David Winterfeldt's Books

The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War

By: David G. Herrmann

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The Arming of Europe and the Making of the First World War

By: David G. Herrmann

David Herrmann's work is the most complete study to date of how land-based military power influenced international affairs during the series of diplomatic crises that led up to the First World War. Instead of emphasizing the naval arms race, which has been extensively studied before, Herrmann draws on documentary research in military and state archives in Germany, France, Austria, England, and Italy to show the previously unexplored effects of changes in the strength of the European armies during this period. Herrmann's work provides not only a contribution to debates about the causes of the war but also an account of how the European armies adopted the new weaponry of the twentieth century in the decade before 1914, including quick-firing artillery, machine guns, motor transport, and aircraft. In a narrative account that runs from the beginning of a series of international crises in 1904 until the outbreak of the war, Herrmann points to changes in the balance of military power to explain why the war began in 1914, instead of at some other time. Russia was incapable of waging a European war in the aftermath of its defeat at the hands of Japan in 1904-5, but in 1912, when Russia appeared to be regaining its capacity to fight, an unprecedented land-armaments race began. Consequently, when the July crisis of 1914 developed, the atmosphere of military competition made war a far more likely outcome than it would have been a decade earlier.

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332

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Princeton University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0691201382

ISBN 13

9780691201382

Decision Science for Housing and Community Development

Localized and Evidence-Based Responses to Distressed Housing and Blighted Communities

By: Michael P. Johnson,Jeffrey M. Keisler,Senay Solak,David A. Turcotte,Armagan Bayram,Rachel Bogardus Drew

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Decision Science for Housing and Community Development

Localized and Evidence-Based Responses to Distressed Housing and Blighted Communities

By: Michael P. Johnson,Jeffrey M. Keisler,Senay Solak,David A. Turcotte,Armagan Bayram,Rachel Bogardus Drew

A multidisciplinary approach to problem-solving in community-based organizations using decision models and operations research applications A comprehensive treatment of public-sector operations research and management science, Decision Science for Housing and Community Development: Localized and Evidence-Based Responses to Distressed Housing and Blighted Communities addresses critical problems in urban housing and community development through a diverse set of decision models and applications. The book represents a bridge between theory and practice and is a source of collaboration between decision and data scientists and planners, advocates, and community practitioners. The book is motivated by the needs of community-based organizations to respond to neighborhood economic and social distress, represented by foreclosed, abandoned, and blighted housing, through community organizing, service provision, and local development. The book emphasizes analytic approaches that increase the ability of local practitioners to act quickly, thoughtfully, and effectively. By doing so, practitioners can design and implement responses that reflect stakeholder values associated with healthy and sustainable communities; that benefit from increased organizational capacity for evidence-based responses; and that result in solutions that represent improvements over the status quo according to multiple social outcome measures. Featuring quantitative and qualitative analytic methods as well as prescriptive and exploratory decision modeling, the book also includes: Discussions of the principles of decision theory and descriptive analysis to describe ways to identify and quantify values and objectives for community development Mathematical programming applications for real-world problem solving in foreclosed housing acquisition and redevelopment Applications of case studies and community-engaged research principles to analytics and decision modeling Decision Science for Housing and Community Development: Localized and Evidence-Based Responses to Distressed Housing and Blighted Communities is an ideal textbook for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses in decision models and applications; humanitarian logistics; nonprofit operations management; urban operations research; public economics; performance management; urban studies; public policy; urban and regional planning; and systems design and optimization. The book is also an excellent reference for academics, researchers, and practitioners in operations research, management science, operations management, systems engineering, policy analysis, city planning, and data analytics.

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416

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John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

1118975014

ISBN 13

9781118975015

The Empire of Time

Roads to Moscow: Book One

By: David Wingrove

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The Empire of Time

Roads to Moscow: Book One

By: David Wingrove

There is only the war. Otto Behr is a German agent, fighting his Russian counterparts across three millennia, manipulating history for moments in time that can change everything. Only the remnants of two great nations stand and for Otto, the war is life itself, the last hope for his people. But in a world where realities shift and memory is never constant, nothing is certain, least of all the chance of a future with his Russian love...

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498

Publisher

Random House

Published Date

ISBN 10

1448177561

ISBN 13

9781448177561

Risk Management

Volume I: Theories, Cases, Policies and Politics

By: Gerald Mars,David T. H. Weir

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Risk Management

Volume I: Theories, Cases, Policies and Politics

By: Gerald Mars,David T. H. Weir

First published in 2000, Risk Management is a two volume set, comprised of the most significant and influential articles by the leading authorities in the studies of risk management. The volumes includes a full-length introduction from the editor, an internationally recognized expert, and provides an authoritative guide to the selection of essays chosen, and to the wider field itself. The collections of essays are both international and interdisciplinary in scope and provide an entry point for investigating the myriad of study within the discipline.

