Eugen Tereanu's Books

What Drives Mortgage Default Risk in Europe and the U.S.?

By: Mr. Marco Gross,Mr. Thierry Tressel,Xiaodan Ding,Eugen Tereanu

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What Drives Mortgage Default Risk in Europe and the U.S.?

By: Mr. Marco Gross,Mr. Thierry Tressel,Xiaodan Ding,Eugen Tereanu

We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance sheets and income-expense flow data from about 95,000 households and 230,000 household members from 21 EU countries and the U.S. We present country-specific nonlinear regressions based on the structural model simulation-implied relation between PDs and LGDs and their drivers. These can be used for macro scenario-conditional forecasting, without requiring the conduct of the micro simulation. We also present a policy counterfactual analysis of the responsiveness of mortgage PDs, LGDs, and bank capitalization conditional on adverse scenarios related to the COVID-19 pandemic across all countries. The economics of debt moratoria and guarantees are discussed against the background of the model-based analysis.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400205705

Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty

By: Eugen Tereanu,Ms.Anita Tuladhar,Mr.Alejandro Simone

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Structural Balance Targeting and Output Gap Uncertainty

By: Eugen Tereanu,Ms.Anita Tuladhar,Mr.Alejandro Simone

Potential output estimation plays a crucial role in conducting fiscal policy based on structural balances. Difficulties in estimating potential output could lead to an erroneous policy stance with a consequent impact on growth. This paper analyzes historical data on revisions of actual and potential growth in the European Union and the implication of these revisions for the measurement of fiscal effort using the cyclically-adjusted primary balance (CAPB). It finds that revisions in output gap estimates were large, at almost 11⁄2 percent of potential GDP on average. Revisions in potential GDP also contributed significantly to revisions in the estimated CAPB, especially during the crisis years. Given these findings and historical correlations, it proposes an indicative rule of thumb for reducing errors in the measurement of fiscal effort by factoring in that about 30 percent of revisions in actual growth capture changes in potential growth. In other words, the standard advice of “letting automatic stabilizers operate fully” in response to a positive/negative growth shocks likely implies a strengthening/weakening of the structural position.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498353401

ISBN 13

9781498353403

The Cost of Private Debt Over the Credit Cycle

By: Eugen Tereanu,Dilek Aykut,Johanna L. Francis

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The Cost of Private Debt Over the Credit Cycle

By: Eugen Tereanu,Dilek Aykut,Johanna L. Francis

We identify global and regional fluctuations in international private debt flows to emerging and developing countries using data on cross border loans and international bond issuance over 1993 -2009. We estimate the effects of individual borrower characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions on the cost of foreign borrowing and test whether these effects differ across phases of the lending cycle. We find that public and financial institutions benefit from lower spreads compared to private and nonfinancial firms and that lenders may differentiate the risk associated with the borrower’s industrial sector between good and bad times. The loan (bond) rating has an equally robust spread reduction effect across credit cycle phases. The results also suggest that international reserve holdings and investment ratios have a significant effect on reducing credit spreads for loans, while higher reserve holdings and longer maturities matter more for bond spreads.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455210900

ISBN 13

9781455210909

International Reserve Adequacy in the Gambia

By: Eugen Tereanu

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International Reserve Adequacy in the Gambia

By: Eugen Tereanu

This paper applies intertemporal models of precautionary saving to compute an optimal level of international reserves for The Gambia. The analysis focuses on current account shocks specific to a low-income economy with a significant import component and complements a more standard, rule-of-thumb reserve adequacy assessment. The results suggest a central range from 4.5 months to 7 months of imports, which is broadly aligned with the recent actual coverage. Notwithstanding parameter sensitivity, the simulations allow for more informed policy decisions that balance flexibility with a prudent approach to reserve use.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455208809

ISBN 13

9781455208807

“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”

By: Nicoletta Batini,Eugen Tereanu

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“What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?”

By: Nicoletta Batini,Eugen Tereanu

After a long period of global price stability, in 2008 inflation increased sharply following unprecedented increases in the price of oil and other commodities, notably food. Although inflation remained lower and growth higher in inflation targeting countries than elsewhere, almost everywhere price stability seemed in jeopardy as consumer prices kept surging and central banks struggled to maintain expectations anchored. The rapid drop in energy and food prices that later accompanied the world slowdown helped avert the worse, but inflation stayed high in many inflation targeting countries. This paper uses a small open-economy DSGE model to design the correct monetary policy response to a protracted supply shock of the kind observed today, and explains how to choose optimal policy horizons under such shock. Using a version of the model with Kalman learning, the paper also evaluates the implications of a loss of target credibility, showing how rules must be adjusted when the authorities' commitment to low inflation has been eroded. The appropriate response to future evolutions of the price of oil, including to a large downward correction as recently observed, is also evaluated.

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