Era Dabla-Norris's Books

Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Giang Ho,Ms.Annette Kyobe

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Structural Reforms and Productivity Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Giang Ho,Ms.Annette Kyobe

This paper empirically assesses the role of structural and institutional reforms in driving productivity growth across countries at different stages of development, using a distance-to-frontier framework. It gauges whether particular policies and reforms matter more for increasing productivity growth at the aggregate and sectoral levels for some emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) than others. Recognizing the possibility of time lags between reform implementation and reform payoffs, the paper also examines how productivity gains from various reforms evolve over the the short- and medium-term.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

149830656X

ISBN 13

9781498306560

Public Perceptions of Climate Mitigation Policies

Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Salma Khalid,Hibah Khan,Giacomo Magistretti,Alexandre Sollaci,Mr. Krishna Srinivasan

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Public Perceptions of Climate Mitigation Policies

Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Salma Khalid,Hibah Khan,Giacomo Magistretti,Alexandre Sollaci,Mr. Krishna Srinivasan

Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward implementing climate mitigation policies and achieving decarbonization. Using nationally representative individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this note sheds light on the individual characteristics and beliefs associated with climate risk perceptions and preferences for climate policies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400229756

Asia’s Perspectives on Climate Change

Policies, Perceptions, and Gaps

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Kenichiro Kashiwase,Giacomo Magistretti,Mouhamadou Sy

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Asia’s Perspectives on Climate Change

Policies, Perceptions, and Gaps

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Mr. Thomas Helbling,Kenichiro Kashiwase,Giacomo Magistretti,Mouhamadou Sy

Asia and the Pacific’s green transition will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Over the past decades, the region has become the engine of global economic growth. With relatively heavy reliance on coal and high energy intensity, the region has recently become the largest contributor to growth in global GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total emissions in 2020. Achieving net zero by 2050 requires an energy transition at an unprecedented scale and speed, even as the region must ensure energy security and affordability. The region must also address its vulnerability to climate change as it comprises many countries highly exposed to climate hazards increasing in severity and frequency with global warming. If managed well, the green transformation in Asia and the Pacific will create opportunities for economies not only in the region, but also around the world for inclusive and sustainable growth. The global economy is still far from achieving net zero by 2050, and the Asia and the Pacific region must play its part to deliver on mitigation and adaptation goals. Understanding Asia’s perspectives on the constraints and issues with climate ambitions, climate policy actions, and constraints is central for devising climate strategies to meet climate goals. To this end, this chapter draws on novel surveys of country authorities and public in the region to distill climate ambitions and challenges faced and identify sources of major gaps in achieving mitigation and adaptation goals. Measures to help close the gaps are drawn from policy discussions with country authorities in bilateral surveillance and related studies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400254291

Tax Administration and Firm Performance

New Data and Evidence for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Florian Misch,Mr.Duncan Cleary,Munawer Khwaja

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Tax Administration and Firm Performance

New Data and Evidence for Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Florian Misch,Mr.Duncan Cleary,Munawer Khwaja

Tax compliance costs tend to be disproportionately higher for small and young businesses. This paper examines how the quality of tax administration affects firm performance for a large sample of firms in emerging market and developing economies. We construct a novel, internationally comparable, and multidimensional index of tax administration quality (the TAQI) using information from the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool. We show that better tax administration attenuates the productivity gap of small and young firms relative to larger and older firms, a result that is robust to controlling for other aspects of tax policy and of economic governance, alternative definitions of small and young firms, and measures of the quality of tax administration. From a policy perspective, we provide evidence that countries can reap growth and productivity dividends from improvements in tax administration that lower compliance costs faced by firms.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475595166

ISBN 13

9781475595161

Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars

By: Mr.Thomas J Sargent,Mr.George Hall,Mr.Martin Ellison,Mr.Andrew Scott,Mr.Harold James,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mark De Broeck,Mr.Nicolas End,Ms.Marina Marinkov,Vitor Gaspar

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Debt and Entanglements Between the Wars

