Fooled by the Winners will change the way you think about the stock market, health care, global warming, diets, lotteries, restaurants, and your siblings. It will reshape your perspective of the past and give you a clearer view of the future. Fooled by the Winners is a book about survivor bias, the cognitive error of focusing on the winners, the successes, and the living. But in many instances, we can learn more from those who have lost, failed, or died. After reading this book, you will understand how survivor bias is often used to deceive us. You will learn how to stop paying for financial services that promise more than they deliver, for health care that doesn’t make us healthier, for diets that don’t make us slimmer, and for advice books that don’t offer good advice. You will also come away with a different view of our past, including our perilous evolutionary journey and how history has often been written by the winners. You will come to understand how we are fooled by the winners in warfare, such as in the deployment of nuclear weapons and the most famous example of survivor bias—the missing Allied bombers of WWII. Previous studies of survivor bias have been inaccessible to most, housed in formula-laden statistical journals. But you won’t find any math or technical jargon here. David Lockwood, a former member of the faculty of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University, applies the concept of survivor bias to specific, real-world examples—minus the equations. Through compelling analysis and the real-life stories, this book demonstrates the deceptive influence of survivor bias in our daily lives and on our thinking.
From the visionary rebellion of Easy Rider to the reinvention of home in The Straight Story, the road movie has emerged as a significant film genre since the late 1960s, able to cut across a wide variety of film styles and contexts. Yet, within the variety, a certain generic core remains constant: the journey as cultural critique, as exploration beyond society and within oneself. This book traces the generic evolution of the road movie with respect to its diverse presentations, emphasizing it as an "independent genre" that attempts to incorporate marginality and subversion on many levels. David Laderman begins by identifying the road movie's defining features and by establishing the literary, classical Hollywood, and 1950s highway culture antecedents that formatively influenced it. He then traces the historical and aesthetic evolution of the road movie decade by decade through detailed and lively discussions of key films. Laderman concludes with a look at the European road movie, from the late 1950s auteurs through Godard and Wenders, and at compelling feminist road movies of the 1980s and 1990s.
For over a century, Italy has had a love affair with the cigarette. Perhaps no consumer item better symbolizes the economic, political, social, and cultural dimensions of contemporary Italian history. Starting around 1900, the new and popular cigarette spread down the social hierarchy and eventually, during the 1960s, across the gender divide. For much of the century, cigarette consumption was an index of economic well-being and of modernism. Only at the end of the century did its meaning change as Italy achieved economic parity with other Western powers and entered into the antismoking era. Drawing on film, literature, and the popular press, Carl Ipsen offers a view of the "cigarette century" in Italy, from the 1870s to the ban on public smoking in 2005. He traces important links between smoking and imperialism, world wars, Fascism, and the protest movements of the 1970s. In considering this grand survey of the cigarette, Fumo tells a much larger story about the socio-economic history of a society known for its casual attitude toward risk and a penchant for la dolce vita.
Virtual Humans provides a much-needed definition of what constitutes a ‘virtual human’ and places virtual humans within the wider context of Artificial Intelligence development. It explores the technical approaches to creating a virtual human, as well as emergent issues such as embodiment, identity, agency and digital immortality, and the resulting ethical challenges. The book presents an overview of current research and practice in this area, and outlines the major challenges faced by today’s developers and researchers. The book examines the possibility for using virtual humans in a variety of roles, from personal assistants to teaching, coaching and knowledge management, and the book situates these discussions around familiar applications (e.g. Siri, Cortana, Alexa) and the portrayal of virtual humans within Science Fiction. Features Presents a comprehensive overview of this rapidly developing field Provides an array of relevant, real-life examples from expert practitioners and researchers from around the globe in how to create the avatar body, mind, senses and ability to communicate Intends to be broad in scope yet practical in approach, so that it can serve the needs of several different audiences, including researchers, teachers, developers and anyone with an interest in where these technologies might take us Covers a wide variety of issues which have been neglected in other research texts; for example, definitions and taxonomies, the ethical challenges of virtual humans and issues around digital immortality Includes numerous examples and extensive references
Otto Preminger said the history of the cinema was divided into two eras: one before and one after Rome Open City (Roma Città Aperta, 1945). The film is based on events that took place in Rome in 1944, during the Nazi occupation. This book re-examines the film and its place in Rossellini's career. David Forgacs reconstructs its production history, its relationship to the events that inspired it and the time in which it was made. He argues that the traditional critical labelling of Rome Open City as the original work of neo-realism fails to capture the film's hybrid and contradictory character. Part documentary record, part patriotic myth, Rome Open City is at once an extraordinarily powerful commemoration of wartime experience and a rhetorical reworking of that experience, using stereotypes and moral polarisations.