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588

Publisher

Routledge

Published Date

ISBN 10

1000008355

ISBN 13

9781000008357

The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning

By: David A. Schum

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The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning

By: David A. Schum

In this work Schum develops a general theory of evidence as it is understood and applied across a broad range of disciplines and practical undertakings. He include insights from law, philosophy, logic, probability, semiotics, artificial intelligence, psychology and history.

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572

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Northwestern University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0810118211

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9780810118218

Decision-Analytic Intelligent Systems

Automated Explanation and Knowledge Acquisition

By: David A. Klein

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Decision-Analytic Intelligent Systems

Automated Explanation and Knowledge Acquisition

By: David A. Klein

This book presents a framework for building intelligent systems based on the mathematical decision models of Decision Analysis. The author provides new techniques for automated explanation and knowledge acquisition in formally sound systems that reason about complex tradeoffs in decisions. Also included are specifications for implementing these techniques in computer programs, along with demonstration applications in marketing, process control, and medicine. Readers with an interest in artificial intelligence will gain a foundation for building formally justifiable, intelligible, modifiable systems for computing decisions involving multiple considerations, with applications across a variety of domains. Beyond decision models, the methodology of the work reported suggests a more general approach to employing formal mathematical models in transparent intelligent systems. Decision-analysis experts will find a collection of methods for explaining decision-analytic advice to clients in intuitive terms, for simplifying parameter assessment, and for managing changing preferences over time. The book provides sufficient background material to promote understanding by readers who may be unfamiliar with artificial intelligence, with decision analysis, or with both fields, and such material is labeled to increase the well-versed reader's efficiency in skipping particular sections.

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229

Publisher

Psychology Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1134768532

ISBN 13

9781134768530

Antineoplastic and Immunosuppressive Agents

Part II

By: Alan C. Sartorelli,David G. Johns

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Antineoplastic and Immunosuppressive Agents

Part II

By: Alan C. Sartorelli,David G. Johns

Over the past two decades a number of attempts have been made, with varying degrees of success, to collect in a single treatise available information on the basic and applied pharmacology and biochemical mechanism of action of antineoplastic and immunosuppressive agents. The logarithmic growth of knowledge in this field has made it progressively more difficult to do justice to all aspects of this topic, and it is possible that the present handbook, more than four years in preparation, may be the last attempt to survey in a single volume the entire field of drugs employed in cancer chemotherapy and immunosuppression. Even in the present instance, it has proved necessary for practical reasons to publish the material in two parts, although the plan of the work constitutes, at least in the editors' view, a single integrated treatment of this research area. A number of factors have contributed to the continuous expansion of research in the areas of cancer chemotherapy and immunosuppression. Active compounds have been emerging at ever-increasing rates from experimental tumor screening systems maintained by a variety of private and governmental laboratories through out the world. At the molecular level, knowledge of the modes of action of established agents has continued to expand, and has permitted rational drug design to play a significantly greater role in a process which, in its early years, depended almost completely upon empirical and fortuitous observations.

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1100

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Springer Science & Business Media

Published Date

ISBN 10

3642658067

ISBN 13

9783642658068

Uncertain Judgements

Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

By: Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow

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Uncertain Judgements

Eliciting Experts' Probabilities

By: Anthony O'Hagan,Caitlin E. Buck,Alireza Daneshkhah,J. Richard Eiser,Paul H. Garthwaite,David J. Jenkinson,Jeremy E. Oakley,Tim Rakow

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

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338

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John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

