We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Error because even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie. In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley’s examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.
This book explains how the computer programs work and why and when they can be applied to problems in toxicology. It discusses the statistical models used and their applications in a general fashion. The book overviews the problems that can arise from the blind use of the statistical models.
The reader will soon find that this is more than a "how-to-do-it" book. It describes a philosophical approach to the use of statistics in the analysis of clinical trials. I have come gradually to the position described here, but I have not come that way alone. This approach is heavily influenced by my reading the papers of R.A. Fisher, F.S. Anscombe, F. Mosteller, and J. Neyman. But the most important influences have been those of my medical colleagues, who had important real-life medical questions that needed to be answered. Statistical methods depend on abstract mathematical theorems and often complicated algorithms on the computer. But these are only a means to an end, because in the end the statistical techniques we apply to clinical studies have to provide useful answers. When I was studying martingales and symbolic logic in graduate school, my wife, Fran, had to be left out of the intellectual excitement. But, as she looked on, she kept asking me how is this knowledge useful. That question, what can you do with this? haunted my studies. When I began working in bio statistics, she continued asking me where it was all going, and I had to explain what I was doing in terms of the practical problems that were being ad dressed.
This concise, easy-to-follow book stimulates interest and develops proficiency in statisticalanalysis. Packed full of helpful exercises-covering a wide variety of conditions,random patterns, and simple models-Understanding Randomness presents a logical sequenceof study, through practice in interpreting random noise before progressing on toreal life problems ... demonstrates proper applications of numerous techniques throughworked out problems ... facilitates further work in statistics, keyed to standard references. . . and strengthens experience with unexpected results-fundamental for workingwith random events.Understanding Randomness serves as vital supplementary reading for both graduate andundergraduate students of statistics-with a standard statistics course as a prerequisiteandas a primary source for exercises in statistics laboratories. Moreover, it is importantfor industrial and mathematical training courses and society or association seminars, aswell as an invaluable workbook for statisticians, biostatisticians, biometricians, socialscientists concerned with improving their data analysis techniques-or anyone dealingwith evaluation of experimental data!
An insightful, revealing history of the magical mathematics that transformed our world. The Lady Tasting Tea is not a book of dry facts and figures, but the history of great individuals who dared to look at the world in a new way. At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics. The Lady Tasting Tea spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of dozens of men and women which affect our modern everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, David Salsburg traces breakthroughs ranging from the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories to the methods of quality control that rebuilt postwar Japan's economy, including a pivotal early study on the capacity of a small beer cask at the Guinness brewing factory. Brimming with intriguing tidbits and colorful characters, The Lady Tasting Tea salutes the spirit of those who dared to look at the world in a new way.
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