How many Zavattinis are there? During a life spanning most of the twentieth century, the screenwriter who wrote Sciuscià, Bicycle Thieves, Miracle in Milan, and Umberto D. was also a pioneering magazine publisher in 1930s Milan, a public intellectual, a theorist, a tireless campaigner for change within the film industry, a man of letters, a painter and a poet. This intellectual biography is built on the premise that in order to understand Zavattini's idea of cinema and his legacy of ethical and political cinema (including guerrilla cinema), we must also tease out the multi-faceted strands of his interventions and their interplay over time. The book is for general readers, students and film historians, and anyone with an interest in cinema and its fate.
The standard reference in the field, this acclaimed work synthesizes findings from hundreds of carefully selected studies of mental health treatments for children and adolescents. Chapters on frequently encountered clinical problems systematically review the available data, identify gaps in what is known, and spell out recommendations for evidence-based practice. The authors draw on extensive clinical experience as well as research expertise. Showcasing the most effective psychosocial and pharmacological interventions for young patients, they also address challenges in translating research into real-world clinical practice. New to This Edition *Incorporates over a decade of research advances and evolving models of evidence-based care. *New chapter topic: child maltreatment. *Separate chapters on self-injurious behavior, eating disorders, and substance use disorders (previously covered in a single chapter on self-harming disorders). *Expanded chapters on depression, anxiety, and conduct disorder. *Includes reviews of the burgeoning range of manualized psychosocial "treatment packages" for children.
Faced with the challenge of studying EU law, students and other interested parties need guidance and accessible materials. Despite the ground clearing of the Lisbon Treaty, the terrain is still not properly mapped. Edward and Lane's completely rewritten book provides just what's needed. Clear, comprehensible and comprehensive, it will be an important port of call for anyone trying to figure out key aspects of the EU's ever burgeoning legal order.' - Jo Shaw, University of Edinburgh, UK A comprehensively updated and expanded new edition of a classic text, this authoritative volume provides expert analysis on the key issues across all areas of European Union law - including its constitutional, procedural and substantive aspects. Importantly, the book incorporates the Treaty of Lisbon reorientation and immediate post-Lisbon developments. Throughout the book there is extensive reference to primary sources (Treaty, legislation, case law) and to issues of national adaptation which, together, bring a depth of understanding and analysis to this increasingly complex discipline.
Classic monograph covers sets and maps, monoids and groups, unique factorization domains, localization and tensor products, applications of fundamental theorem, algebraic field extension, Dedekind domains, and much more. 1974 edition.
This book covers the latest global technical initiatives in the rapidly progressing area of gasoline direct injection (GDI), spark-ignited gasoline engines and examines the contribution of each process and sub-system to the efficiency of the overall system. Including discussions, data, and figures from many technical papers and proceedings that are not available in the English language, Automotive Gasoline Direct Injection Systems will prove to be an invaluable desk reference for any GDI subject or direct-injection subsystem that is being developed worldwide.
