The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. In the long view, history is seen as a series of events—but the course of those events is determined by individuals and their actions. During the next ten years, individual leaders will face significant transitions for their nations: the United States’ relationships with Iran and Israel will be undergoing changes, China will likely confront a major crisis, and the wars in the Islamic world will subside. Unexpected energy and technology developments will emerge, and labor shortages will begin to matter more than financial crises. Distinguished geopolitical forecaster George Friedman analyzes these events from the perspectives of the men and women leading these global changes, focusing in particular on the American president, who will require extraordinary skills to shepherd the United States through this transitional period. The Next Decade is a provocative and fascinating look at the conflicts and opportunities that lie ahead.
The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. In the long view, history is seen as a series of events—but the course of those events is determined by individuals and their actions. During the next ten years, individual leaders will face significant transitions for their nations: the United States’ relationships with Iran and Israel will be undergoing changes, China will likely confront a major crisis, and the wars in the Islamic world will subside. Unexpected energy and technology developments will emerge, and labor shortages will begin to matter more than financial crises. Distinguished geopolitical forecaster George Friedman analyzes these events from the perspectives of the men and women leading these global changes, focusing in particular on the American president, who will require extraordinary skills to shepherd the United States through this transitional period. The Next Decade is a provocative and fascinating look at the conflicts and opportunities that lie ahead.
“Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world.” —George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com.
George Friedman delivers the geopolitical story that the mainstream media has been unable to uncover — the startling truth behind America’s foreign policy and war effort in Afghanistan, Iraq, and beyond. Friedman, founder of Stratfor, one of the world’s most respected private global intelligence firms, and Geopolitical Futures, has an unmatched ability to provide clear perspective on the current geopolitical map. In America's Secret War, George Friedman identifies the United States’ most dangerous enemies, delves into presidential strategies of the last quarter century, and reveals the real reasons behind the attack of 9/11—and the Bush administration’s motivation for the war in Iraq. It describes in eye-opening detail America’s covert and overt efforts in the global war against terrorism: Not only are U.S. armies in combat on every continent, but since 9/11 the intelligence services of dozens of nations have been operating in close partnership with the CIA. Drawing on his vast information-gathering network, Friedman presents an insightful picture of today’s world that goes far beyond what is reported on television and in other news media. Al Qaeda’s war plans and how they led to 9/11 The threat of a suitcase nuclear bomb in New York and how that changed the course of the war. The deal the U.S. made with Russia and Iran which made the invasion of Afghanistan possible – and how those deals affect the United States today. How fear and suspicion of the Saudis after 9-11 tore apart the Bush-Saudi relationship and why Saudi Arabia’s closest friends in the administration became the Saudi’s worst enemies. The real reasons behind George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq and how WMD became the cover for a much deeper game. How the CIA miscalculated about Saddam Hussein’s and Iran’s real plans, leaving the U.S. bogged down in the war. How the war in Iraq began with a ruse, pretending that a “target of opportunity” attack on Saddam Hussein had presented itself. The real story about why the U.S. raises and lowers its alert status and why the United States can’t find and destroy al Qaeda. The strategic successes that are slowly leading the United States to victory America's Secret War is an unprecedented look at the new world war being waged behind-the-scenes today. It is sure to stir debate and capture headlines around the world.
A major new book by New York Times bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman (The Next 100 Years), with a bold thesis about coming events in Europe. This provocative work examines “flashpoints,” unique geopolitical hot spots where tensions have erupted throughout history, and where conflict is due to emerge again. “There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8 Ball.” —The New York Times Magazine With remarkable accuracy, George Friedman has forecasted coming trends in global politics, technology, population, and culture. In Flashpoints, Friedman focuses on Europe—the world’s cultural and power nexus for the past five hundred years . . . until now. Analyzing the most unstable, unexpected, and fascinating borderlands of Europe and Russia—and the fault lines that have existed for centuries and have been ground zero for multiple catastrophic wars—Friedman highlights, in an unprecedentedly personal way, the flashpoints that are smoldering once again. The modern-day European Union was crafted in large part to minimize built-in geopolitical tensions that historically have torn it apart. As Friedman demonstrates, with a mix of rich history and cultural analysis, that design is failing. Flashpoints narrates a living history of Europe and explains, with great clarity, its most volatile regions: the turbulent and ever-shifting land dividing the West from Russia (a vast area that currently includes Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania); the ancient borderland between France and Germany; and the Mediterranean, which gave rise to Judaism and Christianity and became a center of Islamic life. Through Friedman’s seamless narrative of townspeople and rivers and villages, a clear picture of regions and countries and history begins to emerge. Flashpoints is an engrossing analysis of modern-day Europe, its remarkable past, and the simmering fault lines that have awakened and will be pivotal in the near future. This is George Friedman’s most timely and, ultimately, riveting book.
