Eswar S. Prasad's Books

The Dollar Trap

How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance

By: Eswar S. Prasad

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The Dollar Trap

How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance

By: Eswar S. Prasad

Why the dollar is—and will remain—the dominant global currency The U.S. dollar's dominance seems under threat. The near collapse of the U.S. financial system in 2008–2009, political paralysis that has blocked effective policymaking, and emerging competitors such as the Chinese renminbi have heightened speculation about the dollar’s looming displacement as the main reserve currency. Yet, as The Dollar Trap powerfully argues, the financial crisis, a dysfunctional international monetary system, and U.S. policies have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance. Eswar Prasad examines how the dollar came to have a central role in the world economy and demonstrates that it will remain the cornerstone of global finance for the foreseeable future. Marshaling a range of arguments and data, and drawing on the latest research, Prasad shows why it will be difficult to dislodge the dollar-centric system. With vast amounts of foreign financial capital locked up in dollar assets, including U.S. government securities, other countries now have a strong incentive to prevent a dollar crash. Prasad takes the reader through key contemporary issues in international finance—including the growing economic influence of emerging markets, the currency wars, the complexities of the China-U.S. relationship, and the role of institutions like the International Monetary Fund—and offers new ideas for fixing the flawed monetary system. Readers are also given a rare look into some of the intrigue and backdoor scheming in the corridors of international finance. The Dollar Trap offers a panoramic analysis of the fragile state of global finance and makes a compelling case that, despite all its flaws, the dollar will remain the ultimate safe-haven currency.

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439

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Princeton University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1400873649

ISBN 13

9781400873647

Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar Prasad

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Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar Prasad

China's currency, the renminbi, has taken the world by storm. This book documents the renminbi's impressive rise to global prominence in a short period but also shows how much further it has to go before becoming a major international currency. The hype about its inevitable ascendance to global dominance is overblown.

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345

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Oxford University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0190631058

ISBN 13

9780190631055

Global Business Cycles

Convergence or Decoupling?

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Christopher Otrok,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Global Business Cycles

Convergence or Decoupling?

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Christopher Otrok,Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451870019

ISBN 13

9781451870015

Emerging Markets

Resilience and Growth amid Global Turmoil

By: Eswar S. Prasad,Ayhan Kose

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Emerging Markets

Resilience and Growth amid Global Turmoil

By: Eswar S. Prasad,Ayhan Kose

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have become the darlings of international investors and the focus of enormous attention in academic, media, and policy circles. M. Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad present the definitive account of the evolution of EMEs and use the lens of the global financial crisis to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. Led by a set of large and dynamic countries—including Brazil, China, India, and Russia—EMEs have become a dominant presence in the world economy. They now account for a substantial share of world output and have been a major driver of global growth during the past decade. They are significant players in international trade and financial flows and are beginning to exert rising clout in global policy debates. However, the financial crisis of 2007–09 and the worldwide recession that followed cast a pall over the notion that EMEs had become self-reliant and "decoupled" from demand conditions in and financial flows from advanced countries. Kose and Prasad, prominent experts on emerging market economies and globalization, draw on their extensive research to assess the resilience of EMEs in the face of the global financial crisis. Their analysis shows that EMEs, as a group, weathered the crisis much better than the advanced countries, and most of these economies have bounced back rapidly from the global recession. The authors track down the reasons for this resilience and explain why some countries in this group have done better than others. Based on this analysis, they draw lessons for the durability and sustainability of these economies' long-term growth. This book is important reading for anyone trying to anticipate the future growth of emerging markets or contemplating business opportunities in these economies.

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225

Publisher

Rowman & Littlefield

Published Date

ISBN 10

0815705654

ISBN 13

9780815705659

The Financial Crisis and the Future of the US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency

By: Eswar S. Prasad

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The Financial Crisis and the Future of the US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency

By: Eswar S. Prasad

In early 2009, the world economy seemed to be headed toward irreversible decline. However, it appears that a strong dose of stimulative monetary and fiscal policy has succeeded in stabilizing the financial system and setting the stage for global recovery. But while the overall sense of doom has been replaced by one of hope, the recovery has been highly uneven. The US economy, which was at the epicenter of the crisis, still faces a long hard slog in returning to sustained growth and lower unemployment, and the continental European economies have bounced back but are unlikely to record high growth. Emerging markets are another story altogether, with China and India in particular returning to remarkably high growth since the end of 2008. The deep irony is that this pattern of recovery is setting the stage for a resurgence of the very same global macroeconomic imbalances which contributed to the onset of the crisis in the first place. While the root causes of the financial crisis lie in weak regulatory systems and failures, global imbalances permitted the problems to fester and then blow up in our faces. The dollar’s role in the global reserve pool clearly has major implications for its long-term value. Reserve accumulation by countries in the Middle East depends to a large extent on the price of oil. The other region that is likely to play a crucial role is Asia. China and other Asian emerging markets have played a dominant role in the expansion of the global reserve pool over the last decade. Restoring and maintaining global financial stability will require decisive policy actions from a number of different actors. The United States needs to get its fiscal house in order. It is premature for the United States to pull back fiscal stimuli, but a well-articulated plan that lays out a path for restoring fiscal stability is essential. Meanwhile, the G20 has taken impressive steps to coordinate global stimulus efforts, make progress on financial regulatory reform, and increase the stability of the global financial system. Ultimately, substantive actions by national governments, rather than just lofty sentiments, are needed to deal with the difficult challenges identified under this framework.

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Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research

Published Date

ISBN 10

994814354X

ISBN 13

9789948143543

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy

An Empirical Exploration

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

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Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy

An Empirical Exploration

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical comovement among industrialized countries over time. However, for emerging market economies, financial globalization appears to have been associated, on average, with an increase in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their corresponding world aggregates.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451875878

ISBN 13

9781451875874

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries

Some Stylized Facts

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Pierre-Richard Agénor,Mr.C. John McDermott

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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries

Some Stylized Facts

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Pierre-Richard Agénor,Mr.C. John McDermott

This paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries. Cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including fiscal variables, wages, inflation, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates) are presented. Also analyzed are the effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries. The robustness of the results is examined using different detrending procedures. The results indicate many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (procyclical real wages; countercyclical variation in government expenditure) and some important differences (countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates).

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451845332

ISBN 13

9781451845334

The Italian Labor Market

Stylized Facts, Institutions, and Directions for Reform

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Ms.Francesca Utili

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The Italian Labor Market

Stylized Facts, Institutions, and Directions for Reform

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Ms.Francesca Utili

This paper provides a synthesis of existing and new empirical perspectives on the structure of the Italian labor market, using data at different levels of disaggregation. The analysis indicates that aggregate data mask considerable disparities in labor market outcomes across regions and demographic groups. The evolutions of sectoral wage and employment structures also point to some dimensions of labor market rigidities. A micro data set with individual data is then used to highlight key structural problems that affect labor supply and demand. The implications of these different strands of empirical analysis for the formulation and effective implementation of labor market policy are then discussed.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451975910

ISBN 13

9781451975918

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

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Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major results: First, while the volatility of output growth has, on average, declined in the 1990s relative to the three preceding decades, we also document that, on average, the volatility of consumption growth relative to that of income growth has increased for more financially integrated developing economies in the 1990s. Second, increasing financial openness is associated with rising relative volatility of consumption, but only up to a certain threshold. The benefits of financial integration in terms of improved risk-sharing and consumption-smoothing possibilities appear to accrue only beyond this threshold.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451846991

ISBN 13

9781451846997

Labor Market Adjustment in Canada and the United States

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Alun H. Thomas

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Labor Market Adjustment in Canada and the United States

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Alun H. Thomas

This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of different labor market adjustment mechanisms in Canada and the United States and also examines the effects of the unemployment insurance (UI) system on labor market adjustment. At the aggregate level, employment growth shocks result in similar unemployment rate responses but smaller wage responses in Canada relative to the United States. Although overall UI generosity has increased aggregate unemployment persistence in Canada, the endogenous component of UI has affected unemployment persistence only marginally. The lower degree of aggregate real wage flexibility in Canada has not been an important determinant of unemployment persistence.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451841728

ISBN 13

9781451841725

Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregation Bias Over the Business Cycle

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregation Bias Over the Business Cycle

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper extends the equilibrium business cycle framework to incorporate ex ante skill heterogeneity among workers. Consistent with the empirical evidence, skilled and unskilled workers in the model face the same degree of cyclical variation in real wages although unskilled workers are subject to substantially higher procyclical variation in employment. Systematic cyclical changes in the average skill level of employed workers are shown to induce bias in aggregate measures of cyclical variation in the labor input, productivity, and the real wage. The introduction of skill heterogeneity improves the model’s ability to match the empirical correlation between total hours and the real wage but the correlation between total hours and labor productivity remains higher than in the data.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451854439

