Flora Lutz's Books

Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

By: Tsendsuren Batsuuri,Shan He,Ruofei Hu,Jonathan Leslie,Flora Lutz

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Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

By: Tsendsuren Batsuuri,Shan He,Ruofei Hu,Jonathan Leslie,Flora Lutz

This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 13

9798400269363

Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Under Fire-Sale Externalities

By: Flora Lutz

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Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Under Fire-Sale Externalities

By: Flora Lutz

I provide an integrated analysis of monetary and macroprudential policies in a model economy featuring a financial friction and a nominal wage rigidity. In this set-up, the monetary authority faces a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stability: While expansionary counter-cyclical monetary policy prevents involuntary unemployment, it also amplifies an inefficient reallocation of capital across sectors. The main contribution of the analysis is threefold: First it highlights a novel channel through which monetary policy can impact financial stability. Second, it shows that, by itself, monetary policy can significantly mitigate the wedge between the constrained efficient and the competitive allocation. Third, regardless of the availability of macroprudential tools, stabilizing demand is usually not optimal for monetary policy.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 13

9798400235191

Annoying

The Science of What Bugs Us

By: Joe Palca,Flora Lichtman

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Annoying

The Science of What Bugs Us

By: Joe Palca,Flora Lichtman

Two crackerjack science journalists from NPR look at why some things (and some people!) drive us crazy It happens everywhere?offices, schools, even your own backyard. Plus, seemingly anything can trigger it?cell phones, sirens, bad music, constant distractions, your boss, or even your spouse. We all know certain things get under our skin. Can science explain why? Palca and Lichtman take you on a scientific quest through psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, and other disciplines to uncover the truth about being annoyed. What is the recipe for annoyance? For starters, it should be temporary, unpleasant, and unpredictable, like a boring meeting or mosquito bites Gives fascinating, surprising explanations for why people react the way they do to everything from chili peppers to fingernails on a blackboard Explains why irrational behavior (like tearing your hair out in traffic) is connected to worthwhile behavior (like staying on task) Includes tips for identifying your own irritating habits! How often can you say you're happily reading a really Annoying book? The insights are fascinating, the exploration is fun, and the knowledge you gain, if you act like you know everything, can be really annoying.

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184

Publisher

Turner Publishing Company

Published Date

ISBN 10

1118028112

ISBN 13

9781118028117

Schoolhousing

Planning and Designing Educational Facilities

By: Flora Ida Ortiz

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Schoolhousing

Planning and Designing Educational Facilities

By: Flora Ida Ortiz

Schoolhousing presents a theoretical and practical portrayal of how, when, and why public school districts build new schools. Based on extensive data analysis and a comprehensive review of the literature, the book specifies school district reorganization and subsequent steps necessary to implement plans. The book discusses and considers how school districts relate to state agencies on regulatory, fiscal, and support bases. It also addresses questions important to school district officials, principals, architects, contractors, and others engaged in projects which require long-term management. The work is unique in that both organizational points of view and individual roles are presented.

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212

Publisher

SUNY Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0791417271

ISBN 13

9780791417270

Brainmedia

One Hundred Years of Performing Live Brains, 1920–2020

By: Flora Lysen

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Brainmedia

One Hundred Years of Performing Live Brains, 1920–2020

By: Flora Lysen

Will we ever be able to see the brain at work? Could it be possible to observe thinking and feeling as if watching a live broadcast from within the human head? Brainmedia uncovers past and present examples of scientists and science educators who conceptualize and demonstrate the active human brain guided by new media technologies: from exhibitions of giant illuminated brain models and staged projections of brainwave recordings to live televised brain broadcasts, brains hooked up to computers and experiments with “brain-to-brain” synchronization. Drawing on archival material, Brainmedia outlines a new history of “live brains,” arguing that practices of-and ideas about-mediation impacted the imagination of seeing the brain at work. By combining accounts of scientists examining brains in laboratories with examples of public demonstrations and exhibitions of brain research, Brainmedia casts new light on popularization practices, placing them at the heart of scientific work.

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Page Count

305

Publisher

Bloomsbury Publishing USA

Published Date

ISBN 10

1501378740

ISBN 13

9781501378744

Flora Macdonald: "Pretty Young Rebel"

Her Life and Story

By: Flora Fraser

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Flora Macdonald: "Pretty Young Rebel"

Her Life and Story

By: Flora Fraser

A captivating biography of the remarkable young Scotswoman whose bold decision to help “Bonnie” Prince Charlie—the Stuart claimant to the British throne—evade capture and flee the country has become the stuff of legend. After his decisive defeat at the Battle of Culloden in 1746, Prince Charles Edward Stuart was a man on the run. Seeking refuge in the Outer Hebrides, hoping to escape to France, he found an unlikely ally in Flora MacDonald, a young woman in her early twenties, loyal to the Stuarts. Disguising the prince as an Irish maid, petticoats and all, Flora conveyed Charles by boat to Skye, where they lodged safely with her family, until the prince’s inexpert handling of feminine attire caused concern, and he was persuaded to forgo the ruse before fleeing the area undetected. Flora never saw him again. This famous incident led to Flora’s enduring appeal as a courageous Scottish heroine, inspiring and influencing countless novels, poems, and songs—most notably, the classic ballad “Skye Boat Song” adapted from a traditional tune in the late nineteenth century. But her remarkable life didn’t come to a close with her clandestine mission to Skye. Faced with a confession from one of the boatmen, Flora was arrested and taken to London on charges of treason, where under interrogation, she wittily deflected questions and staunchly defended her motives. She was eventually released under the 1747 Act of Indemnity, but disaster would befall her yet again: in 1774, Flora and her husband, Allan MacDonald, fled the impoverished highlands for a brighter future in Cross Creek, North Carolina—utterly unaware of the burgeoning revolution that would upend their lives there, with Allan imprisoned and Flora fleeing, penniless, back home to the Hebrides. In this probing, evocative portrait of a tumultuous life, master historian Flora Fraser peels away the layers of misinformation, legend, and myth to reveal Flora MacDonald in full. Fraser presents a fascinating picture of this headstrong and irrepressible woman. As Samuel Johnson declared upon visiting her in Scotland, her name was “a name that will be mentioned in history, and if courage and fidelity be virtues, mentioned with honor.”

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Page Count

313

Publisher

Knopf

Published Date

ISBN 10

0451494393

ISBN 13

9780451494399

Book's by Flora Lutz

Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

Predicting IMF-Supported Programs: A Machine Learning Approach

Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Under Fire-Sale Externalities

Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies Under Fire-Sale Externalities

Annoying

Annoying

Schoolhousing

Schoolhousing

Brainmedia

Brainmedia

Flora Macdonald: "Pretty Young Rebel"

Flora Macdonald: "Pretty Young Rebel"

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