0470033304

ISBN 13

9780470033302

Structured Decision Making

Case Studies in Natural Resource Management

By: David R. Smith

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Structured Decision Making

Case Studies in Natural Resource Management

By: David R. Smith

Provides and analyzes real examples of how structured decision making (SDM) can help solve complex problems involving natural resources. When faced with complicated, potentially controversial decisions that affect our environment, many resource management agencies have come to realize the value of structured decision making (SDM)—the systematic use of principles and tools of decision analysis. Few professionals, however, have extensive experience implementing SDM. Structured Decision Making provides key information to both current adopters of the method and those who are deploying it for the first time by demonstrating the formal use of decision analysis to support difficult, real-world natural resource management decisions. Drawing on case studies from multiple public agencies in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Mauritius, the editors present an overview of decision analysis, a classification of decision types, and a catalog of decision analysis methods. Dozens of detailed charts and maps help contextualize the material. These case studies examine a rich variety of topics, including • keeping forest birds free from disease • conserving imperiled freshwater mussels • managing water for oil sands mining • dealing with coastal wetlands in the face of sea-level rise • designing networks for prairie-dependent taxa • combatting invasive alpine shrubs • managing vernal pool habitats for obligate amphibian species • and much more Aimed at decision makers tackling natural resource challenges in government agencies around the world, as well as advanced undergraduate and graduate students preparing to work in natural resource management, Structured Decision Making shows how SDM can be implemented to achieve optimal outcomes that integrate social values and scientific understanding. Contributors: Taber D. Allison, Larissa L. Bailey, Ellen A. Bean, Clint W. Boal, Gregory Breese, Stefano Canessa, Jean Fitts Cochrane, Sarah J. Converse, Cami S. Dixon, John G. Ewen, Christelle Ferrière, Jill J. Gannon, Beth Gardner, Adam W. Green, Justin A. Gude, Victoria M. Hunt, Kevin S. Kalasz, Melinda G. Knutson, Jim Kraus, Graham Long, Eric V. Lonsdorf, James E. Lyons, Conor P. McGowan, Sarah E. McRae, Michael S. Mitchell, Clinton T. Moore, Joslin L. Moore, Steven Morey, Dan W. Ohlson, Charlie Pascoe, Andrew Paul, Eben H. Paxton, Lori B. Pruitt, Michael C. Runge, Sarah N. Sells, Terry L. Shaffer, Stephanie Slade, David R. Smith, Jennifer A. Szymanski, Terry Walshe, Nicolas Zuël

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285

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JHU Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1421437570

ISBN 13

9781421437576

Commercial Management

Theory and Practice

By: David Lowe

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Commercial Management

Theory and Practice

By: David Lowe

Commercial Management: theory and practice defines the role of commercial management within project-oriented organisations, providing a framework for and helping to develop a critical understanding of the factors that influence commercial management practice. It also identifies generic aspects of this practice and provides a theoretical foundation to these activities, by reference to existing and emergent theories and concepts, as well as to relevant management best practice. The book is structured into four parts: Part 1 Introduction – Commercial Management in Project Environments explores the nature of commercial practice within project-oriented organisations at the buyer-seller interface. It presents a Commercial Management framework, which illustrates the multiple interactions and connections between the purchaser‘s procurement cycle and a supplier‘s bidding and implementation cycles. Additionally, it outlines the principle activities undertaken by the commercial function, identifies the skills and abilities that support these activities and reviews the theories and concepts that underpin commercial practice. Finally, it identifies areas of commonality of practice with other functions found within project-oriented organisations, plus sources of potential conflict and misunderstanding. Part 2 – Elements of Commercial Theory and Practice covers commercial leadership; exploring strategy; risk and uncertainty management; financial decision-making; and key legal issues. Part 3 – Approaches to Commercial Practice addresses best practice management; and commercial and contracting strategies and tactics. Finally, Part 4 – Case Studies offers two extended case studies: Football Stadia (the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff; the Emirates Stadium, Islington; and Wembley Stadium, London); and Heathrow Terminal 5. The book provides a one-stop-shop to the many topics that underpin commercial management practice from both a demand (buy-side) and a supply (sell-side) perspective. It will help develop an understanding of the issues influencing commercial management: leadership, strategy, risk, financial, legal, best practice management and commercial and contracting strategy and tactics. This book’s companion website is at www.wiley.com/go/lowecommercialmanagement and offers invaluable resources for both students and lecturers: • PowerPoint slides for lecturers on each chapter • Sample exam questions for students to practice • Weblinks to key journals and relevant professional bodies

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533

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John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

1118486129

ISBN 13

9781118486122

Decision Aids for Selection Problems

By: David L. Olson

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Decision Aids for Selection Problems

By: David L. Olson

One of the most important tasks faced by decision-makers in business and government is that of selection. Selection problems are challenging in that they require the balancing of multiple, often conflicting, criteria. In recent years, a number of interesting decision aids have become available to assist in such decisions. The aim of this book is to provide a comparative survey of many of the decision aids currently available. The first chapters present general ideas which underpin the methodologies used to design these aids. Subsequent chapters then focus on specific decision aids and demonstrate some of the software which implement these ideas. A final chapter provides a comparative analysis of their strengths and weaknesses.

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206

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Springer Science & Business Media

Published Date

ISBN 10

1461239826

ISBN 13

9781461239826

Decision Analysis for Managers, Second Edition

A Guide for Making Better Personal and Business Decisions

By: David Charlesworth

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Decision Analysis for Managers, Second Edition

A Guide for Making Better Personal and Business Decisions

By: David Charlesworth

Everybody has to make decisions-they are unavoidable. However, we receive little or no education or training on how to make decisions. Business decisions are difficult: which people to hire, which product lines or facilities to expand, which proposal to accept, how much R&D to invest in, which environmental projects are high priority, etc. Personal decisions (college, getting married, changing jobs, buying a house, retiring, dealing with a health problem) can be even more difficult. This book gives you the tools you need toÉClarify and reach alignment on goals and objectives; Understand trade-offs associated with reaching those objectives; Develop and examine alternatives; Systematically analyze the effects of risk and uncertainty, and; Maximize the chances of achieving your goals. Success (getting what you want) depends on luck and good decision-making. You can't control your luck, but you can maximize your odds by making the best possible decisions, and this book gets you there. The author organizes and presents otherwise formal decision-making tools in an intuitively understandable fashion. The presentation is informal, but the concepts and tools are research-based and formally accepted. Whether you are a business owner, a manager or team leader, or a senior professional, these tools will help both your personal and your business life.