By: Mr.Thomas J Sargent,Mr.George Hall,Mr.Martin Ellison,Mr.Andrew Scott,Mr.Harold James,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mark De Broeck,Mr.Nicolas End,Ms.Marina Marinkov,Vitor Gaspar

World War I created a set of forces that affected the political arrangements and economies of all the countries involved. This period in global economic history between World War I and II offers rich material for studying international monetary and sovereign debt policies. Debt and Entanglements between the Wars focuses on the experiences of the United States, United Kingdom, four countries in the British Commonwealth (Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Newfoundland), France, Italy, Germany, and Japan, offering unique insights into how political and economic interests influenced alliances, defaults, and the unwinding of debts. The narratives presented show how the absence of effective international collaboration and resolution mechanisms inflicted damage on the global economy, with disastrous consequences.

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322

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International Monetary Fund

Published Date

ISBN 10

1513511793

ISBN 13

9781513511795

Reducing and Redistributing Unpaid Work: Stronger Policies to Support Gender Equality

By: Cristian Alonso,Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yuko Kinoshita,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar

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Reducing and Redistributing Unpaid Work: Stronger Policies to Support Gender Equality

By: Cristian Alonso,Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yuko Kinoshita,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar

Unpaid work, such as caring for children, the elderly, and household chores represents a significant share of economic activity but is not counted as part of GDP. Women disproportionately shoulder the burden of unpaid work: on average, women do two more hours of unpaid work per day than men, with large differences across countries. While much unpaid care work is done entirely by choice, constraints imposed by cultural norms, labor market features or lack of public services, infrastructure, and family-friendly policies matter. This undermines female labor force participation and lowers economy-wide productivity. In this paper, we examine recent trends in unpaid work around the world using aggregate and individual-level data, explore potential drivers, and identify policies that can help reduce and redistribute unpaid work across genders. Conservative model-based estimates suggest that the gains from these policies could amount to up to 4 percent of GDP.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

151351699X

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9781513516998

Pandemics and Inequality: Perceptions and Preferences for Redistribution

By: Vybhavi Balasundharam,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

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Pandemics and Inequality: Perceptions and Preferences for Redistribution

By: Vybhavi Balasundharam,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

This paper uses an individual-level survey conducted by the Edelman Trust Barometer in mid-April for 11 advanced and emerging market economies to examine perceptions of government performance in managing the health and economic crisis, beliefs about the future, and attitudes about redistribution. We find that women, non-college educated, the unemployed, and those in non-teleworkable jobs systematically have less favorable perceptions of government responses. Personally experiencing illness or job loss caused by the pandemic can shape people’s beliefs about the future, heightening uncertainties about prolonged job losses, and the imminent threat from automation. Economic anxieties are amplified in countries that experienced an early surge in infections followed by successful containment, suggesting that negative beliefs can persist. Support for pro-equality redistributive policies varies, depending on personal experiences and views about the poor. However, we find strong willingness to provide social safety nets for vulnerable individuals and firms by those who have a more favorable perception of government responses, suggesting that effective government actions can promote support for redistributive policies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513570722

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9781513570723

Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization

By: Mr.JaeBin Ahn,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Romain A Duval,Bingjie Hu,Lamin Njie

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Reassessing the Productivity Gains from Trade Liberalization

By: Mr.JaeBin Ahn,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Romain A Duval,Bingjie Hu,Lamin Njie

This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country-industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non-tariff barriers. Finally, we find strong evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.

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1475546777

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9781475546774

Anchoring Growth

The Importance of Productivity-Enhancing Reforms in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Giang Ho,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Ms.Annette J Kyobe,Mr.Robert Tchaidze

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Anchoring Growth

The Importance of Productivity-Enhancing Reforms in Emerging Market and Developing Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Giang Ho,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Ms.Annette J Kyobe,Mr.Robert Tchaidze

Fostering and sustaining robust economic growth is an imperative across advanced, emerging, and low-income countries alike. Countries will need to focus on supply-side reforms to raise their potential output and anchor medium-term growth prospects. This SDN will emphasize the role of structural reforms and supportive policy and institutional frameworks for boosting productivity–a key engine of economic growth–in the wake of the crisis. By examining a broad spectrum of reforms that eliminate impediments to growth, the paper will seek to highlight a differentiated policy agenda across countries.

