Fedor Miryugin's Books

Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt

By: Pietro Dallari,Mr.Nicolas End,Fedor Miryugin,Alexander F. Tieman,Mr.Seyed Reza Yousefi

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Pouring Oil on Fire: Interest Deductibility and Corporate Debt

By: Pietro Dallari,Mr.Nicolas End,Fedor Miryugin,Alexander F. Tieman,Mr.Seyed Reza Yousefi

This paper investigates the role of tax incentives towards debt finance in the buildup of leverage in the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector, using a large firm-level dataset. We find that so-called debt bias is a significant driver of leverage, for both small and medium-sized enterprises and larger firms, with its effect accounting for about a quarter of leverage. The strength of this effect differs with firm size, the availability of collateral, income and income volatility, cash flow, and capital intensity. We conclude that leveling the playing field between debt and equity finance through tax policy reform would decrease NFC leverage, reducing economic risks posited by leverage.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484389107

ISBN 13

9781484389102

Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance

By: Mr. Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

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Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance

By: Mr. Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

Climate change is an existential threat to the global economy and financial markets. There is a large body of literature documenting potential macroeconomic consequences of climate change, but firm-level empirical research on how climate change affects the performance of firms remains scarce. This paper aims to close this gap by empirically investigating the impact of climate change vulnerability on corporate performance using a large panel dataset of more than 3.3 million nonfinancial firms from 24 developing countries over the period 1997–2019. We find that nonfinancial firms operating in countries with greater vulnerability to climate change tend to experience difficulty in access to debt financing even at higher interest rates, while being less productive and profitable relative to firms in countries with lower vulnerability to climate change. We confirm these findings with alternative measures of climate change vulnerability. Furthermore, partitioning the sample reveals that these effects are significantly greater for smaller firms, especially in high-risk sectors and countries and countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400208171

Death and Taxes: Does Taxation Matter for Firm Survival?

By: Mr.Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

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Death and Taxes: Does Taxation Matter for Firm Survival?

By: Mr.Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

This paper investigates the impact of taxation on firm survival, using hazard models and a large-scale panel dataset on over 4 million nonfinancial firms from 21 countries over the period 1995–2015. We find ample evidence that a lower level of effective marginal tax rate improves firms’ survival chances. This result is not only statistically but also economically important and remains robust when we partition the sample into country subgroups. The effect of taxation on firms’ survival probability is found to exhibit a non-linear pattern and be stronger in developing countries than advanced economies. These findings have important policy implications for the design of corporate tax systems. The challenge is not simply reducing the statutory tax rate, but to level the playing field for all firms by rationalizing differentiated tax treatments across sectors, asset types and sources of financing.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498311180

ISBN 13

9781498311182

Productivity and Tax Evasion

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Mark Gradstein,Fedor Miryugin,Florian Misch

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Productivity and Tax Evasion

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Mark Gradstein,Fedor Miryugin,Florian Misch

The extent of tax compliance has important implications for revenue yield, efficiency and the fairness of any tax system. Tax evasion undermines revenue collection, distorts competition, and undermines a country’s development prospects. In this paper, we investigate whether higher productivity causally leads to lower tax evasion. We first present stylized facts consistent with this view and develop a model that illustrates one potential transmission channel. Second, we test the model predictions at the firm level using the self-reported share of declared income as proxy for tax evasion for a large sample of emerging and developing economies. Our results suggests that productivity improvements by firms can lead to lower tax evasion.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513522418

ISBN 13

9781513522418

Instruments of Debtstruction: A New Database of Interwar Debt

By: Mr.Nicolas End,Ms.Marina Marinkov,Fedor Miryugin

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Instruments of Debtstruction: A New Database of Interwar Debt

By: Mr.Nicolas End,Ms.Marina Marinkov,Fedor Miryugin

We construct a new, comprehensive instrument-level database of sovereign debt for 18 advanced and emerging countries over the period 1913–46. The database contains data on amounts outstanding for some 3,800 individual debt instruments as well as associated qualitative information, including instrument type, coupon rate, maturity, and currency of issue. This information can provide unique insights into various policies implemented in the interwar period, which was characterized by notoriously high debt levels. We document how interwar governments rolled over debts that were largely unsustainable and how the external public debt network contributed to the collapse of the international financial system in the early 1930s.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513517996

ISBN 13

9781513517995

Does Taxation Stifle Corporate Investment? Firm-Level Evidence from ASEAN Countries

By: Mr.Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

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Does Taxation Stifle Corporate Investment? Firm-Level Evidence from ASEAN Countries

By: Mr.Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

This paper conducts a firm-level analysis of the effect of taxation on corporate investment patterns in member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Using large-scale panel data on nonfinancial firms over the period 1990–2014, and controlling for macro-structural differences among countries, we find a significant degree of persistence in firms’ net fixed investments over time, which vary with firm characteristics, such as size, sales, profitability, leverage, and age. Our analysis brings up interesting empirical results, including nonlinear patterns of behavior in firms’ capital investment decisions acrosss ASEAN countries. Concerning the main variable of interest, we find that a moderate level of taxation does not hinder business investment, but this effect turns negative as higher tax burden raises the user cost of capital and distorts resource allocations.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484344227

ISBN 13

9781484344224

It’s Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation

By: Mr. Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

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It’s Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation

By: Mr. Serhan Cevik,Fedor Miryugin

This paper investigates the impact of fiscal shocks on inflation, using a large panel of 139 countries over the period 1970–2021. First, both headline and core measures of inflation increase in response to expansionary shifts in the fiscal policy stance. Second, we split the sample and observe an intriguing pattern that fiscal policy shocks are primarily significant in developing countries. Third, the inflationary impact of fiscal policy shocks is dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions, as well as monetary policy type, exchange rate regimes and fiscal rules, at the time of the shock. We confirm these results by using the narrative approach and forecast errors, as well as cyclically- adjusted data on government revenues and non-interest expenditures, to identify exogenous changes in fiscal policy. The analysis has several important policy implications: (i) fiscal policy is a critical anchor of macroeconomic stability; (ii) fiscal policy should be used with care in aggregate demand management as it has significant effects on inflation, which are highly dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions; and (iii) flexible exchange rates and rule-based policymaking provide greater resilience to inflationary shocks.

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