ISBN 13

9781451854435

International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Jeffery A. Gable

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International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Jeffery A. Gable

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

145185854X

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9781451858549

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

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How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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1451844549

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9781451844542

Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries

Some Empirical Evidence

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Kenneth Rogoff,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Shang-Jin Wei

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Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries

Some Empirical Evidence

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Kenneth Rogoff,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Shang-Jin Wei

This study provides a candid, systematic, and critical review of recent evidence on this complex subject. Based on a review of the literature and some new empirical evidence, it finds that (1) in spite of an apparently strong theoretical presumption, it is difficult to detect a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and economic growth; (2) contrary to theoretical predictions, financial integration appears to be associated with increases in consumption volatility (both in absolute terms and relative to income volatility) in many developing countries; and (3) there appear to be threshold effects in both of these relationships, which may be related to absorptive capacity. Some recent evidence suggests that sound macroeconomic frameworks and, in particular, good governance are both quantitatively and qualitatively important in affecting developing countries’ experiences with financial globalization.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1589062213

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9781589062214

The Future of Money

How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance

By: Eswar S. Prasad

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The Future of Money

How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance

By: Eswar S. Prasad

An Economist Best Book of the Year A Financial Times Best Book of the Year A Foreign Affairs Best Book of the Year A ProMarket Best Political Economy Book of the Year One of The Week’s Ten Best Business Books of the Year A cutting-edge look at how accelerating financial change, from the end of cash to the rise of cryptocurrencies, will transform economies for better and worse. We think we’ve seen financial innovation. We bank from laptops and buy coffee with the wave of a phone. But these are minor miracles compared with the dizzying experiments now underway around the globe, as businesses and governments alike embrace the possibilities of new financial technologies. As Eswar Prasad explains, the world of finance is at the threshold of major disruption that will affect corporations, bankers, states, and indeed all of us. The transformation of money will fundamentally rewrite how ordinary people live. Above all, Prasad foresees the end of physical cash. The driving force won’t be phones or credit cards but rather central banks, spurred by the emergence of cryptocurrencies to develop their own, more stable digital currencies. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies themselves will evolve unpredictably as global corporations like Meta and Amazon join the game. The changes will be accompanied by snowballing innovations that are reshaping finance and have already begun to revolutionize how we invest, trade, insure, and manage risk. Prasad shows how these and other changes will redefine the very concept of money, unbundling its traditional functions as a unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value. The promise lies in greater efficiency and flexibility, increased sensitivity to the needs of diverse consumers, and improved market access for the unbanked. The risk is instability, lack of accountability, and erosion of privacy. A lucid, visionary work, The Future of Money shows how to maximize the best and guard against the worst of what is to come.

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497

Publisher

Harvard University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0674270088

ISBN 13

9780674270084

Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

China has achieved tremendous economic progress in the last three decades, but there is much work to be done to make the economy resilient to large shocks, ensure the sustainability of its growth, and translate this growth into corresponding improvements in the economic welfare of its citizens. We discuss the complex challenges that Chinese policymakers face in striking the right balance in terms of speed and coordination of reforms. We argue that China's current stage of development, along with its rising market orientation and increasing integration with the world economy, may make the incremental and piecemeal approaches to reforms increasingly untenable and, in some cases, could even generate risks of their own. The present favorable domestic and external circumstances provide an excellent window of opportunity for bolder reforms and for tackling some deep-rooted problems without causing much economic disruption.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451946147

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9781451946147

The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows

Patterns and Possible Explanations

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Shang-Jin Wei

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The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows

Patterns and Possible Explanations

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Shang-Jin Wei

In this paper, we adopt a cross-country perspective to examine the evolution of capital flows into China, both in terms of volumes and composition. China's inflows have generally been dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI), a pattern that appears to be favorable in light of the recent literature on the experiences of developing countries with financial globalization. We provide a detailed documentation of the evolution of China's capital controls, a proximate determinant of the pattern of capital inflows. We also discuss a number of other intriguing hypotheses that attempt to capture the "deeper" causes underlying China's approach to capital flows. In particular, we argue that some popular mercantilist-type arguments are inconsistent with the facts. We also analyze the recent rapid rise of China's international reserves and discuss its implications. Contrary to some popular perceptions, the dramatic surge in foreign exchange reserves since 2001 is mainly attributable to non-FDI capital inflows, rather than current account surpluses or FDI.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451860986

ISBN 13

9781451860986

Controlled Capital Account Liberalization

A Proposal

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Controlled Capital Account Liberalization