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1475524595

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9781475524598

Is Technology Widening the Gender Gap? Automation and the Future of Female Employment

By: Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid

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Is Technology Widening the Gender Gap? Automation and the Future of Female Employment

By: Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid

Using individual level data on task composition at work for 30 advanced and emerging economies, we find that women, on average, perform more routine tasks than men?tasks that are more prone to automation. To quantify the impact on jobs, we relate data on task composition at work to occupation level estimates of probability of automation, controlling for a rich set of individual characteristics (e.g., education, age, literacy and numeracy skills). Our results indicate that female workers are at a significantly higher risk for displacement by automation than male workers, with 11 percent of the female workforce at high risk of being automated given the current state of technology, albeit with significant cross-country heterogeneity. The probability of automation is lower for younger cohorts of women, and for those in managerial positions.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498313809

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9781498313803

What Determines Social Distancing? Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Hibah Khan,Frederico Lima

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What Determines Social Distancing? Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Market Economies

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Hibah Khan,Frederico Lima

The health and economic consequences of COVID-19 are closely tied to individual compliance with recommended protective behaviors. We examine the determinants of this compliance using survey data from the COVID Behavior Tracker for 29 advanced and emerging market economies between March and December 2020. Social distancing behaviors vary significantly by age, gender, occupation, and individual beliefs about COVID-19. In addition, those who trust their government’s response to COVID-19 are significantly more likely to adopt recommended behaviors and to self-isolate if advised, highlighting the need for well-coordinated actions on the health and economic fronts. We also find that mobility restrictions, such as stay-at-home orders, and mask mandates are associated with reduced social interactions and persistent increases in compliance. Together, these drivers account for over two-thirds of the regional differences in compliance, confirming their important role in increasing social distancing and containing the pandemic.

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International Monetary Fund

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1513582380

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9781513582382

Productivity and Tax Evasion

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Mark Gradstein,Fedor Miryugin,Florian Misch

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Productivity and Tax Evasion

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Mark Gradstein,Fedor Miryugin,Florian Misch

The extent of tax compliance has important implications for revenue yield, efficiency and the fairness of any tax system. Tax evasion undermines revenue collection, distorts competition, and undermines a country’s development prospects. In this paper, we investigate whether higher productivity causally leads to lower tax evasion. We first present stylized facts consistent with this view and develop a model that illustrates one potential transmission channel. Second, we test the model predictions at the firm level using the self-reported share of declared income as proxy for tax evasion for a large sample of emerging and developing economies. Our results suggests that productivity improvements by firms can lead to lower tax evasion.

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1513522418

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9781513522418

Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

A Vulnerability Index

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz

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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries

A Vulnerability Index

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yasemin Bal-Gunduz

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of the global financial crisis.

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1475548834

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9781475548839

Investing in Public Investment

An Index of Public Investment Efficiency

By: Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Zac Mills,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jim Brumby,Ms.Annette Kyobe

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Investing in Public Investment

An Index of Public Investment Efficiency

By: Mr.Chris Papageorgiou,Zac Mills,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jim Brumby,Ms.Annette Kyobe

This paper introduces a new index that captures the institutional environment underpinning public investment management across four different stages: project appraisal, selection, implementation, and evaluation. Covering 71 countries, including 40 low-income countries, the index allows for benchmarking across regions and country groups and for nuanced policy-relevant analysis and identification of specific areas where reform efforts could be prioritized. Potential research venues are outlined.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1455217891

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9781455217892

Financial Inclusion

Zooming in on Latin America

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yixi Deng,Anna Ivanova,Ms.Izabela Karpowicz,Ms.Filiz Unsal,Eva VanLeemput,Joyce Wong