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133

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Business Expert Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1631576054

ISBN 13

9781631576058

Straight Choices

The Psychology of Decision Making

By: Ben R. Newell,David A. Lagnado,David R. Shanks

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Straight Choices

The Psychology of Decision Making

By: Ben R. Newell,David A. Lagnado,David R. Shanks

Should I have this medical treatment or that one? Is this computer a better buy than that one? Should I invest in shares or keep my money under the bed? We all face a perplexing array of decisions every day. Thoroughly revised and updated throughout, the new edition of Straight Choices provides an integrative account of the psychology of decision-making, and shows how psychological research can help us understand our uncertain world. Straight Choices emphasises the relationship between learning and decision-making, arguing that the best way to understand how and why decisions are made is in the context of the learning and knowledge acquisition which precedes them, and the feedback which follows. The mechanisms of learning and the structure of environments in which decisions are made are carefully examined to explore their impact on our choices. The authors then consider whether we are all constrained to fall prey to cognitive biases, or whether, with sufficient exposure, we can find optimal decision strategies and improve our decision making. Featuring three completely new chapters, this edition also contains student-friendly overviews and recommended readings in each chapter. It will be of interest to students and researchers in cognitive psychology, behavioral economics, and the decision sciences, as well as anyone interested in the nature of decision making.

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319

Publisher

Psychology Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1317538862

ISBN 13

9781317538868

Adversarial Risk Analysis

By: David L. Banks,Jesus M. Rios Aliaga,David Rios Insua

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Adversarial Risk Analysis

By: David L. Banks,Jesus M. Rios Aliaga,David Rios Insua

Winner of the 2017 De Groot Prize awarded by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA)A relatively new area of research, adversarial risk analysis (ARA) informs decision making when there are intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. Adversarial Risk Analysis develops methods for allocating defensive or offensive resources against

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220

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CRC Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1498712401

ISBN 13

9781498712408

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence

By: Joseph B. Kadane,David A. Schum

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A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence

By: Joseph B. Kadane,David A. Schum

A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence is aBayesian analysis of the trial and post-trial evidence in the Saccoand Vanzetti case, based on subjectively determined probabilitiesand assumed relationships among evidential events. It applies theideas of charting evidence and probabilistic assessment to thiscase, which is perhaps the ranking cause celebre in all of Americanlegal history. Modern computation methods applied to inferencenetworks are used to show how the inferential force of evidence ina complicated case can be graded. The authors employ probabilisticassessment to obtain opinions about how influential each group ofevidential items is in reaching a conclusion about the defendants'innocence or guilt. A Probabilistic Analysis of the Sacco and Vanzetti Evidence holdsparticular interest for statisticians and probabilists in academiaand legal consulting, as well as for the legal community,historians, and behavioral scientists. It combines structural andprobabilistic ideas in the analysis of masses of evidence fromevery recognized logical species of evidence. Twenty-eight chartsshow the chains of reasoning in defense of the relevance ofevidentiary matters and a listing of trial witnesses who providedthe evidence. References include nearly 300 items drawn from thefields of probability theory, history, law, artificialintelligence, psychology, literature, and other areas.

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392

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John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

1118186443

ISBN 13

9781118186442

Additive and Polynomial Representations

By: David H. Krantz,Patrick Suppes,R. Duncan Luce

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Additive and Polynomial Representations

By: David H. Krantz,Patrick Suppes,R. Duncan Luce

All of the sciences — physical, biological, and social — have a need for quantitative measurement. This influential series, Foundations of Measurement, established the formal foundations for measurement, justifying the assignment of numbers to objects in terms of their structural correspondence. Volume I introduces the distinct mathematical results that serve to formulate numerical representations of qualitative structures. Volume II extends the subject in the direction of geometrical, threshold, and probabilistic representations, and Volume III examines representation as expressed in axiomatization and invariance.

