Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo's Books

Regional Spillovers from the Venezuelan Crisis

Migration Flows and Their Impact on Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Jorge Alvarez,Mr. Marco Arena,Alain Brousseau,Mr. Hamid Faruqee,Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo,Mr. Jaime Guajardo,Gerardo Peraza,Juan Yepez

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Regional Spillovers from the Venezuelan Crisis

Migration Flows and Their Impact on Latin America and the Caribbean

By: Jorge Alvarez,Mr. Marco Arena,Alain Brousseau,Mr. Hamid Faruqee,Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo,Mr. Jaime Guajardo,Gerardo Peraza,Juan Yepez

As a new migration crisis is unfolding in Europe because of the war in Ukraine, the purpose of this paper is to also highlight the ongoing migration crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) due to Venezuela’s economic collapse. The stock of Venezuelan migrants reached 5 million in 2019, most of which had settled in other LAC countries. Following a temporary halt during the pandemic, migration from Venezuela has resumed, with the stock of migrants reaching 6.1 million in 2021. These migration flows are expected to continue in the coming years, which can strain public services and labor markets in the recipient economies in LAC. This Departmental Paper focuses on migration spillovers from the Venezuelan economic and social crisis. It sheds light on how migration can raise GDP growth and affect fiscal and external positions in host countries. It also discusses policy options, including greater support for education and integration into the workforce, which could help migrants find jobs to match their skills and help raise growth prospects in recipient countries.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400224478

On the Macro Impact of Extreme Climate Events in Central America: A Higher Frequency Investigation

By: Hee Soo Kim,Carlos Chaverri,Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo,Pedro Juarros

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On the Macro Impact of Extreme Climate Events in Central America: A Higher Frequency Investigation

By: Hee Soo Kim,Carlos Chaverri,Emilio William Fernandez Corugedo,Pedro Juarros

Central America is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to extreme climate events. The literature estimates the macroeconomic effects of climate events mainly using annual data, which might underestimate the true effects as these extreme events tend to be short-lived and generate government and family support in response. To overcome this limitation, this paper studies Central American countries’ macroeconomic impact of climatic disasters using high-frequency (monthly) data over the period 2000-2019. We identify extreme climate events by defining dummy variables related to storm and flood events reported in the EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database) and estimate country-specific VAR and panel VAR. The results suggest that a climatic disaster drops monthly economic activity in most countries in the region of around 0.5 to 1 percentage points on impact, with persistent effects on the level of GDP. We show that even as extreme climate events were relatively less severe under our sample period, quantitative effects are similar or larger than previously estimated for the region. In addition, remittances (transfers from family living abroad) increase for most countries in response to a extreme climate event, acting as a shock absorber. The results are robust to controlling for the severity of the climate events, for which we construct a monthly climate index measuring severity of weather indicators by following the spirit of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI).

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