Emanuele Massetti's Books

Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations

By: Berkay Akyapi,Mr. Matthieu Bellon,Emanuele Massetti

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Estimating Macro-Fiscal Effects of Climate Shocks From Billions of Geospatial Weather Observations

By: Berkay Akyapi,Mr. Matthieu Bellon,Emanuele Massetti

A growing literature estimates the macroeconomic effect of weather using variations in annual country-level averages of temperature and precipitation. However, averages may not reveal the effects of extreme events that occur at a higher time frequency or higher spatial resolution. To address this issue, we rely on global daily weather measurements with a 30-km spatial resolution from 1979 to 2019 and construct 164 weather variables and their lags. We select a parsimonious subset of relevant weather variables using an algorithm based on the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator. We also expand the literature by analyzing weather impacts on government revenue, expenditure, and debt, in addition to GDP per capita. We find that an increase in the occurrence of high temperatures and droughts reduce GDP, whereas more frequent mild temperatures have a positive impact. The share of GDP variations that is explained by weather as captured by the handful of our selected variables is much higher than what was previously implied by using annual temperature and precipitation averages. We also find evidence of counter-cyclical fiscal policies that mitigate adverse weather shocks, especially excessive or unusually low precipitation episodes.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400217203

Economic Principles for Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change Into Fiscal Policy

By: Mr. Matthieu Bellon,Emanuele Massetti

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Economic Principles for Integrating Adaptation to Climate Change Into Fiscal Policy

By: Mr. Matthieu Bellon,Emanuele Massetti

Adaptation to climate change is a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. Policymakers face the challenge of facilitating this transition. This Note argues that adaptation to climate change should be part of a holistic development strategy involving both private and public sector responses. Governments can prioritize public investment in adaptation programs with positive externalities, address market imperfections and policies that make private adaptation inefficient, and mobilize revenues for, and distribute the benefits of, adaptation. Although the choice of what should be done and at what cost ultimately depends on each society’s preferences, economic theory provides a useful framework to maximize the impact of public spending. Cost-benefit analysis, complemented by the analysis of distributional effects, can be used to prioritize adaptation programs as well as all other development programs to promote an efficient and just transition to a changed climate. While compensations may be needed to offset damages that are either impossible or too expensive to abate, subsidies for adaptation require careful calibration to prevent excessive risk taking.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 10

1513592378

ISBN 13

9781513592374

The Brexit Effect

What Leaving the EU Means for British Politics

By: Gianfranco Baldini,Edoardo Bressanelli,Emanuele Massetti

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The Brexit Effect

What Leaving the EU Means for British Politics

By: Gianfranco Baldini,Edoardo Bressanelli,Emanuele Massetti

This book examines the seismic impact of Brexit on the British political system, assessing its likely long-term effect in terms of a significantly changed political and constitutional landscape. Starting with the 2015 general election and covering key developments up to "Brexit Day", it shows how Brexit "transformed" British politics. The unprecedented turmoil – two snap elections, three Prime Ministers, the biggest ever defeat for the Government in Parliament, an impressive number of rebellions and reshuffles in Cabinet and repeated requests for a second independence referendum in Scotland – as a result of leaving the EU, calls into question what sort of political system the post-Brexit UK will become. Taking Lijphart’s "Westminster model" as its reference, the book assesses the impact of Brexit along three dimensions: elections and parties; executive–legislative relationships; and the relationship between central and devolved administrations. Based on a wealth of empirical material, including original interviews with key policymakers and civil servants, it focuses on the "big picture" and analytically maps the direction of travel for the UK political system. This book will be of key interest to scholars and students of Brexit, British politics, constitutional, political, and contemporary history, elections and political parties, executive politics, and territorial politics as well as more broadly related practitioners and journalists. Chapters one and two of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF at http://www.taylorfrancis.com under a Creative Commons [Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND)] 4.0 license. Funded by the University of Trento and the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies.

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171

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Taylor & Francis

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ISBN 10

1000771628

ISBN 13

9781000771626

Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy

By: Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon

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Planning and Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Fiscal Policy

By: Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon

This Staff Climate Note is part of a series of three Notes (IMF Staff Climate Note 2022/001, 2022/002, and 2022/003) that discuss fiscal policies for climate change adaptation. A first Note (Bellon and Massetti 2022, henceforth Note 1) examines the economic principles that can guide the integration of climate change adaptation into fiscal policy. It argues that climate change adaptation should be part of a holistic, sustainable, and equitable development strategy. To maximize the impact of scarce resources, governments need to prioritize among all development programs, including but not limited to adaptation. To this end, they can use cost-benefit analysis while ensuring that the decision-making process reflects society’s preferences about equity and uncertainty. A second Note (Aligishiev, Bellon, and Massetti. 2022, henceforth Note 2) discusses the macro-fiscal implications of climate change adaptation. It reviews evidence on the effectiveness of adaptation at reducing climate change damages, on residual risks, and on adaptation investment needs, and suggests ways to integrate climate risks and adaptation costs into national macro-fiscal frameworks with the goal of guiding fiscal policy. It stresses that lower-income vulnerable countries, which have typically not contributed much to climate change, face exacerbated challenges that warrant increased international support. This third Note considers how to translate adaptation principles and estimates of climate impacts into effective policies.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400201950

Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change

By: Mr. Zamid Aligishiev,Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon

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Macro-Fiscal Implications of Adaptation to Climate Change

By: Mr. Zamid Aligishiev,Emanuele Massetti,Mr. Matthieu Bellon

Adaptation to climate change is an integral part of sustainable development and a necessity for advanced and developing economies alike. How can adaptation be planned for and mainstreamed into fiscal policy? Setting up inclusive coordination mechanisms and strengthening legal foundations to incorporate climate change can be a prerequisite. This Note identifies four building blocks: 1. Taking stock of present and future climate risks, identifying knowledge and capacity gaps, and establishing guidance for next steps. 2. Developing adaptation solutions. This block can be guided by extending the IMF three-pillar disaster resilience strategy to address changes in both extreme and average weather and would cover the prevention of risks, the alleviation of residual risks, and macro-fiscal resilience. 3. Mainstreaming these solutions into government operations. This requires strengthening public financial management institutions by factoring climate risks and adaptation plans into budgets and macro-frameworks, and in the management of public investment, assets and liabilities. 4. Providing for transparent evaluations to inform future plans. This involves continually monitoring progress and regularly updating adaptation plans.

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International Monetary Fund

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ISBN 13

9798400201608

Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

By: Cristina Cattaneo,Emanuele Massetti,Shouro Dasgupta,Fabio Farinosi

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Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

By: Cristina Cattaneo,Emanuele Massetti,Shouro Dasgupta,Fabio Farinosi

We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

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