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626

Publisher

Courier Corporation

Published Date

ISBN 10

0486453146

ISBN 13

9780486453149

Entrepreneurial Financial Management

An Applied Approach

By: Jeffrey R. Cornwall,David O. Vang,Jean M. Hartman

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Entrepreneurial Financial Management

An Applied Approach

By: Jeffrey R. Cornwall,David O. Vang,Jean M. Hartman

This new edition presents an applied, realistic view of entrepreneurial finance for today's entrepreneur. The book provides an integrated set of concepts and applications, drawing from entrepreneurship, finance, and accounting. The book's contents are designed to follow the life cycle of a new business venture. Topics are presented in a logical order, as entrepreneurs will likely face them as they begin the process of business start-up and move into growing the business. Key changes to this edition include: --Added material on how the book's financial templates align with business modeling. --The impact of the 2008 recession and its economic realities are addressed throughout the book. --The Millennial Generation's unique aspirations and goals are discussed in terms of entrepreneurship. --The debt and equity financing section has been updated to reflect changes in regulations and evolving investor expectations. --The bootstrapping chapter has been revised to reflect the explosion of social media and its impact on bootstrap marketing. --The impact of the 2008 recession on the exit process for entrepreneurs. A comprehensive spreadsheet financial template is included with the book. This tool allows for the application of many of the concepts to actual businesses, and will be a valuable supplement to the process of developing a full business plan. The spreadsheet financial templates are available for unlimited free downloads at www.drjeffcornwall.com.

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315

Publisher

M.E. Sharpe

Published Date

ISBN 10

076563791X

ISBN 13

9780765637918

TOPSIS and its Extensions: A Distance-Based MCDM Approach

By: Hsu-Shih Shih,David L. Olson

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TOPSIS and its Extensions: A Distance-Based MCDM Approach

By: Hsu-Shih Shih,David L. Olson

The objective of the book is to provide materials to demonstrate the development of TOPSIS and to serve as a handbook. It contains the basic process of TOPSIS, numerous variant processes, property explanations, theoretical developments, and illustrative examples with real-world cases. Possible readers would be graduate students, researchers, analysts, and professionals who are interested in TOPSIS, a distance-based algorithm, and who would like to compare TOPSIS with other MCDM methods. The book serves as a research reference as well as a self-learning book with step-by-step illustrations for the MCDM community.

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230

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Springer Nature

Published Date

ISBN 10

3031095774

ISBN 13

9783031095771

Precautionary Reasoning in Environmental and Public Health Policy

By: David B. Resnik

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Precautionary Reasoning in Environmental and Public Health Policy

By: David B. Resnik

This book fills a gap in the literature on the Precautionary Principle by placing the principle within the wider context of precautionary reasoning and uses philosophical arguments and case studies to demonstrate when it does—and does not—apply. The book invites the reader to take a step back from the controversy surrounding the Precautionary Principle and consider the overarching rationales for responding to threats to the environment or public health. It provides practical guidance and probing insight for the intended audience, including scholars, students, journalists, and policymakers.

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349

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Springer Nature

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ISBN 10

3030707911

ISBN 13

9783030707910

Rationality and Reasoning

By: Jonathon St. B.T. Evans,David E. Over

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Rationality and Reasoning

By: Jonathon St. B.T. Evans,David E. Over

This book addresses an apparent paradox in the psychology of thinking. On the one hand, human beings are a highly successful species. On the other, intelligent adults are known to exhibit numerous errors and biases in laboratory studies of reasoning and decision making. There has been much debate among both philosophers and psychologists about the implications of such studies for human rationality. The authors argue that this debate is marked by a confusion between two distinct notions: (a) personal rationality (rationality1 Evans and Over argue that people have a high degree of rationality1 but only a limited capacity for rationality2. The book re-interprets the psychological literature on reasoning and decision making, showing that many normative errors, by abstract standards, reflect the operation of processes that would normally help to achieve ordinary goals. Topics discussed include relevance effects in reasoning and decision making, the influence of prior beliefs on thinking, and the argument that apparently non-logical reasoning can reflect efficient decision making. The authors also discuss the problem of deductive competence - whether people have it, and what mechanism can account for it. As the book progresses, increasing emphasis is given to the authors' dual process theory of thinking, in which a distinction between tacit and explicit cognitive systems is developed. It is argued that much of human capacity for rationality1 is invested in tacit cognitive processes, which reflect both innate mechanisms and biologically constrained learning. However, the authors go on to argue that human beings also possess an explicit thinking system, which underlies their unique - if limited - capacity to be rational.

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192

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Psychology Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1135472319

ISBN 13

9781135472313

What Can We Really Know?

The Strengths and Limits of Human Understanding

By: David R. Andersen,Angus J.L. Menuge

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What Can We Really Know?

The Strengths and Limits of Human Understanding

By: David R. Andersen,Angus J.L. Menuge

Today, it's not uncommon to get the impression that our claims to know are either doomed before they begin or that they have a status that approaches certainty. The pendulum seems to swing from one end to the other, with our educational institutions too often perpetuating both depending on the person being asked. Yet the question of how and if our claims to know are really justified remains central. * Is knowledge a purely social construct without any objective basis, as many claim? * Or, if we do have some basis to believe some of our claims, are we justified in holding those claims with an attitude of certainty, as others in today's environment seem to imply? * And what role do our quick judgments play in those claims? From the tenor of our public debates, one could easily be left with the suspicion that either we can't know anything or that whatever the present state of knowledge is shouldn't be questioned. What Can We Really Know? The Strengths and Limits of Human Understanding aims to bring some balance to the topic, and argues that while we do have reason to believe that a great many of our claims are justified, it's also true that much of what passes for knowledge is a social product and therefore vulnerable to future revision. Exploring how knowledge can be understood, how far science can take us and what its limitations might be, and the status of some of the most recent arguments for God's existence, it will be suggested that a healthy dose of humility should be reincorporated in our public and private debates.

