Presenting the first integrated view of transition based on a unified analytical framework, this book evaluates the experience of several transition economies. Fabrizio Coricelli's view of transition emphasizes the connection between peculiar initial conditions and the effects of market reforms. Taking the starting point of underdeveloped markets and market institutions, he evaluates macroeconomic policies in relation to their impact on the development of markets. Coricelli stresses particularly financial markets – the 'missing' market under the system of central planning – and he highlights fundamental trade-offs for economic policy which can play a crucial role in determining the success of reforms.
Real bank credit in Eastern European countries after their recent stabilization programs is shown to have fallen sharply, except in the case of Hungary. The meaning of the fall is discussed under the present value and liquidity perspectives. Moreover, it is shown that the hypothesis that output contraction may be partly due to credit contraction cannot be ruled out. The hypothesis is tested on a sample of 85 branches of industry in Poland. The rationale for expecting a connection between credit and output and policy options to attenuate the liquidity crunch in post-socialist economies is also subject to analysis.
This paper develops a model of the process of reallocation of labor from the state sector to the private sector. When growth is exogenously determined, we show that in the initial stages of transition unemployment will rise over time. After a critical stage in the transition process, restructuring is accompanied by a decline in unemployment. When growth is endogenously determined, and human capital is acquired by learning-by-doing, we show that whether restructuring eventually occurs is determined by the level of human capital in the private sector and the rate of unemployment. The effects of various shocks and government policies in affecting the costs, speed, and eventual outcome of restructuring are analyzed.
This book presents an assessment of the fiscal policy challenges facing the Central and East European (CEE) countries as they attempt to negotiate their entry in the European Union. The first part centers around an evaluation of the fiscal situation in these countries: its dynamic development, comparisons between these countries, and the wider European context. The second part investigates the relationship between fiscal policy and the overall success of economy-wide restructuring in terms of social expenditures and the role of fiscal policy in macroeconomic stabilization, including sterilization policies. This is a succinct yet comprehensive account of the fiscal situation in CEE, of interest to anyone concerned with the economics and politics of the region.
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