Eswar Prasad's Books

Regional Integration in West Africa

Is There a Role for a Single Currency?

By: Eswar Prasad,Vera Songwe

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Regional Integration in West Africa

Is There a Role for a Single Currency?

By: Eswar Prasad,Vera Songwe

Assessing the potential benefits and risks of a currency union Leaders of the fifteen-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have set a goal of achieving a monetary and currency union by late 2020. Although some progress has been made toward achieving this ambitious goal, major challenges remain if the region is to realize the necessary macroeconomic convergence and establish the required institutional framework in a relatively short period of time. The proposed union offers many potential benefits, especially for countries with historically high inflation rates and weak central banks. But, as implementation of the euro over the past two decades has shown, folding multiple currencies, representing disparate economies, into a common union comes with significant costs, along with operational challenges and transitional risks. All these potential negatives must be considered carefully by ECOWAS leaders seeking tomeet a self-imposed deadline. This book, by two leading experts on economics and Africa, makes a significant analytical contribution to the debates now under way about how ECOWAS could achieve and manage its currency union, andthe ramifications for the African continent.

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203

Publisher

Brookings Institution Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0815738544

ISBN 13

9780815738541

AI-DRIVEN DATA ENGINEERING TRANSFORMING BIG DATA INTO ACTIONABLE INSIGHT

By: Eswar Prasad Galla,Chandrababu Kuraku,Hemanth Kumar Gollangi,Janardhana Rao Sunkara,Chandrakanth Rao Madhavaram

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AI-DRIVEN DATA ENGINEERING TRANSFORMING BIG DATA INTO ACTIONABLE INSIGHT

By: Eswar Prasad Galla,Chandrababu Kuraku,Hemanth Kumar Gollangi,Janardhana Rao Sunkara,Chandrakanth Rao Madhavaram

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237

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JEC PUBLICATION

ISBN 10

9361758756

ISBN 13

9789361758751

What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

By: Rahul Anand,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Boyang Zhang

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What Measure of Inflation Should a Developing Country Central Bank Target?

By: Rahul Anand,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Boyang Zhang

In closed or open economy models with complete markets, targeting core inflation enables monetary policy to maximize welfare by replicating the flexible price equilibrium. We analyze this result in the context of developing economies, where a large proportion of households are credit constrained and the share of food expenditures in total consumption expenditures is high. We develop an open economy model with incomplete financial markets to show that headline inflation targeting improves welfare outcomes. We also compute the optimal price index, which includes a positive weight on food prices but, unlike headline inflation, assigns zero weight to import prices.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513572571

ISBN 13

9781513572574

Labor Market Aspects of Industrial Restructuring in Canada

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Labor Market Aspects of Industrial Restructuring in Canada

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad

This note examines recent developments in the Canadian labor market to provide a partial assessment of the magnitude and nature of industrial restructuring in Canada. The implications of industrial restructuring for the medium- and long-term prospects for the Canadian economy are examined. The evidence presented in this note suggests that the recent increases in labor productivity may represent a cyclical phenomenon rather than a permanent increase in the rate of growth of productivity.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451851464

ISBN 13

9781451851465

Shocks and Structural Breaks

Labor Market Reforms in the United Kingdom

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy

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Shocks and Structural Breaks

Labor Market Reforms in the United Kingdom

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Ramana Ramaswamy

This paper analyzes the effects of the labor market reforms launched in the early 1980s by the Conservative government led by Mrs. Thatcher. It is argued that the increase in the growth of labor productivity in manufacturing after 1980 as well as the improvement in the responsiveness of employment to variations in output can be largely attributed to the success of the reforms in reducing industrial disputes and removing a number of structural impediments in the labor market. However, the reforms did not succeed in moderating real wage growth or improving the tradeoff between wage inflation and unemployment. This is attributed to certain aspects of the wage bargaining system and the influence of relative wage norms in the process of wage determination.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451922655

ISBN 13

9781451922653

How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

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How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451844549

ISBN 13

9781451844542

Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries

Some Stylized Facts

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Pierre-Richard Agénor,Mr.C. John McDermott

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Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries

Some Stylized Facts

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Pierre-Richard Agénor,Mr.C. John McDermott

This paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries. Cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including fiscal variables, wages, inflation, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates) are presented. Also analyzed are the effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries. The robustness of the results is examined using different detrending procedures. The results indicate many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (procyclical real wages; countercyclical variation in government expenditure) and some important differences (countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates).

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451845332

ISBN 13

9781451845334

Are Prices Countercyclical?