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326

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New Reformation Publications

Published Date

ISBN 10

1956658599

ISBN 13

9781956658590

Sensitivity Analysis in Multi-objective Decision Making

By: David Rios Insua

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Sensitivity Analysis in Multi-objective Decision Making

By: David Rios Insua

The axiomatic foundations of the Bayesian approach to decision making assurne precision in the decision maker's judgements. In practicc, dccision makers often provide only partial and/or doubtful information. We unify and expand results to deal with those cases introducing a general framework for sensitivity analysis in multi-objective decision making. We study first decision making problems under partial information. We provide axioms leading to modelling preferences by families of value functions, in problems under certainty, and moJelling beliefs by families of probability distributions and preferences by familics of utility functions, in problems under uncertainty. Both problems are treated in parallel with the same parametric model. Alternatives are ordered in a Pareto sense, the solution of the problem being the set of non dominated alternatives. Potentially optimal solutions also seem acceptable, from an intuitive point of view and due to their relation with the nondominated ones. Algorithms are provided to compute these solutions in general problems and in cases typical in practice: linear and bilinear problems. Other solution concepts are criticised on the grounds of being ad hoc. In summary, we have a more ro bust theory of decision making based on a weaker set ofaxioms, but embodying coherence, since it essentially implies carrying out a family of coherent dccision anitlyses.

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204

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Springer Science & Business Media

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ISBN 10

3642516564

ISBN 13

9783642516566

Making Data Talk

The Science and Practice of Translating Public Health Research and Surveillance Findings to Policy Makers, the Public, and the Press

By: David E Nelson,Bradford W Hesse,Robert T Croyle

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Making Data Talk

The Science and Practice of Translating Public Health Research and Surveillance Findings to Policy Makers, the Public, and the Press

By: David E Nelson,Bradford W Hesse,Robert T Croyle

The demand for health information continues to increase, but the ability of health professionals to provide it clearly remains variable. The aim of this book is (1) to summarize and synthesize research on the selection and presentation of data pertinent to public health, and (2) to provide practical suggestions, based on this research summary and synthesis, on how scientists and other public health practitioners can better communicate data to the public, policy makers, and the press in typical real-world situations. Because communication is complex and no one approach works for all audiences, the authors emphasize how to communicate data "better" (and in some instances, contrast this with how to communicate data "worse"), rather than attempting a cookbook approach. The book contains a wealth of case studies and other examples to illustrate major points, and actual situations whenever possible. Key principles and recommendations are summarized at the end of each chapter. This book will stimulate interest among public health practitioners, scholars, and students to more seriously consider ways they can understand and improve communication about data and other types of scientific information with the public, policy makers, and the press. Improved data communication will increase the chances that evidence-based scientific findings can play a greater role in improving the public's health.

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344

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Oxford University Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

0199700729

ISBN 13

9780199700721

Behind Human Error

By: Dr Leila Johannesen,Dr Nadine Sarter,Dr Richard Cook,Professor Sidney Dekker,Professor David D Woods

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Behind Human Error

By: Dr Leila Johannesen,Dr Nadine Sarter,Dr Richard Cook,Professor Sidney Dekker,Professor David D Woods

Human error is so often cited as a cause of accidents. There is perception of a 'human error problem'. Solutions are thought to lie in changing the people or their role. The label 'human error', however, is prejudicial and hides more than it reveals about how a system malfunctions. This book takes you behind the label. It explains how human error results from social and psychological judgments by the system's stakeholders that focus only on one facet of a set of interacting contributors.

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302

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Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.

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ISBN 10

1409486389

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9781409486381

Decision Analysis for Managers

A Guide for Making Better Personal and Business Decisions

By: David Charlesworth

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Decision Analysis for Managers

A Guide for Making Better Personal and Business Decisions

By: David Charlesworth

Everybody has to make decisions—they are unavoidable. Yet we receive little or no education or training on how to make decisions. Business decisions can be dif_ cult: which people to hire, which product lines or facilities to expand and which to sell or shut down, which bid or proposal to accept, which process to implement, how much R&D to invest in, which environmental projects should receive the highest priority, etc. This book gives you all the tools you need to... • clarify and reach alignment on goals and objectives and understand trade-offs in reaching those goals, • develop and examine alternatives, • systematically analyze the effects of risk and uncertainty, and • maximize the chances of achieving your goals and objectives. Success (getting what you want) depends on luck and good decision making. You can’t control your luck, but you can maximize your odds by making the best possible decisions, and this book gets you there. Broadly speaking, this book organizes and presents otherwise formal decision-making tools in an intuitively understandable fashion. The presentation is informal, but the concepts and tools are research-based and formally accepted.