A Proposal

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

In this paper, we develop a proposal for a controlled approach to capital account liberalization for economies experiencing large capital inflows. The proposal essentially involves securitizing a portion of capital inflows through closed-end mutual funds that issue shares in domestic currency, use the proceeds to purchase foreign exchange from the central bank and then invest the proceeds abroad. This would eliminate the fiscal costs of sterilizing those inflows, give domestic investors opportunities for international portfolio diversification and stimulate the development of domestic financial markets. More importantly, it would allow central banks to control both the timing and quantity of capital outflows. This proposal could be part of a broader toolkit of measures to liberalize the capital account cautiously when external circumstances are favorable. It is not a substitute for other necessary policies such as strengthening of the domestic financial sector or, in some cases, greater exchange rate flexibility. But it could in fact help create a supportive environment for these essential reforms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451975740

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9781451975741

Hong Kong SAR

Meeting the Challenges of Integration with the Mainland

By: Mr.William Lee,Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau,Ms.Dora M. Iakova,Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye,Ms.Tao Wang,Ida Liu,Ms.Hong Liang,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Hong Kong SAR

Meeting the Challenges of Integration with the Mainland

By: Mr.William Lee,Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau,Ms.Dora M. Iakova,Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye,Ms.Tao Wang,Ida Liu,Ms.Hong Liang,Mr.Eswar Prasad

This Occasional Paper provides an overview of the main challenges facing Hong Kong SAR as it continues to become more closely integrated with the mainland of China. Section I provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments and the main policy issues in Hong Kong SAR. Section II examines various aspects of the ongoing integration with the mainland, and the associated implications for the structure of the economy, and for macroeconomic and structural policies. Section III examines the medium-term fiscal outlook under different policy scenarios and discusses alternative policy options to restore fiscal balance. Section IV reviews recent developments in the real estate sector and their macroeconomic impacts. Section V presents an econome tric analysis of deflation and its determinants. Section VI examines the factors behind, and the implications of, rising wage inequality in Hong Kong SAR. Section VII presents an overview of recent developments in the financial sector and provides an assessment of Hong Kong SAR’s prospects as an international financial center.

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International Monetary Fund

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1589062949

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9781589062948

Perspectives on Regional Unemployment in Europe

By: Mr.Paolo Mauro,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo

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Perspectives on Regional Unemployment in Europe

By: Mr.Paolo Mauro,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Antonio Spilimbergo

The third stage of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was implemented in January 1999 against the specter of persistently high unemployment in many of the participating countries. While the high European unemployment has received considerable attention, this new IMF staff study analyzes an equally important issue: the extent of regional unemployment disparities in certain countries. The paper focuses on large and persistent differences in regional unemployment rates within several European countries. The paper includes detailed case studies of two euro area countries where regional disparities in unemployment are striking- Italy and Spain. The studies emphasize that wages are unresponsive to local labor market conditions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

155775800X

ISBN 13

9781557758002

Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar S. Prasad

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Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar S. Prasad

In Gaining Currency, leading China scholar Eswar S. Prasad describes how the renminbi (RMB) is taking the world by storm and explains its role in reshaping global finance. This book sets the recent rise of the RMB, China's currency since 1949, against a sweeping historical backdrop. China issued the world's first paper currency in the 7th century. In the 13th century, Kublai Khan issued the first-ever currency to circulate widely despite not being backed by commodities or precious metals. China also experienced some of the earliest episodes of hyperinflation currency wars. Gaining Currency reveals the interconnections linking China's growing economic might, its expanding international influence, and the rise of its currency. If China plays its cards right by adopting reforms that put its economy and financial markets on the right track, the RMB could rival even the euro and the Japanese yen. Prasad shows, however, that while China has successfully adopted a unique playbook for promoting the RMB, many pitfalls lie ahead for its economy and currency that could limit the RMB's ascendance. The Chinese leadership is pursuing financial liberalization and limited market-oriented reforms, but it has unequivocally repudiated political, legal, and institutional reforms. Therefore, Prasad argues, while the RMB is likely to become a significant reserve currency, it will not attain "safe haven" status as a currency to which investors turn during crises. In short, the hype predicting the RMB's inevitable rise to global dominance is overblown. Gaining Currency makes a compelling case that, for all its promise, the RMB does not pose a serious challenge to the U.S. dollar's dominance in international finance.

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345

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Oxford University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0190631074

ISBN 13

9780190631079

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