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Financial Inclusion

Zooming in on Latin America

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yixi Deng,Anna Ivanova,Ms.Izabela Karpowicz,Ms.Filiz Unsal,Eva VanLeemput,Joyce Wong

Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) have made important strides in promoting financial inclusion of firms and households. However, while the region is broadly at par with its peers on financial inclusion of firms, household inclusion lags behind. Nonetheless, there is substantial heterogeneity across LAC countries. Reducing borrowing costs and strengthening further the regulatory environment, while taking steps to protect efficiency and stability of the financial system, could help close financial inclusion gaps. Reducing financial participation and monitoring costs and relaxing collateral constraints will help spur growth and reduce inequality though trade-offs are likely, as illustrated in the case of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Peru.

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International Monetary Fund

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1513568922

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9781513568928

Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Marco Arena,Serpil Bouza,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Lamin Njie

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Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Stylized Facts and Lessons for Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Marco Arena,Serpil Bouza,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mrs.Kerstin Gerling,Lamin Njie

Using a comprehensive database on bank credit, covering 135 developing countries over the period 1960–2011, we identify, document, and compare the macro-economic dynamics of credit booms across low- and middle-income countries. The results suggest that while the duration and magnitude of credit booms is similar across country groups, macro-economic dynamics differ somewhat in low-income countries. We further find that surges in capital inflows are associated with credit booms. Moreover, credit booms associated with banking crises exhibit distinct macroeconomic dynamics, while also reflecting a potentially large deviation of credit from country fundamentals. These results suggest that low-income countries should remain mindful of the inter-linkages between financial liberalization, increased cross-border banking activities, and rapid credit growth.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1498355269

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9781498355261

Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Pooja Karnane,Florian Misch

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Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Pooja Karnane,Florian Misch

This paper describes a new, comprehensive database of tax policy measures in 23 advanced and emerging market economies over the last four decades. We extract this information from more than 900 OECD Economic Surveys and 37,000 tax-related news from the International Bureau of Fiscal Documentation using text-mining techniques. The innovation of this dataset lies in its granularity: changes in the rates and bases of personal and corporate income taxes, value added and sale taxes, social security contributions, excise, and property taxes are systematically documented. In addition, the database provides information on the announcement and implementation dates, whether the measures represent major changes, are part of a broader tax package, and phased in over several years. The paper also presents a range of stylized facts suggesting that information from this database is useful to deepen the analysis of tax policy changes for research and policy purposes.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484354869

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9781484354865

Too Cold, Too Hot, or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe

By: Mr.Adolfo Barajas,Thorsten Beck,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Reza Yousefi

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Too Cold, Too Hot, or Just Right? Assessing Financial Sector Development Across the Globe

By: Mr.Adolfo Barajas,Thorsten Beck,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Reza Yousefi

This paper introduces the concept of the financial possibility frontier as a constrained optimum level of financial development to gauge the relative performance of financial systems across the globe. This frontier takes into account structural country characteristics, institutional, and macroeconomic factors that impact financial system deepening. We operationalize this framework using a benchmarking exercise, which relates the difference between the actual level of financial development and the level predicted by structural characteristics, to an array of policy variables. We also show that an overshooting of the financial system significantly beyond levels predicted by its structural fundamentals is associated with credit booms and busts.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484320824

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9781484320822

Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality

A Global Perspective

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Mrs.Nujin Suphaphiphat,Mr.Frantisek Ricka,Ms.Evridiki Tsounta

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Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality

A Global Perspective

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Mrs.Nujin Suphaphiphat,Mr.Frantisek Ricka,Ms.Evridiki Tsounta

This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.

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1513555189

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9781513555188

The Future of Saving

The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Hua Chai,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Kamil Dybczak,Mauricio Soto,Alexander F. Tieman

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The Future of Saving

The Role of Pension System Design in an Aging World

By: Mr.David Amaglobeli,Hua Chai,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Kamil Dybczak,Mauricio Soto,Alexander F. Tieman

This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables.

