Germany’s macroprudential policy toolkit is well-developed, but its key missing piece is a set of instruments related to a borrower’s income. In addition, existing powers to adopt LTV limits have not yet been deployed. Against this background, this paper advances the discussion of borrower-based macroprudential policy in Germany by explaining how borrower-based measures could strengthen financial stability, macroeconomic stability, and consumer protection; explaining how potential concerns about these instruments could be addressed; offering approaches to initial calibrations of instruments for further analysis; and hinting at their likely effects based on other countries’ experiences. The paper also uses a microsimulation model to show that activating borrower-based measures could provide as much capital to the banking system as the capital buffer requirements that were activated in 2022.
Reducing transport sector emissions is an important pillar of the green transition. However, the transition to electric vehicles (EV) portends major changes in vehicle manufacturing activity, on which many livelihoods in Europe depend. Using the heterogeneity across European countries in the speed of transition to EV production and variation in sectoral and regional exposure to the automotive sector, this paper offers early evidence of the labor market implications of the EV transition. Our results suggest that the transformation of the auto sector is already having an adverse impact on employment in the affected sectors and regions, which can be expected to grow at least in the near term. Many of the affected workers will be able to retire and our analysis suggests that those who will have to transition to new “greener” jobs have a fair chance to do so when compared to other workers in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, we find evidence that active labor market policies, specifically training, can help to reduce the adjustment costs for the affected workers.
Over the last two decades, cash holdings in nonfinancial firms around the world have increased. This phenomenon is particularly concerning in Japan, where the success of Abenomics depends on a transition from stimulus-driven to self-sustaining growth based on private consumption and investment. This paper finds that Japanese nonfinancial firms have accumulated cash at the expense of investment and dividends, hampering this transition. The evidence suggests that cash accumulation is due to financial imperfections combined with rising corporate profitability and uncertainty, while corporate governance plays only a limited role. These firms have cash holdings available for investment of about 5 percent of GDP. Policy options for encouraging the use of these cash holdings include improving firms’ access to market-based financing and discouraging CEO duality.
We propose a novel approach to measure the dynamic macroeconomic effects of immigration on the destination country, combining the analysis of episodes of large immigration waves with instrumental variables techniques. We distinguish the impact of immigration shocks in OECD countries from that of refugee immigration in emerging and developing economies. In OECD, large immigration waves raise domestic output and productivity in both the short and the medium term, pointing to significant dynamic gains for the host economy. We find no evidence of negative effects on aggregate employment of the native-born population. In contrast, our analysis of large refugee flows into emerging and developing countries does not find clear evidence of macroeconomic effects on the host country, a conclusion in line with a growing body of evidence that refugee immigrants are at disadvantage compared to other type of immigrants.
Following the 2022 energy crisis, this paper investigates whether Europe’s ongoing efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions can also enhance its energy security. The global computational general equilibrium model analysis finds that individual policy tools, including carbon pricing, energy efficiency standards, and accelerated permitting procedures for renewables, tend to improve energy security. Compared to carbon pricing, sector-specific regulations deliver larger energy security gains and spread those more evenly across countries, benefitting also some fossil-fuel-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe. This finding strengthens the case for a broad climate policy package, which can both achieve Europe’s emissions-reduction goals and deliver sizeable energy security co-benefits. An illustrative package, which would cut emissions in the EU, UK, and EFTA by 55 percent with respect to 1990 levels by 2030, is estimated to improve the two energy security metrics used in this paper by close to 8 percent already by 2030. Beyond the policies analyzed in the model, the paper also discusses the technology, market design, and supply chain reforms that Europe needs for an energy-secure green transition.
When the U.S. economy sneezes, do emerging markets catch a cold? We show that economic news, and not just monetary policy, in the United States affects financial conditions in emerging markets. News about U.S. employment has the strongest effects, followed by news about economic activity and about vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. News about inflation has instead limited effects on average. A key channel of international transmission of U.S. economic news appears to be the risk perceptions or risk aversion of international investors. We also show that some of the transmission of U.S. economic news occurs independently of the U.S. monetary policy reaction. Finally, we expand on evidence that financial conditions in the U.S. and emerging markets respond differently to U.S. monetary policy surprises, depending on the reaction of US stock prices.
Cyber risk is an emerging source of systemic risk in the financial sector, and possibly a macro-critical risk too. It is therefore important to integrate it into financial sector surveillance. This paper offers a range of analytical approaches to assess and monitor cyber risk to the financial sector, including various approaches to stress testing. The paper illustrates these techniques by applying them to Singapore. As an advanced economy with a complex financial system and rapid adoption of fintech, Singapore serves as a good case study. We place our results in the context of recent cybersecurity developments in the public and private sectors, which can be a reference for surveillance work.
In this first book of a trilogy, see an Earth-like planet and its population shaped by I AM (God) to perform a special task. I AM, An Alternate Saga of Biblical Proportions takes readers to a world where some very bad things happen, as a determined I AM shapes mankind into the most ruthless of warriors. Who better than Humans to wage war upon the Empire of Satan? Meet the players: Clan MacLee who rebuilds their community after a devastating flood; the evil Order of Ra who control the world by shaping its leaders with drugs and debauchery; and the Sisters of the Khan, whose ancient sorority dictates all large-scale farming. The primary sport is long-boat rowing, which develops the huge powerful shoulders needed to perform I AM's task. It also ties up a large portion of the world's economy in wagering on races. The tale is an oral history being recited four thousand years into the future. The students hearing it are Cactus Monkeys, one of the original sentient species inhabiting this planet. Be aware of this novel's violence, sensuality, and religious controversy. About the Author: Galen H. Mullis is a native New Mexican, Navy veteran, thespian, avid balloonist, and Jack of all trades. "Lying in the hospital trying to survive a major heart attack, I was granted a vision of this wondrous story. I sat in amazement as words flowed from my fingertips. This story was truly inspired by something beyond my humble understanding of the universe." Publisher's website: http: //sbpra.com/galenhmullis
After being nearly electrocuted during a hang gliding accident Pastor Robb Barker begins to supernaturally see the demons that are influencing his decisions. The demons give him great worldly success while his opponents are either jailed or killed. Ultimately Robb is forced into choices that will decide whether his family will be destroyed and he will survive being sent to Hell. “SEER...is an amazing novel. Every Christian should read it.” – Pastor Glenn Brown, President H. Glenn Brown Ministries. “The description of Hell is absolutely terrifying.” – B.K.D., Flatirons Community Church, Lafayette, CO.
