We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Error because even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie. In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley’s examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.
This book explains how the computer programs work and why and when they can be applied to problems in toxicology. It discusses the statistical models used and their applications in a general fashion. The book overviews the problems that can arise from the blind use of the statistical models.
The reader will soon find that this is more than a "how-to-do-it" book. It describes a philosophical approach to the use of statistics in the analysis of clinical trials. I have come gradually to the position described here, but I have not come that way alone. This approach is heavily influenced by my reading the papers of R.A. Fisher, F.S. Anscombe, F. Mosteller, and J. Neyman. But the most important influences have been those of my medical colleagues, who had important real-life medical questions that needed to be answered. Statistical methods depend on abstract mathematical theorems and often complicated algorithms on the computer. But these are only a means to an end, because in the end the statistical techniques we apply to clinical studies have to provide useful answers. When I was studying martingales and symbolic logic in graduate school, my wife, Fran, had to be left out of the intellectual excitement. But, as she looked on, she kept asking me how is this knowledge useful. That question, what can you do with this? haunted my studies. When I began working in bio statistics, she continued asking me where it was all going, and I had to explain what I was doing in terms of the practical problems that were being ad dressed.
We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Error because even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie. In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley’s examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.
An insightful, revealing history of the magical mathematics that transformed our world. The Lady Tasting Tea is not a book of dry facts and figures, but the history of great individuals who dared to look at the world in a new way. At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics. The Lady Tasting Tea spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of dozens of men and women which affect our modern everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, David Salsburg traces breakthroughs ranging from the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories to the methods of quality control that rebuilt postwar Japan's economy, including a pivotal early study on the capacity of a small beer cask at the Guinness brewing factory. Brimming with intriguing tidbits and colorful characters, The Lady Tasting Tea salutes the spirit of those who dared to look at the world in a new way.
This book is tailored for the countless individuals entrusted with driving improvement initiatives within their businesses or organizations. This diverse group includes leaders spanning from CEOs to front-line employees. Their responsibilities include a wide spectrum, from formulating and executing strategic plans to seizing incremental improvement opportunities. Within these pages, you will uncover the essential elements necessary for effectively implementing and sustaining improvement efforts across any organizational context. The authors distill years of experience, research, and analysis into five key concepts. These Five Keys empower practitioners to lead with confidence, bridging the gap between common sense and practical application.
Long-term monitoring programs are fundamental to understanding the natural environment and managing major environmental problems. Yet they are often done very poorly and ineffectively. This second edition of the highly acclaimed Effective Ecological Monitoring describes what makes monitoring programs successful and how to ensure that long-term monitoring studies persist. The book has been fully revised and updated but remains concise, illustrating key aspects of effective monitoring with case studies and examples. It includes new sections comparing surveillance-based and question-based monitoring, analysing environmental observation networks, and provides examples of adaptive monitoring. Based on the authors’ 80 years of collective experience in running long-term research and monitoring programs, Effective Ecological Monitoring is a valuable resource for the natural resource management, ecological and environmental science and policy communities.
This classic book marks the beginning of an era of vigorous mathematical progress in equilibrium statistical mechanics. Its treatment of the infinite system limit has not been superseded, and the discussion of thermodynamic functions and states remains basic for more recent work. The conceptual foundation provided by the Rigorous Results remains invaluable for the study of the spectacular developments of statistical mechanics in the second half of the 20th century.
An insightful, revealing history of the magical mathematics that transformed our world. The Lady Tasting Tea is not a book of dry facts and figures, but the history of great individuals who dared to look at the world in a new way. At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics. The Lady Tasting Tea spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of dozens of men and women which affect our modern everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, David Salsburg traces breakthroughs ranging from the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories to the methods of quality control that rebuilt postwar Japan's economy, including a pivotal early study on the capacity of a small beer cask at the Guinness brewing factory. Brimming with intriguing tidbits and colorful characters, The Lady Tasting Tea salutes the spirit of those who dared to look at the world in a new way.
This text on logistic regression methods contains the following eight chapters: 1 Introduction to Logistic Regression 2 Important Special Cases of the Logistic Model 3 Computing the Odds Ratio in Logistic Regression 4 Maximum Likelihood Techniques: An Overview 5 Statistical Inferences Using Maximum Likelihood Techniques 6 Modeling Strategy Guidelines 7 Modeling Strategy for Assessing Interaction and Confounding 8 Analysis of Matched Data Using Logistic Regression Each chapter contains a presentation of its topic in "lecture-book" format together with objectives, an outline, key formulae, practice exercises, and a test. The "lecture-book" has a sequence of illustrations and formulae in the left column of each page and a script in the right column. This format allows you to read the script in conjunction with the illustrations and formulae that high light the main points, formulae, or examples being presented. The reader mayaiso purchase directly from the author audio-cassette tapes of each chapter. If you purchase the tapes, you may use the tape with the illustrations and formulae, ignoring the script. The use of the audiotape with the illustrations and formulae is intended to be similar to a lecture. An audio cassette player is the only equipment required. Tapes may be obtained by writing or calling the author at the following address: Depart ment of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Emory University, 1599 Clifton Rd. N. E. , Atlanta, GA 30333, phone (404) 727-9667. This text is intended for self-study.
