Donald Dibra's Books

Project Valuation and Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty applying Decision Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

By: Donald Dibra

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Project Valuation and Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty applying Decision Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

By: Donald Dibra

This work presents the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach when dealing with the economic valuation of projects which are subjected to risks and uncertainties. The Net Present Value of a project is usually used as an investment decision parameter. Using deterministic models to calculate a project’s Net Present Value neglects the risky and uncertain nature of real life projects and consequently leads to useless valuation results. Realistic valuation models need to use probability density distributions for the input parameters and certain probabilities for the occurrence of specific events during the life time of a project in combination with the Monte Carlo Simulation method and the Decision Tree Analysis approach. After a short introduction a brief explanation of the traditional project valuation methods is given. The main focus of this work lies in using the Net Present Value method as a basic valuation tool in conjunction with the Monte Carlo Simulation technique and the Decision Tree Analysis approach to form a comprehensive method for project valuation under risk and uncertainty. The extensive project valuation methodology introduced is applied on two fictional projects, one from the pharmaceutical sector and one from the oil and gas exploration and production industry. Both industries deal with high risks, high uncertainties and high costs, but also high rewards. The example from the pharmaceutical industry illustrates very well how the application of the Monte Carlo Simulation and Decision Tree Analysis method, results in a well-diversified portfolio of new drugs with the highest reward at minimum possible risk. Applying the presented probabilistic project valuation approach on the oil exploration and production project shows how to reduce the risk of losing big.

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Page Count

110

Publisher

BoD – Books on Demand

Published Date

ISBN 10

3734755433

ISBN 13

9783734755439

The Despotate of Epiros 1267-1479

A Contribution to the History of Greece in the Middle Ages

By: Donald M. Nicol

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The Despotate of Epiros 1267-1479

A Contribution to the History of Greece in the Middle Ages

By: Donald M. Nicol

The district of Epiros in north-western Greece became an independent province following the Fourth Crusade and the dismemberment of the Byzantine Empire by the Latins in 1204. It retained its independence despite the recovery of Constantinople by the Greeks in 1261. Each of its rulers acquired the Byzantine titles of Despot, from which the term Despotate was coined to describe their territory. They preserved their autonomy partly by seeking support from their foreign neighbours in Italy. The fortunes of Epiros were thus affected by the expansionist plans of the Angevin kings of Naples and the commercial interests of Venice. Until 1318 it was governed by direct descendants of its Byzantine founder. Thereafter it was taken over first by the Italian family of Orsini, then conquered by the Serbians, infiltrated by the Albanians, and appropriated by an Italian adventurer, Carlo Tocco. Like the rest of Byzantium and eastern Europe it was ultimately absorbed into the Ottoman Empire in the fifteenth century. The Despotate of Epiros illuminates part of Byzantine history and of the history of Greece in the Middle Ages.

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Page Count

314

Publisher

Cambridge University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0521261902

ISBN 13

9780521261906

World War II Sea War, Volume 3: The Royal Navy is Bloodied in the Mediterranean

By: Donald A Bertke,Gordon Smith,Don Kindell

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World War II Sea War, Volume 3: The Royal Navy is Bloodied in the Mediterranean

By: Donald A Bertke,Gordon Smith,Don Kindell

Day-to-day naval actions from October 1940 through May 1941. Provides detailed information on movements of all identifiable vessels of Allied, Axis, and neutral countries, plus convoy movements and minefields. Information is broken down by month, then by geographical area, date, and time. This series is an invaluable source for historians, students, and anyone interested in the naval history of World War II.

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Page Count

562

Publisher

Lulu.com

Published Date

ISBN 10

1937470016

ISBN 13

9781937470012

Book's by Donald Dibra

Project Valuation and Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty applying Decision Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

Project Valuation and Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty applying Decision Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation

The Despotate of Epiros 1267-1479

The Despotate of Epiros 1267-1479

World War II Sea War, Volume 3: The Royal Navy is Bloodied in the Mediterranean

World War II Sea War, Volume 3: The Royal Navy is Bloodied in the Mediterranean

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