As the first book-length exploration of internationally distributed, multi-director episode films, Omnibus Films fills a considerable gap in the history of world cinema and aims to expand contemporary understandings of authorship, genre, narra
The largest seaweed, giant kelp (Macrocystis) is the fastest growing and most prolific of all plants found on earth. Growing from the seafloor and extending along the ocean surface in lush canopies, giant kelp provides an extensive vertical habitat in a largely two-dimensional seascape. It is the foundation for one of the most species-rich, productive, and widely distributed ecological communities in the world. Schiel and Foster’s scholarly review and synthesis take the reader from Darwin’s early observations to contemporary research, providing a historical perspective for the modern understanding of giant kelp evolution, biogeography, biology, and physiology. The authors furnish a comprehensive discussion of kelp species and forest ecology worldwide, with considerations of human uses and abuses, management and conservation, and the current and likely future impacts of global change. This volume promises to be the definitive treatise and reference on giant kelp and its forests for many years, and it will appeal to marine scientists and others who want a better appreciation and understanding of these wondrous forests of the sea.
What happens when operas that are comfortably ensconced in the canon are thoroughly rethought and radically recast on stage? What does a staging do to our understanding of an opera, and of opera generally? While a stage production can disrupt a work that was thought to be established, David J. Levin here argues that the genre of opera is itself unsettled, and that the performance of operas, at its best, clarifies this condition by bringing opera’s restlessness and volatility to life. Unsettling Opera explores a variety of fields, considering questions of operatic textuality, dramaturgical practice, and performance theory. Levin opens with a brief history of opera production, opera studies, and dramatic composition, and goes on to consider in detail various productions of the works of Wagner, Mozart, Verdi, and Alexander Zemlinsky. Ultimately, the book seeks to initiate a dialogue between scholars of music, literature, and performance by addressing questions raised in each field in a manner that influences them all.
Mystery surrounds the death of Queen Victoria's grandson England, 1892. Victoria, Queen and Empress, is in the 54th year of her reign, when her grandson Prince Eddy, eldest son of the Prince of Wales, is found slaughtered in his bed at Sandringham. Terrified of more royal scandal, the Prince of Wales and his spindoctors decide to cover up the facts and the murder is disguised as death by influenza. Lord Francis Powerscourt, an Irish investigator, is privately asked to find the killer. His quest takes him on a journey through the prince's debauched and dissolute past, across Europe to the misty waterways of Venice where, amidst scandal and suicide, Powerscourt finally unravels themystery of the sweet prince's last goodnight. PRAISE FOR THE BOOK " 'In this excellent novel, Dickinson weaves a tale of blackmail and murder among the royals late in Victoria's reign& [his] knowledge of the arts, history and literature is nothing if not exhaustive, and adds enormously to the overall background& One hopes to see more of Lord Powerscourt and his friends in the near future.' - Publishers Weekly " 'This is detective fiction in the grand style; the characters and the plot soar upwards and carry us in their wake. Powerscourt's debut in this intoxicating book is the start of a gilded life in the archives of crime.' - James Naughtie
The Lion Wakes tells the modern story of HSBC, starting in the late 1970s, when the bank first broke out of the Asia-Pacific region with its purchase of Marine Midland Bank in the US. It follows HSBC's battle to purchase Midland Bank in 1992, the subsequent move of head office from Hong Kong to London, and the string of acquisitions that brought the bank to its pre-eminent place in global finance today. Acclaimed historians Richard Roberts and David Kynaston chronicle the bank's struggles as well as its successes: the last part of the book deals with the ill-fated move into consumer finance in the US, as well as the financial crisis of 2008 and its effect on HSBC. Impeccably researched and generously illustrated from the HSBC archives, this is a valuable addition to global financial history.
Elizabeth David's Italian Food was one of the first books to demonstrate the enormous range of Italy's regional cooking. For the foods of Italy, explained David, expanded far beyond minestrone and ravioli, to the complex traditions of Tuscany, Sicily, Lombardy, Umbria, and many other regions. David imparts her knowledge from her many years in Italy, exploring, researching, tasting and testing dishes. Her passion for real food, luscious, hearty, fresh, and totally authentic, will inspire anyone who wishes to recreate the abundant and highly unique regional dishes of Italy. For more than seventy years, Penguin has been the leading publisher of classic literature in the English-speaking world. With more than 1,700 titles, Penguin Classics represents a global bookshelf of the best works throughout history and across genres and disciplines. Readers trust the series to provide authoritative texts enhanced by introductions and notes by distinguished scholars and contemporary authors, as well as up-to-date translations by award-winning translators.