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1484388992

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9781484388990

Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Carlo Pizzinelli,Jay Rappaport

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Job Polarization and the Declining Fortunes of the Young: Evidence from the United Kingdom

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Carlo Pizzinelli,Jay Rappaport

This paper uses a life-cycle framework to document new stylized facts about the nexus between job polarization and earnings inequality. Using quarterly labor force data for the UK over the period 2000-2018, we find clear life-cycle profiles in the probability of being employed within each occupation type and wages earned therein. Cohort plots and econometric analysis suggest that labor market outcomes and prospects have gradually worsened for the young. These adverse trends are particularly significant for low-skill women: estimated cohort effects point to a fall in wages within each occupation as well as a lower propensity of being employed in abstract-task occupations. We also find evidence of general occupational downgrading in the UK, with more educated workers taking up fewer high-skill occupations than they did in the past. Our analysis informs the policy debate over appropriate measures needed to reduce skill mismatches and alleviate labor market transitions.

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1513517279

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9781513517278

Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies

Fiscal Costs, Gains, and Support

By: Angana Banerji,Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Christian H Ebeke,Davide Furceri,Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan

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Labor and Product Market Reforms in Advanced Economies

Fiscal Costs, Gains, and Support

By: Angana Banerji,Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Christian H Ebeke,Davide Furceri,Mr.Takuji Komatsuzaki,Mr.Tigran Poghosyan

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120

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1475585047

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9781475585049

Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19

By: Hibah Khan,Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Frederico Lima,Alexandre Sollaci

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Who Doesn’t Want to be Vaccinated? Determinants of Vaccine Hesitancy During COVID-19

By: Hibah Khan,Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Frederico Lima,Alexandre Sollaci

Quick vaccine rollouts are crucial for a strong economic recovery, but vaccine hesitancy could prolong the pandemic and the need for social distancing and lockdowns. We use individual-level data from nationally representative surveys developed by YouGov and Imperial College London to empirically examine the determinants of vaccine hesitancy across 17 countries and over time. Vaccine demand depends on demographic features such as age and gender, but also on perceptions about the severity of COVID-19 and side effects of the vaccine, vaccine access, compliance with protective behaviors, overall trust in government, and how information is shared with peers. We then introduce vaccine hesitancy into an extended SIR model to assess its impact on pandemic dynamics. We find that hesitancy can increase COVID-19 infections and deaths significantly if it slows down vaccine rollouts, but has a smaller impact if all willing adults can be immunized rapidly.

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1513573713

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9781513573717

Firm Productivity, innovation and Financial Development

By: Ms.Genevieve Verdier,Erasmus Kersting,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

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Firm Productivity, innovation and Financial Development

By: Ms.Genevieve Verdier,Erasmus Kersting,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

How do firm-specific actions-in particular, innovation-affect firm productivity? And what is the role of the financial sector in facilitating higher productivity? Using a rich firm-level dataset, we find that innovation is crucial for firm performance as it directly and measurably increases productivity. Moreover, its effects on productivity are mediated through the financial sector; firms reap the maximum benefits from innovation in countries with well-developed financial sectors. This effect is particularly important for firms in high-tech sectors, which typically have higher external financing needs.

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1451963254

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9781451963250

Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality

A Structural Framework for Policy

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yan Ji,Robert Townsend,Ms.Filiz Unsal

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Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality

A Structural Framework for Policy

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Yan Ji,Robert Townsend,Ms.Filiz Unsal

We develop a micro-founded general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to identify pertinent constraints to financial inclusion. We evaluate quantitatively the policy impacts of relaxing each of these constraints separately, and in combination, on GDP and inequality. We focus on three dimensions of financial inclusion: access (determined by the size of participation costs), depth (determined by the size of collateral constraints resulting from limited commitment), and intermediation efficiency (determined by the size of interest rate spreads and default possibilities due to costly monitoring). We take the model to a firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for six countries at varying degrees of economic development—three low-income countries (Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique), and three emerging market countries (Malaysia, the Philippines, and Egypt). The results suggest that alleviating different financial frictions have a differential impact across countries, with country-specific characteristics playing a central role in determining the linkages and tradeoffs between inclusion, GDP, inequality, and the distribution of gains and losses.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1484352874

