space enterprise and to develop an analytical approach for evaluating the impacts of the potential improvements. The authors conducted a review of industry methods for evaluating the materiel elements of space resilience and used concepts from those methods to develop a process for evaluating the non-materiel resilience of a system. The process and the tool they developed for performing resilience calculations and presenting the results — Resilience Assessment Process and Portfolio Option Reporting Tool, or RAPAPORT (available at www.rand.org/t/TL184)-- have broad applications to any organization seeking to enhance resilience"--Publisher's description.
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