A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reworking of the science of prediction In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance. The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction’s reliability. Prediction Revisited also offers: Clarifications of commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statistics Insight into the efficacy of traditional prediction models in a variety of fields Colorful biographical sketches of some of the key prediction scientists throughout history Mutually supporting conceptual and mathematical descriptions of the key insights and methods discussed within With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is sure to earn its place as an indispensable resource for data scientists, researchers, investors, and anyone else who aspires to predict the future from the data-driven lessons of the past.
A Clinician's Guide to Integrating Acceptance and Commitment Therapy, Compassion-Focused Therapy, and Mindfulness Approaches within the Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Tradition
A Clinician's Guide to Integrating Acceptance and Commitment Therapy, Compassion-Focused Therapy, and Mindfulness Approaches within the Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Tradition
Psychosis can be associated with a variety of mental health problems, including schizophrenia, severe depression, bipolar disorder, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorders. While traditional treatments for psychosis have emphasized medication-based strategies, evidence now suggests that individuals affected by psychosis can greatly benefit from psychotherapy. Treating Psychosis is an evidence-based treatment guide for mental health professionals working with individuals affected by psychosis. Using a cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) approach that incorporates acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT), compassion-focused therapy (CFT) and mindfulness approaches, this book is invaluable in helping clinicians develop effective treatment for clients affected by psychosis. The guide provides session-by-session clinical interventions for use in individual or group treatment on an inpatient, outpatient, or community basis. The book features 40 reproducible clinical practice forms and a companion website with additional downloadable clinical forms and tools, guided exercises, case examples, and resources. The therapeutic approaches presented are rooted in theory and research, and informed by extensive clinical experience working with client populations affected by psychosis. The approaches outlined in this book offer clinicians and clients the opportunity to partner in developing therapeutic strategies for problematic symptoms to enable those affected by psychosis to work toward valued goals and ultimately live more meaningful lives. This guide emphasizes a compassionate, de-stigmatizing approach that integrates empowering and strengths-oriented methods that place the client’s values and goals at the center of any therapeutic intervention.
Discover a masterful exploration of the fallacies and challenges of asset allocation In Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond—the newly and substantially revised Second Edition of A Practitioner’s Guide to Asset Allocation—accomplished finance professionals William Kinlaw, Mark P. Kritzman, and David Turkington deliver a robust and insightful exploration of the core tenets of asset allocation. Drawing on their experience working with hundreds of the world’s largest and most sophisticated investors, the authors review foundational concepts, debunk fallacies, and address cutting-edge themes like factor investing and scenario analysis. The new edition also includes references to related topics at the end of each chapter and a summary of key takeaways to help readers rapidly locate material of interest. The book also incorporates discussions of: The characteristics that define an asset class, including stability, investability, and similarity The fundamentals of asset allocation, including definitions of expected return, portfolio risk, and diversification Advanced topics like factor investing, asymmetric diversification, fat tails, long-term investing, and enhanced scenario analysis as well as tools to address challenges such as liquidity, rebalancing, constraints, and within-horizon risk. Perfect for client-facing practitioners as well as scholars who seek to understand practical techniques, Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond is a must-read resource from an author team of distinguished finance experts and a forward by Nobel prize winner Harry Markowitz.