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9781484352878

The New Normal

A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Minsuk Kim,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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The New Normal

A Sector-level Perspective on Productivity Trends in Advanced Economies

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Si Guo,Mr.Vikram Haksar,Minsuk Kim,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar,Kevin Wiseman,Aleksandra Zdzienicka

Total factor productivity growth was stagnant or slowing in many advanced countries even prior to the crisis. This paper documents sector-level productivity patterns across advanced economies prior to the crisis and examines the role of product and labor market rigidities as well as innovation and investments in information technology and human capital in driving productivity differences across sectors and countries. Since productivity payoffs of reforms evolve over time, we also focus on large changes in the structural indicators examine their dynamic impact on productivity, employment, and output. Our results suggest that reform priorities depend on country-specific settings, including the scale of specific policy distortions and the distance from the technology frontier. Productivity gains from reforms are large and materialize predominantly in the medium term, with some important variations across industries and countries.

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1498334180

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9781498334181

Digitalization and Tax Compliance Spillovers: Evidence from a VAT E-Invoicing Reform in Peru

By: Mr. Matthieu Bellon,Jillie Chang,Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid,Juan Carlos Paliza,Pilar Villena

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Digitalization and Tax Compliance Spillovers: Evidence from a VAT E-Invoicing Reform in Peru

By: Mr. Matthieu Bellon,Jillie Chang,Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid,Juan Carlos Paliza,Pilar Villena

Our study uses administrative data on firm-to-firm transactions and quasi- experimental variation in the rollout of electronic invoicing reforms in Peru to study the diffusion of e-invoicing through firm networks and its effect on tax compliance. We find that voluntary e-invoicing adoption is higher amongst firms with partners who are mandated to adopt e-invoicing, implying positive technology adoption spillovers. Spillovers are stronger from downstream partners and from export-oriented firms. Firms are less likely to continue transacting with a partner who has been mandated into e-invoicing, with the effect only partially reversed if both firms adopt e-invoicing, suggesting that network segmentation may occur. Smaller firms who transact with partners mandated into e-invoicing report 11 percent more sales and pay 17 more VAT in the year that their partner is mandated to adopt e-invoicing, suggesting positive spillovers in tax compliance behavior for this subset of firms.

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ISBN 13

9798400204876

Gender, Technology, and the Future of Work

By: Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Christine Kamunge,Pooja Karnane,Salma Khalid,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar

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Gender, Technology, and the Future of Work

By: Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Christine Kamunge,Pooja Karnane,Salma Khalid,Ms.Kalpana Kochhar

New technologies?digitalization, artificial intelligence, and machine learning?are changing the way work gets done at an unprecedented rate. Helping people adapt to a fast-changing world of work and ameliorating its deleterious impacts will be the defining challenge of our time. What are the gender implications of this changing nature of work? How vulnerable are women’s jobs to risk of displacement by technology? What policies are needed to ensure that technological change supports a closing, and not a widening, of gender gaps? This SDN finds that women, on average, perform more routine tasks than men across all sectors and occupations?tasks that are most prone to automation. Given the current state of technology, we estimate that 26 million female jobs in 30 countries (28 OECD member countries, Cyprus, and Singapore) are at a high risk of being displaced by technology (i.e., facing higher than 70 percent likelihood of being automated) within the next two decades. Female workers face a higher risk of automation compared to male workers (11 percent of the female workforce, relative to 9 percent of the male workforce), albeit with significant heterogeneity across sectors and countries. Less well-educated and older female workers (aged 40 and above), as well as those in low-skill clerical, service, and sales positions are disproportionately exposed to automation. Extrapolating our results, we find that around 180 million female jobs are at high risk of being displaced globally. Policies are needed to endow women with required skills; close gender gaps in leadership positions; bridge digital gender divide (as ongoing digital transformation could confer greater flexibility in work, benefiting women); ease transitions for older and low-skilled female workers.

