A crisis is coming for everyone who uses math and science. For decades now, the classical model of probability (the indifference principle and the Gaussian distribution) has been breaking down and revealing its limitations in fields from economics to epidemiology. Now a new approach has revealed the underlying non-classical principle behind all these 'anomalous' laws: — Pareto’s law of elite incomes — Zipf’s law of word frequencies — Lotka’s law of scientific publications — Kleiber’s law of metabolic rates — the Clausewitz-Dupuy law of combat friction — Moore’s law of computing costs — the Wright-Henderson cost law — Weibull’s law of electronics failures — the Flynn Effect in IQ scores — Benford’s law of digit frequencies — Farr’s law of epidemics — Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity — Rogers’ law of innovation classes — Wilson’s law of island biogeography — Smeed’s law of traffic fatalities The general law behind all these particular laws (and countless others) is the "decline effect". As a system ages or grows in size, the rules of probability subtly change. Entropy increases, rare items become rarer, and average performance measures decline. The human meaning of a decline may be positive (decreasing costs, falling epidemic mortality) or negative (lower customer loyalty, decreasing efficiency), but the mathematical pattern is always the same. The implications are enormous, as these examples show: All epidemic diseases decline in infectiousness and in lethality. HIV-AIDS went from a highly infectious, 95-percent fatal disease, to a survivable condition with a latency of decades. COVID-19 went from a death rate of 7 percent in early 2020, to under 2 percent in 2022. Hereditary dynasties around the world declined smoothly in lifespan, from hundreds of years to tens of years. When democracies replaced monarchies, the decline (in spans of party control) continued.
This book chronicles two people who were eyewitnesses and participants in many of the transformations of the twentieth century. Their stories have been pieced together from letters, journals, newspapers, and interviews. Those who knew Lillis and George will recognize them in these pages.
When survival is challenged by the cold, animals react by employing both behavioral and physiological solutions. Depending on the magni tude of the cold stress and the nature of the adjustment, simple avoidance or sophisticated capacity or resistance compensations may be used. Thus, migration, shelter seeking, metabolic and insulative compen sation, torpor, and freezing avoidance and tolerance are successful tac tics used by diverse groups of animals. To understand and appreciate the benefits of these tactics, it is necessary to examine not only the well being of the whole animal but also their basic underlying mechanisms. In ad dition, it is also of fundamental importance to grasp how seasonal cold affects the survivorship and reproductive success of populations when confronted by a general reduction in primary productivity and an elevated energy cost for maintenance (e. g. in endotherms). In this regard, a synthetic overview which integrates aspects of cell biology, biochem istry, physiology, neurobiology, behavior, and population biology should be a fruitful approach in providing a holistic understanding on how animals adapt to cold. The present volume is an attempt to achieve such an overview; its objective is to provide a depth and breadth of coverage that is essential to a full appreciation of animal adaptation to cold. It is the hope of the contributing authors that this book will serve as an effective reference text for all senior undergraduate and graduate students as well as research scientists with an interest in cold physiology.
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