René Descartes (1596–1650) is well-known for his introspective turn away from sensible bodies and toward non-sensory ideas of mind, body, and God. Such a turn is appropriate, Descartes supposes, but only once in the course of life, and only to arrive at a more accurate picture of reality that we then incorporate in everyday embodied life. In this clear and engaging book David Cunning introduces and examines the full range of Descartes’ philosophy. A central focus of the book is Descartes’ view that embodied human beings become more perfect to the degree that they move in the direction of finite approximations of independence, activity, immutability, and increased knowledge. Beginning with an introduction and a chapter on Descartes’ life and works, Cunning also addresses the following key topics: Descartes on the wonders of the material universe skepticism as epistemic garbage, and the easy dissolution of hyperbolic doubt Descartes’ three arguments for the existence of God the ontology of possibility and necessity freedom and embodiment arguments for the immateriality of mind sensible bodies and the pragmatic certainty by which to navigate them Descartes’ stoic view on how best to live. Descartes is an outstanding introduction to one of the greatest of Western philosophers. Including a chronology, suggestions for further reading, and a glossary of key terms, it is essential reading for anyone studying Descartes and the history of modern philosophy.
Fraud is nothing new to the merchant. Since the beginning of time, man has always looked for the opportunity to defraud others - to gain goods or services without making payment. For the credit card industry, fraud is a part of doing business, and is something that is always a challenge. The merchants that are the best at preventing fraud are the ones that can adapt to change quickly. This book is written to provide information about how to prevent credit card fraud in the card-not-present space (mail order, telephone order, e-commerce). This book is meant to be an introduction to combating fraud, providing the basic concepts around credit card payment, the ways fraud is perpetrated, along with write ups that define and provide best practices on the use of 32 fraud-prevention techniques. 32 Detailed Fraud Prevention Techniques How to catch the Chameleon on the web Top 10 rules to prevent credit card fraud Understand common fraud schemes The one Fraud Prevention Technique no merchant can afford not to do Details on over 40 Vendors that sell fraud prevention tools and services, along with how to build it in-house Learn the anatomy of a Fraud Prevention Strategy
Using an integrated philosophical and historical approach, this book explores the fundamental shift in understandings of space in the scientific revolution.
As news reports of the horrific December 2004 tsunami in Asia reached the rest of the world, commentators were quick to seize upon the disaster as proof of either God s power or God s nonexistence, asking over and over, How could a good and loving God if such exists allow such suffering? In The Doors of the Sea David Bentley Hart speaks at once to those skeptical of Christian faith and to those who use their Christian faith to rationalize senseless human suffering. He calls both to recognize in the worst catastrophes not the providential will of God but rather the ongoing struggle between the rebellious powers that enslave the world and the God who loves it wholly.
A chronicle of the beloved base ingredient, from its origins, agricultural riches, and controversy to the passion, pride, and nostalgia it inspires today. Over time, the tomato has embodied a range of values and meanings. From its domestication in Central America, it has traveled back and forth across the Atlantic, powering a story of aspiration and growth, agriculture and industry, class and identity, and global transition. In this entertaining, organic history, David Gentilcore recounts the surprising rise of the tomato from its New World origin to its Old World significance. From its inauspicious introduction into Renaissance Europe, the tomato came to dominate Italian cuisine and the food industry over the course of three centuries. Gentilcore explores why elite and peasant cultures took so long to assimilate the tomato into Italian cooking and how it eventually triumphed. He traces the tomato's appearance in medical and agricultural treatises, travel narratives, family recipe books, kitchen accounts, and Italian art, literature, and film. He focuses on Italy's fascination with the tomato, painting a larger portrait of changing trends and habits that began with botanical practices in the sixteenth century and attitudes toward vegetables in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, and concluded with the emergence of factory production in the nineteenth. Gentilcore continues with the transformation of the tomato into a national symbol during the years of Italian immigration and Fascism and examines the planetary success of the "Italian" tomato today. “Those with an interest in tomatoes, Italian life, or just cultural history in general may find this both enlightening and entertaining.” —Diane Leach, PopMatters