Presents the findings of a study of start-up factories in the United States by Japanese companies. Discusses the quality of jobs these factories produce and reveals their keys to success in achieving a strong competitive advantage. Gives the four inter-related strategies ( high performance management strategy, the economics of efficient wages, the quality of technology plants and regional economic development) that make for successful, high performance factories.
The goal of putting `systems on a chip' has been a difficult challenge that is only recently being met. Since the world is `analog', putting systems on a chip requires putting analog interfaces on the same chip as digital processing functions. Since some processing functions are accomplished more efficiently in analog circuitry, chips with a large amount of analog and digital circuitry are being designed. Whether a small amount of analog circuitry is combined with varying amounts of digital circuitry or the other way around, the problem encountered in marrying analog and digital circuitry are the same but with different scope. Some of the most prevalent problems are chip/package capacitive and inductive coupling, ringing on the RLC tuned circuits that form the chip/package power supply rails and off-chip drivers and receivers, coupling between circuits through the chip substrate bulk, and radiated emissions from the chip/package interconnects. To aggravate the problems of designers who have to deal with the complexity of mixed-signal coupling there is a lack of verification techniques to simulate the problem. In addition to considering RLC models for the various chip/package/board level parasitics, mixed-signal circuit designers must also model coupling through the common substrate when simulating ICs to obtain an accurate estimate of coupled noise in their designs. Unfortunately, accurate simulation of substrate coupling has only recently begun to receive attention, and techniques for the same are not widely known. Simulation Techniques and Solutions for Mixed-Signal Coupling in Integrated Circuits addresses two major issues of the mixed-signal coupling problem -- how to simulate it and how to overcome it. It identifies some of the problems that will be encountered, gives examples of actual hardware experiences, offers simulation techniques, and suggests possible solutions. Readers of this book should come away with a clear directive to simulate their design for interactions prior to building the design, versus a `build it and see' mentality.
Never has the world been as rich in scientific knowledge as it is today. But what are its main sources? In accessible and engaging fashion, Global Mega-Science examines the origins of this unprecedented growth of knowledge production over the past hundred and twenty years. David P. Baker and Justin J.W. Powell integrate sociological and historical approaches with unique scientometric data to argue that at the heart of this phenomenon is the unparalleled cultural success of universities and their connection to science: the university-science model. Considering why science is so deeply linked to (higher) educational development, the authors analyze the accumulation of capacity to produce research—and demonstrate how the university facilitates the emerging knowledge society. The age of global mega-science was built on the symbiotic relationship between higher education and science, especially the worldwide research collaborations among networked university-based scientists. These relationships are key for scholars and citizens to understand the past, future, and sustainability of science.
Since publication of the first edition in 1982, David Williamson's The Third Reich has become established as one of the most successful books in the Seminar Studies in History series. The author draws on up-to-date scholarship to guide students through the maze of historical controversies concerning the Third Reich and to offer a comprehensive analysis of the key issues of the period. In a clear and accessible manner, the new edition provides chapters that: introduce readers to the historiography of the Third Reich analyse the reasons for Hitler's rise to power look at how the Nazi regime consolidated it's grip on power during the period March 1933- August 1934 explain how Nazi Germany was governed and discuss to what extent Hitler can be viewed as a 'weak dictator' analyse Hitler's economic, foreign and social policies in both war and peace up to 1945, as well as the development of Nazi racial and eugenic policies. The analysis of these themes is backed up with an increased selection of documents, which enable students to discuss the key issues more fully. Providing a concise but comprehensive account of the origins, course and downfall of the Third Reich, this new edition of an already classic text will be an invaluable introduction to the subject for students.
Repeated measures data arise when the same characteristic is measured on each case or subject at several times or under several conditions. There is a multitude of techniques available for analysing such data and in the past this has led to some confusion. This book describes the whole spectrum of approaches, beginning with very simple and crude methods, working through intermediate techniques commonly used by consultant statisticians, and concluding with more recent and advanced methods. Those covered include multiple testing, response feature analysis, univariate analysis of variance approaches, multivariate analysis of variance approaches, regression models, two-stage line models, approaches to categorical data and techniques for analysing crossover designs. The theory is illustrated with examples, using real data brought to the authors during their work as statistical consultants.