Dick Malcolm describes a suicide in his prize winning short story which brings him to the attention of Duluth police who are investigating a suspicious suicide. Under hypnosis Dick reveals facts about the victim that lead to the arrest of the persons responsible for the suicide.
*One of Bloomberg's Best Books of the Year* The master geopolitical forecaster and New York Times bestselling author of The Next 100 Years focuses on the United States, predicting how the 2020s will bring dramatic upheaval and reshaping of American government, foreign policy, economics, and culture. In his riveting new book, noted forecaster and bestselling author George Friedman turns to the future of the United States. Examining the clear cycles through which the United States has developed, upheaved, matured, and solidified, Friedman breaks down the coming years and decades in thrilling detail. American history must be viewed in cycles—particularly, an eighty-year "institutional cycle" that has defined us (there are three such examples—the Revolutionary War/founding, the Civil War, and World War II), and a fifty-year "socio-economic cycle" that has seen the formation of the industrial classes, baby boomers, and the middle classes. These two major cycles are both converging on the late 2020s—a time in which many of these foundations will change. The United States will have to endure upheaval and possible conflict, but also, ultimately, increased strength, stability, and power in the world. Friedman's analysis is detailed and fascinating, and covers issues such as the size and scope of the federal government, the future of marriage and the social contract, shifts in corporate structures, and new cultural trends that will react to longer life expectancies. This new book is both provocative and entertaining.
Some people travel the world to sample wines, others to experience art or enjoy the climate. STRATFOR founder Dr. George Friedman ventures abroad to observe political fault lines and find where politics and geography intersect. In his 2010 visit to Turkey, Moldova, Romania, Ukraine and Poland, Dr. Friedman found a land stranded between Europe and Russia, where memories run deep and nothing is ever casual. His reflections on the journey are as personal as they are historically informed.
An essential origin story of modern society’s most influential economic doctrine. The Chicago School of economic thought has been subject to endless generalizations—and mischaracterizations—in contemporary debate. What is often portrayed as a monolithic obsession with markets is, in fact, a nuanced set of economic theories born from decades of research and debate. The Monetarists is a deeply researched history of the monetary policies—and personalities—that codified the Chicago School of monetary thought from the 1930s through the 1960s. These policies can be characterized broadly as monetarism: the belief that prices and interest rates can be kept stable by controlling the amount of money in circulation. As economist George S. Tavlas makes clear, these ideas were more than just the legacy of Milton Friedman; they were a tradition in theory brought forth by a crucible of minds and debates throughout campus. Through unprecedented mining of archival material, The Monetarists offers the first complete history of one of the twentieth century’s most formative intellectual periods and places. It promises to elevate our understanding of this doctrine and its origins for generations to come.
The American conservative movement as we know it faces an existential crisis as the nation's demographics shift away from its core constituents—older white middle-class Christians. It is the American conservatism that we don't know that concerns George Hawley in this book. During its ascendancy, leaders within the conservative establishment have energetically policed the movement’s boundaries, effectively keeping alternative versions of conservatism out of view. Returning those neglected voices to the story, Right-Wing Critics of American Conservatism offers a more complete, complex, and nuanced account of the American right in all its dissonance in history and in our day. The right-wing intellectual movements considered here differ both from mainstream conservatism and from each other when it comes to fundamental premises, such as the value of equality, the proper role of the state, the importance of free markets, the place of religion in politics, and attitudes toward race. In clear and dispassionate terms, Hawley examines localists who exhibit equal skepticism toward big business and big government, paleoconservatives who look to the distant past for guidance and wish to turn back the clock, radical libertarians who are not content to be junior partners in the conservative movement, and various strains of white supremacy and the radical right in America. In the Internet age, where access is no longer determined by the select few, the independent right has far greater opportunities to make its many voices heard. This timely work puts those voices into context and historical perspective, clarifying our understanding of the American right—past, present, and future.
A contributors' "who's who" from the academic and policy communities explain and provide perspectives on John Taylor's revolutionary thinking about monetary policy. They explore some of the literature that Taylor inspired and help us understand how the new ways of thinking that he pioneered have influenced actual policy here and abroad.
An advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic equilibrium models, with discussion of the implications for monetary and fiscal policy. This textbook offers an advanced treatment of modern macroeconomics, presented through a sequence of dynamic general equilibrium models based on intertemporal optimization on the part of economic agents. The book treats macroeconomics as applied and policy-oriented general equilibrium analysis, examining a number of models, each of which is suitable for investigating specific issues but may be unsuitable for others. After presenting a brief survey of the evolution of macroeconomics and the key facts about long-run economic growth and aggregate fluctuations, the book introduces the main elements of the intertemporal approach through a series of two-period competitive general equilibrium models—the simplest possible intertemporal models. This sets the stage for the remainder of the book, which presents models of economic growth, aggregate fluctuations, and monetary and fiscal policy. The text focuses on a full analysis of a limited number of key intertemporal models, which are stripped down to essentials so that students can focus on the dynamic properties of the models. Exercises encourage students to try their hands at solving versions of the dynamic models that define modern macroeconomics. Appendixes review the main mathematical techniques needed to analyze optimizing dynamic macroeconomic models. The book is suitable for advanced undergraduate and graduate students who have some knowledge of economic theory and mathematics for economists.
Historians and economists will find here what their fields have in common - the movement since the 1950s known variously as 'cliometrics', 'economic history', or 'historical economics'. A leading figure in the movement, Donald McCloskey, has compiled, with the help of George Hersh and a panel of distinguished advisors, a highly comprehensive bibliography of historical economics covering the period up until 1980. The book will be useful to all economic historians, as well as quantitative historians, applied economists, historical demographers, business historians, national income accountants, and social historians.
This title was first published in 2002: From Individualism to the Individual treats finance as a social and cultural process, exploring the unseen side of academic discourse and the many obstacles the deeply entrenched elite puts in the way of alternative thinking. Opening with a detailed discussion of the role of ideology in the perpetuation of the limited methodological bias of the profession toward markets, the book then examines the more specific effects of such ideological limitations on theoretical and empirical research in finance. The authors develop alternative ways to examine finance both as a profession and as a field of inquiry. This book will be of particular value to researchers and practitioners working in finance, as well as those in other social science disciplines whose research relates to finance, culture and society.
First published in 1976, and revised in 1996, George H. Nash’s celebrated history of the postwar conservative intellectual movement has become the unquestioned standard in the field. This new edition, published in commemoration of the volume’s thirtieth anniversary, includes a new preface by Nash and will continue to instruct anyone interested in how today’s conservative movement was born.
Join the conversation with one of sociology’s best-known thinkers. Essentials of Sociology, Second Edition adapted from George Ritzer’s Introduction to Sociology, Third Edition, provides the same rock-solid foundation in a shorter and more streamlined format. Like the original Ritzer text, Essentials of Sociology illuminates traditional sociological concepts and theories, and focuses on some of the most compelling contemporary social phenomena: globalization, consumer culture, the Internet, and the “McDonaldization” of society. As technology flattens the globe, students are challenged to apply a sociological perspective to their world, and to see how “public” sociologists are engaging with the critical issues of today.
A revised and rewritten version of the best-selling textbook, described by Sociological Review as 'essential reading for every student of social policy.
An accessible and comprehensive introduction to key concepts in globalization written by leading authors in the field In the comprehensively revised Third Edition of Globalization: A Basic Text, distinguished researchers and authors George Ritzer and Paul Dean deliver an up-to-date introduction to major trends and topics related to the study of globalization. The book includes accessible and rigorous material on the key theories and major topics in globalization, as well as modern developments like the rise of populism and far-right political groups, Brexit, migration and backlash to it, trade negotiations, social media and the spread of misinformation, climate change, social justice issues, and COVID-19. The new edition includes a greater focus on the structures of inequality that encourage or discourage global flows. Additionally, new examples and sources from Central and South America, Africa, and Asia are used to illustrate key concepts, and round out the international coverage of book. Throughout, the authors use clear and helpful metaphors including solids, liquids, gases, and flows to introduce and explain the complex nature of globalization in an engaging and understandable way. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: A thorough introduction to globalization and related processes, including imperialism, colonialism, development, and westernization An exploration of neoliberalism, including its roots, principles, criticisms, and Neo-Marxist alternatives A practical discussion of global political structures and processes, as well as global economic flows of production and consumption A concise treatment of negative global flows and processes, including dangerous imports, diseases, crime, terrorism, and war Analysis of the changing nature of globalization and de-globalization, and the social movements and technological developments driving these changes More images, charts, and graphs to help illustrate and highlight the concepts contained in the book Perfect for advanced undergraduates studying globalization across sociology, political science, geography, anthropology, and economics, Globalization: A Basic Text, Third Edition will also be essential reading for students taking courses in culture, economy and inequality, and migration taught from a global perspective.