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144

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Business Expert Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1606494899

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9781606494899

With Our Backs to the Wall

Victory and Defeat in 1918

By: David Stevenson

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With Our Backs to the Wall

Victory and Defeat in 1918

By: David Stevenson

With so much at stake and so much already lost, why did World War I end with a whimper-an arrangement between two weary opponents to suspend hostilities? After more than four years of desperate fighting, with victories sometimes measured in feet and inches, why did the Allies reject the option of advancing into Germany in 1918 and taking Berlin? Most histories of the Great War focus on the avoidability of its beginning. This book brings a laser-like focus to its ominous end-the Allies' incomplete victory, and the tragic ramifications for world peace just two decades later. In the most comprehensive account to date of the conflict's endgame, David Stevenson approaches the events of 1918 from a truly international perspective, examining the positions and perspectives of combatants on both sides, as well as the impact of the Russian Revolution. Stevenson pays close attention to America's effort in its first twentieth-century war, including its naval and military contribution, army recruitment, industrial mobilization, and home-front politics. Alongside military and political developments, he adds new information about the crucial role of economics and logistics. The Allies' eventual success, Stevenson shows, was due to new organizational methods of managing men and materiel and to increased combat effectiveness resulting partly from technological innovation. These factors, combined with Germany's disastrous military offensive in spring 1918, ensured an Allied victory-but not a conclusive German defeat.

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444

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Harvard University Press

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ISBN 10

0674267591

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9780674267596

The Papers of Dwight David Eisenhower

The Presidency: Keeping the Peace

By: Dwight David Eisenhower,Louis Galambos

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The Papers of Dwight David Eisenhower

The Presidency: Keeping the Peace

By: Dwight David Eisenhower,Louis Galambos

Contains primary source material.

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777

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JHU Press

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ISBN 10

0801867185

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9780801867187

Brand Risk

Adding Risk Literacy to Brand Management

By: David Abrahams

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Brand Risk

Adding Risk Literacy to Brand Management

By: David Abrahams

Brand risk is often narrowly defined as risk to reputation. Yet risk and uncertainty are evident in many aspects of brand performance and marketing operations. Considered and responsible risk-taking is central to effective brand management. Risk literacy is the marketer’s third necessary competence, alongside strategic insight and financial understanding. In Brand Risk, a practical and accessible book for those who hold responsibilities in marketing or risk management, David Abrahams brings together relevant risk thinking and a range of techniques for the evaluation of brand exposures and opportunities - whether in response to the ambitions of a key business project, new market conditions or shareholder concern. A balanced review of the subject is enriched by reference to topics of current interest and is supported by illustrative examples throughout. Presenting the essentials of brand management and risk management side-by-side, Brand Risk offers graduated and complementary approaches to brand risk assessment, from the intuitive to the data-driven.

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225

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CRC Press

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ISBN 10

1317172752

ISBN 13

9781317172758

Food Chemical Risk Analysis

By: David R. Tennant

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Food Chemical Risk Analysis

By: David R. Tennant

Food Chemical Risk Analysis provides an introduction to the sciences of food chemistry and risk analysis and demonstrates how the potential hazards associated with food chemicals can be assessed and managed. Food scares are never far from the news and particular attention is therefore focused on the consumer perception of risk and risk communication. Leading international experts provide unique insights in the future of food chemical risk analysis. Chapters on alternatives to animal testing show how emerging methods offer the prospect of a more rational human-based approach to toxicity testing. Discussions about relative risks and protective factors highlight the possibility that risks from food can be over-estimated and approaches to avoid such risks are proposed. The science of risk management is presented as more than just a method for translating science into policy by demonstrating how social, psychological, economic ethical and other factors can, and should be taken into account. The book makes it clear that if risk communication is to be effective, an integrated approach to risk analysis must be adopted.

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486

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Springer Science & Business Media

Published Date

ISBN 10

146131111X

ISBN 13

9781461311119

Asymmetric Synthetic Methodology

By: David John Ager,Michael B. East

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Asymmetric Synthetic Methodology

By: David John Ager,Michael B. East

This comprehensive text presents a critical discussion of the scopes and limitations of various organic synthetic methodologies that are available for performing asymmetric transformations. In addition to purely chemical methods, the book covers applications of new enzymes and other biological systems that are increasingly useful in asymmetric methodology.