By: Mr.Bankim Chadha,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Are Prices Countercyclical?

By: Mr.Bankim Chadha,Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper examines the comovement of prices with the cyclical component of output. It argues that determining the cyclical behavior of prices by applying the same stationarity-inducing transformation to the levels of both output and prices, and examining the correlations of the resulting series, can be misleading. A more appropriate procedure is to examine the correlations between the rate of inflation and the level of the cyclical component of output. In post-war U.S. data the correlations between similarly transformed price and output data are consistently and often strongly negative, as reported recently by a number of authors as evidence of countercyclical price behavior. The rate of inflation, however, is consistently and usually strongly positively correlated with various measures of the cyclical component of output.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451851073

ISBN 13

9781451851076

Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy

An Empirical Exploration

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

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Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy

An Empirical Exploration

By: Mr.Ayhan Kose,Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Marco Terrones

This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a significant decline in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations and a slight increase in the degree of cyclical comovement among industrialized countries over time. However, for emerging market economies, financial globalization appears to have been associated, on average, with an increase in macroeconomic volatility as well as declines in the degree of comovement of output and consumption growth with their corresponding world aggregates.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451875878

ISBN 13

9781451875874

Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations

A New Approach

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Robin L. Lumsdaine

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Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations

A New Approach

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Robin L. Lumsdaine

This paper develops an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also captures the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. Correlations of individual country fluctuations with the common component provide evidence of a “world business cycle” and a distinct European common component. The results suggest that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the post–Bretton Woods period.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451857217

ISBN 13

9781451857214

Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar Prasad

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Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar Prasad

China's currency, the renminbi, has taken the world by storm. This book documents the renminbi's impressive rise to global prominence in a short period but also shows how much further it has to go before becoming a major international currency. The hype about its inevitable ascendance to global dominance is overblown.

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345

Publisher

Oxford University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0190631058

ISBN 13

9780190631055

The Financial Crisis and the Future of the US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency

By: Eswar S. Prasad

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The Financial Crisis and the Future of the US Dollar as the Global Reserve Currency

By: Eswar S. Prasad

In early 2009, the world economy seemed to be headed toward irreversible decline. However, it appears that a strong dose of stimulative monetary and fiscal policy has succeeded in stabilizing the financial system and setting the stage for global recovery. But while the overall sense of doom has been replaced by one of hope, the recovery has been highly uneven. The US economy, which was at the epicenter of the crisis, still faces a long hard slog in returning to sustained growth and lower unemployment, and the continental European economies have bounced back but are unlikely to record high growth. Emerging markets are another story altogether, with China and India in particular returning to remarkably high growth since the end of 2008. The deep irony is that this pattern of recovery is setting the stage for a resurgence of the very same global macroeconomic imbalances which contributed to the onset of the crisis in the first place. While the root causes of the financial crisis lie in weak regulatory systems and failures, global imbalances permitted the problems to fester and then blow up in our faces. The dollar’s role in the global reserve pool clearly has major implications for its long-term value. Reserve accumulation by countries in the Middle East depends to a large extent on the price of oil. The other region that is likely to play a crucial role is Asia. China and other Asian emerging markets have played a dominant role in the expansion of the global reserve pool over the last decade. Restoring and maintaining global financial stability will require decisive policy actions from a number of different actors. The United States needs to get its fiscal house in order. It is premature for the United States to pull back fiscal stimuli, but a well-articulated plan that lays out a path for restoring fiscal stability is essential. Meanwhile, the G20 has taken impressive steps to coordinate global stimulus efforts, make progress on financial regulatory reform, and increase the stability of the global financial system. Ultimately, substantive actions by national governments, rather than just lofty sentiments, are needed to deal with the difficult challenges identified under this framework.

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Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research

Published Date

ISBN 10

994814354X

ISBN 13

9789948143543

Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

China has achieved tremendous economic progress in the last three decades, but there is much work to be done to make the economy resilient to large shocks, ensure the sustainability of its growth, and translate this growth into corresponding improvements in the economic welfare of its citizens. We discuss the complex challenges that Chinese policymakers face in striking the right balance in terms of speed and coordination of reforms. We argue that China's current stage of development, along with its rising market orientation and increasing integration with the world economy, may make the incremental and piecemeal approaches to reforms increasingly untenable and, in some cases, could even generate risks of their own. The present favorable domestic and external circumstances provide an excellent window of opportunity for bolder reforms and for tackling some deep-rooted problems without causing much economic disruption.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451946147