Accidental P.I. takes you on a thrill ride following the fifty-year professional career of Private Investigator David Watts, as his life story treats you to these experiences and more. From murder, rioting, gambling and drug raids to sex cases, and fraud, this behind-the-scenes peek at real-life cases shows how investigators get the job donenot like in the movies or on television.
Jekel's Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Preventive Medicine, and Public Health is the only textbook that combines the disciplines of medical epidemiology, biostatistics, preventive medicine, and public health in one convenient resource. Written by renowned epidemiologists and public health experts, this text presents the information you need with a clinical focus, using real-life medical examples throughout. With review questions in each chapter to maximize knowledge retention and target key areas of review, it serves as an outstanding resource for USMLE prep - and is recommended by the American Board of Preventive Medicine as a top review source for its core specialty examination! Grasp and retain vital information easily thanks to quick-reference boxes that showcase key concepts and calculations; succinct text; and dynamic illustrations that facilitate learning in a highly visual approach. Spend more time reviewing and less time searching thanks to an extremely focused, "high-yield" presentation. Deepen your understanding of complex epidemiology and biostatistics concepts through clinically focused, real-life examples. Gauge your mastery of public health concepts and build confidence with case-based questions - now accessed online for a more interactive experience - that provide effective chapter review and help you target key areas for further study. Keep up with the very latest in public health and preventive health - areas that have shown great growth in recent years. New coverage includes the epidemiology of mental health disorders, disaster planning, health care reform, and the 'One Health' concept that highlights the indelible links among the health of people, other species, and the planet itself. Access the complete contents online at Student Consult, plus additional tables and images, supplemental information on the One Health Initiative, the latest childhood immunization schedules, chapter highlights in PowerPoint, 300 multiple-choice chapter review questions and answers, a 177-question comprehensive review exam, and more!
An accessible and comprehensive resource, this volume details the structure and logic of EU environmental law and enables readers to quickly gain a thorough understanding of the different areas of EU secondary law pertaining to the protection of the environment.
Elias effectively raises to consciousness our deepest fear - the self-destruction of the species - and our terror at military power. Instead of Apocalypse, he proposes ecstasy. Instead of missiles in their silos.... "Make love, not war." The deeply human and sensual depiction of sexuality is a perfect counterpoint, an antidote, to the cold diction of nuclear discourse.
A straightforward and easy-to-follow introduction to the main concepts and techniques of the subject. It is based on numerous courses given by the author to students and researchers in the health sciences and is written with such readers in mind. A "user-friendly" layout includes numerous illustrations and exercises and the book is written in such a way so as to enable readers learn directly without the assistance of a classroom instructor. Throughout, there is an emphasis on presenting each new topic backed by real examples of a survival analysis investigation, followed up with thorough analyses of real data sets. Each chapter concludes with practice exercises to help readers reinforce their understanding of the concepts covered, before going on to a more comprehensive test. Answers to both are included. Readers will enjoy David Kleinbaums style of presentation, making this an excellent introduction for all those coming to the subject for the first time.
Succinct yet thorough, Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Preventive Medicine, 3rd Edition brings you today's best knowledge on epidemiology, biostatistics, preventive medicine, and public health—in one convenient source. You'll find the latest on healthcare policy and financing · infectious diseases · chronic disease · and disease prevention technology. This text also serves as an outstanding resource for preparing for the USMLE, and the American Board of Preventive Medicine recommends it as a top review source for its core specialty examination. Discusses the financial concerns and the use and limitations of screening in the prevention of symptomatic disease. Emphasizes the application of epidemiologic and biostatistical concepts to everyday clinical problem solving and decision making. Showcases important concepts and calculations inside quick-reference boxes. Presents abundant illustrations and well-organized tables to clarify and summarize complex concepts. Includes 350 USMLE-style questions and answers, complete with detailed explanations about why various choices are correct or incorrect. This book comes with STUDENT CONSULT at no extra charge! Register at www.studentconsult.com today...so you can learn and study more powerfully than ever before! Access the complete contents of the book online, anywhere you go...perform quick searches...and add your own notes and bookmarks. Follow Integration Links to related bonus content from other STUDENT CONSULT titles—to help you see the connections between diverse disciplines. Reference all other STUDENT CONSULT titles you own online, too—all in one place!Look for the STUDENT CONSULT logo on your favorite Elsevier textbooks! Includes the latest information on Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) · SARS · avian form of H5N1 influenza · the obesity epidemic · and more.