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1484379764

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9781484379769

Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono,Mr.George C. Tsibouris

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Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

By: Mr.Valerio Crispolti,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Jun Il Kim,Ms.Kazuko Shirono,Mr.George C. Tsibouris

Low-income countries routinely experience exogenous disturbances—sharp swings in the terms of trade, export demand, natural disasters, and volatile financial flows—that contribute to higher volatility in aggregate output and consumption compared with other countries. Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries presents the findings of an analysis of a range of external shocks faced by these countries, beginning with a discussion of the impact of external shocks on macroeconomic growth, volatility, and welfare. Although sound macroeconomic and prudential policy frameworks are the first line of defense for limiting vulnerability, international reserves constitute the main form of self-insurance against such shocks. The evidence suggests that low-income countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption and absorption in the face of external shocks compared with those with lower reserve holdings. The analysis also points to the importance of country characteristics and vulnerabilities in assessing reserve adequacy.

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1616354127

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9781616354121

National Income and Its Distribution

By: Markus Bruckner,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Mark Gradstein

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National Income and Its Distribution

By: Markus Bruckner,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Mark Gradstein

Does the distribution of income within a country become more equal as it grows richer? This paper uses plausibly exogenous variations in trade-weighted world income and international oil price shocks as instruments for within-country variations in countries real GDP per capita to examine this issue for a large sample of advanced and developing countries. Our findings indicate that increases in national income have a significant moderating effect on income inequality: a one percent increase in real GDP per capita, on average, reduces the Gini coefficient by around 0.08 percentage points, a result that is robust across income levels, different time horizons, and alternative estimation techniques. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that education policies that promote equity and help individuals continue on to higher levels of education could help reduce income inequality.

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1498320902

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9781498320900

Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

By: Chuling Chen,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Jay Rappaport,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

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Political Costs of Tax-Based Consolidations

By: Chuling Chen,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Jay Rappaport,Ms.Aleksandra Zdzienicka

This paper studies the impact of tax-based consolidations on reelection outcomes. Using a granular database of tax-based consolidations for a panel of 10 OECD countries over the last 40 years, we find that tax reforms are politically costly but some reforms are costlier than others. Measures aimed primarily at reducing existing deficits and debt are costlier than tax consolidation policies for improving long-term growth prospects. Electoral costs are particularly high for broad-based indirect tax and corporate tax reforms. Voters tend to penalize governments less if tax consolidations are announced early in the government’s term or if the government has a strong political mandate. Favorable economic conditions increase public support for tax-based consolidations. Personal income tax reforms are electorally salient if the reforms are frontloaded, announced during recessions, and in less progressive tax systems.

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International Monetary Fund

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1513525336

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9781513525334

Fiscal Policies to Address Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific

Opportunities and Challenges

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.James Daniel,Mr.Masahiro Nozaki,Cristian Alonso,Vybhavi Balasundharam,Mr.Matthieu Bellon,Chuling Chen,David Corvino,Mr.Joey Kilpatrick

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Fiscal Policies to Address Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific

Opportunities and Challenges

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.James Daniel,Mr.Masahiro Nozaki,Cristian Alonso,Vybhavi Balasundharam,Mr.Matthieu Bellon,Chuling Chen,David Corvino,Mr.Joey Kilpatrick

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing policymakers worldwide, and the stakes are particularly high for Asia and the Pacific. This paper analyzes how fiscal policy can address challenges from climate change in Asia and the Pacific. It aims to answer how policymakers can best promote mitigation, adaptation, and the transition to a low-carbon economy, emphasizing the economic and social implications of reforms, potential policy trade-offs, and country circumstances. The recommendations are grounded in quantitative analysis using country-specific estimates, and granular household, industry, and firm-level data.

