The report analyses Spain’s financial sector reform program and throws light on the role that the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) played in supporting the restructuring and recapitalization of its financial sector. It stated that the two major areas that have been looked at by IMF staff are the macrofinancial context and Spain’s progress in financial sector reforms. The key risk factors that hamper economic development are emphasized, and certain measures to overcome the same are suggested.
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Serbian economy is facing serious challenges. GDP contracted by an estimated 2 percent in 2014 on account of continued falling domestic demand aggravated by floods, and weak economic activity in trading partners. This, together with the low imported inflation, pushed Serbia’s inflation rate below the National Bank of Serbia’s inflation tolerance band, allowing some easing of monetary policy. To support their economic policies over 2015–17, the authorities have requested the IMF’s assistance. The program aims to restore public debt sustainability, strengthen competitiveness and growth, and boost financial sector resilience.
This paper presents an assessment of financial system stability in Belarus. The findings reveal that the state-dominated financial sector of Belarus confronts several critical challenges. Deep and long-standing structural problems and negative external spillovers are distorting the credit channel and overall financial stability. Financial sector contingent liabilities are on the rise, accentuating an already weak fiscal situation. The government is directing a large proportion of loans from state-owned banks to unhedged state-owned companies. Foreign currency liquidity risk is high, and transition to independent and risk-based oversight of the financial sector is urgently required.
This paper discusses Portugal’s Eighth and Ninth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Applicability of end-September Performance Criteria (PC). Program implementation has remained broadly on track, in spite of a political crisis and significant legal challenges. The medium term outlook remains broadly unchanged, with growth gradually increasing to near its underlying potential of 2 percent by 2017. The contribution from the net foreign balance is now projected to be some 0.2 percentage point higher over the medium term. The IMF Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the combined eighth and ninth reviews and for waivers of applicability of the end-September PCs.
This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of the impact of monetary policy on Luxembourg’s macroeconomy. It analyzes the impact on the banking system, including risks that could result from normalization. It also studies the impact of accommodative monetary policy on the investment fund industry. Accommodative monetary policy has contributed to the performance of the Luxembourg economy through some expansion of aggregate demand and through its impact on the financial system. Banks have remained profitable and interest margins stable, while fee and commission income from the fund and other activity has been healthy. The investment fund industry has benefited from various factors such as portfolio rebalancing, search for yield, and other market developments leading to strong inflows into various classes of investment funds, and through strong valuation effects. Scenario analysis suggests that the fund industry could be adversely impacted by sharp interest rate increases and that, because of interconnections, the banking system would also be affected.
This study aims to provide a better understanding of how cooperatives can contribute to the development of the agriculture sector and rural areas in Morocco and what policy changes and areas of investment could be considered to better enable this. It is dedicated to policy decision-makers, development partners and potential institutional investors in the agriculture sector in Morocco. The study seeks to provide answers to the following key research questions: (i) What are the distinctive features of cooperatives in Morocco? (ii) What role can cooperatives potentially play in the development of the agriculture sector and rural areas? (iii) How have current policies supported cooperatives in playing that role? and (iv) What are the opportunities to provide a more enabling environment for cooperative development? These questions are used as background to assess the policy and institutional environment in which cooperatives operate, to explain some of the current characteristics of cooperatives in Morocco, and finally to identify key opportunities and issues which should be addressed by policy decision-makers, development partners and investors, in order to benefit the agriculture sector as a whole.
For most citizens, buying a residential property (dwelling) is the most important transaction during their lifetime. Residential properties represent the most significant component of households’ expenses and, at the same time, their most valuable assets. The Residential Property Prices Indices (RPPIs) are index numbers measuring the rate at which the prices of residential properties are changing over time. RPPIs are key statistics not only for citizens and households across the world, but also for economic and monetary policy makers. Among their professional uses, they serve, for example, to monitor macroeconomic imbalances and risk exposure of the financial sector. This Handbook provides, for the first time, comprehensive guidelines for the compilation of RPPIs and explains in depth the methods and best practices used to calculate an RPPI. It also examines the underlying economic and statistical concepts and defines the principles guiding the methodological and practical choices for the compilation of the indices. The Handbook primarily addresses official statisticians in charge of producing residential property price indices; at the same time, it addresses the overall requirement on RPPIs by providing a harmonised methodological and practical framework to all parties interested in the compilation of such indices. The RPPIs Handbook has been written by leading academics in index number theory and by recognised experts in RPPIs compilation. Its development has been coordinated by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, with the collaboration of the International Labour Organization (ILO), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the World Bank.