American leaders have cooperated with regimes around the world that are, to varying degrees, repressive or corrupt. Such cooperation is said to serve the national interest. But these partnerships also contravene the nation’s commitments to democratic governance, civil liberties, and free markets. During the Cold War, policymakers were casual about sacrificing important values for less-than-compelling strategic rationales. Since the 9/11 attacks, similar ethical compromises have taken place, although policymakers now seem more selective than their Cold War–era counterparts. Americans want a foreign policy that pursues national interests while observing American values. How might that reconciliation of interest and morality be accomplished? In Perilous Partners, authors Ted Galen Carpenter and Malou Innocent provide a strategy for resolving the ethical dilemmas between interests and values faced by Washington. They propose maintaining an arm’s-length relationship with authoritarian regimes, emphasizing that the United States must not operate internationally in ways that routinely pollute American values. It is a strategy based on ethical pragmatism, which is the best way to reconcile America’s strategic interests and its fundamental values. Perilous Partners creates a strategy for conducting an effective U.S. foreign policy without betraying fundamental American values.
In this elegant new study Galen Johnson retrieves the concept of the beautiful through the framework of Merleau-Ponty’s aesthetics. Although Merleau-Ponty seldom spoke directly of beauty, his philosophy is essentially about the beautiful. In Johnson’s formulation, the ontology of Flesh as element and the ontology of the Beautiful as elemental are folded together, for Desire, Love, and Beauty are part of the fabric of the world’s element, Flesh itself, the term at which Merleau-Ponty arrived to replace Substance, Matter, or Life as the name of Being. Merleau-Ponty’s Eye and Mind is at the core of the book, so Johnson engages, as Merleau-Ponty did, the writings and visual work of Paul Cézanne, Auguste Rodin, and Paul Klee, as well as Rilke’s commentary on Cézanne and Rodin. From these widely varying aesthetics emerge the fundamental themes of the retrieval of the beautiful: desire, repetition, difference, rhythm, and the sublime. The third part of Johnson’s book takes each of these up in turn, bringing Merleau-Ponty’s aesthetic thinking into dialogue with classical philosophy as well as Sartre, Heidegger, Nietzsche, and Deleuze. Johnson concludes his final chapter with a direct dialogue with Kant and Merleau-Ponty, and also Lyotard, on the subject of the beautiful and the sublime. As we experience with Rodin’s Balzac, beauty and the sublime blend into one another when the beautiful grows powerful, majestic, mysterious, and transcendent.
* Cross-platform coverage for Mac and Windows versions; covers the long-awaited upgrade of QuarkXPress, which will be compatible with Mac OS X * Written from the perspective of the real-world designer or production specialist, this book uses visual examples to explain how to use the program in the context of real work * Addresses all significant aspects of QuarkXPress, including color print-ing, online publishing, workflow considerations, cross-platform exchange, source file preparation, printed output, and much more * Covers new features and tools for publishing to print, Web, and mobile devices * Includes a Quick Start section to get readers up and running by creating an actual project, plus an all-new tear-out reference card * QuarkXPress has been by far the world's leading page composition tool since the early 1990s, with an installed base estimated at more than three million
From the experts at Publish magazine is the thorough guide to using Quark XPress for Windows. The full power--and techniques for getting to those features--is explained. Includes hundreds of tips, techniques, and design ideas.
Germany’s macroprudential policy toolkit is well-developed, but its key missing piece is a set of instruments related to a borrower’s income. In addition, existing powers to adopt LTV limits have not yet been deployed. Against this background, this paper advances the discussion of borrower-based macroprudential policy in Germany by explaining how borrower-based measures could strengthen financial stability, macroeconomic stability, and consumer protection; explaining how potential concerns about these instruments could be addressed; offering approaches to initial calibrations of instruments for further analysis; and hinting at their likely effects based on other countries’ experiences. The paper also uses a microsimulation model to show that activating borrower-based measures could provide as much capital to the banking system as the capital buffer requirements that were activated in 2022.
Following the 2022 energy crisis, this paper investigates whether Europe’s ongoing efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions can also enhance its energy security. The global computational general equilibrium model analysis finds that individual policy tools, including carbon pricing, energy efficiency standards, and accelerated permitting procedures for renewables, tend to improve energy security. Compared to carbon pricing, sector-specific regulations deliver larger energy security gains and spread those more evenly across countries, benefitting also some fossil-fuel-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe. This finding strengthens the case for a broad climate policy package, which can both achieve Europe’s emissions-reduction goals and deliver sizeable energy security co-benefits. An illustrative package, which would cut emissions in the EU, UK, and EFTA by 55 percent with respect to 1990 levels by 2030, is estimated to improve the two energy security metrics used in this paper by close to 8 percent already by 2030. Beyond the policies analyzed in the model, the paper also discusses the technology, market design, and supply chain reforms that Europe needs for an energy-secure green transition.
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