ISBN 13

9781451946147

The Future of Money

How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance

By: Eswar S. Prasad

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The Future of Money

How the Digital Revolution Is Transforming Currencies and Finance

By: Eswar S. Prasad

A cutting-edge look at how accelerating financial change, from the end of cash to the rise of cryptocurrencies, will transform economies for better and worse. We think weÕve seen financial innovation. We bank from laptops and buy coffee with the wave of a phone. But these are minor miracles compared with the dizzying experiments now underway around the globe, as businesses and governments alike embrace the possibilities of new financial technologies. As Eswar Prasad explains, the world of finance is at the threshold of major disruption that will affect corporations, bankers, states, and indeed all of us. The transformation of money will fundamentally rewrite how ordinary people live. Above all, Prasad foresees the end of physical cash. The driving force wonÕt be phones or credit cards but rather central banks, spurred by the emergence of cryptocurrencies to develop their own, more stable digital currencies. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies themselves will evolve unpredictably as global corporations like Facebook and Amazon join the game. The changes will be accompanied by snowballing innovations that are reshaping finance and have already begun to revolutionize how we invest, trade, insure, and manage risk. Prasad shows how these and other changes will redefine the very concept of money, unbundling its traditional functions as a unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value. The promise lies in greater efficiency and flexibility, increased sensitivity to the needs of diverse consumers, and improved market access for the unbanked. The risk is instability, lack of accountability, and erosion of privacy. A lucid, visionary work, The Future of Money shows how to maximize the best and guard against the worst of what is to come.

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497

Publisher

Harvard University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0674258444

ISBN 13

9780674258440

Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar S. Prasad

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Gaining Currency

The Rise of the Renminbi

By: Eswar S. Prasad

In Gaining Currency, leading China scholar Eswar S. Prasad describes how the renminbi (RMB) is taking the world by storm and explains its role in reshaping global finance. This book sets the recent rise of the RMB, China's currency since 1949, against a sweeping historical backdrop. China issued the world's first paper currency in the 7th century. In the 13th century, Kublai Khan issued the first-ever currency to circulate widely despite not being backed by commodities or precious metals. China also experienced some of the earliest episodes of hyperinflation currency wars. Gaining Currency reveals the interconnections linking China's growing economic might, its expanding international influence, and the rise of its currency. If China plays its cards right by adopting reforms that put its economy and financial markets on the right track, the RMB could rival even the euro and the Japanese yen. Prasad shows, however, that while China has successfully adopted a unique playbook for promoting the RMB, many pitfalls lie ahead for its economy and currency that could limit the RMB's ascendance. The Chinese leadership is pursuing financial liberalization and limited market-oriented reforms, but it has unequivocally repudiated political, legal, and institutional reforms. Therefore, Prasad argues, while the RMB is likely to become a significant reserve currency, it will not attain "safe haven" status as a currency to which investors turn during crises. In short, the hype predicting the RMB's inevitable rise to global dominance is overblown. Gaining Currency makes a compelling case that, for all its promise, the RMB does not pose a serious challenge to the U.S. dollar's dominance in international finance.

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345

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Oxford University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0190631074

ISBN 13

9780190631079

Changes in the Relationship Between the Long-Term Interest Rate and its Determinants

By: Mr.William Lee,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Changes in the Relationship Between the Long-Term Interest Rate and its Determinants

By: Mr.William Lee,Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper assesses the relative importance of alternative explanations for the rise in long-term interest rates in the United States from October 1993 to April 1994. Standard econometric models of the term structure are shown to have a structural break in the early 1980s. An important reason for this change in the traditional term structure relationship appears to be an increase in the responsiveness of long-term rates to changes in the stance of monetary policy. Augmented term structure models that explicitly incorporate the role of monetary policy in determining the level of long-term rates are then constructed. These models track variations in the long-term rate better than traditional term structure models, but still leave a significant fraction of the recent increase in long-term rates unexplained.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

145185465X

ISBN 13

9781451854657

Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment

Some New Empirical Evidence

By: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Currency Unions, Economic Fluctuations, and Adjustment

Some New Empirical Evidence

By: Mr.Tamim Bayoumi,Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper examines the sources of disturbances to output in the United States and a set of EU countries and analyzes labor market adjustment mechanisms in these two economic areas. Comparable datasets comprising 1-digit sectoral data for eight U.S. regions and eight European countries are constructed and used to compare the degree of industrial diversification and the relative importance of different sources of shocks to output growth. Both areas are found to be subject to similar overall disturbances although a disaggregated perspective reveals some important differences. The major difference, however, is in labor market adjustment. Interregional labor mobility appears to be a much more important adjustment mechanism in the United States, which has a more integrated labor market than the EU.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451955162