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505

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CRC Press

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ISBN 10

1000098494

ISBN 13

9781000098495

Multiple Criteria Analysis in Strategic Siting Problems

By: Oleg I. Larichev,David L. Olson

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Multiple Criteria Analysis in Strategic Siting Problems

By: Oleg I. Larichev,David L. Olson

1 Facility Location Problems The location problem has been with humans for all of their history. In the past, many rulers had the decision of locating their capital. Reasons for selecting various locations included central location,transportation benefits to foster trade, and defensibility. The development of industry involved location problems for production facilities and trade outlets. Obvious th criteria for location ofbusiness facilities includedprofit impact. In the 19 century, there seemed to be a focus on the cost of transporting raw materials versus the cost of transporting goods to consumers. Location decisions were made considering all potential gains and expenses. Some judgment was required, because while most benefits and costs could be measured accurately, not all could be. Successful business practice depended on the soundjudgment of the decision-maker in solvinglocation problems. Each of these enterprises produced some wastes. Finding a location to dispose of these wastes was not a difficult task. In less-enlightened times, governments resorted to fiat and land-condemnationto take the sites needed th for disposal. In the 19 century, industry grew rapidly in Great Britain and elsewhere as mass production served expanding populations of consumers. The by-products of mass-production were often simply discarded in the most expeditious manner. There are still mountains in the United States Introduction 2 with artificial facades created from the excess material discarded from mining activity. We have developed the ability to create waste of lethal toxicity.

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223

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Springer Science & Business Media

Published Date

ISBN 10

1475732457

ISBN 13

9781475732450

The Enemy of Good

Estimating the Cost of Waiting for Nearly Perfect Automated Vehicles

By: Nidhi Kalra,David G. Groves

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The Enemy of Good

Estimating the Cost of Waiting for Nearly Perfect Automated Vehicles

By: Nidhi Kalra,David G. Groves

How safe should highly automated vehicles (HAVs) be before they are allowed on the roads for consumer use? In this report, RAND researchers use the RAND Model of Automated Vehicle Safety to compare road fatalities over time under a policy that allows HAVs to be deployed when their safety performance is just moderately better than human drivers and a policy that waits to deploy HAVs only once their performance is nearly perfect.

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Rand Corporation

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ISBN 10

1977400019

ISBN 13

9781977400017

Artificial Intelligence Frontiers in Statistics

Al and Statistics III

By: David J. Hand

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Artificial Intelligence Frontiers in Statistics

Al and Statistics III

By: David J. Hand

This book presents a summary of recent work on the interface between artificial intelligence and statistics. It does this through a series of papers by different authors working in different areas of this interface. These papers are a selected and referenced subset of papers presented at the 3rd Interntional Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, Florida, January 1991.

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432

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CRC Press

Published Date

ISBN 10

1000109879

ISBN 13

9781000109870

Human Reliability and Safety Analysis Data Handbook

By: David I. Gertman,Harold S. Blackman

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Human Reliability and Safety Analysis Data Handbook

By: David I. Gertman,Harold S. Blackman

Takes into account the human element as well as the classical aspects of mechanical, electrical and chemical designs that contribute to risk. Features a significant amount of data essential for risk analysis not normally available. Contains numerous examples of authentic applications and case studies.

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480

Publisher

John Wiley & Sons

Published Date

ISBN 10

0471591106

ISBN 13

9780471591108

Final Solution

The Fate of the Jews 1933-1949

By: David Cesarani

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Final Solution

The Fate of the Jews 1933-1949

By: David Cesarani

The first year 1933 -- Judenpolitik, 1934-1938 -- Pogrom ,1938-1939 -- War, 1939-1941 -- Barbarossa, 1941 -- Final solution, 1942 -- Total war, 1943 -- The last phase, 1944-1945.

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1082

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Macmillan

Published Date

ISBN 10

1250000831

ISBN 13

9781250000835

Enterprise Risk Management Models

Focus on Sustainability

By: David L. Olson,Desheng Wu

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Enterprise Risk Management Models

Focus on Sustainability

By: David L. Olson,Desheng Wu

This textbook, now in its fourth edition, serves as a comprehensive guide to learning various aspects of risk, encompassing supply chain management, artificial intelligence, and sustainability. It demonstrates a wide range of operations research models that have been successfully applied to enterprise supply chain risk management. Each chapter of the book can function as a standalone module focusing on a specific topic, offering dedicated examples, definitions, and discussion notes. The publication of this book comes at a crucial time when the world is facing increasing challenges from various forms of risk. Events such as Covid-19, the energy crisis, wars, and terrorism in the 21st century have all disrupted supply chains, thus highlighting the critical importance of enterprise risk management. Additional risks, such as financial and technological bubbles, along with concerns surrounding rampant artificial intelligence, contribute to a climate that demands enhanced risk management within organizations.

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Page Count

250

Publisher

Springer Nature

Published Date

ISBN 10

3662680386

ISBN 13

9783662680384

Book's by David Winterfeldt

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