Energy efficiency help meet energy needs, decrease costs and lower environmental impact. An analysis of successful countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia indicate the importance of learning from neighbors with proven track records, implementing innovative programs, and relying on good governance.
The purpose of Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis is to assist the Government of Tajikistan (GoT) in exploring ways to overcome electricity shortages due to rising demand for electricity. It focuses on investments and policy reforms in order to strengthen the financial, technical, and institutional capacities in the power sector and to prepare the Government for undertaking a major expansion of power supply capacity until the year 2020. The Study explores a range of supply and demand alternatives (e.g., thermal, run-of-river hydro, other renewables, energy efficiency and demand management) excluding the option of large hydropower plants especially those requiring storage capacities, given the complexity and delays in their establishment. The option of a large hydropower project in Tajikistan, such as Rogun, is being explored by the various studies conducted by the Government and has involved a long process of information sharing on the findings of the studies for consensus building among stakeholders including Tajikistan, riparian Governments and their various Civil Society Organizations. Such a process requires the assurance of international quality standards, and incorporation of the concerns of all stakeholders. Without prompt actions, as recommended by the Study to address the causes of Tajikistan’s electricity crisis in the next 4-5 years, the shortages could increase to about 4,500 GWh by 2016 - translating to over a third of winter electricity demand. Following the recommendations of the current Study, the GoT will be on the road to establishing a long term energy security in Tajikistan.
Energy efficiency is an important factor in an economy, since it helps meet energy needs, decrease costs, and lower environmental impacts. A review of the evolution of energy intensity in European and Former Soviet Union countries indicates a positive trend: high-energy-intensity countries have now reached the level of medium-energy-intensity economies 15 years earlier, and in the same period, medium-energy-intensity ones had similarly evolved to levels of low-energy-intensity. At the same time, the fast transitioning economies of Central Europe converged towards similar levels of energy intensities, in line with EU Directives, while successful EU-15 countries managed to maintain economic growth while keeping energy use flat. This report looks at how countries effect the transition from high- to medium- to low-energy-intensity, exploring whether leapfrogging is possible (it’s not) and what policies can be particularly helpful. Some of the lessons include: energy prices tend to evolve from subsidized levels to full-cost-recovery to full-cost-recovery-plus environmental externalities; industrial energy efficiency is often the starting point, with privatization and competition driving companies to reduce production costs, including energy; successful countries excell at governance (setting targets, building institutional capacity, creating and improving the legal and regulatory framework, and monitoring and evaluating); households tended to be the last, and most difficult, area of reform, starting with pricing improvements, outreach campaigns, financing programs, and building certificates programs.
Tajikistan suffers severe energy shortages in winter, caused by a combination of low hydropower output during winter, when river fl ows are low, and high demand driven by heating needs. Shortages affect some 70 percent of the population, costing about 3 percent of annual GDP. This fi gure excludes human and environmental costs, as well as the serious negative effect on the business investment climate. If no measures are undertaken to address this problem, then current electricity shortages, estimated at about one-quarter of winter demand (2,700 GWh), could increase to more than one-third of winter demand (4,500 GWh) by 2016. The Government of Tajikistan recognizes both the importance and challenges of energy security and has therefore introduced various measures to help meet demand. Tajikistan's Winter Energy Crisis explores a range of supply and demand alternatives--including thermal, run-of-river hydro, other renewables, energy effi ciency, and demand management--to further inform its development partners on the country's efforts to meet its winter energy demand. The study recommends that the Government of Tajikistan - accelerate its efforts in energy effi ciency and demand management, including tariff reform; - add new dual-fi red thermal power supply to complement the existing hydropower supply during winter; and - pursue energy imports and rebuild regional energy trade routes to leverage surplus electricity supply in neighboring countries. Energy conservation and demand-side management, effective resource management, and reduction alone could address 40 percent of the shortages, including a signifi cant package of economic measures at the main aluminum smelting plant. The study suggests that by following these recommended actions shortages could be signifi cantly reduced within 4-5 years and a solid base for long-term energy established.
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