Franziska Ohnsorge's Books

Global Waves of Debt

Causes and Consequences

By: M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara

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Global Waves of Debt

Causes and Consequences

By: M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,Franziska Ohnsorge,Naotaka Sugawara

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

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403

Publisher

World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464815453

ISBN 13

9781464815454

The Long Shadow of Informality

Challenges and Policies

By: Franziska Ohnsorge,Shu Yu

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The Long Shadow of Informality

Challenges and Policies

By: Franziska Ohnsorge,Shu Yu

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging market and developing economies. This may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic--unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes--including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.

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397

Publisher

World Bank Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1464817545

ISBN 13

9781464817540

After the Crisis

Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances?

By: Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Mr.Ashoka Mody

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After the Crisis

Lower Consumption Growth But Narrower Global Imbalances?

By: Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Mr.Ashoka Mody

We estimate consumption dynamics in the G-7 economies, paying particular attention to the possibility of precautionary behavior in the face of uncertainty. We find that in the short run, continued income uncertainty will significantly dampen consumption growth. As such, consumption in the G-7 economies is unlikely to be the engine that revives global growth. Differences in the pace and timing of consumption moderation have implications for the evolution of global imbalances. With the U.S. experiencing a sharper rise in unemployment and, perhaps, more widespread loss of financial wealth than elsewhere in the G-7, the relative rise of the U.S. savings rate is helping narrow global imbalances. But with a likely earlier recovery in the U.S., this narrowing could be short-lived. Moreover, long-term differences- in economic and financial volatility and in demographic structures-have been an important source of the imbalances and could soon reassert their prominence.

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Publisher

International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451961960

ISBN 13

9781451961966

Why Complementarity Matters for Stability—Hong Kong SAR and Singapore as Asian Financial Centers

By: Mrs.Vanessa Le Lesle,Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Minsuk Kim,Srikant Seshadri

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Why Complementarity Matters for Stability—Hong Kong SAR and Singapore as Asian Financial Centers

By: Mrs.Vanessa Le Lesle,Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Minsuk Kim,Srikant Seshadri

There is much speculation regarding a “race for dominance” among financial centers in Asia, arising from the anticipated financial opening up of China. This frame of reference is, to an extent, a predilection that results from a traditional understanding of financial centers as possessing historical, geographic, and scale economy advantages. This paper, however, suggests that there is an alternative prism through which the evolution of financial centers in Asia needs to be viewed. It underscores the importance of “complementarity” rather than “dominance” to better serve regional and global financial stability. We posit that such complementarity is vital, through network analysis of the roles of Hong Kong SAR and Singapore as the current leading financial centers in the region. This analysis suggests that a competition for dominance can result in de-stabilizing levels of interconnectivity that render the global “network” as a whole more susceptible to rapid propagation of shocks. We then examine the regulatory and policy challenges that may be encountered in furthering such complementary coexistence.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

149835713X

ISBN 13

9781498357135

Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices

By: Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Marcin Wolski,Ms.Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

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Safe Havens, Feedback Loops, and Shock Propagation in Global Asset Prices

By: Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Marcin Wolski,Ms.Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

We create a network of bilateral correlations of changes in sovereign bond yields and individual bank equity price changes since 2000. We extract some stylized facts from this network of asset price correlations and document the clear differences in asset price correlations between safe havens and non-safe havens: safe havens, as commonly defined, have higher sovereign-sovereign, bank-bank, and bank-sovereign correlations than nonsafe havens. In a simple shock propagation model, we illustrate how these higher correlations may turn safe havens into shock propagators. While we discuss safe havens as a group, we document how the US is in a category of its own, differing significantly from the other countries including Switzerland or Japan. Separately, we find that feedback loops amplify shocks, and those emanating from bank stress more than those emanating from sovereign stress.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484381890

ISBN 13

9781484381892

Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

By: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi,Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge

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Do Inflows or Outflows Dominate? Global Implications of Capital Account Liberalization in China

By: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi,Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge

This paper assesses the implications of Chinese capital account liberalization for capital flows. Stylized facts from capital account liberalization in advanced and large emerging market economies illustrate that capital account liberalization has historically generated large gross capital in- and outflows, but the direction of net flows has depended on many factors. An econometric portfolio allocation model finds that capital controls significantly dampen cross-border portfolio asset holdings. The model also suggests that capital account liberalization in China may trigger net portfolio outflows as large domestic savings seek to diversify abroad.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475591446

ISBN 13

9781475591446

Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession

By: Mr.Ashoka Mody,Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Mr.Damiano Sandri

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Precautionary Savings in the Great Recession

By: Mr.Ashoka Mody,Ms.Franziska Ohnsorge,Mr.Damiano Sandri

Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income uncertainty is significantly associated with higher household savings. These results are robust to controlling for other determinants of saving rates, including wealth-to-income ratios, the government fiscal balance, demographics, credit conditions, and global growth and financial stress. Our estimates imply that at least two-fifths of the sharp increase in household saving rates between 2007 and 2009 can be attributed to the precautionary savings motive.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1463942389

ISBN 13

9781463942380

Toward A Fiscal Union for the Euro Area

By: Céline Allard,Ms.Petya Koeva Brooks,Mr.John C Bluedorn,Fabian Bornhorst,Ms.Franziska L Ohnsorge,Mrs.Katharine M Christopherson Puh

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Toward A Fiscal Union for the Euro Area

By: Céline Allard,Ms.Petya Koeva Brooks,Mr.John C Bluedorn,Fabian Bornhorst,Ms.Franziska L Ohnsorge,Mrs.Katharine M Christopherson Puh

This is on a highly topical issue and addresses a key policy issue for Europe—namely, reinforcing EMU institutional architecture along with the Banking Union. Some proposals have emerged in Europe, and it will be important to put out staff views on this issue. In that context, publication as an SDN is appropriate, given the high profile nature and relevance of the topic—much like the Banking Union paper done a few months ago.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1484307372

ISBN 13

9781484307373

The Chemistry of Mycotoxins

By: Stefan Bräse,Franziska Gläser,Carsten Kramer,Stephanie Lindner,Anna M. Linsenmeier,Kye-Simeon Masters,Anne C. Meister,Bettina M. Ruff,Sabilla Zhong

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The Chemistry of Mycotoxins

By: Stefan Bräse,Franziska Gläser,Carsten Kramer,Stephanie Lindner,Anna M. Linsenmeier,Kye-Simeon Masters,Anne C. Meister,Bettina M. Ruff,Sabilla Zhong

The biological activity of mycotoxins ranges from weak and/or sometimes positive effects, such as antibacterial activity (see penicillin derivatives derived from Penicillium strains) to strong mutagenic (e. g. aflatoxins, patulin), carcinogenic (e. g. aflatoxins), teratogenic, neurotoxic (e. g. ochratoxins), nephrotoxic (e. g. fumonisins, citrinin), hepatotoxic, and immunotoxic (e. g. ochratoxins, diketopiperazines) activity. Nowadays, many laboratories around the world are specialized in the detection of mycotoxins in food products and contaminated material found in housing. In this volume, a focus on the most important classes of mycotoxins is provided and their chemistry of the last ten years is discussed. In each Section, the individual biological impact is outlined. Sections are arranged according to mycotoxin classes (e. g. aflatoxins) and/or structural classes (e. g. resorcinyl lactones, diketopiperazines). The biology of mycotoxins is also described.

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