Succinct yet thorough, Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Preventive Medicine, 3rd Edition brings you today's best knowledge on epidemiology, biostatistics, preventive medicine, and public health-in one convenient source. You'll find the latest on healthcare policy and financing · infectious diseases · chronic disease · and disease prevention technology. This text also serves as an outstanding resource for preparing for the USMLE, and the American Board of Preventive Medicine recommends it as a top review source for its core specialty examination. Discusses the financial concerns and the use and limitations of screening in the prevention of symptomatic disease. Emphasizes the application of epidemiologic and biostatistical concepts to everyday clinical problem solving and decision making. Showcases important concepts and calculations inside quick-reference boxes. Presents abundant illustrations and well-organized tables to clarify and summarize complex concepts. Includes 350 USMLE-style questions and answers, complete with detailed explanations about why various choices are correct or incorrect. Includes the latest information on Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) · SARS · avian form of H5N1 influenza · the obesity epidemic · and more.
First Published in 1986, this two-volume set explores the methods of toxicological risk assessment. Carefully compiled and filled with a vast repertoire of notes, diagrams, and references this book serves as a useful reference for toxicologists and other practitioners in their respective fields.
Chemical Induction of Cancer: Structural Bases and Biological Mechanisms, Volume IIIC: Natural, Metal, Fiber, and Macromolecular Carcinogens covers structure-carcinogenicity relationships of carcinogenic mycotoxins, carcinogenic substances generated by plants, carcinogenic metals and metalloids, and foreign-body carcinogens. The book discusses the metabolism and mechanism of carcinogenic action, physicochemical properties, other biological activities (principally mutagenicity and teratogenicity), modification of carcinogenic activity, formation and environmental significance. The text also describes the carcinogenic water-soluble high polymers and explores the intriguing problems of the carcinogenic effect of osmotic imbalance in tissue microenvironment, as well as of spontaneous malignant transformation occurring in cell cultures in vitro. Studies on tumor induction and carcinogenesis modification by nonviral nucleic acids, by nucleases, proteases, histones, and by antigenic stimulation as well as by antibodies are also considered. The book further tackles tumor-released factors as possible modifiers of carcinogenesis. The text will prove invaluable to chemists and people involved in cancer research.
Engine Testing: Electrical, Hybrid, IC Engine and Power Storage Testing and Test Facilities, Fifth Edition covers the requirements of test facilities dealing with e-vehicle systems and different configurations and operations. Chapters dealing with the rigging and operation of Units Under Test (UUT) are updated to include electric motor-based systems, test cell services and thermo-dynamics. Control module and system testing using advanced, in-the-Loop (XiL) methods are described, including powertrain component integrated simulation and testing. All other chapters dealing with test cell design, installation, safety and use together with the cell support systems in IC engine testing are updated to reflect current developments and research. - Covers multiple technical disciplines for anyone required to design, modify or operate an automotive powertrain test facility - Provides tactics on the development of electrical and hybrid powertrains and energy storage systems - Presents coverage of the housing and testing of automotive battery systems in addition to the use of 'virtual' testing in the form of "x-in-the-loop' throughout the powertrain's development and test life
Confused by the Odds will change the way you think about financial assets, the risks of the next global nuclear war, racial bias in policing, the role of genetics in intelligence, and medical tests. You will learn how to ignore flawed assumptions about the normal distribution of returns from investing in stocks and bitcoin. You will come away with a better understanding of the “Long Peace”—the last three-quarters of a century without a global war—and how it does not necessary bode well for the future. You’ll learn that randomized control experiments, the basis for much of science today, are not the gold standard of proof that most believe them to be and why they are part of the reason for the replicability crisis in science today. You’ll see how the US Navy searches for lost submarines and spam filters identify junk mail. You’ll understand how Democrats and Republicans come to dramatically different conclusions about everything from the outcome of the 2020 election to COVID-19. Confused by the Odds will give you the knowledge and tools to avoid being misled by probability. Many books have been published on probability laden with dense formula and proofs. This is not one of them. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, presents intuitive explanations of the application of probability to practical, everyday problems—without all the equations. Through real-world examples, this book shows us how to never again be confused by the odds.
Prescription drugs are a basic and invaluable part of society today, but there is debate surrounding the methods of testing new drugs, the possible misuse of prescription drugs, and the economics of drug production and use. This book examines the evolution of prescription drugs in the United States, as well as the formation of the pharmaceutical industry. It begins with a history of prescription drugs, dating back to their origins, then moves through the Industrial Revolution and into the present day. It also delves into the issues and controversies related to prescription drugs, such as drug costs, regulations, prescription drug abuse, insurance complications, and more. Both implemented and proposed solutions are also discussed. One of the most valuable aspects of the book is that it surveys the history of prescription drugs in a manner that helps the reader identify key issues in an easy-to-understand fashion. Finally, the perspectives chapter allows a broad range of voices to be heard, allowing crucial, diverse perspectives to round out the author's expertise.
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