Since the formalization of asset allocation in 1952 with the publication of Portfolio Selection by Harry Markowitz, there have been great strides made to enhance the application of this groundbreaking theory. However, progress has been uneven. It has been punctuated with instances of misleading research, which has contributed to the stubborn persistence of certain fallacies about asset allocation. A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation fills a void in the literature by offering a hands-on resource that describes the many important innovations that address key challenges to asset allocation and dispels common fallacies about asset allocation. The authors cover the fundamentals of asset allocation, including a discussion of the attributes that qualify a group of securities as an asset class and a detailed description of the conventional application of mean-variance analysis to asset allocation.. The authors review a number of common fallacies about asset allocation and dispel these misconceptions with logic or hard evidence. The fallacies debunked include such notions as: asset allocation determines more than 90% of investment performance; time diversifies risk; optimization is hypersensitive to estimation error; factors provide greater diversification than assets and are more effective at reducing noise; and that equally weighted portfolios perform more reliably out of sample than optimized portfolios. A Practitioner's Guide to Asset Allocation also explores the innovations that address key challenges to asset allocation and presents an alternative optimization procedure to address the idea that some investors have complex preferences and returns may not be elliptically distributed. Among the challenges highlighted, the authors explain how to overcome inefficiencies that result from constraints by expanding the optimization objective function to incorporate absolute and relative goals simultaneously. The text also explores the challenge of currency risk, describes how to use shadow assets and liabilities to unify liquidity with expected return and risk, and shows how to evaluate alternative asset mixes by assessing exposure to loss throughout the investment horizon based on regime-dependent risk. This practical text contains an illustrative example of asset allocation which is used to demonstrate the impact of the innovations described throughout the book. In addition, the book includes supplemental material that summarizes the key takeaways and includes information on relevant statistical and theoretical concepts, as well as a comprehensive glossary of terms.
A comprehensive guide designed to enable CBT practitioners to effectively engage people from diverse cultural backgrounds by applying culturally-sensitive therapeutic techniques Adapts core CBT techniques including reattribution, normalization, explanation development, formulating, reality testing, inference chaining and resetting expectations High profile author team includes specialists in culturally-sensitive CBT along with world-renowned pioneers in the application of CBT to serious mental illness Contains the most up-to-date research on CBT in ethnic minority groups available
Cognitive-behavioural therapy has been successfully employed in the treatment of such problems as depression, panic disorder and phobias. Providing an approach to patients with the most intractable problems, this book details the practical application of cognitive-behavioural therapy to the pervasive disorder of schizophrenia. The techniques described in this book, drawn from relevant theory and research, are designed to complement other treatments for schizophrenia, including medication, rehabilitation and family therapies.; Making a clear distinction between the diagnosis of schizophrenia and the debilitating label of insanity, the authors contend that people with this disorder are not inherently irrational but instead suffer from a circumscribed set of irrational beliefs. The book presents easily learned techniques that professionals can employ to help patients alleviate the impact of these beliefs, and start drawing upon the strengths and rationality they possess to improve their daily lives.; Illustrated with numerous case examples, this book describes how to: work with the person to construct credible explanations of distressing and disabling symptoms; explore the personal significance of life events and circumstances and their interactions with the person's strengths and vulnerabilities; introduce reality testing for hallucinations and delusions; disentangle thought Disorder And Ameliorate Negative Symptoms; And Demystify Psychotic symptoms for individuals and their families. The book also delineates the relationship of thought, identity, insight and coping strategies to schizophrenia.; This text should be of interest to professionals working with people suffering from schizophrenia - from psychologists, psychiatrists and residential care workers to social workers, occupational therapists and nursing staff - as well as to students in these fields.
Drawing on the authors' decades of influential work in the field, this highly practical volume presents an evidence-based cognitive therapy approach for clients with schizophrenia. Guidelines are provided for collaborative assessment and case formulation that enable the clinician to build a strong therapeutic relationship, establish reasonable goals, and tailor treatment to each client's needs. Described in thorough, step-by-step detail are effective techniques for working with delusional beliefs, voices, visions, thought disorders, and negative symptoms; integrating cognitive therapy with other forms of treatment; reducing relapse risks; and enhancing client motivation. Special features include reproducible client handouts and assessment tools.
The main principle behind cognitive behaviour therapy is that a client's emotional and behavioural disturbances are not determined by events, but by the way he or she views them. This book describes the clinical guidelines and detailed therapy procedures used in the practice of cognitive behaviour therapy for patients with schizophrenic disorders.
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