A blueprint presents drawings, dimensions and notes. This report draws vivid pictures of the beneficiaries of European Investment Bank projects in 2023. It includes data on the dimensions of our massive overall investment and the importance of our loans to each of our beneficiaries during the year. It notes the EU policies and expertise that lead us to make each of our investments.
The Transition Report is a unique source of information on developments in central and eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Drawing on the EBRD's extensive experience in the region, the Report offers comprehensive analysis of progress in the transition to market economies.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Bulgaria achieved modest economic growth in 2014, which is expected to continue in 2015, albeit at a lower rate. Consumer prices declined by an average 1.6 percent in 2014, among the sharpest contractions in the European Union, but are projected to turn positive late in the year. The banking system has shown substantial resilience to the damage to confidence resulting from the bank failure. The budget targets a 3 percent of GDP deficit in 2015, and a further 0.5 percentage point reduction per year in coming years. Measures to improve the composition and quality of expenditure and mitigate contingent liabilities arising from state-owned enterprises remain the key.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ireland enjoyed strong growth in 2014, at about 5 percent year over year, led by exports and investment. Solid job creation has brought the unemployment rate down to 10.5 percent, from a peak of 15 percent three years ago. These positive economic developments drove higher than expected growth in revenues, helping bring the fiscal deficit down to an estimated 3.9 percent of GDP in 2014 despite some spending overruns. Looking to 2015, Ireland’s growth is expected to remain robust, at about 3.5 percent, bolstered by the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing. Consumption is beginning to support activity, aided by the impact of falling energy prices on real incomes.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the housing and business cycles in the United Kingdom. The UK housing cycle is highly volatile as a result of tight housing supply constraints and fluctuations in credit conditions. Housing supply-side constraints can be alleviated through changes to the planning system and tax reforms. The new National Planning Policy Framework introduced by the government is creating the incentives for local councils to increase available land for construction. There are early signs that this change in the planning system is contributing to the recovery in housing construction. Targeted macroprudential policies could address financial stability risks stemming from the housing market. Although mortgage credit as a share of gross domestic product has been declining in the current housing recovery, there are signs that there is a build-up of financial risks: loan-to-income ratios are increasing in London and among first time buyers.
This paper focuses on the following key issues of the Slovenian economy: export competitiveness, corporate financial health and investment, European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing, and financial sector development issues and prospects. Slovenia’s exports have been the main contributor to GDP growth in recent years. In particular, by 2015 exports of goods and services had increased by 20 percentage points of GDP compared to their postcrisis low in 2009. Preceding the global economic slump in 2008, bank credit in Slovenia fueled corporate investment. The past few years have witnessed substantial monetary easing by the ECB. With inflation running well below target, the ECB has been pursuing unconventional monetary policy-easing actions.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Israel’s economy has been doing well and near-term growth prospects are favorable. Following growth of 2.6 percent in 2014, the economy is expected to expand by about 2.5 percent in 2015 and 3–3.3 percent each year in the medium term. Employment creation has been remarkable—growing by 3.5 percent annually—and unemployment is at multi-decade lows. Inflation has been negative, but this trend reflects temporary external factors, not domestic weakness. Debt has declined to 67 percent of GDP from a peak of 94 percent of GDP in 2003 but is expected to increase for the first time since 2009, following the upward revisions to the deficit targets.
This Selected Issues paper on Cyprus models the evolution of the saving rate to help shed some light on its determinants, which could help inform medium-term projections. This paper suggests that household net wealth and unemployment are key determinants of the saving rate in Cyprus. Cypriot households dissaved in the period preceding the global crisis, as their wealth increased, and credit could be used to finance consumption. The data uncertainty, due to various data sources used and relatively short time-period may affect the regression results. Moreover, in the estimation, the endogeneity between household wealth and the saving rate, as well as between unemployment and the saving rate may have not been fully controlled through lags. Due to the lack of micro-level data, the analysis does not explore the distributional consideration with respect to wealth. Since wealth is likely distributed unevenly, high indebted households with limited wealth are likely to reduce their saving rate more than the average to support consumption in the face of economic stress. The forward-looking projections are also subject to considerable uncertainty and should be interpreted with care.
This paper discusses Kosovo’s Fifth Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement. All end-August 2013 and continuous performance criteria were met, as a renewed shortfall in customs collection was over-compensated by underexecution of spending. A prior action on issuing a government decision that specifies the nonallocation of €88 million across expenditure categories was also met. The applicable structural benchmarks were met on substance. Missed by small margins were the indicative targets on the nonaccumulation of domestic payments arrears by the central and general governments. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the fifth review under the Stand-By Arrangement.
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