After explicating the analytical framework I will proceed to develop scenarios as follows: I. General scenarios -maladaptive and adaptive. 2. The future for the Western group of societies. Within this will seek to identify the main changes in the natures of work, leisure, family organisation, education and life styles. 3. The future for the major Asian powers, China, Japan and India. 4. A world scenario centred about the first two scenarios but also aimed to locate within this pattern the most probable future for sets of the smaller societies and under-developed countries. The scenarios will be developed in that order, for good reasons. Sociological forecasting has to deal, in the first instance, with sets of societies that are closely interdependent, each with the other. A scenario for Western societies generally is required before one can hope to write one for the individual countries, e.g. France, Australia, because they are not evolving independently. The widespread upsurge of student revolts in 1967-68 well illustrates this interdependence. Some writers, like Stevens (1970) have taken the U.S.A. as the model of the future for the other smaller Western societies. There is some justifi cation for this as the U.S. has certainly been the 'leading part' in the West for some decades. However, there is danger in assuming that that will persist. A change in the near future in the problems that commonly confront Western societies may make the U.S. example 'depasee', old hat, if not down-right misleading.
Forensic metrology is the application of scientific measurement to the investigation and prosecution of crime. Forensic measurements are relied upon to determine breath and blood alcohol and drug concentrations, weigh seized drugs, perform accident reconstruction, and for many other applications. Forensic metrology provides a basic framework for th
Exploration of the nature of human communication and the media is a pre requisite to any assessment of the likely future role of communications . . We cannot assume that the nature of these things is transparently obvious to everyone and therefore commonly understood. Three developments in recent decades should adequately warn against such an assumption. First, we had the fiasco of social scientists trying to apply Shannon's mathematical theory of information as if it were a theory of human communication. 'In Shannon's use of information we cannot speak of how much information a person has only how much a message has. ' (Ackoff and Emery, 1972, p. 145). They would not have wandered into that blind alley if they had stopped to think about the nature of human communication. Second was the belated but wholehearted acceptance of the Heider theory of balance and its subse quent wane. Its wane had nothing to do with its inherent merits. It waned because it could not survive on the Procrustean bed of the psychologists' theory of choice. It did not occur to the psychologists to question their as sumptions about how people made the choices that lead to purposeful com munication (Ackoff and Emery, 1972, p. 58). The last example has been the bitter and unended furore about McLuhan. This time the psychologists and sociologists haye been strangely quiet but we can be sure this does not imply acquiescence in McLuhan's views.
This comprehensive book provides detailed descriptions and analysis of the bond markets in eight East Asian developing economies: Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Drawing on the most recent data available, Emery assesses the strengths and weaknesses of each countrys bond market, concluding with comparisons of the eight countries bond markets. The book will be an invaluable reference for economists, policymakers, and all those interested in emerging capital markets. }Drawing on the most recent data available, this comprehensive book provides detailed descriptions and analysis of the bond markets in eight East Asian developing economies: Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand. Robert Emery devotes a full chapter to evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of each countrys bond market. For each country, Emery describes the history of the bond market and identifies its key participants, the different types of bonds, and the current terms for bond issues. He also discusses the size of the bond market, the bond issuing process, trading procedures and the structure of the market, the clearing and settlement system, and fees and taxes. Finally, he lists the regulators of the market, current regulations, and bond rating agencies; assesses the markets past performance; and offers suggestions for improvement.Each country chapter is organized into a standard format, making it easy for the reader to locate and compare specific information. Emery concludes the book with cross-country comparisons of the eight countries bond markets. It will be an invaluable reference for economists, policymakers, and all those interested in emerging capital markets. }
This title was first published in 2001. In 1997 the author was told, by an official at the Korean embassy in Washington DC, that the most serious economic problem facing Korea was the need for reform of the financial sector. This proved to be true, as a financial crisis hit Korea in November 1997. Though problems arising before November 1997 indicate that Korea's economic problems were not solely financial. This study covers earlier reform efforts, the 1997 crisis and the measures taken by Korea since then to deal with the country's economic problems. It attempts to analyze the problems and offer suggestions as to how problems might corrected or resolved.
The Classic Maya "collapse" has been attributed to environmental destruction, declining dietary health, and social changes such as increased warfare or changing economies. This study explores these models using ancient animal remains recovered from the Petexbatun archaeological sites. The species found in the Petexbatun faunal collections are compared as proxy evidence for the ancient habitats and landscapes that would have existed around the sites. They reveal that the ancient landscape of the Petexbatun region was not significantly deforested or otherwise destroyed at the end of the Classic period. Bone chemistry of archaeological deer bones confirms that there was no significant expanse of agricultural fields at the expense of forested lands over the occupation of the region. The animal remains are next used to test a related model for the Maya collapse: dietary failure. Comparisons of the remains of food species from residential deposits indicate that the Petexbatun Maya were in no danger of famine or protein deficiency--hey neither overhunted their animal resources nor destroyed their habitats to the extent that dietary species were no longer available. An intriguing deposit of worked animal bone from the capital city of Dos Pilas offers a clue to the puzzle. Here, following the abandonment of the site by the ruling elite, a family group manufactured quantities of utilitarian bone artifacts, probably for trade with other scattered communities in the region. This finding suggests the importance of re-evaluating socioeconomic causality for this transitional period in the Petexbatun and elsewhere in the southern Maya lowlands. VIMA Series #5
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