ISBN 13

9781451955163

AI-DRIVEN DATA ENGINEERING TRANSFORMING BIG DATA INTO ACTIONABLE INSIGHT

By: Eswar Prasad Galla,Chandrababu Kuraku,Hemanth Kumar Gollangi,Janardhana Rao Sunkara,Chandrakanth Rao Madhavaram

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AI-DRIVEN DATA ENGINEERING TRANSFORMING BIG DATA INTO ACTIONABLE INSIGHT

By: Eswar Prasad Galla,Chandrababu Kuraku,Hemanth Kumar Gollangi,Janardhana Rao Sunkara,Chandrakanth Rao Madhavaram

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237

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JEC PUBLICATION

ISBN 10

9361758756

ISBN 13

9789361758751

Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China

By: Mr.Marcos Chamon,Kai Liu,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China

By: Mr.Marcos Chamon,Kai Liu,Mr.Eswar Prasad

China’s household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped. We find that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms help explain both of these phenomena. Using a panel of Chinese households covering the period 1989-2006, we document that strong average income growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in income uncertainty. Interestingly, the permanent variance of household income remains stable while it is the transitory variance that rises sharply. A calibration of a buffer-stock savings model indicates that rising savings rates among younger households are consistent with rising income uncertainty and higher saving rates among older households are consistent with a decline in the pension replacement ratio for those retiring after 1997. We conclude that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms can account for over half of the increase in the urban household savings rate in China since the mid-1990s as well as the U-shaped age-profile of savings.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1455211702

ISBN 13

9781455211708

Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations

A New Approach

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Robin L. Lumsdaine

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Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations

A New Approach

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Robin L. Lumsdaine

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451857217

ISBN 13

9781451857214

THE FUTURE OF CLOUD: INTEGRATING AI, ML, AND GENERATIVE AI FOR SCALABLE SOLUTIONS

By: Chandrakanth Rao Madhavaram,Janardhana Rao Sunkara,Chandrababu Kuraku,Eswar Prasad Galla,HEMANTH KUMAR GOLLANGI

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THE FUTURE OF CLOUD: INTEGRATING AI, ML, AND GENERATIVE AI FOR SCALABLE SOLUTIONS

By: Chandrakanth Rao Madhavaram,Janardhana Rao Sunkara,Chandrababu Kuraku,Eswar Prasad Galla,HEMANTH KUMAR GOLLANGI

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216

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JEC PUBLICATION

ISBN 10

9361754424

ISBN 13

9789361754425

Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregation Bias Over the Business Cycle

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Skill Heterogeneity and Aggregation Bias Over the Business Cycle

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper extends the equilibrium business cycle framework to incorporate ex ante skill heterogeneity among workers. Consistent with the empirical evidence, skilled and unskilled workers in the model face the same degree of cyclical variation in real wages although unskilled workers are subject to substantially higher procyclical variation in employment. Systematic cyclical changes in the average skill level of employed workers are shown to induce bias in aggregate measures of cyclical variation in the labor input, productivity, and the real wage. The introduction of skill heterogeneity improves the model’s ability to match the empirical correlation between total hours and the real wage but the correlation between total hours and labor productivity remains higher than in the data.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451854439

ISBN 13

9781451854435

Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm

By: Raghuram Rajan,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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International Monetary Fund

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1451946147

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9781451946147

Emerging Markets

Resilience and Growth amid Global Turmoil

By: Eswar S. Prasad,Ayhan Kose

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Emerging Markets

Resilience and Growth amid Global Turmoil

By: Eswar S. Prasad,Ayhan Kose

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have become the darlings of international investors and the focus of enormous attention in academic, media, and policy circles. M. Ayhan Kose and Eswar Prasad present the definitive account of the evolution of EMEs and use the lens of the global financial crisis to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. Led by a set of large and dynamic countries—including Brazil, China, India, and Russia—EMEs have become a dominant presence in the world economy. They now account for a substantial share of world output and have been a major driver of global growth during the past decade. They are significant players in international trade and financial flows and are beginning to exert rising clout in global policy debates. However, the financial crisis of 2007–09 and the worldwide recession that followed cast a pall over the notion that EMEs had become self-reliant and "decoupled" from demand conditions in and financial flows from advanced countries. Kose and Prasad, prominent experts on emerging market economies and globalization, draw on their extensive research to assess the resilience of EMEs in the face of the global financial crisis. Their analysis shows that EMEs, as a group, weathered the crisis much better than the advanced countries, and most of these economies have bounced back rapidly from the global recession. The authors track down the reasons for this resilience and explain why some countries in this group have done better than others. Based on this analysis, they draw lessons for the durability and sustainability of these economies' long-term growth. This book is important reading for anyone trying to anticipate the future growth of emerging markets or contemplating business opportunities in these economies.