Completely revised and updated for Logic Pro X, this Apple-certified guide shows you how to record, produce, and polish music files with Apple’s professional audio software. Veteran music producer David Nahmani’s step-by-step, instructions teach you everything from basic music creation to advanced production techniques using Logic’s software synthesizers, samplers, and digital signal processors. Learn about all of the key features in Logic Pro X including Flex Pitch, Drummer, Drum Kit Designer, Track Stacks, MIDI Effects, and more. Using the book’s online files and Logic Pro X, you’ll begin making music in the first lesson. Whether you’re looking to use your computer as a digital recording studio, create musical compositions, or transfer that song in your head into music you can share, this comprehensive book will show you how. Lesson and media files available online Focused lessons take you step-by-step through professional, real-world projects Accessible writing style puts an expert instructor at your side Ample illustrations and keyboard shortcuts help you master techniques fast Lesson goals and time estimates help you plan your time Chapter review questions summarize what you’ve learned and prepare you for the Apple Certifi ed Pro Exam
Chevy’s Corvette is without question one of the most recognized sports cars in the world. Since its introduction at GM’s Motorama, Corvettes have been favorites for fans and drivers in a wide variety of racing venues, including endurance events, hillclimbs, Trans-Am, drag racing, and GT Racing. For six decades, Corvettes have battled and defeated some of the the biggest names in the sports car world—Ferrari, Porsche, Cobra, Jaguar—at storied road courses like Le Mans, Daytona, the Nürburgring, Sebring, and Laguna Seca.Beginning with the Real McCoy, a Zora Arkus-Duntov special raced at Sebring in 1956, this book draws on the history of factory-sponsored and private racing efforts, chronicling the history of the various Vettes that have been put to the test as racing machines. Noted automotive writer and renowned artist David Kimble delves deep into Vette’s on-track history to provide the most thorough Corvette racing history ever published. Corvette Racing is illustrated with rare images from GM’s media and design archives and complemented by Kimble’s own stunning cutaway artwork. For Corvette and racing fans, this book is the definitive word on Corvette’s nearly 60 years of competition.
From “one of the most fascinating and thought-provoking writers of natural history” (The Seattle Times), a collection of enduring essays that form a bestiary of wondrous creatures and a gallery of the human faces that peer at them. The Boilerplate Rhino brings together twenty-six of David Quammen’s most thoughtful and engaging essays from his column for Outside magazine, gifting readers with an irrepressible assortment of ideas to explore, conundrums to contemplate, and wondrous creatures to behold. In lucid, penetrating, and often quirkily idiosyncratic prose, David Quammen takes his readers with him as he explores the world. His travels lead him to rattlesnake handlers in Texas; a lizard specialist in Baja; the dinosaur museum in Jordan, Montana; and halfway across Indonesia in search of the perfect Durian fruit. He ponders the history of nutmeg in the southern Moluccas, meditates on bioluminescent beetles while soaking in the waters of the Amazon, and delivers “The Dope on Eggs” from a chicken ranch near his hometown in Montana. Quammen's travels are always jumping-off points to explore the rich and sometimes horrifying tension between humankind and the natural world, in all its complexity and ambivalence. The result is another irrepressible assortment of ideas to explore, conundrums to contemplate, and wondrous creatures to behold.
First published in 2002, this is a comprehensive grammatical documentation of Kham, a previously undescribed language from west-central Nepal, belonging to the Tibeto-Burman language family. The language contains a number of grammatical systems that are of immediate relevance to current work on linguistic theory, including split ergativity, a mirative system, and a rich class of derived adjectivals. Its verb morphology has implications for the understanding of the history of the entire Tibeto-Burman family. The book, based on extensive fieldwork, deals with all major aspects of the language including segmental phonology, tone, word classes, noun phrases, nominalizations, transitivity alterations, tense-aspect-modality, non-declarative speech acts, and complex sentence structure. It provides copious examples throughout the exposition and includes three short native texts and a vocabulary of more than 400 words, many of them reconstructed for Proto-Kham and Proto-Tibeto-Burman.
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