While historians have devoted an enormous amount of attention to documenting how African Americans gained access to formal politics in the mid-1960s, very few have scrutinized what happened next, and the small body of work that does consider the aftermath of the civil rights movement is almost entirely limited to the Black Power era. In Rumor, Repression, and Racial Politics, Derek Musgrove pushes much further, presenting a powerful new historical framework for understanding race and politics between 1965 and 1996. He argues that in order to make sense of this recent period, we need to examine the harassment of black elected officials - the ways black politicians were denied access to seats they'd won in elections or, after taking office, were targeted in corruption probes. Musgrove's aim is not to evaluate whether individual allegations of corruption had merit, but to establish what the pervasive harassment of black politicians has meant, politically and culturally, over the course of recent American history. It's a story that takes him from California to Michigan to Alabama, and along the way covers a fascinating range of topics: Watergate, the surveillance state, the power of conspiracy theories, the plunge in voter turnout, and even the strange political campaigns of Lyndon LaRouche"--Provided by publisher.
Psychology is of interest to academics from many fields, as well as to the thousands of academic and clinical psychologists and general public who can't help but be interested in learning more about why humans think and behave as they do. This award-winning twelve-volume reference covers every aspect of the ever-fascinating discipline of psychology and represents the most current knowledge in the field. This ten-year revision now covers discoveries based in neuroscience, clinical psychology's new interest in evidence-based practice and mindfulness, and new findings in social, developmental, and forensic psychology.
The ability to find and analyse information quickly and accurately can give a business an edge over its competitors. The authors show how to learn the skills that help transform widely accessible raw data into useful knowledge, by adapting techniques used by such organizations as the CIA.
This pioneering work, based on many years of reading and research and ranging mainly from the seventeenth century to the present, breaks new ground in intelligence bibliography. It is the most comprehensive and thorough bibliography of English-language nonfiction books on intelligence and espionage to date. The in-depth analytical annotations deal
From acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller, the case for why government is needed to restore confidence in the economy The global financial crisis has made it painfully clear that powerful psychological forces are imperiling the wealth of nations today. From blind faith in ever-rising housing prices to plummeting confidence in capital markets, "animal spirits" are driving financial events worldwide. In this book, acclaimed economists George Akerlof and Robert Shiller challenge the economic wisdom that got us into this mess, and put forward a bold new vision that will transform economics and restore prosperity. Akerlof and Shiller reassert the necessity of an active government role in economic policymaking by recovering the idea of animal spirits, a term John Maynard Keynes used to describe the gloom and despondence that led to the Great Depression and the changing psychology that accompanied recovery. Like Keynes, Akerlof and Shiller know that managing these animal spirits requires the steady hand of government—simply allowing markets to work won't do it. In rebuilding the case for a more robust, behaviorally informed Keynesianism, they detail the most pervasive effects of animal spirits in contemporary economic life—such as confidence, fear, bad faith, corruption, a concern for fairness, and the stories we tell ourselves about our economic fortunes—and show how Reaganomics, Thatcherism, and the rational expectations revolution failed to account for them. Animal Spirits offers a road map for reversing the financial misfortunes besetting us today. Read it and learn how leaders can channel animal spirits—the powerful forces of human psychology that are afoot in the world economy today. In a new preface, they describe why our economic troubles may linger for some time—unless we are prepared to take further, decisive action.
The time is the very near future — any year now. David Burg, a Professor of Mathematics and Cybernetics at Jefferson College, with his colleagues, has created the world's first high-order artificial intelligence. Created with a library full of information and superhuman learning skills, and acute seeing and hearing skills, JO is far being a robot. When JO's presence is announced, upstaging all those other groups who have been working for many years to get there first—especially the government— a shock wave is felt. When the government sends Ellen Farmer to penetrate JO's files, she is discovered by JO and persuaded by David to become a kind of 'double agent'. Inevitably this leads to a truly human connection between David Burg and JO.
Covering people and events from the 1630s to the present day, this reference offers 455 entries on such topics as dirty politics, white-collar scams, botched cover-ups, tawdry love affairs, and despicable acts of corruption.
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