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225

Publisher

Rowman & Littlefield

Published Date

ISBN 10

0815705654

ISBN 13

9780815705659

The Italian Labor Market

Stylized Facts, Institutions, and Directions for Reform

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Ms.Francesca Utili

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The Italian Labor Market

Stylized Facts, Institutions, and Directions for Reform

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Ms.Francesca Utili

This paper provides a synthesis of existing and new empirical perspectives on the structure of the Italian labor market, using data at different levels of disaggregation. The analysis indicates that aggregate data mask considerable disparities in labor market outcomes across regions and demographic groups. The evolutions of sectoral wage and employment structures also point to some dimensions of labor market rigidities. A micro data set with individual data is then used to highlight key structural problems that affect labor supply and demand. The implications of these different strands of empirical analysis for the formulation and effective implementation of labor market policy are then discussed.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451975910

ISBN 13

9781451975918

Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7

By: Mr.Bankim Chadha,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Are Prices Countercyclical? Evidence From the G-7

By: Mr.Bankim Chadha,Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper re-examines the cyclical behavior of prices using postwar quarterly data for the G-7. We confirm recent evidence that the price level is countercyclical. However, we find strong evidence that the inflation rate is procyclical in our sample. Our results show the importance of making a clear distinction between inflation and the cyclical component of the price level when reporting and interpreting stylized facts regarding business cycles.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451851472

ISBN 13

9781451851472

Consumption and Income Inequality in Poland During the Economic Transition

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Michael P. Keane

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Consumption and Income Inequality in Poland During the Economic Transition

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Michael P. Keane

This paper challenges the conventional wisdom that income inequality in Poland increased substantially following the economic transition in 1989–90. The results, based on micro data from the 1985–92 Household Budget Surveys, indicate that overall income inequality increased during the initial stages of the transition but then declined to pre-transition levels. Consumption distributions reveal a similar pattern. However, earnings inequality did increase markedly after the transition and the relative well-being of different socio-economic groups was altered. Absolute poverty levels increased during the transition, but this increase is attributable to declines in mean income and consumption rather than to changes in inequality.

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1451843100

ISBN 13

9781451843101

The Relation Between Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours, and Wages

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Michael P. Keane

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The Relation Between Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours, and Wages

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Michael P. Keane

This paper uses micro panel data to examine differences in the cyclical variability of employment, hours, and real wages for skilled and unskilled workers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that, at the aggregate level, skilled and unskilled workers are subject to essentially the same degree of cyclical variation in wages. However, important differences emerge in the patterns of employment and hours variation for skilled versus unskilled workers, especially when a college degree is used as a proxy for skills. We find that the quality of labor input per manhour tends to rise in recessions, thereby inducing a countercyclical bias in aggregate measures of the real wage. We also find substantial differences across industries in the cyclical variation of employment, hours, and wage differentials, which we interpret as indicative of important inter-industry differences in labor contracting.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1451974620

ISBN 13

9781451974621

International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Jeffery A. Gable

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International Evidenceon the Determinants of Trade Dynamics

By: Mr.Eswar Prasad,Mr.Jeffery A. Gable

This paper provides some new empirical perspectives on the relationship between international trade and macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial economies. First, a comprehensive set of stylized facts concerning fluctuations in trade variables and their determinants are presented. A measure of the quantitative importance of international trade for the propagation of domestic business cycles is then constructed, focusing on the role of external trade as a catalyst for cyclical recoveries. Finally, structural vector autoregression models are used to characterize the joint dynamics of output, exchange rates, and trade variables in response to different types of macroeconomic shocks.

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International Monetary Fund

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145185854X

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9781451858549

Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle

Evidence From Japan

By: Mr.Bankim Chadha,Mr.Eswar Prasad

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Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle

Evidence From Japan

By: Mr.Bankim Chadha,Mr.Eswar Prasad

This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating rate period. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify different types of macroeconomic shocks that determine fluctuations in aggregate output and the real exchange rate. Relative nominal and real demand shocks are found to be the main determinants of variation in real exchange rate changes, while relative output growth is driven primarily by supply shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that the sharp appreciations of the yen in 1993 and 1995 and its subsequent depreciation can be attributed primarily to relative nominal shocks.

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1451855338

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9781451855333

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