Evan Hillebrand's Books

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Eight Long-Range Scenarios

By: Evan Hillebrand,Stacy Closson

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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Eight Long-Range Scenarios

By: Evan Hillebrand,Stacy Closson

Eight varied scenarios, integrating a quantitative model and qualitative analysis, that examine the interplay of three key drivers over the next four decades. This book presents eight varied scenarios of possible global futures, emphasizing the interconnectedness of three drivers of change: energy prices, economic growth, and geopolitics. Other published global future scenarios focus on only one of these factors, viewing, for example, economic growth as unaffected by energy prices or energy prices in isolation from geopolitical conditions. In this book, Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson offer a new approach to scenario construction that acknowledges the codependence of these key drivers and integrates qualitative analysis with a quantitative model. The eight scenarios represent possible combinations of high or low energy prices, strong or weak economic growth, and global harmony or disharmony across three time periods: the 2010s, 2020 to 2040, and 2040 to 2050. The “Regional Mercantilism” scenario, for example, envisions high energy prices, weak economic growth, and global disharmony. To impose numerical consistency across scenarios, Hillebrand and Closson employ the International Futures (IFs) model developed by Barry Hughes. (Interested readers can download this interactive model to alter or build scenarios themselves.) Assessing the probability of each scenario, they conclude that increased U.S. energy supply and the sustainability of the Chinese growth miracle are the most significant drivers over the next forty years.

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Page Count

245

Publisher

MIT Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0262328739

ISBN 13

9780262328739

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Eight Long-Range Scenarios

By: Evan Hillebrand,Stacy Closson

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Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Eight Long-Range Scenarios

By: Evan Hillebrand,Stacy Closson

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245

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MIT Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0262328739

ISBN 13

9780262328739

Exploring and Shaping International Futures

By: Barry B. Hughes,Evan E. Hillebrand

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Exploring and Shaping International Futures

By: Barry B. Hughes,Evan E. Hillebrand

People who run cities like to play Simcity to find out how impossible their jobs are. Hughes gives everyone a chance to play a kind of Simplanet, with outcomes far more complex and uncertain. In the process, the book and the computer program provide a coherent path to understanding an anarchic world." --Ronald A. Francisco, University of Kansas "What will be the future of human demographic, economic, environmental, and political-social systems throughout the 21st century? Where do current changes appear to be taking us? What kind of future would we prefer? How much leverage do we have to bring about the future we prefer? Do YOU share these interests of the book? If yes, you should study the book and learn how to cope with the future with the International Futures approach (IFs) developed by the authors. This large-scale integrated global simulation modeling system is a user-friendly, professional tool for long-term policy analysis and an educational tool in universities. I had a pleasure to learn it personally by cooperating with Barry Hughes." --Pentti Malaska, Professor of MS, DrTech, futurist Honorary member of the Club of Rome What will be the long-term impact of AIDS in Africa or concentration of global oil production in the Middle East? Exploring and Shaping International Futures helps readers understand such global trends in demographic, economic, energy, food, environmental, and socio-political systems. It allows businesspeople, government officials, and others to think concretely about global futures in each of these areas. It is the only book on the market that allows readers to use a computer simulation to track global trends and to develop alternative scenarios around those trends. It is one of relatively few books that really brings computer technology into the classroom, boardroom, or policy planning commission. The International Futures (IFs) computer simulation, around which the book is built, is now widely used in policy analysis as well as education. It has been instrumental in projects undertaken by such groups as the European Commission, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, and the United Nations. After three decades of development and refinement, the computer model is now easy to access and use. Readers can access the website with the IFs computer model at www.ifs.du.edu

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Page Count

257

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1317259866

ISBN 13

9781317259862

Thunder in the East

The Nazi-Soviet War 1941-1945

By: Evan Mawdsley

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Thunder in the East

The Nazi-Soviet War 1941-1945

By: Evan Mawdsley

Thunder in the East, originally published in 2005, is widely regarded as the best short history of the entire Nazi-Soviet military conflict. It tells the story from the pre-war expectations of Hitler and Stalin, through the pivotal battles deep in Russia in 1942-43, and on to the huge Soviet offensives across Eastern Europe in 1944-45. This final 'march of liberation' destroyed the Third Reich and set Europe's history for the next 45 years. The book provides penetrating answers to vital questions: Why did the war in the East develop as it did? Why did Hitler's Wehrmacht lose? Why did the Red Army win, and why did the people of Soviet Russia pay such a high price for victory? The first edition took advantage of the flood of new sources that followed the end of the Soviet era. This second edition takes account of what has been written over the last decade; the Nazi-Soviet war, in all its aspects, has continued to be the subject of extensive and innovative research and heated controversy.

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Page Count

533

Publisher

Bloomsbury Publishing

Published Date

ISBN 10

1472510089

ISBN 13

9781472510082

Computing for Historians

An Introductory Guide

By: Evan Mawdsley,Thomas Munck

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Computing for Historians

An Introductory Guide

By: Evan Mawdsley,Thomas Munck

This guide is intended to introduce historians to some of the ways in which the computer revolution can be of benefit in dealing with their sources and presenting their findings.

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Page Count

264

Publisher

Manchester University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0719035481

ISBN 13

9780719035487

Baumann's Cosmetic Dermatology, Third Edition

By: Leslie S. Baumann,Evan A. Rieder,Mary D. Sun

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Baumann's Cosmetic Dermatology, Third Edition

By: Leslie S. Baumann,Evan A. Rieder,Mary D. Sun

The bestselling dermatology resource brings you fully up to date on the newest skin care procedures and treatments Popular for its comprehensive yet engaging style, Baumann's Cosmetic Dermatology covers the entire gamut of dermatology: the anatomy and physiology of skin and skin conditions, such as aging, dry and sensitive skin, and skin diseases, such as acne; skin types—essential information for every dermatologist; specific skin problems; cosmetic agents used for anti-aging, exfoliating, moisturizing, sun protection, and antioxidants; cosmetic procedures, with an emphasis on selected noninvasive procedures for office settings, and including soft tissue augmentation, chemical peel and hair removal, and comparison of cosmetic agents with drug; and skin care, including cutting-edge cosmetic techniques. Features • 414 photos and illustrations—more images than ever • NEW: The latest drugs and topical agents, including retinoids, moisturizing agents, antioxidants, depigmenting agents, vitamins, and herbals • NEW: The newest laser treatments, pulsed light techniques, varicose veins, and cosmeceuticals

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Page Count

682

Publisher

McGraw Hill Professional

Published Date

ISBN 10

0071800905

ISBN 13

9780071800907

Exploring and Shaping International Futures

By: Barry B. Hughes,Evan E. Hillebrand

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Exploring and Shaping International Futures

By: Barry B. Hughes,Evan E. Hillebrand

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Solve jigsaw puzzle

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Page Count

257

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1317259866

ISBN 13

9781317259862

Book's by Evan Hillebrand

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures

Exploring and Shaping International Futures

Exploring and Shaping International Futures

Thunder in the East

Thunder in the East

Computing for Historians

Computing for Historians

Baumann's Cosmetic Dermatology, Third Edition

Baumann's Cosmetic Dermatology, Third Edition

Exploring and Shaping International Futures

Exploring and Shaping International Futures

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