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125

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International Monetary Fund

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1513561391

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9781513561394

China's Rebalancing and Gender Inequality

By: International Monetary Fund

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China's Rebalancing and Gender Inequality

By: International Monetary Fund

This paper examines gender inequality in the context of structural transformation and rebalancing in China. We document declining women's relative wages and labor force participation in China during the last two decades, despite rapid growth and expansion of the service sector. Using household data, we provide evidence consistent with a U-shaped relationship between economic development and women's labor market outcomes. Using a model of structural transformation, we show that labor market barriers for women have increased over time. Model counterfactuals suggest that removing these barriers and increasing service sector productivity can boost both gender equality and economic growth in China.

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1513573772

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9781513573779

Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Alun H. Thomas,Mr.Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu,Ms.Yingyuan Chen

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Benchmarking Structural Transformation Across the World

By: Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Mr.Alun H. Thomas,Mr.Rodrigo Garcia-Verdu,Ms.Yingyuan Chen

This paper documents stylized facts on the process of structural transformation around the world and empirically analyzes its determinants using data on real value added by sector of economic activity (agriculture, manufacturing and services) for a panel of 168 countries over the period 1970-2010. The analysis points to large differences in sector shares both across and within regions as well as for countries at similar levels of economic development. Using both linear and quantile regression methods, it finds that a large proportion of the cross-country variation in sector shares can be accounted for by country characteristics, such as real GDP per capita, demographic structure, and population size. It also finds that policy and insitutional variables, such as product market reforms, openness to trade, human and physical capital, and finance improve the baseline model’s ability to account for the variation in sectoral shares across countries.

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1484332431

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9781484332436

Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid

New Evidence

By: Ms.Camelia Minoiu,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

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Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid

New Evidence

By: Ms.Camelia Minoiu,Luis-Felipe Zanna,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris

We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970?2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become countercyclical when recipient countries face large adverse shocks to the terms-of-trade or growth collapses-thus playing an important cushioning role. Aid outlays contract sharply during severe donor economic downturns; this effect is magnified by higher public debt levels. Additionally, bilateral aid flows are higher in the presence of IMF programs and are more countercyclical for recipient countries with stronger institutions.

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1455209406

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9781455209408

Who will Bear the Brunt of Lockdown Policies? Evidence from Tele-workability Measures Across Countries

By: Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid

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Who will Bear the Brunt of Lockdown Policies? Evidence from Tele-workability Measures Across Countries

By: Mariya Brussevich,Ms.Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid

Lockdowns imposed around the world to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are having a differential impact on economic activity and jobs. This paper presents a new index of the feasibility to work from home to investigate what types of jobs are most at risk. We estimate that over 97.3 million workers, equivalent to about 15 percent of the workforce, are at high risk of layoffs and furlough across the 35 advanced and emerging countries in our sample. Workers least likely to work remotely tend to be young, without a college education, working for non-standard contracts, employed in smaller firms, and those at the bottom of the earnings distribution, suggesting that the pandemic could exacerbate inequality. Crosscountry heterogeneity in the ability to work remotely reflects differential access to and use of technology, sectoral mix, and labor market selection. Policies should account for demographic and distributional considerations both during the crisis and in its aftermath.

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International Monetary Fund

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1513546287

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9781513546285

Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid,Giacomo Magistretti,Alexandre Sollaci

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Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey

By: Ms. Era Dabla-Norris,Salma Khalid,Giacomo Magistretti,Alexandre Sollaci

Building public support for climate mitigation is a key prerequisite to making meaningful strides toward decarbonization and achieving net-zero emissions. Using nationally representative, individual-level surveys for 28 countries, this paper identifies the current levels and drivers of support for climate mitigation policies. Controlling for individual characteristics, we find that pre-existing beliefs about policy efficacy, perceived costs and co-benefits (e.g., cleaner air), and the degree of policy progressivity are important drivers of support for carbon pricing policies. The knowledge gap about climate mitigation policies can be large, but randomized information experiments show that support increases (decreases) after individuals are introduced to new information on the benefits (potential costs) of such policies.

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ISBN 13

9798400258138

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